Bus Arrival Time Prediction Using Support Vector Machines

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1 : (2007) , 1, 2 (11, ;21, ) : 2 (SVM),, SVM. 5., 4,. : ; ;SVM : U121 : A Bus Arrival Time Prediction Using Support Vector Machines YU Bin 1, YANG Zhong2zhen 1, LIN Jian2yi 2 (11Transportation College, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian , China ;21Civil Engineering Dept, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian , China) Abstract: Effective prediction of bus arrival time is central to many advanced traveler information system. This paper presents support vector machines ( SVM), a new neural network algorithm, to predict bus arrival time. The objective of this paper is to examine the feasibility and applicability of SVM in vehicle travel time forecasting area. Time2of2day, weather, segment, the travel time of current segment and the latest travel time of next segment are taken as five input features. Bus arrival time predicted by the SVM is assessed with the data of transit route number 4 in Dalian economic and technological development zone in China and some conclusions are drawn. Key words : prediction ;bus arrival time ;support vector machine 1 APTS ATIS,.,,, ( [1 ],, ), ;,, (, ),. (, ),,,, : Kalman. [2,3 ],, [4 ].. Kalman, [2,5 7 ]. Kalman ( ) ( Kalman ),,,, [8 ]. 2,, : : ( ) : ( ),,,,,E2mail com. cn ; ( ),,,,,,E2mail net.

;21Civil Engineering Dept, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China) Abstract: Effective prediction of bus arrival time is central to many advanced traveler information system.

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