Food production and climate change Charalampos Theopemptou Commissioner for the Environment http://perivallon.eu Ακάμας
Χαράλαμπος Θεοπέμπτου - Επίτροπος Περιβάλλοντος 2
The Med area Χαράλαμπος Θεοπέμπτου - Επίτροπος Περιβάλλοντος 3
Αλλαγές Θερμοκρασίας Hotter Equator Χαράλαμπος Θεοπέμπτου - Επίτροπος Περιβάλλοντος 4
Βροχόπτωση More Rain Less Rain Χαράλαμπος Θεοπέμπτου - Επίτροπος Περιβάλλοντος 5
Cyprus Met Office: Average rainfall between 1991/92-2007/08 (17 met. years) is 457 mm which is 9% lower than that of the period 1961 1990 (503 mm) Between 1991-2007 mean temperature is 17.7 ο C which is about 0.5 ο C higher from that of the period 1961 1990 which was17.2 ο C. If we continue on this rate, by the year 2030 rainfall will reduce by 10-15% and temperature will increase by 1,0-1, 5 ο C compared to that of the 1961-1990 period. Χαράλαμπος Θεοπέμπτου - Επίτροπος Περιβάλλοντος 6
Precipitation continuously falling Χαράλαμπος Θεοπέμπτου - Επίτροπος Περιβάλλοντος Source: Cyprus Meteorological Service 7 7
Max summer temperatures Mean change 3.4 0 C T sm 2 o C for 2021-2050 T sm 5 o C for 2071-2100 Average change in summer maximum temperatures ( T sm ) relative to reference value of 34 o C; source: Giannacopoulos et al., 2008 8 8
Days with max. temperature T max > 35 o C Most changes will in the center and east side of the island d Tm 25 days for 2021-2050 d Tm 60 days for 2071-2100 Increase of days with T max > 35 o C (Δd Tm ) relative to reference(d Tm =~ 60 days); source: Giannacopoulos et al., 2008 9 9
Increase of tropical nights T min > 20 o C d tn 45 days for 2021-2050 d tn 90 days for 2071-2100 Increase of days with tropical nights Χαράλαμπος T min > 20 o C Θεοπέμπτου (Δd tn ) relative - to reference(d ttn =~ 75 days); source: 10 Επίτροπος Giannacopoulos Περιβάλλοντος et al., 2008 10
Predicted rainfall change Biggest drop in the center and southern part of the island P t -6 to 18% for 2021-2050 P t -20 to 35% for 2071-2100 Average change in total precipitation ( P t ) relative to reference; source: Giannacopoulos et al., 2008 Χαράλαμπος Θεοπέμπτου - Επίτροπος Περιβάλλοντος 11 11
Annual Rainfall and no rain periods P w -25% for 2021-2050 P w -40% for 2071-2100 Average change in total winter precipitation ( P w ) relative to reference; source: Giannacopoulos et al., 2008 Average change in length of dry spells ( DS) in summer relative to reference; source: Giannacopoulos et al., 2008 2071-2100 : DS 12% ( 15 days) eastern DS 25% ( one month) western Part Χαράλαμπος Θεοπέμπτου - Επίτροπος Περιβάλλοντος 12 12
Χαράλαμπος Θεοπέμπτου - Επίτροπος Περιβάλλοντος 13
In Cyprus provide drinking water through desalination which needs a lot of energy to operate Χαράλαμπος Θεοπέμπτου - Επίτροπος Περιβάλλοντος 14
Temperature increase Longer summer longer periods without rain Greater danger of forest fires Increase of insects agriculture and health New diseases that thrive in the new whether New invasive species 15
Reduced rainfall Will loose trees and vegetation that don t like the new climate of higher temperatures and lower rainfall. Scarcity of drinking quality problem Serious problems for farmers Reduced Water table salinity 16
Soil degradation Soil in the MED Change in rain and wind patterns will increase erosion Increased possibilities of desertification Reduced rainfall will increase the risk from nitrates from farm waste as well as treated effluent from sewage systems. (& sea salt) Loss of water content capability and organic content.
Agriculture in the Med For the Mediterranean region an extended summer will also mean reduced cultivation period.-> more dangers of frost! Less rain & higher temperatures -> crops under stress Less rare extreme conditions New and more insects New plant diseases expected with dust from Africa (>5 times a year)
Dust Covered Mediterranean
Dust Covered Mediterranean
Dry weather and higher temperatures = higher risk of fires and crop destruction
The issues Less water demanding crops Are they marketable? [research needed] Rely more and more on * Water from dams and * Water from sewage systems if they are nearby and if they have water to give! Competition is great A lot of families can no longer earn their living on farming. Eg less rain, depleted aquifer
Where else can we get water from?
Rain water harvesting Can only give small amounts of water Used in large greenhouses The standards are DIN 1989 μέρος 1-4.
School in Dali
4 containers buried
Sustainable Urban Drainage systems - SUDs
SUDS They increase the moisture of the ground and support aquifers Features of SUDS Retention ponds Drain systems with porous surfaces Filtering ponds soakaways Lakes and Large ponds
Example of porous surface and a SUD design of a street drain
Retention ponds Τελος
We have to act. Ακρωτήρι Τέλος Χαράλαμπος Θεοπέμπτου - Επίτροπος Περιβάλλοντος 31
Thank you.. Charalampos Theopemptou Commissioner for the Environment Pyrgos