A CTA GEO GRA PH ICA S IN ICA

55 2 2000 3 A CTA GEO GRA PH ICA S IN ICA V o l. 55, N o. 2 M ar., 2000 : 037525444 (2000) 0220129210 1, 1, Guen ther F ischer 2, Sylvia P rieler 2 (11, 100101; 21, ) : 1958 1997 310,, 3, H adcm 2 CGCM 1 ECHAM 4, 6, 3 GCM s, ( IIA SA ) (A EZ) : ; ; ; : P467; F32919 : A, (IPCC),, 10 012 [1 ],, 10 [2 ],,, [3 ]!, [4 ] 1 CO 2 2 CO 2, (GCM ) CO 2,, [4 ],,, 1 111 : 1999211226; : 2000201228 : (962920213), (IIA SA ) 1999 (YSSP1999) [Foundation Item: Key P ro ject of N ineth F iveyearp lan, N o. 962920213; Young Scientist Summ er P rogram at the International Institute fo r A pp lied System s A nalysis, N o. YSSP1999 ] : (19692),,, E2m ail: lixd@ dls1iog1ac1cn

130 55,, 1958 1997, 310,,, G IS ( 1) 1 Tab11 The reference ra infall, average max imum and m in imum temperature in Ch ina gmm g g 637 2410 9316 40917 11010 2915 1519 017 1714 2818 1618-1117 413-1013 416 1810 510 631 1819 9010 41010 11211 2614 913-916 1019 2514 1016-2317 - 215-2116 - 118 1418-115 1255 14715 34611 51916 24211 3019 1818 618 1719 2917 2017-214 1013-111 911 2113 1118 1406 16616 52314 50011 21517 3110 1819 710 1814 2919 2014-114 1016-017 1012 2112 1119 1577 14610 47118 62417 33414 3110 2315 1515 2311 3013 2419 714 1519 811 1518 2214 1711 1028 5415 22413 51619 23217 2413 1614 812 1714 2314 1616-310 616-212 617 1414 716 346 1512 7015 18111 7912 2617 1118-319 1316 2515 1210-1817 - 114-1619 - 012 1216-112 287 1913 5916 15316 5510 1414 416-510 418 1317 419-2211 - 914-2011 - 819 016-912 112 CO 2 ( ),,, [5 ], 4, 3 GCM, H adcm 2, CGCM 1 (T he first version of the Canadian Global Coup led M odel) ECHAM 4 3, CO 2 215 315 216 3, 6 2 3 GCM s 113 GCM s,, GCM ; GCM, 2 11311 (1) H adcm 2 GX, 2020s 2050s 2080s 115 215 318 (2), ; H adcm 2 GX, 2020s 2050s 2080s 118 218 414, 116 211 313, CGCM 1 GG, 2020s 2050s 2080s

2 : 131 215 419 715, 118 317 518 2 3 Ξ Tab12 The deta ils of three GCM s and six climate change scenar ios H adcm 2 CGCM 1 ECHAM 4 3175 2175 3175 3175 218125 218125 96 73 96 48 128 64 H adcm 2- GX H adcm 2- GS CGCM 1- GG CGCM 1- GS ECHAM 4- GG ECHAM 4- GS 2020s, 2050s, 2080s 2020s, 2050s, 2080s 2020s, 2050s, 2080s Ξ GX ; GG H adcm 2, 015%, 1% ; GS +, 3, 3 GCM 015 015, 2020s 2010 2039 ; 2050s 2040 2069 ; 2080s 2070 2099 ; ( ) 30 (3) H adcm 2 GX, CGCM 1 GG CGCM 1 GS,,,, 11312,, GCM s, : (1) ( CGCM 1 GS ), H adcm 2 GX CGCM 1 GG ECHAM 4 GG3, 2020s 2050s 2080s 518% 1014% 1816% ; 112% 417% 215% 812% 1014% 1316% (2), H adcm 2, CGCM 1, ECHAM 4 3, 2020s 2050s 2080s 419% 714% 1119% ; 314% 711% 1012% 1215% 1510% 2016% (2) H adcm 2 GX ECHAM 4 GG, ; H adcm 2 GS CGCM 1 GS, (3) H adcm 2, ; CGCM 1,,, ECHAM 4,

