The Political Economy of a Cyprus Settlement: The Examination of Four Scenaria Andreas Theophanous Conventional orthodoxy in relation to a possible

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1 Understanding and Evaluating the European Union Theoretical and Empirical Approaches Edited by Stelios Stavridis This volume offer s a snapshot of the EU in It contains a varied number of rich contributions that come from different academic perspectives and methodological approaches ranging from integration theory, to comparative politics, to international relations, to political economy, and to law. They all show how complex and difficult, but at the same time how challenging and necessary, it is to try and explain, understand, interpret and evaluate the European Union. Many chapters were initially presented to the April st Spring School on the EU organised by the University of Nicosia (then Intercollege) Turkey and Europe High stakes Uncertain Prospects Edited by James Sperling, S. Victor Papacosma and Andreas Theophanous The book assesses the political, economic, and strategic consequences of the prospective Turkish accession to the European Union. The EU decision to begin accession negotiations with Turkey pushed a number of issues to the forefront previously suppressed by the expectation that Turkish accession was an offer that could be (or should be) delayed into the distant future. This collection of essays is divided into four sections that assess the historical and security contexts that provide rationales for including and excluding Turkey from the EU as a full member, the domestic impact of EU accession on Turkish society and constitutional system, the external consequences of Turkish accession for the economies and societies of current EU member states, and a final section devoted to the complex web of bilateral relationships that pushes Turkey simultaneously towards and away from Europe

2 The Political Economy of a Cyprus Settlement: The Examination of Four Scenaria Andreas Theophanous Conventional orthodoxy in relation to a possible solution of the Cyprus problem has revolved in the last forty years around the concept of a bizonal, bicommunal federation. Τhe two communities, however, have different interpretations of the concept. On top of that within each community there exist various perspectives. This study focuses on four scenaria: (a) bizonal bicommunal federation, (b) stalemate/continuation of the status quo, (c) two-state solution, and (d) functional federation with loose bizonality. Each scenario leads to a unique set of arrangements and outcomes. It has been argued that if bi-ethnic and multi-ethnic societies are based exclusively on ethno-nationalist pillars it would be difficult, if not impossible, to sustain peace, cooperation, security and prosperity. From an economic perspective the author notes that a bi-ethnic and/or multi-ethnic state founded on ethnonationalism