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18 Figure 1 US GDP and Exports, , , , , , , , billions $ billions $1992 Total Exports GDP Source: Economic Report of The President,

19 Industry Table 1: Shipments and Direct Exports by Industry: 1987, (Plants with >20 employees) Shipments Direct Exports Growth Growth Rank Value Rank Change Rank Value Rank Value Rank Change Rank ($Millions) ($Millions) ($Millions) Value ($Millions) Food 308, , % 6 5, , % 8 Tobacco 20, , % 1 1, , % 4 Textiles 59, , % , % 5 Apparel 54, , % , % 3 Wood 56, , % 16 1, , % 15 Furniture 34, , % % 1 Paper 106, , % 7 4, , % 16 Printing 98, , % , % 2 Chemicals 210, , % 2 17, , % 18 Petroleum 121, , % 12 1, , % 10 Rubber 80, , % 3 2, , % 9 Leather 8, , % % 19 Stone 52, , % 20 1, , % 14 Primary Metals 115, , % 13 2, , % 6 Fabricated Metals 130, , % 17 4, , % 13 Machinery 198, , % 11 19, , % 11 Electronics 164, , % 4 11, , % 12 Transportation 326, , % 10 34, , % 20 Instruments 103, , % 5 11, , % 17 Miscellaneous 26, , % , % 7 Total 2,280,201 2,732,362 18% 124, ,31 8 Source: Census of Manufactures, 1987 and Growth is calculated as the difference in natural logs. 55% 1 As mentioned above, direct exports systematically undercount total industry exports and are reported here to indicate the relative magnitude of the changes that took place during the period. 18

20 Industry % Plants Exporters Table 2: Export Participation by Industry and 1992 Share of Plants that Export by Industry, Industry Share of Total Output and Exports 1987 and Industry Share of All Shipments Industry Share of All Exports % Plants Exporters Industry Share of All Shipments Industry Share of All Exports All Food Tobacco Textiles Apparel Wood Furniture Paper Printing Chemicals Petroleum Rubber Leather Stone, Clay Pri. Metal Fab. Metal Machinery Electr. Eq Transport Instrument s Misc. Mfg Plants with fewer than 20 employees are excluded from this analysis. 19

21 Table 3: Shipments and Direct Exports By State (1987,1992) (Plants with >20 employees) Shipments Direct Exports Growth Growth State $mil. Rank $mil. Rank Change Rank $mil. Rank $mil. Rank Change Rank Maine 9, , % % 31 New Hampshire 11, , % % 40 Vermont 4, , % % 42 Massachusetts 57, , % 47 3, , % 35 Rhode Island 11, , % % 45 Connecticut 34, , % 43 3, , % 39 New York 121, , % 46 7, , % 34 New Jersey 75, , % 45 2, , % 27 Pennsylvania 109, , % 37 3, , % 23 Ohio 149, , % 38 9, , % 38 Indiana 80, , % 26 3, , % 25 Illinois 122, , % 35 5, , % 30 Michigan 139, , % 41 9, , % 44 Wisconsin 65, , % 23 2, , % 12 Minnesota 44, , % 36 2, , % 46 Iowa 32, , % 12 1, , % 28 Missouri 55, , % 28 3, , % 48 North Dakota 2, , % % 13 South Dakota 3, , % % 47 Nebraska 14, , % , % 2 Kansas 28, , % 34 1, , % 18 Delaware 10, , % % 6 Maryland 25, , % 40 1, , % 37 Virginia 49, , % 22 2, , % 20 West Virginia 10, , % % 49 North Carolina 91, , % 16 3, , % 8 South Carolina 38, , % 27 1, , % 16 Georgia 71, , % 32 2, , % 10 Florida 50, , % 42 3, , % 32 Kentucky 39, , % 9 1, , % 24 Tennessee 53, , % 13 1, , % 17 Alabama 38, , % 18 1, , % 7 Mississippi 23, , % 14 1, , % 26 Arkansas 23, , % , % 3 Louisiana 46, , % 21 2, , % 33 Oklahoma 22, , % , % 19 Texas 149, , % 17 8, , % 36 Montana 2, , % % 41 Idaho 6, , % , % 1 Wyoming 1, , % % 43 Colorado 21, , % , % 15 New Mexico 3, , % % 9 Arizona 18, , % 29 1, , % 22 Utah 9, , % % 5 Nevada 2, , % % 21 Washington 42, , % 3 8, , % 4 Oregon 22, , % 24 1, , % 14 California 227, , % 33 14, , % 29 Alaska 2, , % , % 11 20

