Euro Area & Greece: Can we escape the crisis?

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1 Euro Area & Greece: Can we escape crisis? American College Thessaloniki, 28/9/2011 Ομιλία στην παρουσίαση του συλλογικού τόμου «Η διεθνής κρίση, η κρίση στην ευρωζώνη και το ελληνικό χρηματοπιστωτικό σύστημα» Gikas A. Hardouvelis Chairman Scientific Council HBA Pressor, Un. Piraeus & Chief Economist, Eurobank EFG ΓΚΙΚΑΣ ΧΑΡΔΟΥΒΕΛΗΣ

2 Euro Area & Greece: Can we escape crisis? TABLE OF CONTENTS I. How can Europe & Greece exit from crisis? A. Hisry crisis B. Euro Area s missg foundions C. Proposed solutions Euro Area crisis D. Can Greece turn crisis an opportunity? II. The HBA Collective Volume s contents 2

3 Ι.A Markets woke up from a decade nirvana Sovereign risk is now driver year terest re spreads over Bunds (January 1995 August 2011) Greece Formion Euro Area Note: Monthly Averages; Annualized yields murity on fixed coupon bonds. Eurost estimes whenever monthly 10-yr yields were not available. Source: Eurost Portugal Ireland Spa Italy Jan-95 Apr-95 Jul-95 Oct-95 Jan-96 Apr-96 Jul-96 Oct-96 Jan-97 Apr-97 Jul-97 Oct-97 Jan-98 Apr-98 Jul-98 Oct-98 Jan-99 Apr-99 Jul-99 Oct-99 Jan-00 Apr-00 Jul-00 Oct-00 Jan-01 Apr-01 Jul-01 Oct-01 Jan-02 Apr-02 Jul-02 Oct-02 Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 3

4 I.A Two years Greek & Euro Area crisis May st Greek Bailout, 110bn End--week 10-yr spreads over Bunds November nd Revision Greek deficit and debt figures Irish bailout, 85bn May 2011 Portuguese bailout, 78bn July 2011 Concerns on Italy 2nd Greek bailout? 109bn EFSF boost Greece Portugal Ireland Italy Spa Oct-09 Oct-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Jan-10 Feb-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 Apr-10 Apr-10 May-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Oct-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Jan-11 Feb-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 Apr-11 Apr-11 May-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Sep-11 Source: Bloomberg 4

5 Ι.A External and ternal (fiscal) imbalances followg EMU formion Current Account Balance % GDP, avg GR Period prior Euro Area crisis IT PT FR DE EA Tw Deficits AT NL BE Tw Surpluses IE ES LU FI Source: European Commission y = 1.80x R 2 = General Government Balance 4 6 % GDP, avg

6 Ι.A Euro Area has low tal gov. debt but divergent phs nional debts Gross Debt (% GDP) Country AT BE CY EE FI FR DE GR IE IT LU MT NL PT SK SI ES JP UK USA % 52.3 General Government Debt (% GDP & Change from pp GDP) 157.7% 112.0% 101.7% 6 Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Da (September 2011) % % 84.2% Japan Greece Ireland Portugal USA EA-17 UK Spa Source: European Commission Euro Area as a whole was affected less by crisis than US or UK Crisis affected mostly Ireland and Greece Future rise Debt/GDP larger than 10% GDP JP, IE, USA, PT, ES, SI %

7 Ι.A Leverage is not only public In Greece Prive Debt is low, below EA average, 11 th largest Large hidden debt pension obligions Currently, a vicious loop between level terest res and deficits 400% Old Regime Pension Exp. (% GDP) GR Dependency* Pension Exp. (% GDP) EA Source: European Commission 2009 * Rio pensioners contriburs 0 Cyprus Lux/bourg 0 Ireland 7 Portugal Sum Public and Prive Debt (2010, ΕΕ-17, % GDP) Greece Spa Italy Nerlands Malta Source: European Commission, ECB EA-17 Public Non MFI Corporions Households Gross pension replacement re 34,9 36,3 37,0 42,0 42,3 49,1 53,8 54,4 57,8 59,0 59,3 60,6 62,9 64,5 69,5 72,4 81,1 81,2 82,5 85,9 89,1 (median earners) Source: OECD Pensions a glance 2011 Austria France Germany Belgium Fland Slovenia Esnia Slovakia 95,7 100,0 IE JP UK DE US FR SE PT FN PL CH OECD EU-27 IT TR IN AR ES CN BR NL GR SA

