. - 1. *, 1., 2., 3. 1. 1,, &, 54124,, pvenetsn@geo.auth.gr, kazakis@geo.auth.gr, kvoudour@geo.auth.gr 2,,, 54124,, chanag@geo.auth.gr 3,, lpcol@civil.auth.gr : Modflow, RegCM3,,.. -.,,, - -. -,,., -. - MODFLOW. - RegCM3.,., -. ASSESSMENT OF THE CLIMATE CHANGES IMPACT IN GROUNDWATER BALANCE USING CLIMATE AND GROUNDWATER FLOW MODELS. A CASE STUDY OF THE COASTAL AREA OF PERAIA-EPANOMI VENETSANOU P. *, KAZAKIS., ANAGNOSTOPOULOU.C, KOLOKYTHA E. and VOUDOURIS K. Keywords: Modflow, RegCM3, Overexploitation, Climate scenarios. Abstract The aim of this study, is the combination of hydrological and climate models in order to assess the hydrodynamic condition of the aquifers in the future. First of all, it was necessary to choose an area of the municipality of Thermaikos, which is extended in the coastal zone of the eastern Thermaikos Gulf. In this study area, the continuous population increase in combination with the intensive cultivation in the region, have resulted in an increase of water demand. The main source of water demand of the study area is the underground water. Therefore, the continuous growing demand to cover the water needs of the study area, has resulted in the overexploitation of the reserves of underground water. The steady-state MODFLOW was used, in order to simu- 10 o ιεθνές Υδρογεωλογικό Συνέδριο / Θεσσαλονίκη, 2014 57
late the groundwater flow. The aquifer is developed within the sandstone marl series. The model RegCM3, was used for the assessment of climate changes in the research area, which follows the A1B emissions scenario. In accordance with the climate model RegCM3, is estimated that during the period 2021-2050 precipitation will be reduced by 4 %. The reduction of precipitation is expected to be greater during the period 2071-2100 and amounts to 22%. The decrease of precipitation, which is estimated, has the effect of reducing the recharge of aquifers in the research area. In the meanwhile, the balance of groundwater is deficient and is observed seawater intrusion into the land. Specifically, the reduction of precipitation by 4 % during the future period 2021-2050, will result in increase of inflows from the sea by 6%, and 3% increase in inflows from East and Northeast. For the future period 2071-2100 the reduction of precipitation is estimated at 22% having the result of increasing the inflows from the sea by 43%, and 13% of inflows from East and Northeast. 1. (EEA 2007) (IPCC 2007; IPCC 2008).,, -. ( 2005)., -., -. - GMS (Groundwater Modeling System), MODFLOW (Modular three dimensional finite difference ground water flow model) (U.S.G.S.) (McDonald and Harbaugh 2003). MODFLOW - (Lachaal et al. 2012),, - (Dams et al. 2008)., (IPCC 2007). - - (Downscaling methods), : (Empirical Statistical downscaling methods) (Model based downscaling methods, Dynamical downscaling) (IPCC 2007)., -,. 2.,.,,. -, -. 58 10 th International Hydrogeological Congress of Greece / Thessaloniki, 2014
135 Km 2, - - - ( 1). 0-213 m Dikau (1989),.,,. 50264 ( 2011) 70%. 68.000,.., 1965-2011, 15 C 475 mm ( 2014). 18% 22% (Kazakis et al. 2013).,., - -,, -.. 1.,... 4. Figure 1. Location of the study area, the meteorological station of Mikra and the four grid points., : 80, 60 m ( 2013; Kazakis et al. 2013). ( 2). 28-230 m 2 /d, - 0.01-5% k=10-5 m/s,. k=0,864 m/day, - +45 m -35 m ( - 10 o ιεθνές Υδρογεωλογικό Συνέδριο / Θεσσαλονίκη, 2014 59