is likely to lack the appropriate economic structure and necessary economic dynamics to make it viable. Furthermore, it does not create the circumstances which lead to a comprehensive, cohesive and coordinated economic policy that is essential in promoting socioeconomic convergence. In addition, strong bizonality will not lead to an integrated economy and society. According to the study, a functional federation with loose bizonality generates a preferred outcome. This model adopts an integrationalist federal philosophy and encourages cooperation and the emergence of common objectives. It also considers that socioeconomic convergence will be the outcome of several factors: certainly the central government will have to play a significant role and so will the special programmes and projects of the EU. However, the most important role will be played by market forces. The model takes into serious consideration the objectives of the two ethnic communities; consequently, this model too is characterized by bi-communalism, although it attempts to go beyond it. Furthermore, it distinguishes between strict and loose bizonality and adopts the position that with the implementation of the latter, and in conjunction with the other characteristics of the model, it is possible to promote an integrated society, strong institutions and a viable and dynamic economy. 2008

3 Reflections on the relations between Britain and the Republic of Cyprus and the case of the British Sovereign Base Areas Edited by Andreas Theophanous and Yiannis Tirkides This study entitled Reflections on the Relations between Britain and the Republic of Cyprus and the Case of the British Sovereign Base Areas examines some sensitive aspects of this relationship and integrates public perceptions in the analysis. It sets the context which is based on the strong economic relationship between Cyprus and Britain. More than 50% of the tourists visiting Cyprus every year come from Britain while the total net surplus in the comprehensive economic relationship (including the Bases) is estimated to be around 10% of Cyprus GDP. It also underlines the significance of the social aspects of the relationship which include the widespread use of the English language in Cyprus, the incorporation of British practices in Cypriot business law and the broader legal framework, the educational exchanges, the presence of a sizable Cypriot community in the UK and of the increasing number of British expatriates and businessmen in Cyprus. This remarkable socioeconomic record is not matched in the political domain. Furthermore, perceptions are such that make the overall relationship difficult and at times tense. Greek Cypriots perceive British policy over Cyprus to have been consistently pro-turkish. And the underline that in 1974 Britain did not carry out its Treaty obligations. This study suggests that it is essential to reassess the overall relations between