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2 4!=!"#$%&'()*+,-./ 285!"#$%&'()*+,!!"#$%&' x4z! 2007 EIO-LCA 2007!"#$%& GHG!"!#$ 53.0%Ou x5z!"!ccs!"#$% GHG!!"#$% CCS!" GHG!"#$%&' x6z!"#$!"#$% 8!"#$%GHGNO x HCCOSO x PM10!"#!"# SO x!"#$%$&' x7z!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&!"#$%&'()(*+ ====!"#$%&'(!"#$%&!"#$%&!"#$%!"!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'()*+,-./012!"#$%&'()*+,!"# GHG!"!#$%&'(! GHG!"#$%&'()*+, GHG!"#$%&!" GHG NO x HCCO!"#$%&'()*+,!"#$%&'!"#$%&!"#$%&'()*+,-./012!"#CO 2 NO x SO 2!"#$!"!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"# N==! NKN==! ====!"#$!"#$%&!!"#$!"#$%& !"#$%&'()*+,!"#!"#$%&'()!"*!"#$!"#$%!"#$!"#$%&'!"#$%&'()!"#!"!"#$%GHG!"#$%&' 70% x8z!"#!"#$%&'( ====! x4-6z!"#$%&1 km!"#$%&'()!"#$%&'!"#$%&' NKO==! ====!"#$%&'()*+,-./01!"#!"#$%&'()E i i!"#$%&'e i!! L!" F i!"#$%&'()*#+,!"#$%&'()*+"#pj j!!"# i!"#$j!i!" j!" E i = F i P j ============================(1) ==== P j!"#$%&'()*!+!"# x9z!"#$!"!"#$!"#$%&!'()*+,!"#$%&'( mp j!"#$ P j = Σ m Σ z (C m, j, z S m, j, z P z )==============(2) C m, j, z! m!"#$% j!"# z!"#$%s m, j, z m!"#$%j!"#$%z!"#$!"#$%&'#$()*!"!"#$%&!' (2) P j!"#$%& ====!"#$ %CO 2 NO x SO 2!"#$%&!"#$CO 2!"!"#$%&'()*!"#NO x 2006!"#$%&'()*+,-!"#$%&'()&*+,-SO 2!"#$%&'()*+,-./ NKP==! ====2010!"#$%&'()*+,-. =!"#$%&'!"#(!"#$%&'!"#$%&' 3!"#$%&'()

3 = = =!"#$% 286 =2013!"#$%&!"#$%&!!"#$%#&'()*+,-./0123!"x9-10z!"#$%&'$()!! "#$%&'()*+,-. ====2020!"#$!"#$%!"#$%&$"'()*!!"#$%&'()!"#$%&'!"#$%&'()*!+,!"!"#$%&'()*!+,-./0!"#$%! 2020!"!"#$%&!"#$%&'()*!"#$!"#$%&'() 1==!"#$%& 2020!" Table 1 Key parameters and scenarios in 2020 in this study !"#$% /(L/100km) !"# /(L/100km) ====2020!"#$%&'()*+,-./!"# 2020!"#$!"!"#!" #$%&'()* !"#$%&'()* 25%!"# x11z IEA x12z 2020!"#$% 15%!!"#$% 70%!"#!"#$320 g/ekwhf!"#$!"!"#$%&'()*+!"no x SO 2!"#$%&2020!"#$%&'( 100%!"#$ SCR!"#$%80%!"#1.5%!"#95%!"#$%&NO x SO 2!"#$%& g/ekwhf!" g/ekwhf 2020 V!"#$%&2010!"#$! III! "# 1!" /(kwh/100km) 20 16!"# NO x /(g/km) 0.15 O==!!" /10 J !! /% ! /% !" /% !"#$% NO x /(g/(kwh)) SO x /(g/(kwh)) ! /(g /(kwh)) SO x!"#!"#$%&'()*+,-./ 1.7!" SO x!"#$ 2.0!"#$%&!"!"!"#$%&#'()*0.14 kwh/km!"!"#$!%&'(! 2020!"#$%&'!"#$ 0.16 kwh/km!"# 90% 2020!"#$%&$'( SCR SNCR!"#$%&F SCR SNCR!"#$% 60%90% 20%40% x13z!" 75% 30% OKN==!"#$%&'()*+, (1)!" 2!"#$%&'(!" 2010!"#$%&'()!"#$%&'()* 2.00 MJ/km!"#$% &39.1%16.9% 2020!"#$!"#$%&'()*+, 1.41 MJ/km!"!#$ 27.2%!"#$6.4%2020!"#$%!"#$%&'(!"#2010 (2) CO 2!"!"#$%&'( 2==!"#$%&'()*+ Table 2 Vehicles fuel-cycle energy consumption and pollution emission!! /(MJ/km) CO 2 /(g/km) NO x /(g/km) SO 2 /(g/km) !"# !"

