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1 Biquarterly Journal of Iran'sEconomicEssays Vol.9, No.18, Autumn & Winter ARDL ARDL I24, H30, E32, E62 JEL

2 1 Counter- Cyclical. 2 Pro-Cyclical. Fiscal Policy Fiscal Cyclicality, FC Volatility, FPV Woo, Manasse.

3 OECD OECD OECD GDP 1. Gavin and perotti. 2. Stein et al. 3. Lane. 4. Alesina and Tabellini. 5. Michal. 6. Thornton.

4 (SYS-GMM) OECD OECD OECD 1 Diallo. 2. System Generalized Method-of-Moments. 3. Woo. 5. checks and balances.

5 1. Tax- Smoothing. 2. Barro. Alesina and Lane, 2003Talvi and Vegh, 2000 Woo, 2009Michal, 2008Tabellini, 2005 A-cyclical Abdih, 2010Lozano, 2010Ardanaz & et al, Battaglini and Coate. 6. Gavin and perotti.

6 1. voracity effect.

7 1.Social Polarization of Preferences.

8 GDP GDP GDP GDP GDP 2. Gali. 3. Fatas and Mihov.

9 OECD 1. Baldini. 2. Fiscal Balance. 3. Perry.

10 1. Institutional Quality. 2. Economic Freedom of The World. 3. Regulation of Credit, Labor and Business. Gwarttney and Lawson, Heritage.

11 CIM ( M 2 C ) CIM = M C M 2 2 M C 2 1. Clague & et al. 2. Contract Intensive Money. 3. Non- Currency Money. 4. Age of Democracy.

12 1. Henisz.

14 ε φχ α θ α γ = 1 0 ˆ

15 tradeopene ss gini γ gdpvol egini cim oilvol govsize democracy pinstab γ U.S. Energy information Administration Tomul, 2011 GDP GARCH GARCH GARCH 7. Measure of Pro-Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy.

16 t t c t GDP G ε γ α + + = log log γ γ γ γ γ.

17 ARDL 2. Pesaran & et al.

18 FLM ARDL γ t (-1) γ govsize govsize (-1) egini oilvol oilvol oilvol (-2) gdpvol gini cim pinstab F DW R 2 F ARDL 1. Bounds Test.

19 CUSUM CUSUMSQ γ t govsize egini oilvol gdpvol gini cim pinstab ( 1) ECM

20 ARDL

24 Abdih Y. P. Lopez-Murphy, A. Roitman, R. Sahay (2010), The Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy In The Middle East and Central Asia: Is The Current Crisis Different?, IMF Working Paper. WP/10/68. Alesina A & G Tabellini, (2005), Why Is Fiscal Policy Often Procyclical? Journal of European Economic Association, Vol. 6, P Ardanaz M. & P. M. Pinto & S. M. Pinto (2010), Fiscal Policy in Good Times and Bad Times: Endogenous Time Horizons and Procyclical Spending in Argentina. Paper Prepared for Delivery at Politics in The New Hard Time. The Great Recession and Contemporary Politics, A Conference in Honor of Peter A. Gourevitch. Baldini A. (2005), Fiscal Policy and Business Cycles in Oil- Producing Economy: The Case of Venezuela. IMF Working Paper, WP/05/237. Battaglini M. & S. Coate (2008), Fiscal Policy over the Real Business Cycle: A Positive Theory, NBER Working Paper No Carmignani F. (2010), Cyclical Fiscal Policy in Africa, Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 32, P Diallo O. (2009). Tortuous road toward countercyclical fiscal policy: Lessons from democratized sub-saharan Africa. Journal of Policy Modeling. Vol. 31, P

25 Farzanegan M.R. & G. Markwardt (2007), The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on the Iranian Economy, Journal of Energy Economics, Vol. 31, No. 1, P Gavin M. & R. Perotti (1997), Fiscal Policy in Latin American. NEBR Macroeconomics, Annual 12, P Ilzetzki E. & C. A. Vegh. (2008), Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: Truth or Fiction?, NBER Working Paper Lane P. R. (2003), The Cyclical Behavior of Fiscal Policy: Evidence from the OECD, Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 87, P Lozano I. (2010), Fiscal Policy in Colombia and A prospective Analysis After the 2008 Financial Crisis, Borradores De Economia Working Paper, No Manasse, P. (2006), Procyclical Fiscal Policy: Shocks, Rules and Institutions- A View from MARS, IMF Working Paper/06/27. Michal M. (2008), Determinants of Cyclicality of Fiscal Surpluses in the OECD Countries, MPRA Paper No Onodje M. A. (2009), An Insight into the Behavior of Nigeria's Private Consumer Spending, African Journal of Business Management, Vol. 3, P Pesaran, M. H. & Y. Shin, & R. J. Smith (2001), Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 16, P Perotti R. (1999), Fiscal Policy in Good Times and Bad, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 114, P Perry G. (2002), Can Fiscal Rules Help Reduce Macroeconomic Volatility In The Latin American and The Caribbean Region?, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, Stein E. & E.Talvi & A. Grisanti (1999), Institutional Arrangements and Fiscal Performance: The Latin American Experience, NBER Macroeconomics, P Talvi E. & C. A.Vegh (2000), Tax Base Variability and Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries, NBER Working Paper No. W799.

26 Thornton J. (2008), Explaining Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Africa Countries, Journal of African Economics, Vol. 17, P Tomul, Ekber. (2011), Educational Inequality in Turkey: An Evaluation by Gini Index, Journal of Education and Science, Vol. 36, No. 160, P Woo J. (2009), Why Do More Polarized Countries Run More Procyclical Fiscal Policy?, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 91, P Woo J. (2011), Growth, Income Distribution and Fiscal Policy Volatility, Journal of Development Economics, P

27 i G 2 t t = 1 { } 2 f t t t = 1 { g, } 2 t t = 1 { T } Y g t τ T t = τy f t 2 t = 1 α i 2 t t = 1 2 f t t = 1 { g } { } T = 1, 2 b b = rb + g + f T t t 1 t 1 t t b β υ ( ) 1 α α Inada Condition. ( ) ( 1 ) ( ) i t 1 MaxJ = β α υ g + α υ f 0 α 1 i i = 1, 2 i t i t α i

28 g t g t f f t t θ θ = α α [ 0,1] 1 2 θ = 0 θ = 1 b = 0 b = g + f T g T = f = 2 2 ( 1 ) + r b 2 1 g 2 g 1 g 2 ( ) ( 1 ) ( ) ( ) ( 1 ) ( ) i MaxJ = α υ g + α υ f + βα υ g + α υ f { g, g } g 1 f f 2 1

29 ( 1 θ )( 2 r ) ( 1+ r ) β + ( 1+ θ ) + + G = g + f = T T ( + θ )( + ) + ( + r )( + θ ) + ( θ r ) dg dg 1 2 r 1 1 = = =, 1 dt d ( τy ) G 1 1 β = 1 + r

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