Cyprus and Britain. At the same time it recognizes that common values and converging interests, particularly in the context of the European Union, can be jointly and successfully pursued Η έληαμε ζηελ επξωδώλε θαη ε επαλέλωζε ηεο Κππξηαθήο νηθνλνκίαο (Επηκ.) θαη Γηάλλεο Τηξθίδεο Η Κππξηαθή Δεκνθξαηία ζήκεξα αληηκεησπίδεη ζεκαληηθέο πξνθιήζεηο πνπ απνξξένπλ απφ ηελ πξννπηηθή έληαμεο ζηελ Επξσδψλε θαη ηε ιχζε ηνπ Κππξηαθνχ κε ηξφπν πνπ λα απνθαζηζηά ηελ ελφηεηα ηεο ρψξαο. Σ απηφ ην πιαίζην, ε νηθνλνκηθή ζχγθιηζε ζε νιφθιεξε ηελ Κχπξν ζα απνηειεί κέγηζηε πξνηεξαηφηεηα θαη ζα πξέπεη λα αληηκεησπηζζεί απνηειεζκαηηθά

4 Η Κύπξνο, ε Δπξωπαϊθή έλωζε θαη ηα δηαθπβεπόκελα ζπκθέξνληα: Η έληαμε θαη ε ιύζε Οη εμειίμεηο γχξσ απφ ην Κππξηαθφ εκπεξηέρνπλ πξνεθηάζεηο πέξαλ ησλ γεσγξαθηθψλ νξίσλ ηεο Μεγαινλήζνπ. Τν βηβιίν ηνπ Καζεγεηή Αλδξέα Θενθάλνπο επεμεγεί κε ζαθήλεηα φηη πξσηαξρηθφο ζηφρνο ηεο φιεο πξνζπάζεηαο ζε ζρέζε κε ην Σρέδην Αλάλ ήηαλ ε απνελνρνπνίεζε ηεο Τνπξθίαο θαη ε δηεπθφιπλζε ηεο Επξσπατθήο ηεο πνξείαο. Η έληαμε ηεο Κππξηαθήο Δεκνθξαηίαο ζηελ ΕΕ σο ηζφηηκν κέινο δηαθνξνπνίεζε ηα δεδνκέλα, επεξεάδνληαο ζηξαηεγηθέο ηζνξξνπίεο, ηηο επηδηψμεηο ησλ εκπιεθφκελσλ κεξψλ, θαζψο θαη ηηο πξνζπάζεηεο επίιπζεο ηνπ Κππξηαθνχ πξνβιήκαηνο Accession to the Eurozone and the reunification of the Cyprus economy Edited by Andreas Theophanous and Yiannis Tirkides Cyprus faces a double challenge: the timely introduction of the Euro and successful participation in the EMU on the one hand, and the reunification of its economy within the framework of a solution of the Cyprus Problem on the other. Meeting the challenge is crucial. Accession to the EMU will undoubtedly influence the contents of a solution to the Cyprus problem, as it entails the need for economic integration and effective coordination in the decision-making progresses. The integration of the northern part of the island with the government-controlled areas and, by extension, with the EU, necessitates the implementation of the acquis communautaire across the entire island

5 The Cyprus question and the EU: The challenge and the promise Andreas Theophanous The Cyprus Problem does not concern only the Cypriots. It is also a European and an international problem. Whether and how it will be resolved will inevitably have repercussions beyond the territorial boundaries of this island-state. Undoubtedly, the Annan Plan was the result of the most intensive and concerted international efforts after 1974 to resolve the Cyprus problem. The architects of the plan- Britain, US and the UN Secretariat knew that their Plan had several weaknesses. But for them, the most important objective was to have it approved. Above all, much broader objectives would have been served. The Cyprus Question constitutes a major challenge for the EU. And the promise is to achieve an arrangement which would not only safeguard and promote EU ideals and interests, but would also act as a