22 Figure 2 US Exports log, 6.5 bill 6 ion s 5.5 of $ 4 y = x Total Exports Total Exports Linear Trend ( ) Source: Economic Report of The President,

23 Figure 3 Exports/GDP Exports/GDP Source: Economic Report of The President,

24 Table 4 : Exports by Plant Type Plant type Exports Exports Change in Exports ($millions) % of total ($millions) % of total ($millions) % of total New $0 0% $23,392 11% $23,392 29% Failed $13,241 11% $0 0% ($13,241) -16% Continuing $111,941 89% $182,693 89% $70,751 87% Stoppers $9,723 8% $0 0% ($9,723) -12% Starters $0 0% $30,801 15% $30,801 38% Both $102,218 82% $151,891 74% $49,673 61% All $125,183 $206,085 $80,901 23

25 Figure 4 Distribution of All Plants by Export Status 80.00% % of Plants 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% Non- Exporters Exporters

26 Figure 5 Exports/Shipments 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Distribution of Exporters by % Shipments Exported 1987, % of Plants

27 Table 5 : Decomposition of Export Growth ( ) Exporter Type Growth Effect Intensity Effect Total Change in Shipments * Average Export Intensity ($millions) Change in Export Intensity * Average Shipments ($millions) ($millions) Stoppers 139 0% -9,861-14% -9,722-14% Starters 4,149 6% 26,652 38% 30,801 44% Both 21,547 30% 28,125 40% 49,673 70% All Continuing 25,836 37% 44,916 63% 70, % 26

28 Figure 6 Supply Shift (Productivity Increase) P D S 1 S 2 Q Demand Shift (Exchange Rate, Foreign Income) P D 1 D 2 S 1 Q 27

29 Table 6 : Changes in Exports, Exports/Shipments (All Plants) Exchange Rate Foreign Income Labor productivity Dependent Variable Change in Exports Change in Export Intensity (DHS measure) (Exports/Shipments) Estimate t-statistic Estimate t-statistic N R

30 Table 7 : Changes in Exports, Exports/Shipments Continuing Exporters Exchange Rate Foreign Income Labor productivity Dependent Variable Change in Exports Change in Export Intensity ( lnexports) (DHS measure) (Exports/Shipments) Estimate t-statistic Estimate t-statistic Estimate t-statistic N R

31 Table 8 : Changes in Exports - Decomposition All Plants, Exchange Rate Foreign Income Labor productivity Dependent Variable Growth Effect Intensity Effect Estimate t-statistic Estimate t-statistic N R

32 Table 9 : Contributions of Foreign Income, Exchange Rates and Productivity to Export Growth Size Groups Actual Quintile 1 Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Quintile 5 ΣQuintiles in Total Exports Growth Effect 0.7% 1.2% 2.9% 10.1% 85.1% 25,836 70, % Intensity Effect 0.6% 1.2% 3.5% 10.8% 83.9% 44, % Estimated Growth Effect Exchange Rate -0.9% -1.4% -2.0% -0.6% 104.8% (8,492) 60, % Foreign Income 0.3% 0.5% 1.4% 6.4% 91.4% 27, % Productivity -0.2% 0.1% 1.1% 9.1% 89.8% 5, % Intensity Effect Exchange Rate 0.0% 1.7% 4.3% 12.8% 81.2% 11, % Foreign Income 1.1% 1.2% 3.0% 9.1% 85.6% 24, % Productivity 0.3% 0.3% 2.5% 28.2% 68.7% % 31

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