132 55 2 211 (Agro- Ecolog ica l Zon ing), (IIA SA ) (A EZ) 20 70, (FAO ) [6 ], FAO IIA SA, A EZ 1996 IIA SA [5, 7 ], A EZ 3,,,, G IS,, 212,, + 21211 1 H adcm 2 GX, + 1,, : (1), +, 2020s 2050s 2080s 14% 20% 34% (H adcm 2 GX ), 12% 21% 42% (CGCM 1 GG ) 12% 19% 22% (ECHAM 4 GG ) (2),,,, (3) +,,, +,, + (4), +,,, 21212 3

2 : 133 1 H adcm 2 GX, + F ig11 Changes of M ulti2cropp ing index under H adcm 2 GX scenario fo r irrigated and rain2fed conditions

134 55 3 + (% ) Tab13 Impacts of climate change on arable land area in Ch ina for irr igated & ra in-fed condition s (% ) g hm 2 H adcm 2 GX H adcm 2 GS CGCM 1 GG CGCM 1 GS ECHAM 4 GG ECHAM 4 GS 20s 50s 80s 20s 50s 80s 20s 50s 80s 20s 50s 80s 20s 50s 80s 20s 50s 80s 2 52416 5 5 4 3 4 5 2 2012-11 012-2 - 3 5 5 3 5 - - 2 66317 16 21 25 6 13 19 18 27 27 17 23 28 21 28 31 18 - - 89815-7 - 13-21 - 2-2 - 9-25 - 42-36 - 8-22 - 30-10 - 19-28 - 6 - - 1 53814-21 - 34-46 - 1-4 - 24-38 - 50-44 - 12-29 - 37-25 - 41-47 - 12 - - + 68017-1 - 12-10 - 5 9 28 7 35 79 20 43 90-7 - 5-6 12 - - 1 78517-16 - 24-31 - 11-11 - 18-25 - 28-9 - 15-14 - 4-20 - 27-34 - 16 - - 1 85218 55 75 97 29 43 73 50 74 48 25 53 76 72 100 130 42 - - 6414 13 76 83 13 61 186 112 133 375 56 73 249 78 118 212 27 - - 12 00818 715 810 912 413 911 1217 215 615 718 416 814 1612 919 1215 1511 719 - - 2 51116 5 4 6 3 4 5 2 011-12 2012-2 - 4 5 6 3 5 - - 2 55319 17 23 34 7 14 20 19 27 27 17 23 28 22 30 32 19 - - 90616-6 - 12-19 2012-1 - 9-22 - 39-36 - 6-21 - 29-8 - 17-26 - 4 - - 1 51914-21 - 33-40 - 2-4 - 23-39 - 50-44 - 11-29 - 37-25 - 41-48 - 12 - - 67512 1-12 - 4-4 10 30 7 38 80 22 43 91-5 - 3-4 12 - - 1 78216-16 - 24-24 - 11-11 - 19-25 - 27-9 - 15-14 - 5-20 - 28-34 - 16 - - 1 44312 70 96 157 36 55 93 61 93 55 28 65 93 92 129 169 52 - - 5615 9 68 149 12 63 206 112 129 399 52 66 264 80 115 220 18 - - 11 449 810 815 1810 416 916 1314 213 617 619 415 812 1610 1017 1314 1612 812 - - 3 :, H adcm 2 GS +, 2020s 2050s 2080s 6% 13% 19%, H adcm 2 GX, 2020s 2050s 2080s 6% 12% 19%, +, +, 215% 1612% ;, 213% 1810%, 21213 4 : ;,, CGCM 1 GG,, 2020s 2050s 2080s 517% 116% 513%, 213 2 CGCM 1 GG, + 2,, :

2 : 135 2 CGCM 1 GG, + F ig12 Changes of land p roductivity under CGCM 1 GG scenario fo r irrigated and rain2fed conditions