4 4!=!"#$%&'()*+,-./ 287!"# CO 2!"#$%&'()!"#!"2010!"#$%& CO 2!" 160 g/km!" 28.9%!"#$%&'() !"#$!"#$%&' CO 2!"#$ 111 g/km!"!#$!"#$%&' 8.8% (3) NO x!"no x!"#$%&'!"#$%&'()*+,-./012!"2010!"#$%&'( NO x 0.58 g/km!" 56.0%!! 86.0%!"#$%&'()*+!"#$%&'()*+,-./012! NO x!"!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'()*+, !"#$%&'no x!"#$%0.117 g/km!"# V!"#$%& 2F (4) SO 2!" !"#$%&'()*+,- SO 2! 2010!"#$%&'()* SO g/km!"!#$%&'(!# !"#$ SO 2!"#$%&!"#$%&' SO 2!"#$ 0.10 g/km!"#$%$&!"#$ 25.0% 66.7% 2F OKO==!"#$%&'()*+,-./ ====!"#$%&'%(=EWTT! TTW!"!"#$!"!#$%&'(!#)70%75% CO 2 40%50% NO x!"#!"#$ SO 2 90%!"#!"#$ ====!"#$%&'()*+,-./ ! 93.7% CO % NO x 88.8% SO 2!"#$%&'( 1F % CO % NO x 66.4% SO 2!"#$%&'() P==!"#$%&'()*+,-./ ====!"#$%&!"#$2020!!"#$%&!"#!"#$!"#$%&'()*+, x14z 2020!"#$%&!"#$ 0.12 kwh/km!"#$ 2020!"#$%&' 320 g/(kwh)!"#$%&'()*+,-.+ /% ! CO 2 NO x SO 2! CO 2 NO x SO 2!!" 1!"#$%&'()*+,-./2010 F Fig. 1 The breakdown of fuel-cycle energy consumption and pollution emission in 2010!"#$%&'()*+, kw!"#!$%&' 326 g/(kwh)

5 = = =!"#$% 288 = 2013!"#$%&'()*+,!"!"#$%&'()!"#$%&'!"#$%&'( PKN==!"#!$%&'( ====!"#$%&'()*+,"#-!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"!"#$!"#$%&'()*&'!"# $%&'(!"#$%&!"#$!%#&'()*+,-./0!"#$%!"#&'()*+ 2!"!"# = /(L/100km) !"# /(kwh/100km) SO 2 CO 2 NO X 2!"#$%!"&'()2020! Fig. 2 Equivalent energy consumption or pollution emission curve of vehicles in 2020 ====!"!"#$%!&!"!"#$%&'()#*+, !"!"12 kwh/100km!"#$ %&'4.5 L/100km!" SO 2!"#$%&'()*+!"#!"#$%CO 2!"#$%&'()*!"# $%&'2.5 L/100km 2020!"# 12 kwh /100km!"#$% CO 2 NO x SO 2!"#$%&'()!!" 4.5 L/100km!"#$% 2!"#$%&'()*+,-. ====!"#$%&'()*+!"#$%&'#()*+,-)./0!"!"#$%&'$()*!"#$%& PKO==!"#$% &'()* ====!"#$%&!'(")!"#!"#$%&'()*+,-./01234!"#$%&'"()*+,-./012!"#$%&'()*+&,-./01!"#$%&'()*+,-.*)/01 1!"#$%&'()*+,-.#/01 ==== 3!!"#$%! &'(!"#$%&'()*+,-./$012! "#!"#$ 1.0%!"#$%&'()*+,-). /! 5.6!"#$%&'()*+,!!"#$%&'()*+,-./ !"#$%!"#$%310 g/(kwh)!!"#$%&no x!"#$%&'(!!"#$ 67.5%!" 3==!"#$%&'()*+,-./2020! Table 3 Marginal effect of energy saving and emission reduction of change in coal share and net coal consumption rate in 2020!! 1.0%!"!! 1.0 g/(kwh)!" /(MJ/km) J J J J CO 2 /(g/km) J J J03 J NO x /(g/km) J J J J SO 2 /(g/km) J J J J0.0003!"#$!"#$%&'()&*+,-./ ,- 7/9 E!"#F =!"#$%&#'!"#$%

