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1 = = = 11 = 1!"#$% PROGRESSUS INQUISITIONES DE MUTATIONE CLIMATIS Vol. 11 No. 1 January 215 doi:.3969/j.issn ,,.!"#$%&'()*+,=[j].!"#$%, 215, 11 (1): 54-6!"#$%&'()*+, N == N == NIO N=!"#$%#&'=NMMUTO O=!"#$%&'()*+,-./=NMMMPU =!" GTAP8=EGlobal Trade Analysis Project!!"#$% 24 27!!"#$%&'() *+,-)./123!"!"#$%&'()*+,!"#!"#$% &'()*+,-24 27!"#$%&'()*+(,-./1!234!"#$%&'()*$+,-./12!"#$%&'()*+,-.4.15t!"#$%&!"#63%!"#$%&'()*+,-./1234!"#$%&'()*+,-!./!"#$%&'()*+,- I!"#$%&'()*!!"!"!"#$%!"!" = ====!"CO 2!"#$!"#!"#2212!"#$#! CO t 345 t!"#$%&' 47% 62% x1z!"#$%&'()*+,-./ !"#$%&' 6.46!"# 18.32!"!"#$% 28% 43% x2z!"#$!%!"#$%&'()*+,2211!"#$%&'()*&'+,- 5% 36%!"#$%&'()*12% 24%!"#$!%&'()*+ 36% 38% x3z!"#$%&'!"#$!%&'()!"#$%&'()*!"#$%!"#!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'()*+,-./12!"#$%!&'#$()*+,-./!"#$%&'()*+,-./!"#$%&'()!"!"#$%&'()*+,-./$12 ====!"#$%&'()*+,(-./!"#$%!"#$%&'()*+! ! !!"#$%&'!"#$%&'()*+!"#$ %&'()*2132!!!"#!"#$ wangkert@gmail.com!"#$%&'( 2%!"#$#%&' unspecified destinations

2 1!!"#$%&'()*+, 55!"#$%&'()*+ x4-7z!!"#$!"#$%ahmad x8z 1995!" 8%! 24!"!"OECD!"!"#$Peters x9z!"#$ B!"#B!"#$%&'()* B!"#$%&'()*+Davis xz 24!"#$%&'!"#!!"#$%&'( 23%Chen x11z!"#$%&"#'()*+,-./!"#$!"#$%&'()*" 3!"#$%&'()*+,-. x12z!"#$%&'(!"#$!"#$ 24 3!"#$%!"#$Yang x13z!"#$%&'( !"#!"#$%&'()*!"#$%!"#$!"#$%&'()!!"#$%&' (!"!"#$%&'()*+,-./ ====!" 24 27!"#$%!"#$%&!"#$%&'()!"#$%&'()*+!!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"!"#$%&'()*+,-! N==!" ====!"#$%&'(!"#$%!"#$%&212!"#$%&!"#$%&'() GTAP8!"# !"#$ 57! x 14z!"#$%&'() 2427!"#$!GTAP8!!"#$%&'()*+$,-&!"!"#$%&' (!"OECD!"#!"!"#$%&'!()*!!"#!"#!!"#!"#!"!"#!"#$%&'() CO 2!"!"#IMF GDP!" 27!" 24!" ====GTAP!"#$%&'()*+,!"#$%&'(!"#$% r!"#$% x r = A rr x r + y rr + e r =======================(1) x r r!"#a rr!"#$%&"'!"#$%y rr!!"#!"#$%&e r!"#!"#$!"#$%#&'()*#$x rs x rs = (I J A rr ) J1 e rs (2) e rs rs! r!"#$%&' CO 2! GTAP!"#$%&!"#$!"!"#$%E r!"#$%&' r!"#$! CO 2 C r C r = Σ s c rs = Σ s E r (I J A rr ) J1 e rs (3) c rs r s!"# CO 2!"#$%&'()*+,-.#/1!"#$%&'()*+,!"#$!" CO 2!!"#!"!"#!" D r = E r (I J A rr ) J1 (4)!"#$%&'()%&*! r!"#$%&'r!"#$%&!"#$%&'(r!"#$%&'( GTAP!!"#$%&'()*+,-./1!"#$%!"#$%&'()*#+,-./12