8 I.A The supply credit: Over-aggressive fancial secr? Bankg Secr Assets, % GDP (Dec Dec Jun. 2011) % 245.4% 150.2% 172.4% 326.4% 225.9% 334.6% Greece Portugal EA UK Ireland Source: European Commission, ECB % Lendg for House Purchases, % GDP (July 2011) 40% 35.5% Romania Bulgaria Slovenia Hungary Slovakia Poland Lithuania Czech Italy Belgium Austria Lvia Greece Germany EA France Fland Malta Lux/bourg Sweden Spa Ireland Neth/lands UK Portugal Cyprus Source: ECB Greek banks did not over- expand and did not hold xic assets; y were not affected by ternional fancial crisis June 2011 stress tests did not persuade IMF or market Sovereign risk and bankg risk are almost distguishable day as banks hold large amounts peripheral sovereign debt 8

9 I.A Bank fundg pressures are gog up aga but capital rios improve % Annualized Agreed Re for new bank deposits households (for with agreed murity up one year) % Bank Core Tier I Capital Rios (%) Source: ECB Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul % Cyprus Germany Spa Greece Portugal EA Loans/Deposits (July 2011) for non MFIs (prive secr plus General Government) 129.9% 113.9% Source: IMF Denmark Sweden Ireland Fland Italy Slovenia Greece Neth/lands France Portugal Austria EA Cyprus Spa UK Malta Germany Czech Lux/bourg Belgium Source: ECB 9

10 Ι.A Different Euro Area countries confronted with different challenges IRELAND Housg market Banks rise public debt High prive debt PORTUGAL Low competitiveness Large fiscal deficits, but not debt High prive debt SPAIN Low competitiveness Housg market Small savgs banks High prive debt GREECE Low competitiveness High fiscal deficits & debt ITALY competitiveness High debt Index Unit Labor Costs In Manufacturg Source: Ameco IE EL IT DE IT PT EL ES IE DE 10

11 Ι.B Why a crisis? Economic ory Optimum Currency Areas was ignored Politicians advanced hyposis th convergence an Optimum Currency Area will nurally take place once EMU is formed an environment open borders and free competition. Openness & free competition were legisled prior formion EMU: Liberalized labor, capital and product markets among participg countries Internal market rules th ensure a level-playg field. However, remag structure real economies was left tact. But for OCA occur, member countries eir have share similar structures or be flexible enough absorb shocks quickly and share a common central authority th would redistribute effects shocks A fiscal transfer mechanism was never stalled as it required deeper political tegrion Furr uniformity economic structures was avoided due domestic political resistance various countries. The Maastricht Trey did mention significance economic variables like balance payments, unit labor costs, etc. No mechanism was creed control systemic imbalances between Member Stes No importance was given a) uniformity pension systems, b) competitiveness labor markets, and c) uniformity tax res The Lisbon Agenda aimg improve competitiveness addressed EU member stes, not EMU stes. It was also based on method open coordion, which posed no constrs on Member Stes 11

12 Ι.B EMU formion led additional imperfections The Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) and dependence Eurosystem were considered ma pillars for Euro Area stability Independence Eurosystem worked, although threened day SGP did not work System embedded penalties for excessive deficits was relaxed after Germany and France faced first difficulties EUROSTAT auditg fiscal da proved far from perfect (Greek stistical da constitute a typical example). No Bailout Clause was presumed exist but ceased ex-post, after crisis hit The very existence Euro Area resulted absence market disciple, which allowed low terest res and resulted explosion prive and public debt As money was cheap, banks became over-extended and vulnerable Real este bubbles were formed Public Deficits certa countries went over 3% GDP limit Nomal wages proved sticky and did not allow proper adjustment external asymmetric shocks Structural reforms were abandoned, a competitive Euro Area North and an uncompetitive Euro Area South emerged 12

