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: 3 41 1998-2001 A,, 1998 6 5, 2002 1, 55 A, 458 137,,,,, ;, :, 2001 28 2002 7 24, 10% ; 10% ; ; 70%,, : ; : 61005: yyyi @ sina. com : 0592-2187287 (70142001) (2002 12, ) 20038 53

: (A squ ith and M u llin s, 1986; M asu lis and Ko rw ar, 1986),?? :,,,,, : (free2 cash2flow hypo thesis, FCF ) (peck ing2o rder hypo thesis, PO ) Jen sen (1986),,,,,,, L ang L itzenberger (1989),, L ehn Pou lsen (1989), L ang Stu lz W alk ling (1991), q M ann Sicherm an (1991),, D en is ( 1994) Servaes (1994) V ogt (1997) D en is, q 1, Servaes V ogt, Szew czyk (1996), q,, M yers (1984) M yers M ajluf (1984),,,,,,,,,,,, Bask in (1989),, Shyam 2Sunder M yers (1999) ( q, q,, (M TB ), q,m TB 1 ( ), M TBq 1 M TB 1,,, q 20038 54

) Op ler (1999), H elw ege L iang (1996),,, Ch irinko Singha ( 2000 ) Shyam 2Sunder M yers (1999), F rank Goyal(2002), (2002), (2002),,,,,,,,, ; :,, :, ;, : 1:,, 2:,,, (),,,,, : (Shyam 2Sunder and M yers, 1999; F rank and Goyal, 2003),, ;,,,,, ;,,, : :,, ; 20038 55

:, 4:,, ; 1 1 1 27 2 2 7 1 A B C D F G K : ( ) 1998 2001 A : 1. A, A ; 2. 1998 6 2001 ; 3. 250 ; 4. ; 5. 41 1 ( ), : (CF), L ehn Pou lson (1989) L ang Stu lz W alk ling (1991), L ehn Pou lson (1989) H an sen ( 1992), L ang L itzenberg ( 1989 ) L ang Stu lz W alk ling (1991) N ohel T arhan (1998) q, Jaggi Gu l(1999) ( IO S),, L ehn Pou lson (1989), : CF = - - - - (1) (GR ) = ( t- t- 1) g t- 1 (2), (2), 2 2, GR CF :, GR CF, q,, q,, q 1, L ang Stulz W alk ling (1991) : CF = ( - - - - ) g 20038 56

2 GR, GR < 0. 4187 GR, GR > 0. 4187 CF CF< 0. 0926 CF< 0. 0926 CF CF> 0. 0926 CF> 0. 0926, (47% ),, (D E F ), Shyam 2Sunder M yers (1999) : D E F = + + + - + (3), (3) (D E F ) : S IZ E: = ln ( ) L : = g D IV :, RO E: = M TB : = g P P E: = g CF GR S IZ E L D IV D E F RO E M TB P P E 0. 093 0. 419 21. 835 0. 466 0. 012 0. 005 0. 119 1. 436 0. 286 0. 571 4. 540 19. 737 0. 826 0. 066 0. 517 0. 314 2. 472 0. 640 0. 011-0. 516 23. 490 0. 185 0-2. 182 0. 005 0. 988 0. 061 0. 086 0. 835 21. 906 0. 163 0. 018 0. 396 0. 067 0. 407 0. 152 ( ) 1. (CA R ) i t : R δ it= Α δ i+ Β δ ir m t (4) R m t= I tgi t- 1-1 (5), Α δ it Β δ it 250 20 : R it= Αi+ ΒiR m t+ ΕitΕit (0, Ρ 2 ) (6) R it= P itgp it- 1-1 (7) P it P it- 1 i t t- 1, I t I t- 1 t t- 1 i t (A R it), : A R it= R it- R δ it (8) 0, [ - 1, 2 ] (CA R ) : CA R i = 2 A R it (9) t= - 1 CA R,,, 2. CA R = Α0+ Β1CF + Β2G + Β3CF D um m y - G + Β4S iz e+ Β5L + Β6D IV 20038 57

