OMMN OMNM!"#$%&!"#$% = = = = = = == NIO == NIO N !"#$% PROGRESSUS INQUISITIONES DE MUTATIONE CLIMATIS !"#$%&'()*+,-./01%2

Μέγεθος: px

Εμφάνιση ξεκινά από τη σελίδα:

Download "OMMN OMNM!"#$%&!"#$% = = = = = = == NIO == NIO N !"#$% PROGRESSUS INQUISITIONES DE MUTATIONE CLIMATIS !"#$%&'()*+,-./01%2"

Κρίος Σαμαράς
6 χρόνια πριν
Προβολές:

= = = = = = 8 = 5 "#$% 2012 9 PROGRESSUS INQUISITIONES DE MUTATIONE CLIMATIS Vol. 8 No. 5 September 2012 doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2012.05.002,,,. 2001 2010 "#$%&'()*+,-.=[J].

1 = = = = = = 8 = 5 "#$% PROGRESSUS INQUISITIONES DE MUTATIONE CLIMATIS Vol. 8 No. 5 September 2012 doi: /j.issn ,,, "#$%&'()*+,-.=[J]. "#$%, 2012, 8 (5): 320J326 OMMN OMNM "#$%& "#$% == NIO N == NIO N N N="#$!%&'()*+,-. "#$%&'()*=NMMNMN O="#$%"&=NMMMQV = RFE2.0 Penman-Monteith "#$%&'() "#$%5 9 "#$%&'()"#$%&'()*"(1) "#$%&'()"*+67% "#$!%&!%'()(2) % "#$%&"#$%&'()*+, "#$%&'(3) "#$%&'()*+,-./ "#$%&'()*+,- "" " = ===="#$%&'()*+,' x1z "#$%&'()*+,- "#$%& 2100 "# "# x2z "#$%&' "#$%1% 30% x3z "# "#$%&'()"#$%&' "#$%&#'()*!+,- "#$%&'()*+,-.)/0 " x4z ===="#$%&'()*+,-./,0 "" "#$% "#$%&'()*+,-./01%2 x5j6z "#$%&'()*+()&,20 60 "#$%& ' ""#$"%&'( x7z "#$%&'()*+,-./012! "#$%&'()*+,"#$ "#$%&'()*+,-./01 "#$%&'()*+,-./0123 "#"#$%&'()* RFE2.0"Penman-Monteith "#$%&'()* "#$%&'()*+,-"# "#$ ; = "#$%&'()2010CB951704"#$!%&'()*+,-./ "#$%& ========= 2006FY "#"#$%&'()*+,-./0 "#$"zhoucp@igsnrr.ac.cn

2 "#$%&'()*+, N== NKN=="#$%& ===="#$ 3(1) DEM "#$%&'( SRTMShuttle Radar Topography Mission90 m"#$%&'( "(2) "#$%&'()!"*+ "#$ ANUSPLINE"#$%&'()* (3) "#MCD43B3 "# ARC/GIS 9.3R13.0ENVI 4.6ANUSPLINE CANOCO ORIGION 8.5"#$%&' 1 80E 90E 100E km 1 "#$%&'( Fig. 1 The study area and geographic distribution of meteorological stations 40N 30N NKO== 1.2.1== ===="#$%&'()*+,-*./0 ""#$%&'()* "#$%&'()*+,I a "#$%&'()*+,- (1) x8z I a = E/P, (1) I a "E "#P I a 4 "#1.5 I a Y4 "#$1 I a Y1.5 "#$I a Y1 "# 1.2.2=="# ===="##$%&'()*)+,-./ NOAA CPC RFE 2.0 x9z "# "#$"# SSM/ IAMSU-B GPI 3 "#$%" GTS"#$%&'()* "#"# "#$%&'"#$%&' RFE 2.0 "#$%&'()*+ "#$%&'()*+,- "#$%&'() "# $ 2001 "#$% "#$%& 1.2.3=="#$% ===="#$%&'()*+,-./01 FAO Penman-Monteith x 8 zi "#$%& MODIS MCD43B3"#$%Maximum Value Composite"#$%&'( (2) " #$ s "#$%&'()( "#$%&'(&) α = (1Js) α b + s α w, (2) α "#$α b "#$α w s " #$% 1.2.4=="# ===="#$R"#$%&'(!"#$!%&'"#$ "#$%&'()*+, x10z n ==i y i J===i y i R =, (3) n ==i 2 J E===iF 2 R "#$i "n "# "y i i "#,,,.="#$%&'()*+,-..="

= = = = = = "#$% 322 2012 ===="#$%&'()*+,-./01 "#$%&'()*+ x11z I a I S = lim = a, (4) 0 / S I a "# "# O==" OKN=="#$%&'"#$%& "#$ ====20012010"#$%5 9 "#$%&'()*+,-2 2001 2010 "#$%& 7.