136 55 4 + (% ) Tab14 Impacts of climate change on cereal production in Ch ina for irr igated & ra in-fed condition s (% ) H adcm 2 GX H adcm 2 GS CGCM 1 GG CGCM 1 GS ECHAM 4 GG ECHAM 4 GS 1 000 t 20s 50s 80s 20s 50s 80s 20s 50s 80s 20s 50s 80s 20s 50s 80s 20s 50s 80s 160 747 14 12 20-2 1 4-1 - 3-17 1-2 - 11 9 11 9 4 - - 109 114 35 51 71 14 23 40 37 64 61 31 52 56 43 60 86 34 - - 72 400 2013-7 - 17 2012 3-6 - 23-46 - 37-7 - 24-37 - 6-18 - 30-4 - - 103 043-22 - 35-43 - 1-3 - 25-34 - 44-41 - 13-35 - 35-26 - 38-47 - 15 - - + 43 204-2 - 13-16 - 7 2 10-5 - 9-15 17 32 22-9 - 12-20 7 - - 72075-12 - 18-28 - 9-5 - 12-26 - 25-11 - 10-10 6-18 - 29-38 - 15 - - 65 704 43 61 97 22 30 57 46 88 72 25 53 80 59 88 133 33 - - 2 126-10 34 42-5 21 109 51 109 361 14 54 194 24 75 191-3 - - 628 431 818 910 1415 217 617 819 2015 318 119 514 617 811 812 1013 1418 614 - - 124 496 18 15 43-2 2013 3-9 - 13-30 013-9 - 22 12 13 8 6 - - 92 630 36 56 88 14 24 42 37 69 65 31 54 55 47 68 92 35 - - 63 141-3 - 10-6 - 1 0-9 - 28-48 - 41-9 - 29-41 - 9-20 - 32-5 - - 98 597-23 - 36-35 - 1-3 - 26-36 - 46-44 - 14-35 - 39-27 - 38-48 - 15 - - 41 866-6 - 14-9 - 8 011 7-10 - 14-24 13 28 13-12 - 17-24 1 - - 71 658-12 - 18-28 - 9-5 - 12-26 - 26-13 - 11-11 3-18 - 29-39 - 14 - - 37 233 61 80 232 29 39 81 59 116 83 24 61 101 88 125 193 43 - - 1 859-22 11 101-12 10 103 31 70 328-2 24 157 9 34 148-19 - - 531 490 718 713 3014 118 516 712 2517 2116 2513 311 213 114 716 910 1212 512 - - H adcm 2 GX +, 2020s 2050s 2080s 1610% 2419% 3618% ; 1211% 1011% 3513%, H adcm 2 GX +, 2020s 2050s 2080s 615% 213% 511% ; 114% 111% 610%,, ; +, ;,, +, 115% 710% ;, 111% 1216% 3, : GCM ;

2 : 137, ; A EZ, [5 8 ] : (1),, H adcm 2 GX, 2020s 2050s 2080s 115 215 318,,,,, (2),,, + ;, + (3),,,, +, 215% 1612% ;, 213% 1810% (4),,, +, 115% 710% ;, 111% 1216%, (References) [1 ] Hough ton J T, M eira F ilho L G, Callander BA et al. C lim ate change 1995 T he science of clim ate change: contribution of wo rk ing group I to the second assessm ent repo rt of the internationalpanel on clim ate change[m ]. M elbourne (A ustralia): the P ress Syndicate of the U niversity of Cam bridge, 1996. [ 2 ] Cynth ia R, D aniel H. C lim ate Change and the Global H arvest: Po tential Impacts of Greenhouse Effect on A griculture [M ]. N ew Yo rk: O xfo rd U niversity P ress, 1998. [ 3 ] Cai Yunlong, Sm it Barry. V ulnerability and A dap tation of Ch inese A griculture to Global C lim ate Change [J ]. A cta Geograph ica Sinica, 1996, 51 (3): 202 210. ( In Ch inese) [, Barry Sm iṫ [J ]., 1996, 51 (3): 202 210. ] [4 ] L in E rda, W ang Houxuan, W ang J inghua et al. M odeling the impacts of global clim ate change on Ch inese agriculture[m ]. Beijing: Ch inese A griculture T echno logy Publish ing House, 1997. [M ]. :, 1997. ] ( In Ch inese) [,,. [5 ] F ischer G, V elthuizen H T. C lim ate change and global agricultural po tential p ro ject: A case study of Kenya [M ]. T he wo rk ing paper of IIA SA, 1996. [6 ] FAO. R epo rt on the agro2eco logical zones p ro jecṫ W o rlds So il R esources R epo rt 48[M ]. FAO, Rom e, 1978281. [7 ] FAO. A gro2eco logical assessm ents fo r national p lanning: the examp le of Kenya. FAO So ils Bulletin 67[M ]. FAO, Rom e, 1993. [8 ] FAO. A gro2eco logical zoning Guidelineṡ FAO So ils Bulletin 73[M ]. FAO, Rom e, 1996.

