Research on Economics and Management

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1 Research on Economics and Management Vol. 36 No. 5 May F A DOI: /j.cnki.issn % AJY

2 Research on Economics and Management No self - selection 490 Propensity Score Matching PSM 1 lny ij = β 0j + β 1j lnfs ij + β 2j lnsize ij + β 3j Stru ij + β 4j Infr ij + β 5j Type ij + μ ij 1 Y ij j = i j FS ij i Size ij Stru ij Infr ij Type ij Size ij i 1 OLS

3 Research on Economics and Management No Stru ij i Infr ij i Type ij i 1 1 μ ij β ij Y ij FS ij Size ij Stru ij Infr ij Tape ij % FS ij β 1j j = 1 j = 2 j = 3 β 1j cause - effect relationship Rosenbaum & Rubin selection bias 1 2 PSM p X = Pr D = 1 X = E D X 2 D D = 1 D = 0 X p X propensity score 1 Logistic

4 Research on Economics and Management No PS 2 Average effect of Treatment on the Treated ATT Becker & Ichino i p X i ATT ATT = E Y 1i - Y 0i D i = 1 = E{ E Y 1i - Y 0i D i = 1 p X i } = E{ E Y 1i D i = 1 p X i - E Y 0i D i = 0 p X i D i = 1} Y 1i Y 0i p X Lian et al Nearest Neighbor Matching i i 1 T i i T N C i j C i w ij = 1 /N C i T N T Becker & Ichino 2002 ATT 3 3 ATT = 1 /N T lny T i - 1 /N T w j lny C i 4 i T j C T C ~ % 456 / / / % Radius Matching Kernel Matching 55

5 Research on Economics and Management No % % % Stata F 2 2 Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅶ Ⅷ Ⅺ Ⅻ ** * *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ** ** *** *** *** ** *** *** * * *** *** ** ** *** *** Ⅳ % 1% % Ⅷ % 1% % Ⅶ R *** ** * 1% 5% 10% t 2 56

6 Research on Economics and Management No self - selection selection bias T 3 3 T *** *** ** *** *** ** *** *** ** * 1% 5% 10% Logit Logit Logit 4 Logit 57

7 Research on Economics and Management No Pseudo - R 2 AUC 21 V Pseudo - R 2 AUC V 4 Logit Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅴ *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** * *** *** ** ** * * *** *** *** *** *** Logit PS 1 1 PS Pseudo R AUC *** ** * 1% 5% 10% PS 5 1 PS 58

8 Research on Economics and Management No % 5 t t - test p > t t t - test p > t ATT ATT 6 1 ATT 5% ATT 6 ATT ATT s. e. t - value *** *** ** ATT t 3 *** ** * t 1% 5% 10% ATT ATT 59

9 Research on Economics and Management No T 50% M J WTO D J

10 Research on Economics and Management No J J DEA 87 J J D ROSENBAUM P R RUBIN D B. The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects J. Biometrika BRAND J E YU X. Who benefits most from college Evidence for negative selection in heterogeneous economic returns to higher education J. American Sociological Review RUBIN D B. Estimating causal effects from large data sets using propensity scores J. Annals of Internal Medicine MORGAN S L WINSHIP C. Counterfactuals and causal inference methods and principles for social research M. New York Cambridge University Press WINSHIP C SOBEL M S. Causal inference in sociological studies A HARDY M A BRYMAN A. Handbook of Data Analysis C. CA Sage Publications SOBEL M E. Causal inference in the social sciences J. Journal of the American Statistical Association IRWIN E A KLENOW P J. High-tech R&D subsidies estimating the effects of sematech J. Journal of International Economics J BECKER S ICHINO A. Estimation of average treatment effects based on propensity scores J. The Stata Journal LIAN Y SU Z GU Y. Evaluating the effects of equity incentives using PSM evidence from China J. Frontiers of Business Research in China J HOSMER D LEMESHOW S. Applied logistic regression M. New York John Wiley & Sons Inc Effect of Public Financial Support for Agricultural Product Wholesale Market A Propensity Score Matching Analysis Based on the 490 Market Data in the Cooperative System ZENG Yinchu CHENG Xiaoping Renmin University of China Beijing Abstract Based on the investigation data of 490 markets in the cooperative system the effects on transaction scale employment and farmer development of public financial support for agricultural product wholesale market are analyzed by multiple regression models and the causal inference bias related to sample self selection is discussed by using propensity score matching method. The regression result show that the public financial support has significant effects on the transaction scale and the employment of the wholesale market but if the causal inference bias related to sample self selection is controlled these effects will not become significant which means the effects of public financial support will be over - evaluated by the ordinary regression model. Keywords agricultural product wholesale market public financial support policy effect propensity score matching 61

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