3 = = = = = = "#$% ===="#$%&'()*+,-./01 "#$%&'()*+ x11z I a I S = lim = a, (4) 0 / S I a "# "# O==" OKN=="#$%&'"#$%& "#$ ==== "#$%5 9 "#$%&'()*+, "#$%& 7.2 "#$%&'()*+"#$%& I a "#$%&'()*("+,-. "#12 "#$%&'( "#$%&' 5000 m 6"O " "#$%&'()* 610 2a "#$% 4 """#$ "#"#$%&'()*+,* "#$%&'() 2a 2 "#$ "#$%&' 0.24"#$"#$% "#$%&'() " J "#$%&'()*+, "#$%&'()*+,-. (a 1 ) (b 1 ) (c 1 ) N / /mm /mm (a 2 ) (b 2 ) (c 2 ) "#$% /(/10a) "# /(mm/10a) "#$% /(mm/10a) 0 0~ ~ ~ ~ J15 J15~J5 J5~0 0~3 3~12 12 J3 J3~0 0~3 3~6 6~10 10 (a 3 ) (b 3 ) (c 3 ) "# /(/10a) /(mm/10a) "# /(mm/10a) J J J km "#$"#$%&'()*+, Fig. 2 The spatial-temporal change pattern of mean temperature (left), precipitation (middle), and potential evapotranspiration (right) in the Tibetan Plateau during the growing season (MayJSep.) of 2001J2010

2001 2010 "#$%&'()*+,-. 5 323 2a 3 "#$!"%&' "#$%&0.4 "# 00.4 ==== 2001 2010 "#$%&' 374 mm"#$%&'()*+ 2b 1 300 mm"#$%&'() "#$%&"#$%&'()* "# 100 mm "#$%& "#$%&'()*+,-'./01- "#$%&'() 500 mm "#$%&'()*+,-#.

4 "#$%&'()*+, a 3 "#$!"%&' "#$%&0.4 "# 00.4 ==== "#$%&' 374 mm"#$%&'()*+ 2b mm"#$%&'() "#$%&"#$%&'()* "# 100 mm "#$%& "#$%&'()*+,-'./01- "#$%&'() 500 mm "#$%&'()*+,-#../01 "# 700 mm "#$%& "#$ %&'()*+,+-./ mm "# "#$%&'()*+,-./01 "#$% 2b 2 "#$%& 2b "#$%&' 13 mm"#$%&'()*+,- "#$%&'()*+" ""#$5 mm " "#$%&'() "#$%"#$% ==== "#$%&'( 697 mm"#$%&'()*2c 1 "#$%&'()*+,-500 mm "#$%&'()*+,- 650 mm "#$%&'()"*+,-./ mm "#$%&'($ 800 mm "#$%& mm "#$%&'(#$)*+, "#$%&'()*+, 10 3 mm 2c 2 "#$%&'() "#$%= 10 6 mm "#$%10 10 mm "# 2c "#$%&'( 10 3 mm"#$%&'()*+, ""#$%&'()*+,-. "#$%&'( "# 10"#$%&'()610 mm "#$%&'( 10 mm " "#$%&'()* 23%"#$%&'()*+ "#$%&' OKO=="#$%&'()*+,-. ==== "#$%&'( 3a "#$%&'()*+,-." "#$ %&'( 23% 44% "#$%&'$%("#$%& "!#$%&' "# "#$%&'()*+,-./01 "#"#$%&'()*'(+, "#$%&'()*+" "#$%"#$ %& "# 8% ==== "#$%&'()*+ N (a) "# (b) "#$% (c) "# km "#$%&'()*+,-./ Fig. 3 The spatial-temporal change pattern of dryjwet climate in the Tibetan Plateau during the growing season (MayJSep.) of of 2001J2010

5 = = = = = = 324 "#$% = 2012 "#$%& 3b " "#$%&" ""#$%&'()* "#$%&'()* "#$%&"#$%& "#$%& 3c 10 25% "#$"#$%&'" "#$%&!'!()*+ "#$%&'()*+," "#$%&'()*+,-. "#$%&'()*+,- "#$% OKP=="#$%&'()*+,-./ == "#$%&'()*+,- "#$%& ===="#$%"#$%&'() 3 "#$%"#$%&'() "#$%&'"#"# "# $%&'()*+ 1 96"#$%"#$%&'( J0.86 "#$"# 0.82"#"# 0.23 "α = ="#$%&'()*+,-' Table 1 Spacial correlation coefficients between influential factors and aridity index J0.86 J0.76 J0.84 J0.53 J0.55 J " ===="#$%&'() 4 "#$%!&'()*"# 0.50 "#$%"#&'"#$ J0.80 "4"#$%&' "#$% 0.50 "#$! "#$%&'()0.48" 0.14"#$%&0.03 ===="#$%&'("#$%& "#$%&'()"#$ "#$%&$'()0.32 ===="#$ %&'"#$%& "#$%&'()*+,-"# "#!$%&'()%*+, 2.3.2=="#$%&'()*+" "#$% ====10"#$%&'("# "#$%&'()*+,-./0123 "##$%& '()*+,-./ " 96 "# "#$%&'"#$%&'() 4 "#$%"#&'( "#$%&'()*+,!-./0!+ "#$ 1.0 4a 4b "#$%&'()*+,-.)/01+ "#$%&'(')*+, "#$%&'()*+,!-./012 J1.0 "#$%&"# "#$%&'()*+,-4c "#$"%&'()*+,-./012 "#$%&1.0 " "#$%&'(" 0.2 ====96"#$%&'()*+,- "#$%&'() *"#$ 4(d)""#$%"&$'( "#$%&'()*+,-./"012 ""#$%&#'()*+, "#$%&'()*+,-$./012 "#$%&'()*" "#$"#$%&'()*+, "#$%&'()"#$% "#$%&"'(%)*+%,-./01 ==== 2(b 3 ) 2(c 3 )

