A global biofuels outlook: U.S. RIN markets and EU proposals. Gerard Wynn Energy and climate columnist Thomson Reuters

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2 1η Ενότητα: «Το Παρόν και το Μέλλον των Βιοκαυσίμων στην Ελλάδα και την Ευρώπη» A global biofuels outlook: U.S. RIN markets and EU proposals Gerard Wynn Energy and climate columnist Thomson Reuters

3 Global biofuel consumption

4 Two recent developments U.S. and the EU The U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard Problem 1: an ethanol blend wall? Problem 2: rising RIN prices Problem 3: missed targets for cellulosic ethanol Solution: biodiesel? The EU: European Commission proposal for 2020 targets Problem 1: halve crop-based biofuel target Problem 2: publish ILUC factors

5 U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard Obliges fuel producers to blend a certain percentage of biofuel into gasoline and diesel Producers must accumulate Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) to match the required blend percentage Each RIN defines a certain volume and type of biofuel Producers can either blend biofuel or buy RINs on secondary market Ethanol RIN demand and prices rise when there is a shortage of ethanol, or if the ethanol mandate exceeds safe levels for older cars (the 10% blend wall )

6 U.S. RFS: two main categories of biofuel Advanced biofuel Includes cellulosic ethanol; sugar cane ethanol; biodiesel Conventional renewable fuel Chiefly corn ethanol There are separate mandates for: Total renewable fuel Advanced biofuel Cellulosic biofuel Biodiesel

7 η Ενότητα: «Το Παρόν και το Μέλλον των Βιοκαυσίμων στην Ελλάδα και την Ευρώπη» U.S. renewable fuel mandates, Billion gallons cellulosic biofuel minimum biodiesel minimum Other advanced biofuels (excluding biodiesel and cellulosic) Implicit non-advanced biofuel 5 0 Source: U.S. Energy Independence and Security Act, 2007

8 η Ενότητα: «Το Παρόν και το Μέλλον των Βιοκαυσίμων στην Ελλάδα και την Ευρώπη» Blend wall: decline in U.S. ethanol production Million gallons Source: U.S. EIA

9 Blend wall: decline in ethanol RINs Million gallons RIN supply Mandate Source: EPA

10 Μαρ-10 Μαϊ-10 Ιουλ-10 Σεπ-10 Νοε-10 Ιαν-11 Μαρ-11 Μαϊ-11 Ιουλ-11 Σεπ-11 Νοε-11 Ιαν-12 Μαρ-12 Μαϊ-12 Ιουλ-12 Σεπ-12 Νοε-12 1η Ενότητα: «Το Παρόν και το Μέλλον των Βιοκαυσίμων στην Ελλάδα και την Ευρώπη» Blend wall: US gasoline and ethanol consumption Thousand barrels Adjusted ethanol consumption Total finished motor gasoline exported Total finished motor gasoline supplied in the United States Source: EIA

11 Μαρ-10 Μαϊ-10 Ιουλ-10 Σεπ-10 Νοε-10 Ιαν-11 Μαρ-11 Μαϊ-11 Ιουλ-11 Σεπ-11 Νοε-11 Ιαν-12 Μαρ-12 Μαϊ-12 Ιουλ-12 Σεπ-12 Νοε-12 1η Ενότητα: «Το Παρόν και το Μέλλον των Βιοκαυσίμων στην Ελλάδα και την Ευρώπη» % 10,5 Blend wall: ethanol, % of finished gasoline 10 9,5 including exports excluding exports 9 8,5 8 Source: EIA

12 Blend wall: projected % of finished gasoline % ethanol/ gasoline mandate 2014 mandate Thousand barrels 2015 mandate total ethanol consumption Percent blend (assuming constant 2012 gasoline demand) Source: EIA, EPA

13 log mln gallons 1000 Cellulosic ethanol: shortage Actual production Amended mandate Original mandate 1 0,1? 0, Source: EPA

14 Yes? U.S. biodiesel: the solution? No blend wall issues (1.1%, compared with 5% limit) Can substitute for cellulosic ethanol in advanced biofuel mandate Over-capacity (2.1 bln gallons vs mandate for 1.3 bln) But, depends on... Brazilian sugar cane market (sugar ethanol also counts as U.S. advanced biofuel ) Diesel prices Soybean oil/ biodiesel margin > 50% lifecycle GHG emissions saving

15 EU 2020 proposal: limit crop-based biofuels to 5% EU-27 renewable sources, percent of all transport fuel, ,9 0,3 3,4 Biodiesel Conventional ethanol Electric cars Source: European Environment Agency, 2011

16 EU 2020 proposal: publish ILUC factors gco2/ MJ Suggested CO2 emissions of crop-based biofuels % CO2 saving vs 80 gasoline Indirect 20 emissions (Proposed) Direct emissions (Renewable energy directive, 2009) Source: European Commission; Renewable Energy Directive 2009 Total % GHG saving

17 U.S. ethanol market Some conclusions Infrastructure problems exceeding E10 Technology problems meeting cellulosic ethanol targets Biodiesel can capitalise EU biofuel market Continuing concerns over environmental impacts Biodiesel appears vulnerable, at least for meeting targets

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