: + ΒiInd ustry i+ Ε (10) : Ind ustry i, ( 1), i= A B C D F G 1 G< 0. 4187,D um m y - G= 0 G> 0. 4187 3. CA R = Α0+ Β1D E F + Β2D E F D um m y - L + Β3RO E + Β4M TB + Β5S iz e+ Β6P P E + ΒiInd ustry i+ Ε (11) 1 L < 0. 47,D um m y - L = 0 L > 0. 47, (10),, ( ),,,, (10),, (11),, (), ( ), ;,, ( ) 1,,, - 1. 49%, t 1% (4),, 0, 1 2, (A squ ith and M u llin s, 1986; M asu lis and Ko rw ar, 1986) 1 4 t - 1 0 1 2 CA R 0. 0029-0. 0120-0. 0154-0. 0120 t 0. 939-2. 303-2. 017-2. 786 L ehn Pou lson (1989), 2 : 2 CAR 1, CFGR, A squith M ullins (1986), - 2. 7% ; - 0. 9% M asulis Ko rw ar (1986), - 2. 2%, - 0. 39% 20038 58

CFGR 2,, M ann2w h itney, 2 5% ( 4, : 0. 66, 0. 25, 0. 136, 0. 05), 1, L ang (1991) (2002),,, M ann2w h itney ( 4, : 0. 46, 0. 85, 0. 53, 0. 6), 2 F rank Goyal (2002) (2002) CAR ( ) 5 (10) (11), 5 1 2,, - 0. 017, 0. 356-0. 042,,,,,,,, (V ogt, 1997),, 3,, 5 4, 0. 782,, ( ), - 0. 531,, 4,, 4, 4, 20038 59

: 5 p p p Α 0. 215 0. 285 0. 453 3 0. 056 0. 494 3 0. 068 CF - 0. 017 0. 924 0. 047 0. 900 GR 0. 356 0. 101 0. 291 0. 307 CF DUM M Y - GR - 0. 042 0. 878 0. 032 0. 900 S IZ E - 0. 271 0. 104-0. 420 3 0. 051-0. 473 3 0. 052 L 0. 086 0. 699 - - 0. 112 0. 667 D IV 0. 234 0. 217 - - 0. 177 0. 505 D E F - - 0. 782 0. 267 1. 008 0. 389 D E F DUM M Y - L - - - 0. 531 0. 431-0. 770 0. 482 RO E - - 0. 034 0. 851-0. 161 0. 569 M TB - - - 0. 150 0. 463-0. 081 0. 728 P P E - - - 0. 280 0. 144-0. 328 0. 172 A - 0. 124 0. 586-0. 216 0. 226-0. 144 0. 483 B - 0. 021 0. 931-0. 106 0. 712-0. 018 0. 958 C 0. 132 0. 795-0. 153 0. 564-0. 088 0. 776 D 0. 042 0. 880 0. 384 0. 215 0. 214 0. 599 F - 0. 157 0. 579 0. 182 0. 488 0. 325 0. 318 G 0. 186 0. 668-0. 290 0. 353-0. 414 0. 245 R 2 0. 006 0. 069-0. 090 : A B C D F G, 1 5 56,,,,,,,, R 2 0. 6% 6. 9%, 41 1998-2001 A,,,, ;,,,,,, 20038 60