13 Ι.C Is re a solution? Europeans disarray are fixg an architecture with a 15 year lag Euro Area countries understand EMU dissolution is not an option: Implies huge costs fancg, trade, politics and average European livg standards The crisis revealed two needs, not necessarily complementary: Need for actions conta crisis Need for a better long-run framework, which would ensure long-term stability euro Euro Area has chosen focus on redesigng its framework and ignored need conta crisis, which has slowly grown larger and larger. In fact, new design, which comes ex-post with a 15-year lag, tends hibit actions th can counter crisis but add moral hazard The Euro Area is workg on three fronts: Harmonizion Fiscal policies - Van Rompuy proposals, fal report will be presented on Ocber 2011 EU Council Harmonizion Competitiveness policies - Euro Plus Pact Fancial stability Better regulion & supervision Fancial Institutions plus European Stability Mechanism: No-bailout clause gone, funds boosted, ability tervene primary & secondary market 13

14 I.C Yet crisis abement requires a more drastic response: Some fresh ideas On ECB role To keep dependence, ECB should transfer its SMP EFSF (Micossi 2011c) ECB should have ability guarantee debt all Euro Area countries (Wyplosz 2011) ECB should act as lender last resort not only for banks but also for governments (De Grauwe 2011b) ECB should keep SMP operions until EFSF can do it properly. EFSF under its current governance structure, is ill-suited for crisis management (De la Dehesa 2011) On EFSF (ESM) Role EFSF should be transformed a fiscal transfer mechanism (Tabelli 2011) Transformion EFSF from an SPV with capital guarantees a bank or an SPV with permanent capital. It would n borrow from market and/or ECB (Gross & Mayer 2011). Immedie Problems current structure The governance structure EFSF needs reform sce it is o slow (e.g. recent German Constitutional Law decision) for crisis management. (De Grauwe 2011b) Limited lendg ability EFSF under its current stus Member stes EFSF capital guarantees are a potential source contagion (Münchau 2011) 14

15 I.C E-bonds Jotly issued E-bonds will substitute nional sovereign debts. Rg close rg best-red nional bonds. E-bonds issuance from EFSF under strict conditionality (Suarez 2011). Yet crisis abement requires a more drastic response: Some fresh ideas E-bonds up 60% GDP each member ste (blue & red bond distction, Weizsacker-Delpa 2010) E-bonds issuance by EIB (for large vestment projects) as a growth mechanism Problems Cost fundg for best-red Euro Arra members will crease under an E-bond scheme (Ifo 2011) E-bond scheme is a source moral hazard for prlige member stes (Manasse 2010b) Common rules for fiscal policy decisions, fiscal auditg, etc., are prerequisites for troduction E-bonds (Gross, 2011) European Safe Bonds: (Brunnermeier, Garicano, Nierwerburgh, Pagano, Reis, San, Vayanos) Cree a European risk-free asset improve efficiency global portfolio allocion This can be done by Securitized bonds issued least two credit risk tranches Those bonds are colleralized by existg government bonds from every EZ country with fixed weights 15

16 I.C Is re a recipe for euro survival? European response thus far was piecemeal and relied on austerity and (perhaps) pretence (Economist (Sept 17-23)). A more holistic approach is apparently required The visit US secretary Timothy Geithner September 2011 ECOFIN Council was tended push Europeans for a drastic solution beyond narrow local country terests; serves dice EZ crisis has become global Increasgly, Economist view is promoted among policy circles: A recipe for euro survival: 1) Separe solvent from illiquid countries; Restructure debt solvent and provide unlimited backg illiquid ones; There is urgent need cree a firewall around solvent governments. Recent German and Greek discussion a large haircut ppots issue, but represents a major loss Greek pension funds and banks 2) Shore up capital base European banks be able withstand country defaults IMF s discussion on need recapitalize European banks ppots issue 3) Switch an agenda growth from current obsession with fiscal disciple Possible need follow US example handlg crisis; Meets strong German opposition as it creases moral hazard; Greece has no discretionary power 4) Redesign long-term EZ framework a way th does not allow crises, implyg change treies The design effort on new Euro Area architecture is along those les 16

