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1 CSAE Working Paper WPS/ China sexpansionofhighereducation:thelabourmarket ConsequencesofaSupplyShock JohnKnight 1,DengQuheng 2 andlishi 3 March2016 Centre for the Study of African Economies Department of Economics. University of Oxford. Manor Road Building. Oxford OX1 3UQ T: +44 (0) F: +44 (0) E: csae.enquiries@economics.ox.ac.uk. W:

2 Abstract. KeyWords. JELClassification. 2

3 1. Introduction Section 7 examines whether the CHIP surveys can distinguish between the direct effects of quantitative expansion and the indirect effects of that expansion on quality. Section 8 reports the empirical estimations obtained from the annual National Bureau of Statistics urban household surveys covering the years Section 9 concludes and reflects. 2. ANaturalExperiment?,ChinaStatisticalYearbook2009 3

4 Figure 1. Enrolment in regular institutions of higher education in China, millionstudents million students Year WorldDevelopmentIndicators2002 ChinaStatisticalYearbook2009 4

5 5

6 7 TheOutlineoftheEleventhFiveYearPlanforNationalEducationDevelopment 6

7 3. EducationalExpansionandtheLabourMarket:Theory 7

8 8

9 4. EducationalExpansionandtheLabourMarket:Evidence. 9

10 10

11 5. TheData 11

12 12

13 hukou hukou hukou 13

14 hukou hukou 6. AnalysisoftheCHIPSurveys 14

15 15

16 Table1.Theratioofaveragehourlywageofhighereducationgraduatestohighschool leaversbyfiveyearagecohort,2002and

17 Table2.Theratioofaveragehourlywageofuniversitygraduatestohighschoolleaversby fiveyearagecohort,2002and

18 Table3.Percentageunemploymentrateofhighereducationgraduates,university graduatesandhighschoolleaversbyfiveyearagecohort,2002and

19 cohort aged in 2002 than for the cohort that was five 19

20 Table4.Percentageoccupationaldistributionofhighereducationgraduates,university graduates,andhighschoolleaversbyfiveyearagecohort,2002and2007 Highereducationgraduates 20

21 Universitygraduates Highschoolleavers 21

22 7. TheCHIPSurveysandtheQualityofEducation 22

23 Table5.Quintileperformanceinsecondaryschool:percentagedistributionsandwage coefficients Highereducationgraduates Universitygraduates 23

24 24

25 Table6.Thewagecoefficientofhighereducationgraduatesanduniversitygraduates, withandwithoutstandardisationforquintileperformanceatschool,2002and2007 Sampleofhighereducationgraduatesandhighschoolleavers Sampleofuniversitygraduatesandhighschoolleavers 25

26 26

27 Unfortunately it was not possible to test the hypothesis that the rank of university attended had a greater effect on the wages of university graduates in 2007, after the great expansion of university education required employers to be more selective in their recruitment and remuneration policies. The 2007 CHIP survey contained some information that the 2002 survey lacked, in particular the gaokao score (crucial to the admission to institutions of higher education and their quality). It is not sensible to calculate measures of central tendency and dispersion of the gaokao score because the gaokao scoring system varied across years and provinces. The gaokao score can affect wages because it is a measure of individual ability and achievement (if it is known by employers) or a proxy for these productive qualities (if it is not known by employers). The gaokao score can also raise wages because it provides access to good institutions of higher education and so contributes to the amount of human capital acquired. The pure gaokao score is relevant if the effect on wages operates through individual qualities, but the gaokao score conditioned on province and year (so correcting for different admissions criteria) is relevant if the effect on wages operates through access to good institutions. Table 7 reports the conditional effect of the gaokao score on wages. One point more in the gaokao score raised the wages of higher education graduates by a statistically significant amount and of university graduates by almost the same amount. Examining the group aged 22-26, it is notable that each significant coefficient on gaokao is higher for the entry cohort than for employees as a whole. This is consistent with the notion that individual ability and 27

28 human capital acquired in university or college are becoming more important in wage setting given the much enlarged field of young graduates. It is unfortunate that we cannot directly test the gaokao gaokao gaokao gaokao Table7.Coefficientsongaokaoscorewithandwithoutstandardisationforprovinceand year of test; coefficients on higher education and on university education in wage functions for samples of higher education plus high school education and of university educationplushighschooleducation,withandwithoutstandardisationforgaokaoscore, 2007 Samplesbyeducationallevel gaokao Standardisingforprovinceandyearoftest Notstandardisingforprovinceandyearoftest Sampleofhighereducationgraduatesandhighschoolgraduates Withgaokaovariable 28

29 Gaokao Withoutgaokaovariable Sampleofuniversityeducationandhighschoolgraduates Withgaokaovariable Gaokao Withoutgaokaovariable gaokao gaokaogaokao gaokao gaokao 29

30 Table 8. Wage premium on higher education for sample of higher education graduates and high school leavers. and on university education for sample of university graduates andhighschoolleavers,byperformancequintile,2002and2007 Sampleofhighereducationgraduatesandhighschoolleavers Highereducationgraduatecoefficient Sampleofuniversitygraduatesandhighschoolleavers Universitygraduatecoefficient 30

31 8. AnalysisoftheNBSSurveys 31

32 8.1 Theeffectonwages 32

33 Figure2.Realearningsofhighereducationgraduatesbyageforeachentrycohort Real earnings Entry year Age 22 Age 23 Age 24 Age 25 Age 26 Age 27 Age 28 33

34 Figure 3. Relative real earnings of higher education graduates, deflated by the real earningsofallemployees,byageforeachentrycohort 34

35 Relative earnings Entry year Age 22 Age 23 Age 24 Age 25 Age 26 Age 27 Age Theeffectonunemployment 35

36 Figure4.Highereducationgraduates:unemploymentbyageforeachentrycohort 36

37 8.3Theeffectongoodjobs 37

38 Figure 5. Higher education graduates: proportion in good jobs by age for each entry cohort 38

39 9. Conclusion 39

40 40

41 gaokao 41

42 References ChinaEconomicReview JournalofChineseEconomicandBusinessStudies TheOvereducatedAmerican InequalityandPublicPolicy inchina 42

43 OxfordEconomicPapers, ChinaEconomicReview, ChinaEconomicReview Education,ProductivityandInequality:the EastAfricanNaturalExperiment Towards a Labour Market in China PublicPolicyandInequalityinChina Rising Inequality in China. ChallengestotheHarmoniousSociety 43

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