model of peaceful coexistence and creativity between Greek-Cypriot Christians and Turkish-Cypriot Moslems. In an age when the objective of promoting intercultural cooperation is very high on the international agenda, such an outcome in Cyprus would be a worthwhile step in the right direction EU enlargement and new security challenges in the Eastern Mediterranean Edited by S. Victor Papacosma, Andreas Theophanous, James Sperling The Eastern Mediterranean, into which the EU has expanded more deeply through the accession of Cyprus, boarders on one of the most volatile and unstable regions in the world, namely the Middle East. The EU enlargement into the Eastern Mediterranean will inevitably have political, as well as, security ramifications for the broader region. Power imbalances and security relationships in the broader Middle East have already been profoundly altered by the war in Iraq and the strong American presence in the area. That war also had significant repercussions on transatlantic relations; it has brought to the fore differing assessments and policies between the US and members of the EU, particularly France and Germany. Such differences are most pronounced in policies towards what has been described as the Greater Middle East. The may yet also determine developments in the Eastern Mediterranean and beyond, a topic at the center of the many contributions in this book

6 Τν ζρέδην Αλάλ θαη ε Δπξωπαϊθή επηινγή Με ην βηβιίν απηφ ην Κέληξν Εξεπλψλ Intercollege εγθαηληάδεη κηα ζπλεξγαζία κε ηνλ αζελατθφ εθδνηηθφ νίθν Παπαδήζε γηα ηελ έθδνζε κηαο ζεηξάο κειεηψλ θάησ απφ ηνλ ηίηιν Η Κχπξνο ζηνλ Σχγρξνλν Κφζκν. Η λέα ζεηξά θηινδνμεί λα πξνζθέξεη ζχληνκεο θαη πξνζηηέο, αιιά επηζηεκνληθνχ επηπέδνπ, κειέηεο πάλσ ζε δεηήκαηα πνπ αθνξνχλ ζηελ Κχπξν θαη ην ξφιν ηεο ζηνλ ζχγρξνλν θφζκν κεηά ηελ έληαμή ηεο ζηελ ΕΕ. Η έθδνζε απηή αλαιχεη ζε βάζνο ηηο πξφλνηεο ηνπ Σρεδίνπ Αλάλ, κε βάζε ηφζν ηελ πξψηε έθδνζε ηνπ Σρεδίνπ φζν θαη ηηο δχν πξψηεο αλαζεσξήζεηο πνπ αθνινχζεζαλ. Παξάιιεια, ζην βηβιίν αλαιχεηαη ε δπλακηθή πνπ πξνζδίδεη ε έληαμε ηεο Κππξηαθήο Δεκνθξαηίαο ζηελ ΕΕ ζε ζρέζε κε ηελ επξχηεξε θηινζνθία ηνπ Σρεδίνπ Αλάλ θαη ηελ πνξεία ιχζεο ηνπ Κππξηαθνχ. Σηα ζπκπεξάζκαηα θαη ηηο εηζεγήζεηο, ν θαζεγεηήο Θενθάλνπο πξνηείλεη κηα ζηξαηεγηθή αλαδήηεζεο Επξσπατθήο ιχζεο γηα ηελ Κχπξν, ε νπνία ζα είλαη σθέιηκε γηα φινπο ηνπο λφκηκνπο θαηνίθνπο ηνπ λεζηνχ ελψ ηαπηφρξνλα ζα εμππεξεηνχζε θαη επξχηεξνπο ζηφρνπο ηεο Επξσπατθήο Έλσζεο Η ειεπζεξνπνίεζε ηωλ επηηνθίωλ θαη θεθαιαίωλ θαη νη επηπηώζεηο ζηελ Κππξηαθή νηθνλνκία θαη ζην ζπλεξγαηηθό πηζηωηηθό θίλεκα Η Κχπξνο βξίζθεηαη κπξνζηά ζε κηα θαηάζηαζε φπνπ ε απφθιηζε κεηαμχ απνηειεζκάησλ απφ δηαθνξεηηθέο επηινγέο ζε επίπεδν πνιηηηθήο θαη ιχζεσλ είλαη πνιχ κεγάιε. Καη ηνχην αθνξά ζηελ νηθνλνκηθή ζηξαηεγηθή πνπ ζα αθνινπζεζεί ζε ζρέζε κε ηα πθηζηάκελα δηαξζξσηηθά πξνβιήκαηα, ηελ έληαμε θαη ηε ζπκκεηνρή ζηελ ΕΕ θαζψο θαη ηε ιχζε ηνπ Κππξηαθνχ πξνβιήκαηνο. Όια απηά