17 I.D Greek economy faces major challenges Economic Outlook Expections Expections worsened worsened A A GDP GDP growth growth expected expected -5.5% -5.5% 2011, 2011, -2.5% -2.5% Inflion Inflion expected expected 2.9% 2.9% 2011, 2011, 1.5% 1.5% Budget Budget deficit deficit expected expected -8.0% -8.0% GDP GDP 2011, 2011, -7.0% -7.0% Public Public debt, debt, 142.8% 142.8% GDP GDP end end 2010, 2010, is is expected expected reach reach 165.6% 165.6% end end 2011, 2011, 189.2% 189.2% end end and and end end accordg accordg with with IMF s IMF s World World Economic Economic Outlook Outlook dabase dabase (September (September 2011). 2011). Bank Wch Prive Prive banks banks respond respond challenge challenge Deposit Deposit withdrawals withdrawals pose pose risk risk banks, banks, but but a a major major component component is is driven driven by by recession recession Contued Contued support support from from ECB ECB required required Capital Capital rios rios boosted boosted last last 2 2 years years by by ~200 ~200 b.p. b.p. Prive Prive credit credit expansion expansion -2.6% -2.6% yoy yoy June June (BoG (BoG da). da). Contuion Contuion such such a a ptern ptern will will contribute contribute a a deeper deeper recession recession Bank Bank M&As M&As have have begun begun with with FDI FDI flow flow Key Themes Risks After After five five months months (May-Sept (May-Sept 2010) 2010) aggressive aggressive reforms, reforms, momentum momentum was was lost, lost, and and a a piecemeal piecemeal approach approach implemention implemention proved proved effective effective Troika Troika sists sists on on structural structural measures measures reduce reduce deficit deficit as as MTFS MTFS implemention implemention and and privizions 24.3 privizions stall stall 21.1 Crisis Crisis spreads spreads Italy Italy Recent discussion 7.5 about a large sovereign bond Recent discussion about a large sovereign bond haircut haircut raises raises uncerty uncerty and and brgs brgs PSI PSI itiive itiive on on its its head head MTFS MTFS targets targets more more difficult difficult as as new new tighteng tighteng measures measures may may cree cree a a large large recession recession 2012, 2012, destabilizg destabilizg IMF/EU/ECB IMF/EU/ECB Programme Programme Political Political risk risk remas remas high high Risks Risks social social upheaval upheaval high high Recession Recession deepeng deepeng creases creases banks banks ECBdependence ECBdependence and and risks risks deposit deposit withdrawals withdrawals Approval Approval July July st st decisions decisions by by parliaments parliaments questionable questionable and, and, coupled coupled with with new new discussions discussions a a larger larger haircut, haircut, crease crease uncerty uncerty Contagion Contagion risks risks have have creased creased 17

18 I.D Economic Outlook: EU/IMF/ECB July 2011 basele scenario GDP Growth (%) GDP deflor (%) Nomal GDP ( bn) Current Account (% GDP) Interest Re (%) Bund Re (bps) Spread over Bund (bps) Interest Expense ( bn) Interest Expense (% GDP) Primary Expenditure (% GDP) General Gov Revenues (% GDP) Primary Balance (% GDP) General Gov Deficit (% GDP) General Gov Deficit ( bn) General Gov Debt (% GDP) General Gov Debt ( bn) Source: IMF Country Report No. 11/175 (July 4, 2011), Eurobank EFG Research; does not clude PSI

19 I.D Greek Economic Outlook: Ma characteristics EU/IMF/ECB program Long-term outlook Greek economy: Conservive future expansion Real GDP growth around 3% from 2015 on, below average. Inflion subdued, never above ECB target 2%: It is necessary break up oligopolistic market structures Current Account Balance -5.2% GDP 2015 (still no external equilibrium with Incomes deficit risg) Huge downsizg public secr: Primary Expenditure from 47.6% GDP % 2020, meang a huge reduction relevant size public secr. A negive snowball effect on Debt/GDP: Prior PSI, nomal terest re 4.6% - 6.9%, which is higher than nomal growth re (-2.2% 4.8%): Big primary surpluses needed order obta fiscal sustaability. The public debt burden eases gradually as a % GDP from 2013 onwards Public debt 130% GDP

20 I.D Greek overview: How can long-term growth come back? Elements a stregy: Avoid muddle-through economics as y can lead a slow deh trap Follow MoU a faster re than required Conta possible social upheaval through transparency actions Be more aggressive with special terest groups th extract economic rents, reduce bureaucric cost busess, open-up markets and closed pressions, emphasize educion and R&D Beg privizions soon, as y may reverse vesr clime plus may brg FDI. Privizions should not be viewed as cash maches Improve absorption Cohesion Funds, PPPs, stabilize busess sentiment, fight corruption, stabilize tax regime, simplify legislion Follow an export-led paradigm growth ( replace failed consumption-led one) based on price- and quality-competitiveness, support a switch from nontradeables tradeables secrs Free-up resources from public secr by shrkg general public secr 20