138 55 Climate Change and Its Im pacts on Ch ina s Agr iculture TAN G Guo2p ing 1, L I X iu2b in 1, Guen ther F ischer 2, Sylvia P rieler 2 (11Institu te of Geog rap hy, Ch inese A cad em y of S ciences, B eij ing 100101; 21Interhational Institu te of A pp lied S y stem s A naly sis, A ustria) Abstract: T hough analyze the po ten tial impacts of global clim ate change on Ch ina s agricu ltu re, the m ean ingfu l reference fo r Ch ina s agricu ltu re in the fu tu re can be show n. F irst, acco rding to the h isto rical m eteo ro logical data from 310 clim ato logical station s du ring 1958 1997, the baseline clim ate in Ch ina is analyzed. T hen, th ree general circu lation models, i. e., H adcm 2, CGCM 1 and ECHAM 4 are cho sen and m eanw h ile six clim ate change scenario s con structed. T h ree models above are u sed to sim u late Ch ina s clim ate changes under differen t scenario s fo r th ree periods 2020s, 2050s and 2080ṡ U nder th ree model run s, air temperatu re is expected to increase in all region s of Ch ina. Fo r examp le, under H adcm 2 GX scenario, annual m ean air temperatu re w ill increase 1. 5, 2. 5 and 3. 8 in 2020s, 2050s, 2080s respectively. In addition, the increasing m agn itude of air temperatu re in h igh latitude area is larger than that in low latitude area, and in in land area larger than that in coastal area. F inally, based on th ree GCM s resu lts, an exp licit geograph ic model, i. e., the A EZ model developed and imp roved at IIA SA, is app lied to assess the impacts of clim ate change on Ch ina s agricu ltu ral land p roductivity. T he impact assessm en t m ain ly focu ses on the changes of m u lti2cropp ing index, land p roductivity, arab le land area and to tal po ten tial cereal p roduction. T he findings show : (1) T he average m agn itude of increase in m u lti2cropp ing index is larger in the sou thw est, cen tral and no rth of Ch ina than that in the no rthw est and sou th of Ch ina. (2) D ue to clim ate change, the increasing temperatu re and rainfall in the no rtheast, no rthw est and p lateau of Ch ina has a po sitive influence on their arab le land area and to tal po ten tial cereal p roduct ion. Conversely, the increa sing tem p era tu re and decrea sing ra infa ll in the sou theast, cen tral and sou thw est of Ch ina has a negative influence on their arab le land area and po ten tial cereal p roduction. Fo r w ho le Ch ina, arab le land area is p ro jected to increase in a new clim ate condition. T he changing scope of arab le land area varies from 215% to 1612% under irriga ted and ra in2fed cond it ion, and from 213% to 1810% under ra in2fed cond it ion. ( 3) C lim a te change affect s land p roduct ively in no rthea stern Ch ina po sit ively. How ever, it ha s a nega t ive influence on land p roduct ively in sou thw estern Ch ina and T ibet. O n the average, clim a te change affect s land p roduct ivity in Ch ina negatively. T he decreasing scope changes from 1. 5% to 7. 0% under irrigated and rain2fed condition, and from 1. 1% to 12. 6% under rain2fed condition. Key words: Global clim ate change; General C ircu lation M odel; A gro2eco logical Zon ing; L and p roductivity; Ch ina