OCTOBER ELKE GEIEREGGER, Associate Director SAURABH CHAWLA, Associate Director HVS LONDON OFFICE

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1 OCTOBER ELKEGEIEREGGER,AssociateDirector SAURABHCHAWLA,AssociateDirector HVSLONDONOFFICE

2 HotelValuesinRussia,theCISandGeorgia 2009 Theobjectiveofthispublicationistoprovideanindicationofhotelvaluesandtrendsinthemainmarketsof Russia,theCISandGeorgiaandtoshowhowvaluesintheregionhavebeenaffectedbytheglobaleconomic crisis,andthesubsequentreductionintradingandinvestorappetite.thispublicationalsooutlinesthehvs valuationmethodologyforhotelsthathasbecometheindustrystandardthroughouttheworld. ArticleOutline Almaty,Kazakhstan Astana,Kazakhstan Baku,Azerbaijan Kazan,Russia Introduction Kiev,Ukraine Moscow,Russia RostovonDon,Russia Samara,Russia StPetersburg,Russia Tbilisi,Georgia Yekaterinburg,Russia Yerevan,Armenia HotelValuesintheRegion 2

3 Table1 MainConsiderationsforHotelValuation RevPARPerformance RevenueMix(Rooms,foodandbeverage,other) Cos tstructure/netoperatingincome HotelMarketStructure(brandedand/orqualitysupply) PlannedNewSupply(confirmed) MarketOutlook InvestorSentiment Table3 HVSEstimatesofHotelValues( ) Moscow 518, , ,000 StPetersburg 422, , ,000 EuropeanAverage 274, , ,000 Ba ku 292, , ,000 Kiev 427, , ,000 Alma ty 418, , ,000 Astana 329, , ,000 Average Russia,theCIS andgeorgia 280, , ,000 Tbilisi 273, , ,000 Yekaterinburg 143, , ,000 Kaza n 119, , ,000 RostovonDon 126, ,000 96,000 Samara 156, ,000 88,000 Yerevan 134, ,000 85,000 Source:HVSLondonOffice Table2 ListofCitiesConsidered Armenia Azerbaijan Yerevan Baku Georgia Kazakhstan Russia Tbilisi Almaty Astana Kazan Mos cow RostovonDon Samara StPetersburg Yekaterinburg Ukraine Kiev 3

4 Table4 ValueRanking Moscow StPetersburg EuropeanAverage Baku Kiev Almaty Astana Average Russia,theCISand Georgia Tbilisi Yekaterinburg Ka za n RostovonDon Samara Yerevan Source:HVSLondonOffice Table5 ValueChangeinEuro200809(%) Growth/Decline Kiev 12% 48% StPetersburg 6% 46% Samara 7% 39% Almaty 30% 35% Moscow 10% 33% Average Russia,theCISandGeorgia 15% 33% Yekaterinburg +3% 28% RostovonDon +6% 28% Tbilisi 22% 27% Ka za n +9% 22% Astana 32% 20% Baku 16% 16% Yerevan 25% 15% EuropeanAverage 11% 13% Source:HVSLondonOffice Table6 ValueChangeinLocalCurrency200809(%) Growth/Decline StPetersburg 5% 34% Tbilisi 23% 29% Samara 6% 27% Almaty 26% 25% Kiev 2% 24% Baku 21% 21% Average Russia,theCISandGeorgia 21% 20% Moscow 9% 20% Yekaterinburg +5% 13% EuropeanAverage 11% 13% RostovonDon +7% 13% Astana 28% 7% Yerevan 28% 5% Kazan +10% 5% Source:HVSLondonOffice 4

5 MarketOverviews Moscow,Russia StPetersburg,Russia Baku,Azerbaijan Kiev,Ukraine 5

6 Almaty,Kazakhstan 6 Astana,Kazakhstan. Tbilisi,Georgia

7 Kazan,Russia RostovonDon,Russia Yekaterinburg,Russia 7

ChallengesfortheValuerintheRegion Samara,Russia Yerevan,Armenia 8 TheHotelValuationMethodology 1 DefinitionofMarketValue: theestimatedamountforwhich anassetshouldexchangeonthedateofvaluation[here,31

8 ChallengesfortheValuerintheRegion Samara,Russia Yerevan,Armenia 8 TheHotelValuationMethodology 1 DefinitionofMarketValue: theestimatedamountforwhich anassetshouldexchangeonthedateofvaluation[here,31 December2009]betweenawillingbuyerandawillingseller in an arm s length transaction after proper marketing whereinthepartieshadeachactedknowledgeably,prudently andwithoutcompulsion. AppraisalandValuationStandards

9 Income Capitalisation approach Cost approach Table7 IndicativeConstructionCosts( ) Countries Economy Midscale Upscale Upper Upscale Ukra ine 35,000 75, , ,000 Kaza khs ta n 45, , ,000 Russ ia 60,000 90, , ,000 Armenia 160,000 Azerba ija n 80,000 Georgia 55, , ,000 Source:RichardChancellor,2010 Sales Comparison approach Table8 RecentHotelTransactionsintheRegion( ) Property Location SaleDate Number ofrooms Estimated Price PricePer Room BudapestJSC(55%stake) Moscow March * 45,900, ,000 ParkInnEkaterinburg Ekaterinburg July ,500, ,000 TheSadovayaHotel StPetersburg January ,000, ,000 IrisCongressHotel(50%stake) Moscow October * 43,800, ,000 SheratonMetechiPalaceHotel Tbilisi June ,400, ,000 * Pro rated room count based on stake percentage acquired. Source: HVS Research Selected Transactions 9

10 ConclusionandOutlook Note: This publication serves as a value indicator only in order to provide a point of orientation for owners and investors. As experienced with the European HVI, this publication s reliability increases as more and more hotels contributetheirdataandthemarketsreachagreaterdegree ofstability.noinvestmentdecisionshouldbebasedsolelyon the information contained in this article. For feasibility studies, valuations and strategic advice, please contact Elke GeiereggerorSaurabhChawla. Table9 Russia,theCISandGeorgia/EuropeanHVIValueComparison2009( ) Riga Tallinn Samara Rostov on Don Zagreb Belgrade Sofia Yerevan Kazan Yekaterinburg Bucharest Lisbon Budapest Birmingham Bratislava Manchester Frankfurt Prague Dublin Warsaw RUSSIA/CIS/GEORGIA AVERAGE Brussels Tbilisi Berlin Hamburg Vienna Athens Munich Almaty Copenhagen Astana Kiev Baku Edinburgh Stockholm EUROPE St Petersburg Barcelona Madrid Amsterdam Moscow Milan Istanbul Rome Zürich Geneva London Paris 0 100, , , , , ,000 10

11 AbouttheAuthors Elke Geieregger Direct Line: Saurabh Chawla Direct Line: Orvisithvs.com HVS

12 AboutHVS The ValuationofHotelsandMotels 12

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