5 2001 2010 "#$%&'()*+,-. 325 (a) (b) N (c) (d) J1.0 J1.0~J0.2 J0.2~0 0~0.2 0.2~1.0 1.0 0 500 1000 km 4 "#$%&'()*+"#$%&'()* Fig.

6 "#$%&'()*+, (a) (b) N (c) (d) J1.0 J1.0~J0.2 J0.2~0 0~ ~ km 4 "#$%&'()*+"#$%&'()* Fig. 4 The sensitivity of aridity index to the changes of (a) potential evapotranspiration, (b) mean temperature, (c) precipitation, and (d) their comparison at each station in the Tibetan Plateau "#$%&'()*+,-./0123 "#"#$%&'()*+,- "#$%&'()*"#$% "#$ %&'()$ *+,-./0 "#$%&'()*+,-./0 "#$%&!"#$%&'() "#$%&'()*"!#$% "#$%&'()*+,-./01 P=== ====RFE2.0 Penman-Monteith "#$%&' "#$ "#$%&'()*"#$%& "#$ (1) 2001" 10 "#67% "#$%"#&"#$!%& ""#$%"#&'()*+,- "#$%&'()*+()," "#$%&'()*+,-./ 012 " (2) 2001" 10 "#25% "#$%"#$%&' "#"#$%&'() "#$%&'()*+ " (3) "#$%&'()*+,-./0 96 "#$%&!"'()*+,- "#$%&'("#$%&'() "#$%&!'()*+,-./0

7 = = = = = = 326 "#$% 2012 [1] IPCC. Climate change 2007: the physical science basis: contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007 [2] Bates B C, Kundzewicz Z W, Wu Shaohong, et al. Climate change and water: technical paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [R]. Geneva: IPCC Secretariat, 2008: 210 [3] Burke E J, Brown S J, Christidis N. Modeling the recent evolution of global drought and projections for the twenty-first century with the Hadley Centre climate model [J]. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2006, 7 (11): 13J25 [4] Dai Aiguo, Trenberth K T, Qian Taotao. A global dataset of Palmer drought severity index for 1870J2002: relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming [J]. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2004, 5: 1117J 1130 [5],. "#$ [M]. : ", 1979: 89J 101 [6]. "# [M]. : ", 1990: 307J309 [7],,. "#$%&'()*+,=[J]., 2002, 9 (1): 95J102 [8],,,. " 30 "#$ [J]., 2005, 60 (1) : 3J11 [9] Xie Pingping, Arkin P A. Analysis of global monthly precipitation using gauge observations, satellite estimates and numerical model prediction [J]. Journal of Climate, 1996, 9 (4): 840J858 [10],,,. "#$%&'()*+,- "#$% &'( [J]., 2010, 29 (11): 2004J 2016 [11],,,. "#$%&'()*+,-. " [J]. "#, 2008, 24 (5): 1J5 Aridity Pattern of Tibetan Plateau and Its Influential Factors in 2001J2010 Wang Min 1, 2, Zhou Caiping 1, Wu Liang 1, 2, Xu Xingliang 1, Ouyang Hua 1 1 Key Lab of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling of CAS, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing , China; 2 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing , China Abstract: The RFE2.0 model, Penman-Monteith model and the aridity index were applied to evaluate the spatial pattern of dryjwet climate of the Tibetan Plateau in the growing season (MayJSep.) of 2001J2010, and influential factors for aridity pattern were also analyzed. The results show that (1) the arid and semi-arid climate zone mainly in the central and central-north parts of the plateau accounted for 67% of the total area of the Tibetan Plateau; (2) the south and southeast parts of the plateau, accounting for 25% of the total area, showed a drying trend from 2001 to 2010, and overall the degree of aridity in northern part was gradually reduced; (3) precipitation was the dominant factor leading to the regional difference of aridity, and the aridity index was more sensitive to potential evapotranspiration than to mean temperature and precipitation. Key words: Tibetan Plateau; growing season; mean temperature; precipitation; potential evapotranspiration; aridity pattern

Σχετικά έγγραφα

,,, (, 100875) 1989 12 25 1990 2 23, - 2-4 ;,,, ; -

,,, (, 100875) 1989 12 25 1990 2 23, - 2-4 ;,,, ; - 25 3 2003 5 RESOURCES SCIENCE Vol. 25 No. 3 May 2003 ( 100875) : 500L - 2-4 - 6-8 - 10 114h - 120h 6h 1989 12 25 1990 2 23-2 - 4 : ; ; - 4 1186cm d - 1 10cm 514d ; : 714 13 317 714 119 317 : ; ; ; :P731