ηα δεηήκαηα ζαθψο επεξεάδνπλ ηα ππφ εμέηαζε ζέκαηα. Τα δηάθνξα πξνβιήκαηα πνπ εληνπίζζεθαλ είλαη ππαξθηά ππαξθηνί είλαη θαη νη θίλδπλνη ζηελ πεξίπησζε πνπ ππεξηζρχζεη ε απξνλνεζία θαη ν εθεζπραζκφο. Όκσο ε κειέηε απηή ζα θιείζεη κε κηα λφηα αηζηνδνμίαο. Εάλ ιεθζνχλ έγθαηξα ηα απαηηνχκελα δηαξζξσηηθά κέηξα ηφηε ε Κχπξνο ζα πξνρσξήζεη επηηπρψο ζηελ νινθιήξσζε ηεο ειεπζεξνπνίεζεο ηνπ ρξεκαηνπηζησηηθνχ ηεο ζπζηήκαηνο θαη ηελ πιήξε ελαξκφληζε κε ην Κνηλνηηθφ Κεθηεκέλν, ειαρηζηνπνηψληαο ην νπνηνδήπνηε θφζηνο θαη κεγηζηνπνηψληαο ηα νθέιε

7 Δπξωπαϊθή Κύπξνο: Πνιηηεηαθή δνκή, νηθνλνκία θαη θνηλωλία Η έληαμε θαη ηα ζελάξηα ιύζεο Τν θνηλνηηθφ θεθηεκέλν θαη ηδίσο νη ζεζκηθέο πξνδηαγξαθέο ηεο Έλσζεο ζε ζπλδπαζκφ κε ηε κεγάιε ζπδήηεζε γηα ην κέιινλ ηεο Επξψπεο είλαη πιένλ ζηνηρείν νπνηνπδήπνηε ζεζκηθνχ δηαθαλνληζκνχ ζην Κππξηαθφ. Μέζα ζ απηφ ην λέν θαη ζαθέο πιαίζην εκθαλίδεηαη ε κειέηε ηνπ θαζεγεηή Αλδξέα Θενθάλνπο γηα ηελ πνιηηεηαθή δνκή, ηελ νηθνλνκία θαη ηελ θνηλσλία ζε κηα Επξσπατθή Κχπξν. Ο επηζηεκνληθφο ηνπ νπιηζκφο επηηξέπεη λα πξνζεγγίζεη φιεο ηηο φςεηο ηνπ δεηήκαηνο θαη λα αλαδείμεη ζηνηρεία, φπσο ηα καθξννηθνλνκηθά δεδνκέλα θαη νη αλαπηπμηαθέο πξννπηηθέο πνπ ζπλήζσο ππνηάζζνληαη ζε κηα ζπδήηεζε, ε νπνία γηα ηζηνξηθνχο ιφγνπο δηεμάγεηαη κε φξνπο θπξίσο ζεζκηθνχο θαη πνιηηηθνχο. Τν βηβιίν απηφ ζπκβάιεη κε δεκηνπξγηθφ θαη εκπξάγκαην ηξφπν ζε κηα ζπδήηεζε απνιχησο επίθαηξε θαη θξίζηκε Η Κύπξνο ζηελ Δπξωπαϊθή Έλωζε θαη ζην λέν δηεζλέο πεξηβάιινλ: Πξνθιήζεηο θαη πξννπηηθέο Τν βηβιίν θαηαπηάλεηαη κε ηελ πξνζπάζεηα έληαμεο ηεο Κχπξνπ ζηελ Επξσπατθή Έλσζε θαη ηελ επίιπζε ηνπ Κππξηαθνχ πξνβιήκαηνο. Εμεηάδνληαη ηα δχν απηά δεηήκαηα, θαζψο θαη ην πψο επεξεάδνληαη απφ ην πεξηθεξεηαθφ θαη δηεζλέο πεξηβάιινλ. Καηαηίζεληαη επίζεο ηδέεο γηα ην πψο ε Κχπξνο κπνξεί λα αληαπνθξηζεί επαξθψο ζηηο πνηθηιφκνξθεο πξνθιήζεηο Cyprus and the European Union Edited by Andreas Theophanous, Nicos Peristianis, Andreas Ioannou The prospective accession of Cyprus to the European Union is one of the most complicated cases ever tackled by the Union in the course of its enlargement. A major reason is that the accession process has de facto been linked with the Cyprus problem and its multiple dimensions, such as the issue of security in the Eastern Mediterranean, and to some extent with Turkey s relations with the EU. All these aspects are considered in this volume

8 Security and Cooperation in the Eastern Mediterranean Edited by Andreas Theophanous and Van Coufoudakis The Conference on Security and Cooperation in the Eastern Mediterranean that was organized by the Research Center Intercollege in Nicosia, January, 1996, was a unique event in a unique place. It was held in the divided capital of the last divided country of Europe and brought together scholars from Greece, the Balkans, Western Europe and the United States, who discussed a wide array of topics relating to security and cooperation in the region Βνπιεπηηθέο: