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4 1!"#$%&'()*+,- 71!"!"#$%!"L!" #$%&'()*+,-./!"#$%&'()*+!"#$!!"#$%&'()*+,!"#$%&'()*+,'(-./1!"#$%&'() *+,-./!"#$%&'()!*+,-.)/1!"# 2.2.2==!"#$%& ====!"#$%&'()*+,-.#/!"#$!"#$%&'()*+,!"# $%&!"#$%&'()!"#$#%&'()*# +!!!"#$%&'()*+,-!!"#$%&'()!"#!"#$!"#$%&'()*+!!"#$% 23!"#$ CO 2!"#$!"#$%&!"!"#$%&'()*+,-./! CO 2!"#$% ====!"#$%&'()*+!"#!"#$%&'()&'*+,-./!"#$%&'!"#!!"#$%&'()*+,-./!"#$%&'()*+,-./123 ====!"#$%&'()*+!"#!"#$%&'!"#$%&'()! CO 2!"#$%&'!"#!23!"#$ CO 2!"#$ 11 t x11-12z 211!"#$%&5185 t!"#$%&co 2!.65% x13z 152!"#$%&'()*+,-!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'(!"#$ x14z!"#$%&'()!"#$%&'()*!"#$%& 23!"#$%&'() 6.5%!"#$%&'()!!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&!" 11t!"#23CO 2!"#$%&'2% 23!"!"#$%&'(.65%(1+6.5%) 19 / (1+2%) 19 = 1.48% (1)!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"!"#$%&'23!"#$%&'!!"#$%&'() CO 2! 1.5%!"#$%CO 2 11t!"!"#$%&'()* 1.65 t!"#$%&'()*21523!"#$ ==!"#$%& ====!"#$%&'()*+,-./! 2==215 23!"#$!"#$%&' Table 2 Projected caps and emissions of Chinese civil aviation industry (215J23)! /%! / t CO 2!" / t !"#$%&'%()*+,-. 9%8%7%

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6 1!"#$%&'()*+,- 73!"!"#$%&'()*+,- ====!"#$!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&'()*MRV!!"#$%&'()*+!"#$%!"#$%!"#$%&'!!" !"#$%&'!"#$%215331!"#$!"#$MRV!" !"#$%&'()*+,-./ !"#$%&'()* ==! ====!"#$%&'(!"#$%&!"#$%&'()*+,-./12!"#$%&'()*+,-.!/!"#$%&!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&'( 216!"!"#$!"#$%&'()*216!"#$%&'()*+,-.#$%&'/!"#$%&'!"#$%&'()!"#$%&!"#$!"#!"#$%&'!"#$%&'()*+,-!./1%!"#$%&'()*+ L!"!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'(!"# P==! ==== Callan x17z!!"#$%&!"#$%&!'()&!*!!"#$%&'()*+,!"#$!"#$%&'()*+,-!"#$%&'()*+,- PKN==!" ====Shue x18z!"#$%&'()*+,-"!"#$%&!"#$%&'()!!"!"#$%&!!!"!"!"#$%&'!"#$%&'()!"#$!"#$%&'(!!!"#! x19z!"#$%&'()*+,-./123! ====!"#$%&'()*!"#$!"#$%&'!"!"#$!"#$%&'()*+!"#$%!"#$%&'()*$+,-.!!"#$!"#$%&$'()*+!"#!"#$%&'()*+,-! !"#$%!"#$%&'()*+,-.21!"#$%&'( )*+,!"#!"#$!"#$%&'()*+,-!"!"#$%&'()*+,-!7%!!"#$%&'()!"#$%&'()*+,-./123 ====!"#$%&#'(!"#$%!"#$%!&!"#$%&'("!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'!"#$%&'()*+,-./1!"#!"#$!"#!"!"#$%&'!"#$%&'()*+,-./123!"#$%&'()*+,-./1(2!"#$%!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&!"#$% PKO==! ====!"#$%&'()*+!,-./!"#$%&'()*+,!&-./1 ====221225!"#$%!215 23!"# 9%8% 7% !"#$%&'

