From the well-tempered environment to sustainability Christos S. Zerefos Academy of Athens President, Mariolopoulos-Kanaginis Foundation
Milankovitch cycles
Solar radiation (W m- 2 ) Thousand years ago Insolation values in watts per square meter (W m -2 ) over the last 500,000 years, for mid- June at 60 o N and 30 o N, and mid-december at 60 o S and 30 o S. (Berger και Loutre, 1991).
The atmosphere and the oceans of the Earth originated from the interior of the planet mainly from volcanoes N 2 CO 2 remains photosynthesis N 2 O 2 99% of the atmosphere H 2 O condensation ocean Formation of the ozone layer 3Ο 2 2Ο 3
Without the absorption of UV-B radiation from ozone, life would remain aquatic
Without the greenhouse gases the average temperature of the Earth would be about -19 o C, whereas today it is about +14.5 ο C
CO2 trapped in Glaciers 2100 A.D. 2007 A.D. CO2 (ppm) 1850 A.D. Years
Cyclical variations Thousand Years before present (2008)
«ΟΥΚ ΑΙΕΙ ΟΙ ΑΥΤΟΙ ΤΟΠΟΙ ΤΗΣ ΓΗΣ ΕΝΥΓΡΟΙ ΕΙΝΑΙ ΟΥΤΕ ΞΗΡΟΙ ΑΛΛΑ ΜΕΤΑΒΑΛΛΟΥΣΙΝ ΚΑΤΑ ΜΕΝΤΟΙ ΤΙΝΑ ΤΑΞΙΝ ΝΟΜΙΖΕΙΝ ΧΡΗ ΤΑΥΤΑ ΓΙΓΝΕΣΘΑΙ ΚΑΙ ΠΕΡΙΟ ΟΝ» ARISTOTLE S METEOROLOGICA Book Ι, Chapter 14 From Raphael s «School of Athens», Plato and Aristotle
«Αλλά μερικοί Έλληνες θέλοντες να αποκτήσουν όνομα ως Σοφοί, έδωκαν τρεις εξηγήσεις εις το ζήτημα της πλημμύρας του Νείλου... Η μία θεωρία υποστηρίζει ότι οι ετησίαι άνεμοι προκαλούν τας πλημμύρας του ποταμού, διότι τον εμποδίζουν να χύνεται εις την Θάλασσαν...» Herodotus History, Efterpi (20). Translation by Κ. Μ. Μekios, Papyros 1949
Nilometer in Elephantine Island (Upper Egypt)
Nile discharge. Number of etesian winds and El Nino.
11-year solar cycle activity from 1600 to 2000
Years IPCC, 2007 Reconstruction of the total solar irradiance time series starting as early as 1600.
Volcano of Santorini (1628 B.C.) Responsible for the legends of: Atlantis the plagues of Pharaoh
«...ΚΑΙ ΤΟ ΠΕΡΙ ΤΟΝ ΗΛΙΟΝ ΑΜΑΥΡΩΜΑ ΤΗΣ ΑΥΓΗΣ. ΟΛΟΝ ΓΑΡ ΕΚΕΙΝΟΝ ΤΟΝ ΕΝΙΑΥΤΟΝ (44 π.χ.) ΩΧΡΟΣ ΜΕΝ Ο ΚΥΚΛΟΣ (ΤΟΥ ΗΛΙΟΥ) ΚΑΙ ΜΑΡΜΑΡΥΓΑΣ ΟΥΚ ΕΧΩΝ ΑΝΕΤΕΛΛΕΝ, Α ΡΑΝΕΣ Ε ΚΑΙ ΛΕΠΤΟΝ ΑΠ ΑΥΤΟΥ ΚΑΤΗΕΙ ΤΟ ΘΕΡΜΟΝ, ΩΣΤΕ ΤΟΝ ΜΕΝ ΑΕΡΑ ΝΟΦΕΡΟΝ (ΖΟΦΕΡΟΝ) ΚΑΙ ΒΑΡΥΝ ΑΣΘΕΝΕΙΑ ΤΗΣ ΙΑΚΡΙΝΟΥΣΗΣ ΑΥΤΟΝ ΑΛΕΑΣ ΕΠΙΦΕΡΕΣΘΑΙ ΤΟΥΣ Ε ΚΑΡΠΟΥΣ ΗΜΙΠΕΠΤΟΥΣ ΚΑΙ ΑΤΕΛΕΙΣ ΑΠΑΝΘΗΣΑΙ ΚΑΙ ΠΑΡΑΚΜΑΣΑΙ ΙΑ ΤΗΝ ΨΥΧΡΟΤΗΤΑ ΤΟΥ ΠΕΡΙΕΧΟΝΤΟΣ (ΑΕΡΟΣ)» PLUTARCH S PARALLEL LIVES: CESAR VOLUME ΚΖ, 69, TRANSLAT. A.I. POURNARA, PAPYROS, No. 426
Volcano LAKI
Benjamin Franklin (1706-1790) During several of the summer months of the year 1783, when the effect of the sun s rays to heat the earth in these northern regions should have been greatest, there existed a constant fog over all Europe, and great part of North America. This fog was of a permanent nature; it was dry, andtheraysofthe sun seemed to have little effect towards dissipating it, as they easily do a moist fog, arising from water. They were indeed rendered so faint in passing through it, that when collected in the focus of a burning glass, they would scarce kindle brown paper. Of course, their summer effect in heating the earth was exceedingly diminished. Hence the earth was early frozen, Hence the first snows remained on it unmelted, and received continual additions. Hence the air was more chilled, and the winds more severely cold. Hence perhaps the winter of 1783-4, was more severe, than any that had happened for many years. The cause of this universal fog is not yet ascertained. Whether it was adventitious to this earth, and merely a smoke, proceeding from the consumption by fire of some of those great burning balls or globes which we happen to meet within our rapid course round the sun, and which are sometimes seen to kindle and be destroyed in passing our atmosphere, and whose smoke might be attracted and retained by our earth; or whether it was the vast quantity of smoke, long continuing to issue during the summer from Hecla in Iceland, and that other volcano which arose out of the sea near that island, which smoke might be spread by various winds, over
Reconstruction from Luterbacher et al. (2004) Anomalies based on 31 yr mean, 1770-1800 Significant at 90% level