Ιζηνξία, Αξηζκνί, Αλάιπζε Αλδξέαο Χαηδεθπξηάθνο, Χξηζηφθνξνο Χξηζηνθφξνπ Τν βηβιίν απνηειεί ηελ πξψηε πξνζπάζεηα ζπλνιηθήο παξνπζίαζεο ηεο πνιηηηθήο θαη θνκκαηηθήο δσήο ζηελ Κχπξν θαη ηεο ζπκπεξηθνξάο ηνπ Κχπξηνπ ςεθνθφξνπ. Αξρίδνληαο απφ ηελ πξψηε θνξά πνπ ζηήζεθαλ θάιπεο ζηελ αλεμάξηεηε Κχπξν, ην 1960 κέρξη ζήκεξα, ην βηβιίν παξνπζηάδεη ηε ζχγρξνλε ηζηνξία ηνπ ηφπνπ, εληνπίδεη θαη αλαιχεη ηηο κεηαηνπίζεηο ςεθνθφξσλ θαη ηε δχλακε ησλ θνκκάησλ ζε ζρέζε κε ηε γεσγξαθηθή θαη θνηλσληθή πξνέιεπζή ηνπο The Political Economy of a Federal Cyprus Andreas Theophanous The book presents a comprehensive analysis of the various aspects of the political economy of a Federal Cyprus. The significance of this book lies not only in that it will contribute to the understanding of the problems and the prospects of a federal structure in Cyprus; it also constitutes a very clear and useful road-map towards federation, the accepted basis of a solution to the Cyprus problem. The author deals with the economic aspects and consequences of two models of federation: loose and strong federation. And underlines the great importance of the role that the European Union can play

9 Δθεί πνπ ην Κππξηαθό ζαύκα δελ έθηαζε: Γνκηθέο θαη ζεζκηθέο αλεπάξθεηεο θαη πνιηηηθνθνηλωληθά ειιείκκαηα Δεκήηξεο Χξηζηνδνχινπ Τν βηβιίν απηφ επηρεηξεί κηα αλάιπζε θα ηεθκεξίσζε πάλσ ζηα θελά θαη ηα ειιείκκαηα πνπ ε επεκεξία ηεο ζεκεξηλήο Κχπξνπ παξνπζηάδεη θαη πνπ πξέπεη λα ζπκπιεξσζνχλ γηα λα νινθιεξψζεη ην ζαχκα πνπ έρεη ήδε εδξαηψζεη. Τν βαζαληζηηθφ κπζηήξην ηεο δηάρπηεο θαη απμαλφκελεο γεληθήο επκάξεηαο απφ ηε κηα θαη ηνπ δηεπξπλφκελνπ θνηλσληθνχ θαη πνιηηηζηηθνχ ειιείκκαηνο απφ ηελ άιιε είλαη ζεκειηαθή επηζηεκνληθή πξφθιεζε πνπ επηβάιιεη ζνβαξή επηζηακέλε έξεπλα θαη δηάγλσζε Αλαηνκία κηαο Μεηακόξθωζεο: Η Κύπξνο κεηά ην 1974 (Επηκ.) Νίθνο Πεξηζηηάλεο, Γηψξγνο Τζαγγαξάο Τν 1974 έρεη θαηαζηεί ζεκείν αλαθνξάο ζηε ζχγρξνλε ηζηνξία ηεο Κχπξνπ, αθνχ ζεκαηνδνηεί κηα βηβιηθψλ δηαζηάζεσλ θαηαζηξνθή, αιιά θαη ηελ αθεηεξία ελφο ξηδηθνχ κεηαζρεκαηηζκνχ ηεο θππξηαθήο θνηλσλίαο. Οη κειέηεο ηνπ ηφκνπ απηνχ εμεηάδνπλ ηηο ξαγδαίεο θαη βαζχηαηεο αιιαγέο, πνπ ζεκάδεςαλ ηελ Κχπξν, ζηηο δχν δεθαεηίεο πνπ κεζνιάβεζαλ απφ ην 1974 θαη πνπ κεηακφξθσζαλ θαζνξηζηηθά ην πξφζσπφ ηεο Οη νηθνλνκηθέο πηπρέο θαη επηπηώζεηο κηαο νκνζπνλδηαθήο ιύζεο ηνπ Κππξηαθνύ πξνβιήκαηνο Τα ζέκαηα πνπ ε εξγαζία απηή θαιχπηεη, θαη ν ηξφπνο πνπ ηα ρεηξίδεηαη, πξναγγέιιεη κηα λέα επνρή δηεξεχλεζεο, αλάιπζεο θαη πξνβιεκαηηζκνχ. Τν ζέκα, ην πξφβιεκα, πνπ αμηνινγείηαη είλαη δσληαλφ, επείγνλ θαη θνκκάηη ηνπ Κππξηαθνχ. Η δηεξεχλεζε αθνξά δεζκεχζεηο, επηινγέο θαη πηζαλά ζθεληθά θαη ε αλάιπζε αγθαιηάδεη πξνυπνζέζεηο ζπλέπεηεο, θφζηνο, βησζηκφηεηα θαη ην εθηθηψλ θάζε επηινγήο ή ζθεληθνχ. Ο ζθνπφο είλαη λα επηζηξαηεπζεί ε επηζηεκνληθή κέζνδνο, εκπεηξία θαη ζθέςε γηα λα πξνβιεκαηίζεη, εξεζίζεη θαη θσηίζεη θάζε αλαγλψζηε, θάζε ζθεπηφκελν Κχπξην πάλσ ζην επείγνλ θαη θαπηφ αιιά θαη δχζθνιν θαη πεξίπινθν πξφβιεκα