THE IMPORTANCE OF ENERGY COLLABORATION BETWEEN ISRAEL-CYPRUS AND GREECE IN MEETING THE EUROPEAN ENERGY DEMANDS/DEFICIT BEYOND 2015
Global Oil Supplies as reported by EIA s International Petroleum Monthly, by Likvern, R., November 2010 Oil Drum, Europe PRODUCTION PRICE
Εικόνα 3. Προβλεθθείζα κορύθωζη ηης πεηρελαιοπαραγωγής καηά C.J.Campbell /-Cashed-Similar ζηα 30 διζεκ. Figure βαρέλια41. εηηζίως Peak ηο 2007 oil Production, και αναμενόμενη C.J. πηώζη ηης παραγωγής Campbell, 2005. www.hubbertpeak.com/campbell
BRENT OIL PRICE Trends in World Oil Supply/ Consumption and Net Exports/Imports, Likvern, R., September 2010 Oil Drum Europe
WHAT THE GRAPHS ARE SAYING IS THE FOLLOWING: EVERY DAY WE ARE PRODUCING 86 MILLION BARRELS OF OIL HOWEVER, WE ARE EXPORTING ONLY 42 MILLION BARRELS OF OIL SO 44 MILLION BARRELS OF OIL ARE KEPT BY THE PRODUCING COUNTRIES. FOUR COUNTRIES, NAMELY USA, JAPAN, CHINA AND SOUTH KOREA ABSORB 25 MILLION BARRELS PER DAY TO MEET THEIR INTERNAL DEMANDS, LEAVING THE DIFFERENCE OF 19 MILLION BARRELS OF OIL TO THE REMAINING COUNTRIES, INCLUDING EUROPE. EUROPE CONSUMES EVERY DAY 14 MILLION BARRELS OF OIL OUT OF WHICH 11 MILLION BARRELS ARE IMPORTED
PRODUCTION in 2031 45 million bar./day να 4. Προβλεπόμενες πεηρελαιοπαραγωγές για ηα έηη 2020 και 2031 καηά ηην World s Liquid Fuels Supply by EIA, 2009 Energy Information Administration (EIA), US, Department of Energy, 2009.
Drop of oil exports from exporting nations
BY 2020 WORLDWIDE OIL PRODUCTION WILL DROP TO 65 MILLION BARRELS PER DAY. THIS IMPLIES A DIAILY REDUCTION OF 21 MILLION BARRELS. AS A RESULT EUROPE WILL FACE AN UNPRECEDENTED ENERGY CRISIS BECAUSE IT WILL NEED THE EQUIVALENT ENERGY OF AT LEAST 4 BILLION BARRELS OF OIL. THIS EQUIVALENT ENERGY, CAN BE OBTAINED BY IMPORTING NATURAL GAS. THE EQUIVALENT AMOUNT IS 620 BILLION M3 PER YEAR
Figure 43. Natural Gas Production, Consumption and Net Imports of the European Union, Likvern, R., August 2010. www.energybulletin.net/node/53656- Cashed and in August 3, 2010 the Oil Drum
Actual Natural Gas Consumption between 2001 and 2009 of the European Union. Forecast Supplies and Consumptiom towards 2020, Likvern, R. August 2010. www.energybulletin.net/node/53656- Cashed and in August 3, 2010 the Oil Drum
BESIDES THE REQUIRED EQUIVALENT AMOUNT OF 620 BILLION M3 OF NATURAL GAS TO COUNTERBALANCE THE OIL DEFICIT, AN ADDITIONAL AMOUNT OF ROUGHLY 245 BILLION M3 OF NATURAL GAS WILL BE REQUIRED DUE TO THE DECLINE OF NATURAL GAS RESERVES FROM THE NORTH SEA,THE DECLINE OF NATURAL GAS IMPORTS AND THE DECLINE OF LNG IMPORTS. HENCE THE TOTAL NATURAL GAS IMPORTS IN 2020 WILL BE 440 (195 + 245 BILLION M3) OF NATURAL GAS BRINGING THE GRAND TOTAL TO 1060 (620+440) BILLION M3 OF NATURAL GAS
CAN RUSSIA FILL THE EUROPEAN ENERGY DEFICIT? THE ANSWER IS NO EVEN IF SHE DESIRES TO DO SO AND EVEN IF EUROPE ACCEPTS SUCH A GIFT. WHY? BECAUSE A. TODAY RUSSIA PRODUCES 600 BILLION M3 OF NATURAL GAS OUT OF WHICH 2/3 ARE CONSUMED INTERNALLY WHILE THE REMAINING IS EXPORTED TO EUROPE, 150 BILLION M3, AND 50 BILLION M3. TO OTHER COUNTRIES, HENCE TO SUPPLY ANOTHER 825 MILLION M3 OF NATURAL GAS/YEAR WITH TODAY S INFRASTRUCTURE IS AN IMPOSSIBLE MISSION
RUSSIA S NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION, EXPORTS (RED BARS) AND INTERNAL CONSUMPTION (BLUE BARS) IN M3/YEAR
GAZPROM S FORECAST NATURAL GAS DECLINE BY 2020
B. RUSSIA S NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION OF 600 BILLION M3 PER YEAR WILL DROP BY 2020 TO 400 BILLION M3, COVERING EXACTLY ITS INTERNAL NEEDS. SO, EUROPE BY 2020 MUST FIND NOT 825 BILLION M3 OF NATURAL GAS BUT 975 BILLION M3 SINCE THE TODAY S SUPPLY OF 150 BILLION M3 FROM RUSSIA WILL CEASE. CAN NORTH AFRICA INCREASE ITS SUPPLY BY 2020? THE ANSWER IS NO. SO WHERE EUROPE HAS TO TURN TO MEET ITS ENERGY DEMANDS?
