55 3 2000 5 A CTA GEO GRA PH ICA S IN ICA V o l. 55, N o. 3 M ay, 2000 : 037525444 (2000) 0320257209 1, 2, 1 (11, 100101; 21, 100875) :, 40, 4,, 39, : ; ; ; : P33112; P333; P34311 : A 20 70, 1972 1998 27 21 90,,,,, (1) : 1974 20, 1989 24, 1992 83, 1997, 13, 226, 704 km, 90% 1998, 1999 42 1 (2) :,,,,, V ladim irov [1 ],, 4, 4,, : 2000203231; : 2000204213 : (KZ9512A 12203), 973(G19990436) [Foundation Item: Key P ro ject of Ch inese A cadem y of Sciences, N o. KZ9512A 12203; 973 P ro ject of M inistry of Sciences, N o. G19990436 ] : (19342 ),,,, 973,, E2m ail: liucm @dls1iog1ac1cn
258 55 11974198919921997 F ig11d ates of drying2up courses in each month at L ijin Station in 1974, 1989, 1992, and 1997,, [2 ], g 2 F ig12facto rs influencing on drying2up courses of the low er H uanghe R iver 2,, 18 18 ()(3)
3 : 259 3 18 F ig13d istribution of 18 hydro logic stations along the m ain course of the H uanghe R iver 2,, 18 6, 6, () (1) 1 Tab11Correlation coeff ic ien ts of runoff, prec ip itation, and temperature of station s along the ma in course of the Huanghe R iver 1100 0198 1100 0189 0190 1100 0191 0194 0197 1100 0175 0181 0189 0193 1100 0169 0175 0182 0187 0198 1100 0169 0175 0182 0186 0198 1100 1100 0125 0132 0137 0150 0143 0143 0124-0103 - 0122 0119-0125 - 0112-0112 - 0101
260 55,,,, 3, 4 : (710 ) (11 6 ) 4,, 311, 3 : 19191980 [3 ] :,,,,,, 3 [4, 5 ], 3 :,, 11,, (4),,,,,,,,,, [ 6 ] 19501997 5, 1986, 2, 19221932 19691974 11 6 19861997,, 19861997 19691974 43%,,, 5060 15010 8 m 3, 70, 25010 8 m 3, 8090, 30010 8 m 3,
3 : 261 4(% ) F ig14d ecrease percentage of base flow of m iddle and low er H uanghe R iver 58010 8 m 3 5117%, g,, 312, [4, 7 ], 3, 3, 3 [3 ], (2) 2 ( : a) Tab12Per iodic ity of natural runoff ser ies of Huanghe R iver (years) 14 - - - 3 3 7 10 7 2 7 7 3 3 7 14 3 2 7 7 3 3 7 10 3 2 7 7 3 3 7 10 3 3 7 7 3 3 7 7 3 2 7 7 3 3 13 10 3 3 7 7 3 3 7 7 () 3 3 7 10 3 3 7 7 3 3 7 10 3 3 13 9 7, 7, 10,
262 55 313,, q (t) [8 ] : q (t) = q (t) - qλ Ρ (321) q λ Ρq (t), q (t), f i (i = 1, 2,,M ),M = N 2 Schm idt, f 3, f 4,, f M, Ff 2 Gram 2, f 2, f 3,, f M M - 1, f 2, f 3,, f M q (t), : q (t) = M i= 2 Υif i (t) + e (t) (322) q (t) ; f i (t) ; Υi e (t), : CS C 2k = Q k Q x + ΚN N k (323) Q k ; Q x ; k ; N ; N k ; Κt, t q^ ^ q (N + t) = Υ0 + ; f i ; Υ0 Υi k i= 1 Υif i (N + t) t = 1, 2 (324),,,, 3, 8%16%,,,, 5, 4 40, 19931999, 1997, 1210310 8 m 3, 1997-11105%- 10136% - 3146% - 14110% [9 ], (3) 4 (1), 4, 19521990,
3 : 263 g10 8 m 3 a - 1 5 F ig15comparison betw een calculated runoffs and real runoffs from each series at H uayuankou Station 3 Tab13Prediction of each runoff composite ser ies at Huayuankou Station by using the orthogonal ization & selection m odel g% g% g% g% g10 8 m 3 g10 8 m 3 g10 8 m 3 a - 1 1993 565151-5185 333155-4166 276138 9132 166132-1103 1994 604103 0156 393130 12142 163124-35143 186196 11125 1995 620189 3137 343116-1192 230126-8192 205108 22103 1996 615171 2151 419154 19192 263196 4141 177112 5139 1997 534130-11105 313160-10136 244107-3146 144136-14110 1998 653121 8175 387145 10174 305150 20184 189160 12182 1999 539133-10121 367120 4196 206197-18113 162196-3103 (2) 11,,,, (3), 3
264 55 ; 710 (4) 90% (References) [1 ]M cm ahon T A, A renas A D. M ethods of computation of low stream flow [M ]. UN ESCO, 1982. [ 2 ]L iu Changm ing, L iu Yongw ei. Influence of D rying up Courses of L ow er H uanghe R iver on Environm ent and Counterm easure[a ]. In: D evelopm ent Bulletin of CA S[C ]. Beijing: Science P ress, 1998. 4345. ( In Ch inese) [,. [A ]. : [C ]. :, 1998. 4345. ] [3 ] Chen X iande (ed. ). H ydro logy in the H uanghe R iver [M ]. Zhengzhou: Yellow R iver H ydraulic Engineering P ress, 1987. ( In Ch inese) [. [M ]. :, 1987. ] [ 4 ]Q in A iji, Chen Xueying, Zheng Yanxia. Statistical analysis on the tim e series of runoff at Yichang[J ]. H y d rology, 1993, 77 (5): 23 27. ( In Ch inese) [,,. [J ]., 1993, 77 (5): 2327. ] [5 ]Ko ttegoda N T. Stochastic W ater R esource T echno logy [M ]. J in Guangyan ( translated). Beijing: A gricultural P ress, 1987. ( In Ch inese) [Ko ttegoda N T. [M ].. :, 1987. ] [ 6 ]Chen X iande, L i Xuem ei, L u guangqi. D rying up Courses of L ow er H uanghe R iver & V ariable Characteristic of W ater R esources, Research and P ractice on Sustainable M anagem ent of W ater Resources [M ]. W uhan: W uhan M app ing U niversity of Science and T echno logy P ress, 1999. 2328. ( In Ch inese) [,,. [M ]. :, 1999. 