21 ΙΙ I. How can Europe & Greece exit from crisis? II. A. Hisry crisis B. Euro Area s missg foundions C. Proposed solutions Euro Area crisis D. Can Greece turn crisis an opportunity? The HBA Collective Volume s contents 21

22 ΙΙ. Why does one have read HBA volume? Because its 34 articles reader gets a bird s eye view on major issues ternional, Euro Area and Greek crises Volume ( Greek): The ternional crisis, Euro Area crisis and Greek fancial system «Η διεθνής κρίση, η κρίση στην ευρωζώνη και το ελληνικό χρηματοπιστωτικό σύστημα» 22

23 ΙI.Α Fancial secr and economic growth Section A discusses relion between fancial and real secrs an economy: 1. Χρηματοπιστωτικό σύστημα και οικονομική δραστηριότητα Δημήτριος Μόσχος, Καθηγητής του Πανεπιστημίου Αθηνών και Οικονομικός Σύμβουλος της Εμπορικής Τράπεζας Γεώργιος Χορταρέας, Αναπληρωτής Καθηγητής του Πανεπιστημίου Αθηνών 2. Χρηματοπιστωτική σταθερότητα, επενδύσεις & ανάπτυξη Δημήτρης Τσομώκος, Καθηγητής του Πανεπιστημίου της Οξφόρδης Δημήτρης Βολιώτης, Λέκτορας του Πανεπιστημίου Πειραιώς 23

24 ΙI.Β Six lessons from ternional fancial crisis Section Β concentres on issues th arose from ternional crisis 1. Εταιρική διακυβέρνηση πριν και μετά την κρίση Νικόλαος Τραυλός, Καθηγητής και Πρύτανης του ALBA 2. Διεθνής κρίση και λογιστικά πρότυπα: Επέτειναν τα λογιστικά πρότυπα το μέγεθος της κρίσης; Πόσο η κρίση επηρεάζει τα μελλοντικά πρότυπα; Άνθιμος Θωμόπουλος, Αναπλ. Διευθύνων Σύμβουλος ΕΤΕ 3. Διαχείριση Κινδύνων. Διδάγματα από την κρίση και προοπτικές Μιχαήλ Χαραλαμπίδη, πρώην Επικεφαλής Διαχ. Κινδύνων Ομίλου Τρ. Πειραιώς 4. Ο ρόλος των προθεσμιακών συμβολαίων ανταλλαγής πιστωτικού κινδύνου στην κρίση του 2008 στις ΗΠΑ και την ελληνική δημοσιονομική κρίση του 2010 Δρ. Θεόδωρος Σταματίου, οικονομολόγος Eurobank EFG Research 5. Οι απόψεις των οίκων αξιολόγησης και οι αγορές Κατερίνα Πανοπούλου, Επίκουρη Καθηγήτρια Πανεπιστημίου Πειραιώς Δρ. Χρήστος Τσούμας 6. Οι καινοτομίες στη νομισματική πολιτική στην ευρωζώνη από το 2007 έως σήμερα Παναγιώτης Αλεξάκης, Καθηγητής του Πανεπιστημίου Αθηνών 24

25 II.C Greek banks before and after crisis Section C concentres on characteristics Greek bankg system with an emphasis on its lack liquidity. 1. Τραπεζική τάσεις (πριν) και προοπτικές (μετά την κρίση) Άγγελος Α. Αντζουλάτος, Καθηγητής Πανεπιστημίου Πειραιώς 2. Συγκέντρωση και ανταγωνιστικότητα στον τραπεζικό τομέα Εμμανουήλ Τσιριτάκης, Αν Καθηγητής Πανεπιστημίου Πειραιώς Ηλίας Τσιριγωτάκης, Oικονομικός Αναλυτής ΕΤΕ 3. Χρηματοδότηση των ελληνικών τραπεζών στη διάρκεια της κρίσης Γιώργος Μιχαλόπουλος, Διευθ. Χρημ.Σχεδ. & Διαχειρίσεως Alpha Bank 4. Τιτλοποιήσεις και καλυμμένες ομολογίες ως εργαλεία ρευστότητας Νίκος Ζαγορήσιος, Διευθ. Capital Management & Εποπτείας Alpha Bank Ιωάννης Ασημέλης, Προϊστάμενος της ίδιας διεύθυνσης 25