From Both Eastern Mediterranean and Russia Eastern Mediterranean has a potential of over 20 Trillion M3 of natural gas out of which 5 Trillion M3 will stay with the producing countries. The remaining 15 Trillion M3 can be exported at a rate of 500 Billion M3 of natural gas/year. Russia s proven natural gas reserves are 47 Trillion M3 out of which 2/3 will be kept to satisfy its internal demand while the remaining 1/3 can be exported. From this amount, 25% is already allocated to Far East and 75% that is, 12 Trillion M3 of natural gas, to Europe. The rate of export can be 400 Billion M3 of natural gas/year Hence Russia should increase its natural gas production and develop new pipeline systems to meet some of Europe s demand
PROVEN, HIGHLY PROBABLE AND PROBABLE CONVENTIONAL NATURAL GAS RESERVES OF EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN IN TRILLION CUBIC METERS ( 1 Tcm = 6.44 X 10 =3 boe) EEZ OF COUNTRIES PROVEN HIGHLY PROBABLE 50% PROBABLE EGYPT 1.8 6.3 1 ISRAEL 0.9 0.9 1 CYPRUS 0.3 2.0 2 SYRIA+ LEBANON 1.2 1 GREECE/CRETE 3.5 3 5.5 4 TOTAL 2.7 0.3 13.9 19.4 1 USGS Technical Report, 2010.. 2 BEICIP/F3.RANLAB and PGS 3 Relating similar natural gas findings with number of MVF and similarities of the Herodotus basin portions belonging to Egypt and Cyprus to the one belonging to Greece. 4 If we equate the basin south of Crete to the Levanyine according to recent statements by PGS CONVERSION FACTORS = 1 boe = 5,487 cubic feet = 155.373 cubic meters of natural gas.
IT IS EXACTLY AT THIS POINT WHERE THE ENERGY AXES OF ISRAEL-CYPRUS AND GREECE INCLUDING EGYPT AND LIBYA WILL COME TO FILL EUROPE S ENERGY DEFICIT BY SUPPLYING 500 M3 OF NATURAL GAS PER YEAR FOR 30 YEARS. THE REMAINING AMOUNT OF 500 M3 WILL COME FROM RUSSIA AND ALGERIA FOR 30 YEARS.
GAVDOS 3-5 Τπιρ Μ 3 Φ/Α HERODOTUS PLAKIAS/TYMPAKI
GREECE (6 Tcm) TURKEY SYRIA (3,5 Tcm) CYPRUS LEBANON LIBYA EGYPT (1,8 Tcm+ 6 Tcm) ISRAEL (1.8 Tcm) Figure 1. Exclusive Economic Zones of Greece and Neighboring Counties Based upon the International Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), Montego Bay, Jamaica, 1982, Mazis, 2011
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Shale gas assessed with resource estimates (brown) and without resource estimates (yellow)
KRHTH Hydrates thicknesses in the Mediterranean Sea, Praeg et. al., 2007 Red line the Greek EEZ
Kefallonia Field Media field Cobblestone field Pano di Succharo Methane bubbles from the sea floor AEGEAN VOLCANIC ARC Promitheus field Olimpi Field AFRICAN PLATE Anaximander field United Nation Eratosthenes Rise field Field (3 Tcm) (2 Tcm + 6 Tcm) Εικόνα 2. Τοποθεσίερ λασποηυαιστείων και τος Αιγαιακού Ηυαιστειακού Τόξος. Τοποθεσίερ λασποηυαιστείων στον Κώνο τος Νείλος και στο Κςππιακό Τόξο. Τποποποιημένο από Dimitrov, 2002
THANK YOU CHANIA, CRETE
Εικόνα 11. Ποσότητερ υςσικού αεπίος σε Μ 3 /έτορ πος θα σπειαστεί η ΕΕ των 27 το 2020. Εκτιμάται ότι το 2020 θα σπειαστούν, πεπίπος, 442 Μ 3 /ετησίωρ
Εικόνα 8. Χώπερ από τιρ οποίερ εισάγει υςσικό αέπιο η ΕΕ με αγωγούρ. Δισεκατομμύπια κςβικά μέτπα ετησίωρ
Εικόνα 10. Χώπερ εισαγωγήρ ςγποποιημένος υςσικού αεπίος τηρ ΕΕ σε Μ 3 /έτορ
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