2328. ] [7 ]T ian Zheng. T heo ry and M ethod to D eal w ith D ynam ic D ata- T im e Series A nalysis[m ]. X i an: N o rth W est Engineering U niversity P ress, 1995. ( In Ch inese) [. - [M ]. :, 1995. ] [8 ]W ei Fengying, Cao Hongxing. M athem aticalm odels of L ong2term P rediction and Its A pp lication [M ]. Beijing: M eteo ro logy P ress, 1990. ( In Ch inese) [,. [M ]. :, 1990. ] [ 9 ] Zhu P ingsheng, H u Guifang, Zhang Sup ing. A nalysis and tendency p rediction of w ater resource in Shandong P rovince [ J ]. M eteorology, 1998, 24 (3): 39. 9. ] ( In Ch inese) [,,. [J ]., 1998, 24 (3): 3 Analysis on Runoff Ser ies w ith Spec ial Reference to D ry ing up Courses of L ower Huanghe R iver L IU Chang2m ing 1, 2, CH EN G L i 1 (11Institu te of Geog rap hy, CA S, B eij ing 100101; 21Colleg e of R esou rces and E nv ironm ental S ciences, B eij ing N orm al U niversity, B eij ing 100875) Abstract: V iew ing the mo re and mo re seriou s phenom ena of cou rse drying2up of low er H uanghe R iver, tak ing 1987 fo r exam p le, the to ta l du ra t ion of d rying2up reached 226 dayṡ Based on the system atic analysis of the influencing facto rs, tw o aspects from bo th w ater dem and and w ater supp ly shou ld be con sidered. A nd in the aspect of w ater supp ly there ex ist fou r layers, tha t is, p recip ita t ion, t ran sp ira t ion, runoff, and g roundw a ter, that affect the drying2up of low er H uanghe R iver. Con sidering the drying up takes p lace at the dry season every year, base flow m u st p lay an impo rtan t ro le. Fu rthermo re, the mon th ly natu ral runoff from 18 hydro logical station s along the m ain
3 : 265 cou rse of the H uanghe R iver betw een the 1950s and the 1990s w ere divided in to fou r series w h ich are analyzed separately w ith tim e series analysis. T heses fou r series are yearly runoff series, w et season runoff series (from Ju ly to O ct), dry season runoff series (from Sep to June nex t year), and the low est mon th ly runoff series as base flow. the dynam ic law comp rehen sively and system atically. In th is w ay, abou t the runoff in the H uanghe R iver ba sin w a s b rough t to ligh t Som e very m ean ingfu l conclu sion s have been d raw n. F irst, the runoff in low er reaches of the H uanghe R iver com es m ain ly from the up stream runoff rather than from local p recip itation and tran sp iration. Second, the drying up is mo stly cau sed by hum an exp lo itation. V iew ing from these po in ts, a un ifo rm basin exp lo itation and m anagem en t shou ld be put in to p ractice. T he year of 1999 is the best examp le. In that year becau se a un ifo rm basin m anagem en t concern ing w ater resou rce u tilization started to carry ou t, the cou rse drying up decreased to 42 dayṡ T h ird, the base flow of the H uanghe R iver from the very start of the m iddle reaches has been keep ing on dropp ing in the last 4 decades, w h ich w ou ld lead to a mo re deep though t abou t reason s and strategic ideas fo r the low er H uanghe R iver drained dry and m anagerial po licy. Becau se the bed at the low er reaches of the H uanghe R iver has been raised h igher than the su rrounding ground, it is impo ssib le fo r groundw ater at the low er reaches to flow in to the cou rseṡ T he decreasing base flow in the m iddle reaches in the past 40 years cau sed the decrease of base flow, w h ich m igh t partly lead to the drying up. L ast, base flow is no t directly related w ith yearly runoff of the H uanghe R iver, since they have d ifferen t p eriod s. F ina lly, o rthogona liza t ion & selection model cou ld be app lied satisfacto rily in to the fo recasting of runoff in the H uanghe R iver. H ere, T he fin ial p redicting function is ju st as fo llow ing. q^ ^ q (N + t) = Υ0+ k i= 1 Υif i (N + t) t= 1, 2, is the p redicting runoff; f is m ean generation function; and Υ0 and Υi are coefficien tṡ W ith the model, the sim ilitude p recision cou ld be abou t 90%. Fo r examp le, the calcu lated runoff at the mon th ly low est in 1987 is on ly 12103 hundred m illion m 3 per year, w h ich is so low that its anom aly percen tage is 21411%. real drough t background, w h ich m ade the cou rse drying up w o rst in 1987. T he resu lt acco rds w ith the In one w o rd, bo th hum an and natu ral facto rs exert impacts on the cou rses drying up of the low er H uanghe R iver to differen t degreed and from differen t w ays. Key words: t im e series ana lysis; na tu ra l runoff; o rthogona liza t ion & select ion m odel; dried2up of H uanghe R iver