,,,,,, : (2002) :,, 2002 (2002) :, (2002 ) A squish, P., and D. W. M ullins (1986) : Equity Issues and O ffering D ilution, J ou rna l of F inancia l E conom ics 15, pp. 61-89. Bask in, J. ( 1989 ) : A n Emp irical Exam ination of the Peck ing O rder H ypo thesis, F inancial M anagem ent 18-1 (Sp ring), pp. 26-35. Ch irinko, R. S., and A. R. Singha (2000) : T esting Static T rade2off against Pecking O rder M odels of Cap ital Structure: A C ritical Comm ent, J ournal of F inancial E conom ics 58-3, pp. 417-425. D enis, D. J., D. K. D enis, and A. Sarin (1994) : T he Info rm ation Content of D ividend Changes: Cash F low Sinalling, O verinvestm ent, and D ividend C lientele, J ournal of F inancial and Q uantitative A naly sis 29-4, pp. 567-587. F rank, M. Z., and V. D. Goyal ( 2003): T esting the Peck ing O rder T heo ry of Cap ital Structure, J ou rna l of F inancia l E conom ics, 67-2: pp. 217-248. H ansen, R. C. ( 1992 ) : T ender O ffers and F ree Cash F low: A n Emp irical A nalysis, T he F inancia l R ev iew 27-2 (M ay), pp. 185-209. H elw ege, J., and N. L iang ( 1996) : Is T here a Peck ing O rder Evidence from a Panel of IPO F irm s? J ou rna l of F inancial E conom ics 40: pp. 429-458. Jaggi, B., and F. Gul ( 1999 ) : A n A nalysis of Jo int Effects of Investm ent Oppo rtunity Set, F ree Cash F low and Size on Co rpo rate D ebt Po licy, R ev iew of Q uantitative F inance and A ccounting 12, pp. 371-381. Jensen, M. C. (1986) : A gency Co sts of F ree Cash F low, Co rpo rate F inance, and T akeovers, A m erican E conom ic R ev iew 76, pp. 323-339. L ang, L., R. Stulze, and R. W alk ling (1991) : A T est of the F ree Cash F low H ypo thesis, the Case of B idder Returns, J ournal of F inancial E conom ics 29, pp. 315-335. L ang, L. H. P., and R. H. L itzenberger (1989) : D ividend A nnouncem ents: Cash F low Signalling vs. F ree Cash F low H ypo thesis? J ournal of F inancial E conom ics 24, pp. 181-191. L ehn, K., and A. Poulsen (1989) : F ree Cash F low and Stockho lder Gains in Go ing P rivate T ransactions, T he J ou rnal of F inance X L IV 3 (July), pp. 771-787. M ann, S. V., and N. W. Sicherm an (1991) : T he A gency Co sts of F ree Cash F low: A cquisition A ctivity and Equity Issues, J ou rnal of B usiness 64 (2), pp. 213-227. M asulis, R. W., and A. N. Ko rw ar ( 1986 ) : Seasoned Equity O ffering: A n Emp irical Investigation, J ou rnal of F inancial E conom ics 15, pp. 91-118. M yers, S. C. ( 1984 ) : T he Cap ital Structure Puzzle, J ournal of F inance 39-3 (July), pp. 575-592. M yers, S. C., and N. M ajluf (1984) : Co rpo rate F inancing and Investm ent D ecisions w hen F irm s H ave Info rm ation that Investo rs Do N o t H ave, J ou rnal of F inancial E conom ics 13, pp. 187-221. N ohel T., and V. T arhan (1998) : Share Repurchases and F irm Perfo rm ance: N ew Evidence on the A gency Co sts of F ree Cash F low, J ou rnal of F inancial E conom ics 49, pp. 187-222. Op ler, T., L. P inkow itz, R. Stulz, and R. W illiam son ( 1999) : T he D eterm inants and Imp lications of Co rpo rate Cash Ho ldings, J ournal of F inancial E conom ics 52, pp. 3-46. Servaes, H enri (1994) : Do T akeover T argets O verinvest? T he R ev iew of F inancial S tud ies 7-2, pp. 253-277. Shyam - Sunder, L., and S. C. M yers (1999) : T esting Static T rade2off A gainst Pecking O rder M odels of Cap ital Structure, J ournal of F inancial E conom ics 51, pp. 219-244. Szew czyk, S. H., G. P. T setseko s, and Z. Zantout ( 1996 ) : T he V aluation of Co rpo rate R&D Expenditures: Evidence from Investm ent Oppo rtunities and F ree Cash F low, F inancial M anagem ent 25-1 (Sp ring), pp. 105-110. V ogt, S. C. ( 1997) : Cash F low and Cap ital Spending: Evidence from Cap ital Expenditure A nnouncem ents, F inancial M anag em ent 26-2 (Summ er), pp. 44-57. (: 2003 : ) 20038 61