Spatiotemporal footprint of the WNV in Greece 2010 2012: Analysis & Risk Αssessment in a GIS Εnvironment

Integrated surveillance and control programme for West Nile virus and malaria in Greece (MIS 365280) Spatiotemporal footprint of the WNV in Greece 2010 2012: Analysis & Risk Αssessment in a GIS Εnvironment YORGOS N. PHOTIS, STELIOS TSOMPANOGLOU, MICHAIL TZIOTIS, PANAGIOTIS MANETOS GeoCHOROS Research Group, National Technical University of Athens www.ygeia-pronoia.gr Co-funding by European Union www.epanad.gov.gr www.espa.gr

Data and methods 508 infection cases for the 2010 2012 period in Greece Statistical results G.I.S. Geostatistical results Central Tendency Spatiotemporal Analysis results Spatial interpolation

Data Statistics Cases per year Year Frequency Percent 2010 263 51,77% 2011 101 19,88% 2012 144 28,35% Total 508 100% Gender(2010-2012) Gender Frequency Percent Male 201 55,22% Female 163 44,78% Total 364 100,%

Infection Cases Map 2010 12 Total: 508 Prefectures Incidents of 2012 Incidents of 2011 Incidents of 2010

Infection cases per Month

Infection cases per month and year Month Incidents 2010 Incidents 2011 Incidents 2012 Total Frequency Percent Frequency Percent Frequency Percent Frequency Percent 7 0 0% 3 3% 33 23% 36 7% 8 157 60% 51 50% 74 51% 282 56% 9 98 37% 35 35% 37 26% 170 33% 10 7 3% 12 12% 0 0% 19 4% 11 1 0% 0 0% 0 0% 1 0% Total 263 100% 101 100% 144 100% 508 100%

WNV incidents per Region Region Frequency Percent ΚΕΝΤΡΙΚΗΣ ΜΑΚΕΔΟΝΙΑΣ 298 58,66% ΑΤΤΙΚΗΣ 74 14,57% ΑΝΑΤΟΛΙΚΗΣ ΜΑΚΕΔΟΝΙΑΣ ΚΑΙ ΘΡΑΚΗΣ 72 14,17% ΘΕΣΣΑΛΙΑΣ 39 7,68% ΔΥΤΙΚΗΣ ΕΛΛΑΔΑΣ 10 1,97% ΣΤΕΡΕΑΣ ΕΛΛΑΔΑΣ 7 1,38% ΒΟΡΕΙΟΥ ΑΙΓΑΙΟΥ 2 0,39% ΔΥΤΙΚΗΣ ΜΑΚΕΔΟΝΙΑΣ 2 0,39% ΙΟΝΙΩΝ ΝΗΣΩΝ 2 0,39% ΗΠΕΙΡΟΥ 1 0,20% ΝΟΤΙΟΥ ΑΙΓΑΙΟΥ 1 0,20% Σύνολο 508 100,00% WNV Incidents per Prefecture Prefecture Frequency Percent Ν. ΘΕΣΣΑΛΟΝΙΚΗΣ 100 19,69% Ν. ΠΕΛΛΑΣ 67 13,19% Ν. ΗΜΑΘΙΑΣ 58 11,42% Ν. ΑΘΗΝΩΝ 49 9,65% Ν. ΞΑΝΘΗΣ 44 8,66% Ν. ΣΕΡΡΩΝ 26 5,12% Ν. ΛΑΡΙΣΑΣ 24 4,72% Ν. ΚΙΛΚΙΣ 23 4,53% Ν. ΑΝΑΤΟΛΙΚΗΣ ΑΤΤΙΚΗΣ 22 4,33% Ν. ΚΑΒΑΛΑΣ 21 4,13% Ν. ΠΙΕΡΙΑΣ 13 2,56% Ν. ΧΑΛΚΙΔΙΚΗΣ 11 2,17% Ν. ΚΑΡΔΙΤΣΑΣ 9 1,77% Ν. ΔΡΑΜΑΣ 7 1,38% Ν. ΑΙΤΩΛΟΑΚΑΡΝΑΝΙΑΣ 5 0,98% Ν. ΑΧΑΪΑΣ 5 0,98% Ν. ΒΟΙΩΤΙΑΣ 5 0,98% Ν. ΤΡΙΚΑΛΩΝ 5 0,98% Ν. ΔΥΤΙΚΗΣ ΑΤΤΙΚΗΣ 2 0,39% Ν. ΕΥΒΟΙΑΣ 2 0,39% Ν. ΚΟΖΑΝΗΣ 2 0,39% Ν. ΛΕΥΚΑΔΑΣ 2 0,39% Ν. ΣΑΜΟΥ 2 0,39% Ν. ΑΡΤΑΣ 1 0,20% Ν. ΚΥΚΛΑΔΩΝ 1 0,20% Ν. ΜΑΓΝΗΣΙΑΣ 1 0,20% Ν. ΠΕΙΡΑΙΩΣ ΚΑΙ ΝΗΣΩΝ 1 0,20% Σύνολο 508 100,00%