) (Pavlou et al. 2013; Kazakis et al. 2013). - -,,. 3.,, MODFLOW (Modular three dimensional difference groundwater flow model). -, - - 137 Km 2 80 m. 100 m x 100 m. (Top Elevation), (Bottom Elevation) - (...) DEM....,. - (1) ( 2013) (DEM)... - -. k=10-5 m/s=0,864 m/day. P (mm) = 0,23 H (m) + 462,9 (1), ( : -1), ( : 1), - ( : 0). 2. (, ). Figure 2. Geological map of the study area (IGME, Thessaloniki and Epanomi maps). 60 10 th International Hydrogeological Congress of Greece / Thessaloniki, 2014
-, 27,. - (Preconditioned Conjugate Gradient, P.C.G2)., RegCM3, 1. RegCM3, Giorgi et al. (1993a,b), - Giorgi and Mearns (1999) Pal et al. (2007). (Torma et al. 2008; Zanis et al. 2009; Torma et al. 2011) - RegCM3 - (default parameterization). RegCM3, - 1, (mm) - (Grid point) Grid 2, 1961-1990... ( 1)., -. -.,. Grid 2 1961-1990 ( 3). 3. (mm) Grid 1 - Grid 2. Figure 3. Correlation diagram of the rainfall fluctuation between Mikra station and the Grid 1 - Grid 2., 2021-2050 2071-2100, -. -. 4. 2021-2050 2071-2100. RegCM3-2021-2050 2071-2100 - 1961-1990 ( 4 5). (2): P= x i x (2) 10 o ιεθνές Υδρογεωλογικό Συνέδριο / Θεσσαλονίκη, 2014 61
x = (1961-1990) x i =. RegCM3 2021-2050 4%, - 2071-2100 22%. 4. (mm) 2021-2050. Figure 4. Rainfall variation diagram between dry-wet period of 2021-2050. 5. (mm) 2071-2100. Figure 5. Rainfall variation diagram between dry-wet period of 2071-2100. 462 mm 504 mm 101 mm 110 mm, 2,8 10-4 m/day 2,9 10-4 m/day 14 10 6 m 3. 25 10 6 m 3, 20x10 6 m 3 5x10 6 m 3. MODFLOW. ( 6). ( 1) - 62 10 th International Hydrogeological Congress of Greece / Thessaloniki, 2014
(Pavlou et al. 2013; Voudouris et al. 2006). 1. Table 1. Inflow-outflow balance of the aquifer 14,06 ( 10 6 m 3 / ) 3,36 8,23 ( 10 6 m 3 / ) 24,64 1,02 6.. Figure 6. Result of the groundwater flow simulation with the location of the observation points of the aquifer. 4.1 2021-2050 2071-2100.., MODFLOW, -,. - RegCM3 MODFLOW 2021-2050 2071-2100. - 10 o ιεθνές Υδρογεωλογικό Συνέδριο / Θεσσαλονίκη, 2014 63
2021-2050 - 4%, 2071-2100 - 22%, 1961-1990. -. -, 2021-2050 4%. MODFLOW 2021-2050 - 6%., 3% / ( 2). 2. 2021-2050 Table 2. Inflow-outflow balance of the aquifer for the period 2021-2050 13,50 ( 10 6 m 3 / ) 3,56 8,44 ( 10 6 m 3 / ) 24,64 0,92 7. 2071-2100. Figure 7. Results of the groundwater flow simulation based on the climatic scenario of the period 2071-2100. 2071-2100 22%. - MODFLOW 2071-2100 7. - 64 10 th International Hydrogeological Congress of Greece / Thessaloniki, 2014
( 3), 43%., 13% - /. 3. 2071-2100 Table 3. Inflow-outflow balance of the aquifer for the period 2071-2100 10,97 ( 10 6 m 3 / ) 4,79 9,37 (x 10 6 m 3 / ) 24,64 0,56 5. RegCM3, - ( 2021-2050 2071-2100)., -,., 4%, 2021-2050, - 6% 3% - /. 2071-2100 22%., 43% 13% - /.. - :,,,,, -,,,, -,., -. 6.,. (2005). - :,, 10: 130-146.,. (2013). -,,.,. (2104)., -,,,....... (1969). 1:50.000. ( -,., Bizon, G.)...... (1969). 1:50.000. (Kockel, F.,,.,,.,,.).. 10 o ιεθνές Υδρογεωλογικό Συνέδριο / Θεσσαλονίκη, 2014 65
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