7 = = = 74!"#$% 215!" 245 t2.4 t CO 2!"# PR /t CO 2 5!"#$%&'()* 8.671!! ! !"#$ 213!"#$%&4.2%35%!"!"#$ km!"#$%&'()*+1.1 x2z!" 1 km!"#$%=55.8%!"#$%&'()*+, 6%!"#$%&'()*+,!"#$!"#$%&'()!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'()*+,$ -./1 Q==! ====!"#$%&'()*+,-./1!"#$%&'()*+,-!"!"#$%&!"#$%&'!(!"#$%&!"#$%&"!"#$%!"#$ CO 2!"!"#$%&'()*+,-./!"!"!"#$%!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&!"#$%&'()*+,-./1!"#$%&'()*+,-./123!"#$%&'()*+,-!"#$%&'( )*+,-!"!"#$%&'()*+,-./!!"#$%&'()*+,-./123!"#$%&'! [1] ICAO. A summary of research and perspectives presented at the ICAO workshop on aviation and alternative fuels [R]. Montreal: Environmental Branch of the International Civil Aviation Organization, 29 [2]!"#$%&'().!"#=E F [M]. :!"#$, [3] Barrett M. Pollution control strategies for aircraft [DB/OL]. 24 [ ]. [4] Velzen A, Sinclair C, Lowe S. Study of impact of de minimis thresholds on market based measures to limit or reduce CO 2 emissions from aircraft [R]. Montreal: Environmental Branch of the International Civil Aviation Organization, 212 [5]!"#$%&. 213!"#$%&'()*+,, 1% [DB/OL]. 214 [ ]. main?mian_colid=357&top_id=316&main_artid=2469 [6] US Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Airlines and airports [DB/OL]. 214 [ ]. subject_areas/airline_information/index.html [7] UK Department for Transportation. Statistics by department for transport [DB/OL]. 214 [ ]. statistics?keywords=&topics%5b%5d=all&departments%5b%5d= department-for-transport&from_date=&to_date= [8] OECD. Climate and carbon: aligning prices and policies [DB/OL]. OECD Environment Policy Paper No [ ] &id=id&accname=guest&checksum=CD55B5E6935F42 D23C2A9B6C16FC6A7F [9] Boeing. Current market outlook [DB/OL]. 214 [ ]. Boeing_Current_Market_Outlook_214.pdf [1] Airbus. Global market forecast: future journeys [DB/OL]. 213 [ ]. [11]. CO 2!"#:!"#$%&'[J].!!, 213, 23 (12): 1-9 [12]!"#$%&'(215!"=[DB/OL]. 214 [ ]. [13] International Energy Agency. CO 2 emissions from fuel combustion highlights [DB/OL]. 213 ed. [ ]. publications/freepublications/publication/co2emissionsfromfuel CombustionHighlights213.pdf [14] IATA. The IATA technology roadmap [R]. 4th ed. Geneva: Aviation Environment, 213 [15] ICAO. Market-based measures (MBMs)-evaluation of options for a global MBM scheme(c-wp/13894) [R]. Montreal: ICAO Council, 212 [16] Rypdal K. IPCC methodologies and reporting principles [DB/OL]. 29 [ ]. [17] Callan J, Thomas M. Environmental economics & management [M]. :!"#$, 27 [18] Shue H. Subsistence emissions and luxury emissions [J]. Law & Policy, 1993 (15): 39-6 [19] Saxifrage B. Is jet-setting compatible with climate [DB/OL]. 213 [ ]. =!"#$%&'(!"#$%&!"!" 22!"#$ ICAO 212!"#$%&'()*+,

8 1!"#$%&'()*+,- 75 [2] setting-compatible-safe-climate#print Brons M, Pels E, Nijkamp P, et al. Price elasticities of demand for passenger air travel: a meta-analysis [J]. Journal of Air Transport Management, 22 (8): Analysis on the Framework of Chinese Civil Aviation Industry Participation in the National Carbon Markets Wang Ren, Lu Jixing ECER Research and Promotion Center, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 33, China Abstract: A framework on the Chinese civil aviation participation in the national carbon market is proposed based on the industry s characters and the development stage of the Chinese civil aviation. It focuses on the establishment of the CO 2 emissions Cap for the Chinese civil aviation and the design on the distribution of the Cap among Chinese aviation operators. With an assessment on the fairness and cost-efficiency, the framework would not cause tangible competition distortion among Chinese aviation operators and would increase the sector s operation cost by USD 17 millionjusd 1.43 billion under different scenarios. However, the framework would not severely impact the growth of Chinese civil aviation if it is taken into account that the industry has the capacity to transfer over 6% of the cost. Key words: Chinese civil aviation industry; CO 2 emission reduction; carbon market; framework ==!"#$%& 214!"#$%&!"#$%&'()*+,-!"# $%!"#$%&'!"#$%&'()*+,-./12 OMNQ!"#$!"#$%& == == == == == == == == == == == ==== == ====== ====== == == == == == ==== ====== == == == == == == ======== == ====== ====== == == == ====== == == == == == ====== == == == ====== ==== == == ====== == == == == ======== == == == == == == == == == ====== ====== ====== == == == == ====== == == == == == == ====== == == ====== == == ====== == == ====== == == == == == == == == == ====== == == == ====== == == == == == == == ====== == == == ====== == == ====== ==

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