Altitude Average altitude is 99,27 m with STDEV 93,87 m. Incidents recorded higher than 300 meters are only 16, reflecting the 3% of the total number of incidents for the period 2010-2012.

Spatial Analysis of Data Spatial Mean

Spatial Analysis of Data Standard Distance Year Standard Distance 2010 50618,37 2011 140041,96 2012 183707,18

2010 2011 2012 Prefectures Spatial Analysis of Data Standard Deviation Ellipse

Average Nearest Neighbor index per year Year Nearest Neighbor Ratio (D) 2010 0,328283 2011 0,421865 2012 0,194756 2010-2012 0,350169 Clustered Pattern

SCHOOL OF RURAL & SURVEYING ENGINEERING GeoCHOROS Geospatial Analysis and GIS research Group 2010

SCHOOL OF RURAL & SURVEYING ENGINEERING GeoCHOROS Geospatial Analysis and GIS research Group 2013 (Risk)

SCHOOL OF RURAL & SURVEYING ENGINEERING GeoCHOROS Geospatial Analysis and GIS research Group 2013 (Cities)

SCHOOL OF RURAL & SURVEYING ENGINEERING GeoCHOROS Geospatial Analysis and GIS research Group

Spatial Data Infection cases for all years Cities & Settlements (data per population cohort) Road Network Digital Terrain Model Hydrographic Network (rivers, lakes, streams) Land Cover (Corine 2000) Temperature and Rainfall per month and year

Map 1. Population Density Raster Dataset (Equalized) Map 2. Population Density Raster Dataset (Clipped and Equalized) Figure 1: Country Land percentage per category Map 3: Population Density Raster Categories. Grey: Category 1 (neutral) Map 4: Population Density Raster for categories #2 and #3 at the prefectural level (areas with altitude higher than 500m clipped)

Map 5. Εικόνα Final 6: Reference Τα τελικά πολύγωνα Polygons που παρήχθησαν κι αντιστοιχούν στις 309 περιοχές αναφοράς.

Reference Areas Data (309) Area Average altitude Total number of population 60+ Total number of cases for years 2010, 2011 and 2012 Average temperature for April, May and June for years 2010, 2011 and 2012 (all combinations) Total area as well as percentages for Corine land cover categories 2xx (agricultural areas), 4xx (wetlands) και 5xx (waterbodies). Number of cases in a 30 Km radius.

Area Typology Average altitude Total number of infection cases for the entire time period Percentage of water (specific) Percentage of vegetation (specific)

Dependent Variable: Number of cases per year Independent variables Previous year cases Population Density Number of previous year cases in a 30 km radius Previous year Average May temperature

Regression model PC12 = 0,026 + 0,121*( pop_density) - 0.00018*( buf30all_2011) +0,335* (PC_itcntry2011) -0,002*( W5T2012)

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