A Reliability and risk analysis of a broken FPSO cable in tandem

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1 32 1 Vol Journal of Harbin Engineering University Jan 2011 doi /j issn FPSO U A Reliability and risk analysis of a broken FPSO cable in tandem SUN Hai SUN Liping FAN Hongyuan Deepwater Engineering Research Center Harbin Engineering University Harbin China Abstract Broken hawser analysis in tandem is one of the key security analysis problems of offloading It has brought many difficulties to research and development of reliability assessment because of the complexity of stress in hawser and mooring systems Based on the weakest-failure modes theory a broken hawser risk analysis of hawser and mooring systems was classified into several orthogonal weakest-failure modes which were calculated respectively binding the software calculation results The system was classified as a series of systems and calculated by example which provided a feasible technical solution of the broken hawser analysis in tandem The research is of instructive significance to the security analysis problems of offloading in tandem Keywords offloading in tandem broken hawser analysis weakest failure modes system reliability FPSO floating production storage and offloading system 1-3 FPSO FPSO B gmail com 1962-

2 e i = g j S 0 = S - a 0j = S q j a 1 j 7 q j = a 0j a 1j 1 n i i e t j e j j i j = 1 2 n N 9 m 1 i N * k = sup Eki = S q t* k 9 2 m q t* k = max 1 i N q t k E * ki i = 1 2 N m * k 1 i N = sup Ei 1 k 2 m m * 1 i N sup Ei E 0 + * k E ki 2 E ki k * i = 1 P m { E } i * k = m P fi * k = m max 1 i N P fxi 5 { } P fi k 2 m * max 1 i N P fxi k 2 * 1 m Fig 1 Relationship of weakest failure modes and failure modes * k * k 1 S 2 1 g j S = a 0j + a 1j S 6 E = n i { } i =1 n i e i = { S q } j = S q t 8 P f i =1 = P m { E } i * k = P fmax = max 1 i N min 1 j n P fri 10 P fri i m * k = N 3 i = 1 10 P f = P{ N E } i = P{ m E } i * k 4 2

3 1 FPSO 13 CDF PDF CDF PDF FPSO f Xi ' X * i = f Xi X * i 15 X * i F Xi F Xi ' f Xi f Xi ' P fk = P n E ( ) i i = 1 i = 1 2 n 11 i 11 9 n max 2 P fk = P( ) i max = 1 2 n max 12 i max = max F Xi ' X * i = F Xi X * i 14 μ Xi ' = x * i - Φ -1 F Xi x * i σ Xi ' P fk σ Xi ' = Φ -1 F Xi x i ' 17 f m Xi x i ' m i = n max i max = 1 2 n max G imax k = R imax - S imax k i max = 1 2 n max 2 m 13 R imax S imax k 2 FPSO Fig 2 Reliability evaluation of broken hawser in tandem

14 32 1 0 10-10 3 0 3 4 0 7 MBL 0 06 13 5 3 Table 1 1 Main parameters of ship FPSO /m 235 6 244 64 / m 225 236 03 /m 46 42 00 /m 24 1 21 90 /m 16 12 00 /t 118 821 68 110 000 2 Table 2 FPSO Main

4 MBL Table 1 1 Main parameters of ship FPSO /m / m /m /m /m /t Table 2 FPSO Main parameters of mooring in tandem 1 FPSO - /m / kg m m /s 4 m 8 25 s / kg m m /s 3 /kn /kn / mm Ariane7 4 Fig 3 3 FPSO Schematic diagram of FPSO offloading in tandem / kn Table 3 Cable tension in tandem Line

5 1 FPSO 15 Table 4 4 Reliability vector of cable β 0 m β 10 m β - 10 m FPSO 1# 2# 3# 4 1 # 0 10 FPSO % 10% 1 # # Table 5 Reliability vector of 1# Line Table 6 FPSO J Z FPSO 6 ZHANG Wukui LIU Zhengou SONG Ruxin Key technology of FPSO in Progress J Shipbuilding of China Z SHIMAMURA Y FPSO /FSO State of the art J Journal of Marine Science and Technology ~ Reliability of broken hawser in tandem YAN G GU Y Effect of parameters on performance of LNG-FPSO offloading system in offshore associated gas fields J Applied Energy

6 WU D Y MEURE S SOLOMON D Self-healing polymeric materials A review of recent developments J Pro n 2 gress in Polymer Science Sv > 10 5 JONES A S DUTTA H Fatigue life modeling of self-healing polymer systems J Mechanics of Materials 2010 Re < BEJAN A LORENTE S WANG K M Network of channels for self-healing composite materials J Journal of Applied Physics WANG K M LORENTE S BEJAN A Vascularized networks with two optimized channels sizes J Journal of 2 Physics D Applied Physics DRY C M Cementitious materials USA P WHITE S R SOTTOS N R GEUBELLE P H et al Autonomic healing of polymer composites J Nature TRASK R S BOND I P Biomimetic self-healing of advanced composite structures using hollow glass fibres J Smart Materials and Structures ZHANG H LORENTE S BEJAN A Vascularization with trees that alternate with upside-down trees J Journal of Applied Physics LORENTE S BEJAN A Svelteness freedom to morph and constructal multi-scale flow structures J International Journal of Thermal Science CHHABRA R P RICHARDSON J F Non-Newtonian flow and applied rheology engineering applications M 2nd ed Burlington Butterworth-Heinermann FUCATU C H NISHIMOTO K The shadow effect on the dynamics of a shuttle tanker connected in tandem with a FP- SO C / /Proc of the 22nd Int Conf on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering S l TRONSTAD L The Use of Risk Analysis in Design Safety Aspects Related to the Design and Operation of a FPSO C / / SPE Americas E&P Environmental and Safety Conference San Antonio USA KINGSLEY E A Model for risk and reliability analysis of complex production systems application to FPSO /flow-riser system J Computers & Chemical Engineering tanker subjected to combined sea states J Probabilistic - J Engineering Mechanics SUN Hai LIANG Lifu HOU Gangling Optimization and investment-benefit model of the weakest failure modes of structural systems J Journal of Harbin Engineering University DUAN Yubo OU Jinping Optimum design of tall buildings based on reliability restraint J Journal of Natural Disasters suppl M CHENG Gengdong LI Gang CAI Yue Structural optimum design based on reliability analysis optimal fortification Intensity for aseismic structure Ⅱ M Beijing Science Press STIFF J FERRARI J KU A SPONGE R Comparative Risk Analysis of Two FPSO Mooring Configurations EB / OL 2003 http / /www otcnet org / 12 TEIXEIRAA A P SOARES C G Reliability analysis of a 13 TORGEIR M EFREN A U Reliability-based assessment of deteriorating ship structures operating in multiple sea loading climates J Reliability Engineering & System Safety

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