6 !=!"#$%&'()*+,-./ g/(kwh)!"#$%&'(co 2!"#$%&'()*+, ====!"#$%!"#$%&'!"!"#$%&!"#!"#$!"!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"!"#$%&!"#$!"#$ %!"#$%&'()*!"#$% 2020!"#$!"#$%&'($)*+,-2020!"#$%&'()*+,!"#$!"#$ PKP==!"#$%&!" ====1!"#$%&'NO x SO 2!"#$%&'()!"#$%&'!"#!"#$%&'!"#!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&!"#$%&'()*+,!"#-./! 3 ====!"#$%&'()!*+,-.$/ NO x SO 2!! NO x!"# 0.86 g/kwh!"#$%no x!"#$%$&'()!"#$%&'()*+,-.!" 0.71 g/kwhe3af!"# SO 2!" 0.30 g/kwh!"#$% SO 2!"#$%$&'()!"!"#$%&'()!"0.18 g/kwh E 3bF ====!"#$ NO x SO 2!"#$% g/kwh!"#$%&'()!"#$%&'()*+,-./0123!!"#$ SO 2!"# 0.30 g/kwh!"#$%&'97.0%!"#$% 1.5% x15z Q==!" ====!"#$%&'()*!"#$! /(g/km)! /(g/km) 0.14 (a) NO x ===========!"!"# ! /(g/(kwh) (b) SO 2 ===========!"!"# ! /(g/(kwh) 3!"#$%&'()*+,-./#$%&!"#2020 F Fig. 3 Relationship between emission performance of coal plant and vehicles-fuel cycle emission intensity in 2020!"#$%&'(CO 2 NO x SO 2!!"#$%&!"#$%&'()*+!"#$%&'()*+,#-!" ====!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"#$%&'()!"#$%&!"#!"#!"#$#%&!"#$%&'(!) ==== 2010!"#$%&'()! NO x SO 2!"#$%&!! NO x SO 2!"#$%&'()*!!"#$%&'()*!+,-.!"#!"#$%&'()*+,-!"#$%&'()*+!"#$%!"# ==== =!"#$%!&'()*!"#$"%&'!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'()%&*+,-./0

7 = = =!"#$% 290 =2013!"#$%&' ====!"#$%&'( NO x SO 2!"#$%&'!"()*+,-!"#$%&'()*+,!!!"#$%&'()*+),-.!"#$%&'()#&'*+,-! [1] DeLuchi M, Wang Q, Sperling D. Electric vehicles: performance, lifecycle costs, emissions, and recharging requirements [J]. Transportation Research Part A: General, 1989, 23 (3): [2] Vliet O, Brouwer A S, Kuramochi T, et al. Energy use, cost and CO 2 emissions of electric cars [J]. Journal of Power Sources, 2011, 196 (4): [3] Lucas A, Silva C A, Neto R C. Life cycle analysis of energy supply infrastructure for conventional and electric vehicles [J]. Energy Policy, 2012, 41 (2): [4],,. EIO-LCA!"#$%&'()! [J].!"#, 2012, 32 (5): [5] Ou X, Xiao Y, Zhang X. Using coal for transportation in China: life cycle GHG of coal-based fuel and electric vehicle, and policy implications [J]. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 2010, 4 (5): [6],.!"#$%&'()*+ 3E!"=[J].!, 2008, 30 (6): [7].!"#$%&'()*+,-=[J].!, 2010 (9): [8],,.!"#$!"%&'()*+,- [J].!!" :!", 2009, 49 (9): , 117 [9],.!"#$%&'()*+",-./012 [J].!", 2009 ( 2): [10],,. WTW!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&'()* [J].!, 2008 (1): 5-9 [11]. 2020!"#$%&'()*+,-./0 [J]., 2009, 31 (3): [12] IEA. World energy outlook 2010 [R]. Paris: IEA, 2010 [13]!"#$.!"#$%&'()*+,-=[R]. :!"#$, 2010 [14],.!"#$%&'()*+, [J].!, 2012, 24 (2): [15]!"#$%&'()*+.!"#$%&'()!"#$ [J].!, 2012 (9): Prospective for Energy and Environmental Performances of Battery Electric Vehicle in China Su Liyang, Wang Yi, Chen Qian, Ru Xingjun Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing , China Abstract: Based on fuel-cycle method, this paper tries to conduct a quantitative analysis on the energy and environmental performances of battery electric vehicle (BEV) in China. Four critical indicators, energy consumption, CO 2, NO x and SO 2 emission, are selected for the comparison of the performances of BEV, internal combustive engineering vehicle (ICEV) and hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) in 2010 and The findings show that in 2010, the diffusion of BEV could reduce energy consumption and CO 2 emission, but BEV s fuel-cycle NO x and SO 2 emissions are higher than fuel-engined vehicles (both ICEV and HEV) by 50% at least. In 2020, if the targets in government planning are reached, BEV s fuel-cycle energy consumption and CO 2 emission could be reduced by around 30% and its NO x and SO 2 emissions could be reduced by around 80% compared with its counterpart in However, BEV s fuel-cycle CO 2, NO x and SO 2 emissions are still higher than HEV s as a result of several reasons. In the end, policy recommendations for how to improve BEV s energy and environmental performances are proposed, such as integrating the deployment of BEV into the progress of desulfurization and denitrification in electricity system, the management policy for automobiles should be based on vehicles energy efficiency, and so on. Key words: battery electric vehicle; fuel cycle; energy conservation; pollutant reduction; carbon emission

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