26 ΙI.D The Greek & Euro Area crisis Macro issues Section D discusses pics debt, political economy crisis, problems pension system, needs labor reforms and unfoldg game between periphery and center Monetary Union 1. Η δυναμική του χρέους στις χώρες της ΟΝΕ και οι αντιδράσεις των χρηματοπιστωτικών αγορών Νάνσυ Θεοφυλάκου, Προϊσταμένη Τμ., Διεύθ. Μακρ.Ανάλυσης,Υπ. Οικονομικών Γιάννης Στουρνάρας, Καθ.Πανεπιστημίου Αθηνών και Γενικός Διευθυντής του ΙΟΒΕ 2. Συστημική κρίση και διαμάχες στην ευρωζώνη Αρχοντής Πάντσιος, Καθηγητής στο Αμερικανικό Κολλέγιο Θεσσαλονίκης (ACT) Καλλίνικος Νικολακόπουλος, οικονομολόγος 3. Το ελληνικό κράτος στο αναμορφωτήριο: για παρακώλυση του ανταγωνισμού και της οικονομικής ανάπτυξης, αλλά και για τάσεις αυτοκαταστροφής Μιχάλης Μασουράκης, Ανώτερος Διευθυντής Οικονομικών Μελετών Alpha Bank 4. Πολιτική οικονομία εν μέσω κρίσης Χριστόδουλος Στεφανάδης, Αναπληρωτής Καθηγητής Πανεπιστημίου Πειραιώς 5. Μεταρρύθμισητηςκοινωνικήςασφάλισηςκαιτηςαγοράςεργασίαςκαι μακροχρόνιες δημοσιονομικές προοπτικές Δημήτρης Μαρούλης, Διευθυντής της Δ. Οικονομικής Αναλύσεως Alpha Bank 26

27 ΙI.Ε Competitiveness Section E discusses pic competitiveness from a micro and macro perspective: 1. Ανταγωνισμός και ρύθμιση στις αγορές προϊόντων υπό το πρίσμα της κρίσης στην ελληνική οικονομία Νίκος Βέττας, Καθηγητής στο Οικονομικό Πανεπιστήμιο Αθηνών 2. Η απώλεια ανταγωνιστικότητας της ελληνικής οικονομίας μετά την είσοδο της χώρας στην ΟΝΕ Δημήτριος Μαλλιαρόπουλος, Καθηγητής Πανεπιστημίου Πειραιώς 3. Η εξωτερική ανισορροπία της Ελληνικής Οικονομίας: Αίτια, χαρακτηριστικά και σενάρια προσαρμογής Δρ. Αναστάσιος Αναστασάτος, οικονομολόγος Eurobank EFG Research 4. Οι ελληνικές επιχειρήσεις μετά την κρίση: Προοπτικές και στρατηγικές για διεθνή ανταγωνιστικότητα Σπύρος Λιούκας, Καθηγητής Οικονομικού Πανεπιστημίου Αθηνών 5. Αγορά εργασίας και επιχειρήσεις: κρίση και διαρθρωτικές μεταρρυθμίσεις Έλενα Σιμιντζή, υποψήφια Διδάκτωρ του London Busess School 27