Reconstruction from Luterbacher et al. (2004) Anomalies based on 31 yr mean, 1770-1800 Significant at 90% level
Reconstruction from Luterbacher et al. (2004) Anomalies based on 31 yr mean, 1770-1800 Significant at 90% level
Reconstruction from Luterbacher et al. (2004) Anomalies based on 31 yr mean, 1770-1800 Significant at 90% level
Reconstruction from Luterbacher et al. (2004) Anomalies based on 31 yr mean, 1770-1800 Significant at 90% level
Darkness by Lord Byron (1788-1824) I had a dream, which was not all a dream. The bright sun was extinguish'd, and the stars Did wander darkling in the eternal space, Rayless, and pathless, and the icy earth Swung blind and blackening in the moonless air; Morn came and went and came, and brought no day, And men forgot their passions in the dread Of this their desolation; and all hearts Were chill'd into a selfish prayer for light: And they did live by watchfires and the thrones, The palaces of crowned kings the huts, The habitations of all things which dwell, Were burnt for beacons; cities were consumed, And men were gather'd round their blazing homes To look once more into each other's face;... The volcano Tambora, in 1815, created the «Year Without Summer» (1816)
1817: 2 years after Tambora 1818: 3 years after Tambora
Friedrich Caspar David (1774-1840) Sunset after Tambora Sunset without volcano Woman in front of the Setting Sun, 1818, Museum Folkwang, Essen, Germany Evening, 1824, Kunsthalle, Manheim, Germany The chromatic understanding of the artist changes after the eruption of Tambora in 1815, and returns to normal levels after a few years.
El Chichon, 1982 Photo of the Sunset, Madison, Wisconsin, May 1982. (Αlan Robock)
Stevin was the firt author in the West (1585), following the Pythagorians to give a mathematically accurate specification for equal temperament. He appears to have been inspired by the writings of the Italian lutenist and musical theorist Vincenzo Galilei (father of Galileo).
STRADIVARIUS, 1680
William Shakespeare (1564-1616) He smote the sledded Polacks on the ice Hamlet, Act I, Scene I, line 63 The scene describes the cold and the freezing of the waters in the Baltic Sea (1589-1590) preceding the severe cold that prevailed during the 30-year war. Shakespeare includes tens of other references of climatological and meteorological events in his plays.
Aert van der Neer Winter Landscape with Sportsmen on a Frozen River. 1603-4
FROZEN THAMES 1677
IPCC, 2007
Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) IPCC, 2007
Positive NAO phase Negative NAO phase An enhanced Icelandic low and an enhanced subtropical high result in more and stronger winter storms crossing the Atlantic Ocean on a more northerly track, bringing moist air to the northern Europe A weak Icelandic low and a weak subtropical high result in fewer and weaker winter storms crossing on a more west-east pathway, bringing moist air into the Mediterranean
Correlation with NAO index Precipitation (mm/day) Global Precipitation Climatology Project data 1980-2009 Lisbon -0.67 Madrid -0.74 Valencia -0.29 Toulouse -0.31 Marseille -0.60 Nice -0.60 Genoa -0.66 Milan -0.11 Rome -0.49 Trieste -0.25 Naples -0.49 Malta -0.45 Bari -0.39 Ioannina -0.62 Naxos -0.64 Antalya -0.42 Nicosia -0.18 Adana -0.21
+ records since 1900 records since 1950 Stations with recovered precipitation data in Greece 11 stations in W. Greece 9 stations in E. Greece 9 stations in E. Aegean
Table of Stations with recovered precipitation data in Greece 11 stations in W. Greece 9 stations in E. Greece 9 stations in E. Aegean
Correlation between precipitation in Greece and NAO r = -0.38 ( >99% conf. level) r = -0.21 ( 95% conf. level) r = -0.19 ( 90% conf. level)
Table of correlations between precipitation and NAO
Precipitation (%) Temperature ( o C) YEAR WINTER SUMMER Temperature and precipitation change scenarios in the following 100 years in Europe (IPCC 2007; Tselioudis and Zerefos, 2006)
IPCC, 2007
Temperature anomalies (ºC) Year The extreme temperatures in Europe in the summer of 2003 are going to be normal by the year 2040 and low by the year 2060!