3 = = =!"#$% 56 =215 O==!" OKN==!"#$%&'()*+,- ====2427!"#$%&'()!!"#$%&' 124!"#$ 62% 27 6%!"#$%&'()*+!"!"#$%&'()*+2427!"#$%&'()* 2!"# 32% 36%!"#$%&'!" ====!"#$%&'()!"#$%!"#$%&'!"#$%&'(!"#$%&!'()*+%,- 27!"#$%&'()* t!"#$% 64%24 27!"#$%&'()*+,#$%&'- 75%!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"#$%&!"#$%&' ( 27!"#$%&'(!"#)66%24 27!"#$%&'()*+,-./!"#$%&'!"()*+,-. 4!" ====!"#$!"%&'$()*+,-!"#$%& '#$(!"!"#$%&'()* !"#$!"%!"&'!"#$%&'()* ====27!"#$%!"&!"'(!"#$%&' 6% 2427!"#!"# $%&'()45% 56%!"#$%&'()*+,18% 33%!"#$%&'()*+,!-$%'!!"#$!%&'()*+,!"#$%&'()* % 2738%!"#$%!"&!"#$%&'( )*+,29% 32% ====27!"#$%&'()16.31t!"#$%&' CO 2 12%!!"#$%&'( %!!"#$%& '()*+,-./!!"#$%&'(!")*+,!"#$%& OKO==!"#$%&'()*+,-. ====!"#$%&'()*+) 1!"#$%&'()*+,!"#$%&'()* 227!"#$%&' t 3.95 t!"#$%&'(!"#) 28%! 1==24 27!"#$%&'()*%&+,- Table 1 CO 2 emissions embodied in exports and trade volumes between the South and North groups in 24 and 27 /Mt CO 2 / % % % % (3%) (7%) % (32%) (68%) % % % % % (34%) (66%) % (36%) (64%) %!"#$%&'()*+,-./1234*+567/1238! CO 2!"# IEAICO 2 emissions from fuel combustion, 28, 211

4 OECD OECD 1!!"#$%&'()*+, 57!"#$%&' /% !" 27!" 24!" 27!" !"#$%&'()'*+,!"# Fig. 1 Shares of each country and region in global imports and exports in 24 and 27!"# / t CO !"!"#$!"!"#$ 2 27!"#$%&'()*+,!"!" Fig. 2 Carbon emissions embodied in imports, exports and corresponding shares in global embodied carbon emissions for each country and region in 27!"#$%& 7%!"#$%!&!"#$%&'()*+,2427!"#$%&'()* 54% 66%!"#$%&'()32%!"# 3.91 t!"#$%& 4858 t!"#$%&'()*+,-./59% 7% ====!"#$%&'()*+,!" 98% 89%27!"#$%&'()!"#$%&'( 3% 2%!"#!" #$%&'()*+, ====!"#$!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&'()*+,-./!" !"#$%&'( /%!27!"#$%&'() 18% 25% ====!"#$%&'#$%()*+,-.!"#$%&!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'(!"#$%&!!"#$%&'()*!+24 27!"5!"#$%&'()* 72%!"#!" OECD!"#$%24%!! 5!"#$%&'()*+,- 46%!" OECD!"#$%&!"# 4% OKP==!"#$%&'()*+,-./ ====3!"#$%&'()*+!"#$%!"#$%!"#!"#$%&'()*+,!"#$%&'()*+,-.27!"#$%&'()*!"#$+ 5% ====!"#$%!"#$%&'()!"#$%&'()*+,!"#$!"#$%!!"#$!"#!"#!"!"#$%&'()!"#$!!"#$%&'!"#$%!"#$%&'()*27!"#$! 4% ====!"#$%&'()* +,-./!"#$%&24 27!"#$%&'()$*+%&',-!"#$!"#$%&'(!"#$%&!"#$%&'()*!"!"#$%&'()*+!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'()*+,-*./!!"#$%&'(!"#$%!"#$%&!!"#$%

5 = = =!"#$% 58 =215 /% !"!"#$!!"#$!"#$!!"#$!!!!!"#$!"!! !"#$%&'()*+,-. Fig. 3 Industrial distribution of embodied emissions in exports of major countries and regions in 24 and 27!"#$%&'()!"#$%&'!"#!"#$%&'()*+,-!"#$%&'()*+,-./1!!"#!"#$%&'!"!"#$%! "#$%!"#$%&'()!"#$%&'!27!"#$%&'()*#+!26%!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&'()*+,-.*/,-!"#$%&'()*+#,-. OKQ==!"#$%&'()*+,- ====27!!"#$%!"#$%& '()* t CO 2 / 2!"!!13.23 t CO 2 /!!"#$%!"#$%&'()3!"!"#$%&'(!" 6 ==== 2427!"#!"!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&!"#$%&'()!"*+,-.!"#!"#$%&'()*"+,!"#$%&'( ==27!"#$%!"&'()*+,-.!"#$%& t CO 2 / F Table 2 Comparisons of average complete carbon emission factors for major embodied emissions exporting industries between developed and developing countries in 27 (unit: t CO 2 / US$)!"!!"! 5.19! ! !"#$%&'()*+,-(.!"#$%!"#!"#!"!"#$%!"#$%!"&'()*+,!"!"#! " CO 2!" 2.19 t!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'!"#$%&'()!"#$!"#$%&'()*+! CO t 24 27!"#$! 63%!"#$%&'()*+,!!"#$%&' CO 2!"# 1.87 t 1.2 t!"#$%&'(!"