28 ΙI.F Market reactions durg crisis Section F explores issues market pricg durg crisis: 1. Συστηματικά σφάλματα στις προβλέψεις των αναλυτών και τακτική κατανομή επενδύσεων Νικόλαος Κουρογένης, Επίκουρος Καθηγητής Πανεπιστημίου Πειραιώς Νικήτας Πιττής, Καθηγητής Πανεπιστημίου Πειραιώς 2. Η διεθνής χρηματοπιστωτική κρίση και η αγορά κατοικίας. Επιπτώσεις στις ελληνικές μετοχές των Ανώνυμων Εταιρειών Επενδύσεων σε Ακίνητη Περιουσία Νικόλαος Απέργης, Καθηγητής Πανεπιστημίου Πειραιώς 3. Μεταβλητότητα στο ελληνικό και στα διεθνή χρηματιστήρια κατά την περίοδο Γεώργιος Σκιαδόπουλος, Αναπληρωτής Καθηγητής Πανεπιστημίου Πειραιώς 4. Ερμηνεύοντας τα περιθώρια απόδοσης των κυβερνητικών ομολόγων της ευρωζώνης την περίοδο που ακολούθησε το ξέσπασμα της παγκόσμιας χρηματοπιστωτικής κρίσης Δρ. Πλάτων Μονοκρούσος, Επικεφαλής Διεύθ. Τρέχ.Οικ.Ανάλυσης Eurobank EFG 5. Προσδιοριστικοί παράγοντες και κυκλικές αλλαγές του σπρεντ μεταξύ των ελληνικών και γερμανικών επιτοκίων Ηλίας Τζαβαλής, Καθηγητής Οικονομικού Πανεπιστημίου Αθηνών 6. Περιγραφική απεικόνιση μη-στάσιμων χρηματοοικονομικών χρονοσειρών: Χωρικές κατανομές και χρόνος παραμονής Δημήτριος Θωμάκος, Καθηγητής Πανεπιστημίου Πελοποννήσου 28

29 ΙI.G Fancial regulion Section G discusses new issues fancial regulion, which crisis revealed: 1. «Βασιλεία ΙΙΙ»: η αναθεώρηση του ισχύοντος κανονιστικού πλαισίου της Επιτροπής της Βασιλείας για την Τραπεζική Εποπτεία με στόχο την ενδυνάμωση της σταθερότητας του διεθνούς τραπεζικού συστήματος Χρήστος Γκόρτσος, Αν. Καθ. Παντείου Πανεπιστημίου & Γεν. Γραμματέας ΕΕΤ 2. Η χρηματοοικονομική ρύθμιση και το κόστος κεφαλαίου των πιστωτικών ιδρυμάτων Σταύρος Θωμαδάκης, Καθηγητής Πανεπιστημίου Αθηνών Δρ. Κωνσταντίνος Λοΐζος 3. Η θεσμική οργάνωση της χρηματοοικονομικής εποπτείας στην Ελλάδα: Προκλήσεις και προοπτικές μετά την κρίση Παναγιώτης Σταϊκούρας, Επίκουρος Καθηγητής Πανεπιστημίου Πειραιώς 4. Η ρυθμιστική παρέμβαση στις αγορές κεφαλαίου στην Ευρωπαϊκή Ένωση ως συνέπεια της κρίσης Χριστίνα Λιβαδά, Λέκτορας Πανεπιστημίου Αθηνών, Επιστημονική συνεργάτης ΕΕΤ Δρ. Άννα Βασίλα, Επιστημονική συνεργάτης ΕΕΤ 5. Εργαλεία και τεχνικές παρακολούθησης του συστημικού κινδύνου και της χρηματοπιστωτικής σταθερότητας: Η εφαρμογή τους στο ελληνικό τραπεζικό σύστημα Δρ. Ηλίας Λεκκός, Διευθυντής Οικονομικής Ανάλυσης & Αγορών Τράπεζας Πειραιώς Γιάννης Κουτελιδάκης και Ειρήνη Στάγγελ, οικονομολόγοι της μονάδας 29

30 Conclusions The Euro Area is fixg its architecture, avoidg a fiscal union, but strengng regulion and supervision its fancial secr unificion process through a harmonizion fiscal and competitiveness policies, as necessary complements common monetary policy Yet markets have anythg but calmed, and demand a resolution crisis Resolvg crisis requires drastic actions, which tend crease moral hazard and contradict a long-term optimal EMU design, hence meetg resistance some Core European countries The drastic actions conta crisis beg by distguishg between Insolvent and illiquid countries, and between Insolvent and illiquid banks Ireland and Portugal seem manage crisis thus far, while Italy is aware required austerity actions take but is unable deliver Greece is a graver spot, with largest debt: After an itial strong reform momentum th lasted five months, implemention reforms stalled. Ownership Reform Program a necessary condition for success was never tempted. A second bailout cludg PSI - was decided on July 21 st, but its approval is still pendg; meantime, a discussion on a large haircut began The HBA book ( Greek) provides a comprehensive analysis current Greek and EZ crises, as well as earlier ternional crisis 30

31 Thank you for your tention! 31