6 1!!"#$%&'()*+, 59 3==24 27!"#$%&'()*+ Mt CO 2 F Table 3 Global emissions increase resulted from production transfer from 24 to 27 (unit: Mt CO 2 )!! OECD! ! ! P==! ====!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"#$% &'()*+,-$%()!" ====!"#$!"#$%&'()%!"#$%&'()*+,-./!"#$%&!"#'()*+,!"#$%!"#$%&'()*+!"#!"#$%&'()*+ ==== 2427!"#$%&'(!"#!"#$%&!"#$!"#$%&'!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"!"#!"#$%&'()!!"#$!"#$%&' (!"#$%&'()*+!" x3z J J!"#$ J!"#$%&'()*+,-./!"#$%& ====!!"#$%!"#$%!"#$!"#$%!"#$!"#$%&'(#)*+#,!!"#$%&!'("#$)*+,-./!!"#!"#!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'(!!"#$%&' 2427!"#!"#$%&'()*+,-!"#$%&'()*+,-$./(1!"#!$%& '()*+,-./!"#$!"#$%&'()*+,!"#$%& ' ====!"#$%!"!&'()*+!"#$%&24 27!!"#$%&'()*+ CO 2! 4.15 t!"#$%&'( 63% ====!"#$%&'()*+,-!"#$%&'!"#$%&!"#$#%&'()*!"#$!"#$%&'()*+,-./12!"#$!%&'()*+,! "#$%&'()*#$%&+,-! ====!"#$!"#$%&!"#$%!"!"#$%&!"#$%&'()*+,!!"#!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"#$%&'()*!"#!"#$%&'(!)#*+,-./!"#$%&'(!"#$!!"#$%&'()*+,-./!"#$%&'(

7 = = =!"#$% 6 =215! [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] EDGAR. CO 2 time series 199J212 per region/country [DB/OL]. 213 [ ]. 2 ts WTO. International trade and market access data [DB/OL]. 213 [ ]. WTO. World trade report 213 [R/OL]. 213 [ ]. Peters G P, Hertwich E G. CO 2 embodied in international trade with implications for global climate policy [J]. Environmental Science & Technology, 28, 42 (5): Peters G P. From production-based to consumption-based national emission inventories [J]. Ecological Economics, 28, 65 (1): 13-23,,. MRIO!"#$%&'()*+!"=[J].!"#, 213 (6): 54-58, 86, Weber C L, Matthews H S. Embodied environmental emissions in US international trade, 1997J24 [J]. Environmental Science & Technology, 27, 41 (14): Ahmad N, Wyckoff A. Carbon dioxide emissions embodied in international trade of goods [R/OL]. Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), 23 [ ]. docserver/download/5lgsjhvj7ld6.pdf?expires= &id=id&accname =guest&checksum=75f8976e8d8cbcbecb98baba73e83d [9] Peters G P, Minx J C, Weber C L, et al. Growth in emission transfers via international trade from 199 to 28 [J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 211, 8 (21): [] Davis S J, Caldeira K. Consumption-based accounting of CO 2 emissions [J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2, 7 (12): [11] Chen Z M, Chen G Q, Chen B. Embodied carbon dioxide emissions of the world economy: a systems input-output simulation for 24 [J]. Procedia Environmental Sciences, 2, 2: [12],,.!"#$%&'()*+,-./=[J].!, 213 (1): [13] Yang Z, Dong W, Wei T, et al. Constructing long-term (1948J211) consumption-based emissions inventories [J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 214, available online, doi:.16/j.jclepro [14] Purdue University. Global Trade Analysis Project [DB/OL]. 214 [ ]. Analysis of Changes in Carbon Emissions Embodied in Global Trade and Corresponding Influences Liu Junling 1, Wang Ke 1, Zou Ji 1, 2 1 School of Environment and Natural Resources, Renmin University of China, Beijing 872, China; 2 National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation, Beijing 38, China Abstract: Based on input-output model and latest data from GTAP8 database (Global Trade Analysis Project), the changes of embodied carbon emissions in North group and South group countries were analyzed in 27 relative to 24 resulted from international trade changes and corresponding influence on global carbon emissions. The results show that with the expending scale of imports and exports from developing countries, the shares of global embodied emissions in imports and exports of developing countries were both increasing. From 24 to 27, the exporting structures were enhancing: the developed focused on exports of high-end equipment manufacturing and service, and the developing focused on resource products and energy intensive goods as well as low-to-medium level manufacturing. This resulted in the increase of global CO 2 emissions of 415 Mt, which accounted for 63% of embodied emissions growth during this period. The share of embodied carbon emissions from developing countries exports is expected to further increase in the future. The changes in embodied carbon emissions flows within North-South group caused by international trade changes will have an increasingly important impact on global climate change actions. Key words: international trade; North group and South group; carbon emissions embodied in trade; input-output; production transfer; industrial chain

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