Χρηµατοοικονοµική ανάλυση βιωσιµότητας Αθήνα, Απρίλιος 2013 ΣΥΣTEMA ΜΕΛΕΤΗΤΙΚΗ ΕΠΕ - ΑΛΙΚΗ ΤΣΑΡΟΥΧΗ Μεσογείων 409, Αγία Παρασκευή 15342 τηλ: 210 6013301, fax: 210 6014884 e-mail: ipap@systema.com.gr Σαµοθράκης 4, Νέα Ερυθραία 14671 τηλ: 210 8131410, fax: 210 6105703 e-mail: atsaro@tee.gr
Περιεχόµενα Executive Summary... 6 1. Project description...7 2. Demand analysis...8 3. Estimation of revenues... 13 4. Maintenance and operating costs... 14 5. Financial analysis and indicators Union Assistance... 18 6. Sensitivity and risk analysis... 26 Επιτελική περίληψη... 28 1. Συνοπτική περιγραφή του έργου... 29 2. Εκτίµηση επιβατικής κίνησης... 30 3. Προβλεπόµενα έσοδα... 34 4. Κόστος συντήρησης και λειτουργίας... 35 5. Χρηµατοοικονοµική ανάλυση και δείκτες ποσοστό κοινοτικής συνδροµής... 39 6. Ανάλυση ευαισθησίας και κινδύνων... 47 0. Εισαγωγή... 49 0.1 Ιστορικό και αντικείµενο της µελέτης... 50 0.2 Μεθοδολογική Προσέγγιση... 50 0.3 Οµάδα Έργου... 52 0.4 Ευχαριστίες... 52 1. Προσδιορισµός έργου... 53 1.1 Περιγραφή του έργου... 54 1.2 Ιστορικό και πρόοδος του έργου... 56 1.3 ιαχωρισµός φυσικού και οικονοµικού αντικειµένου µεταξύ Γ ΚΠΣ και ΕΣΠΑ... 56 1.4 Εναλλακτικές επιλογές (σενάρια)... 58 1.5 Προϋπολογισµός... 58 1.6 Χρηµατοδότηση έργου... 58 1.7 Υπολειµµατική αξία έργου... 59 2. Εκτίµηση Επιβατικής Κίνησης... 62 2.1 Προσδιορισµός Επιβατικής Κίνησης Έτους Βάσης... 63 2.2 Εκτίµηση Μελλοντικής Επιβατικής Κίνησης... 68 2.2.1 Σενάριο ΧΩΡΙΣ το έργο...68 2.2.2 Σενάριο ΜΕ το έργο...70 2.3 Συγκριτική αξιολόγηση των σεναρίων ΧΩΡΙΣ και ΜΕ το έργο... 74 3. Προβλεπόµενα Έσοδα... 78 3.1 Κατηγορίες προβλεπόµενων εσόδων... 79 3.2 Προβλεπόµενα έσοδα από κόµιστρα... 79 3.2.1 Ονοµαστικό εισιτήριο και µέσο κόµιστρο (έσοδο) ανά επιβάτη...79 3.2.2 Εκτίµηση εσόδων από κόµιστρα...80 3.3 Προβλεπόµενα λοιπά έσοδα... 81 3.4 Προβλεπόµενα συνολικά έσοδα... 82 4. Κόστος συντήρησης και λειτουργίας... 84 Σύµπραξη ΣΥΣTEMA Μελετητική ΕΠΕ Αλίκη Τσαρούχη 2
4.1.1 Γενικά...85 4.2 Παραγόµενο έργο... 85 4.3 Κόστος µισθοδοσίας προσωπικού συντήρησης και λειτουργίας... 86 4.3.1 Γενικά - Παραδοχές...86 4.3.2 Συνοδοί συρµών...87 4.3.3 Προσωπικό συντήρησης...87 4.3.4 Προσωπικό λειτουργίας σταθµών...87 4.3.5 Προσωπικό Κέντρου Ελέγχου Λειτουργίας (ΚΕΛ)...88 4.3.6 Λοιπό διοικητικό προσωπικό...88 4.3.7 Συνολικό προσωπικό και κόστος µισθοδοσίας...88 4.4 Κόστος ενέργειας... 89 4.5 Κόστος ανταλλακτικών... 90 4.6 απάνες καθαρισµού, φύλαξης και συντήρησης στοιχείων σταθµών... 90 4.7 Άλλες δαπάνες... 91 4.8 Συνολικό κόστος συντήρησης και λειτουργίας... 92 5. Χρηµατοοικονοµική ανάλυση... 95 5.1 Μεθοδολογία και παραδοχές... 96 5.2 Κόστος υλοποίησης της επένδυσης... 97 5.3 Χρηµατοοικονοµικοί δείκτες αποτελέσµατα ανάλυσης... 99 5.4 Υπολογισµός κοινοτικής συνδροµής... 100 5.5 Χρηµατοοικονοµική αξιολόγηση επενδυµένων κεφαλαίων («εθνικών πόρων»)... 100 5.6 Ανάλυση χρηµατοοικονοµικής βιωσιµότητας της επένδυσης... 100 6. Ανάλυση ευαισθησίας και κινδύνων... 112 6.1 Μεθοδολογία... 113 6.2 Αποτελέσµατα - συµπεράσµατα... 113 Παράρτηµα: Χάρτης έργου... 115 Σύµπραξη ΣΥΣTEMA Μελετητική ΕΠΕ Αλίκη Τσαρούχη 3
Κατάλογος Πινάκων και ιαγραµµάτων Table 1: Project cost per programming period...7 Table 2: Project Cost...8 Table 3: Without Project Scenario: Future Demand per mode...10 Table 4: With Project Scenario: Future Demand per mode...11 Table 5: Projected Revenues (realistic scenario)...13 Table 6: Number of employees and annual personnel cost for the years 2020-2046...14 Table 7: Maintenance and operating cost for Thessaloniki Metro...16 Table 8: Calculation of Union Assistance...18 Table 9: Financial analysis for the realistic sub-scenario...20 Table 10: Financial return on national capital...22 Table 11: Financial Sustainability...24 Table 12: Results of the sensitivity analysis (realistic scenario)...26 Πίνακας 1: Προϋπολογισµός έργων ανά χρονική περίοδο...29 Πίνακας 2: Προϋπολογισµός έργου...30 Πίνακας 3: Σενάριο ΧΩΡΙΣ το έργο: Μελλοντική Ζήτηση ανά µέσο...32 Πίνακας 4: Σενάριο ΜΕ το έργο: Εκτίµηση ζήτησης ανά µέσο για το σενάριο ΜΕ το έργο...33 Πίνακας 5: Εκτίµηση εσόδων (ρεαλιστικό σενάριο)...34 Πίνακας 6: Προσωπικό και κόστος µισθοδοσίας Μετρό Θεσσαλονίκης για τα έτη 2020-2046...36 Πίνακας 7: Συνολικό κόστος συντήρησης και λειτουργίας του Μετρό Θεσσαλονίκης...37 Πίνακας 8: Υπολογισµός κοινοτικής συνδροµής...39 Πίνακας 9: Χρηµατοοικονοµική ανάλυση έργου Μετρό Θεσσαλονίκης για το ρεαλιστικό σενάριο...41 Πίνακας 10: Χρηµατοοικονοµική ανάλυση επενδυµένων κεφαλαίων (εθνικών πόρων)...41 Πίνακας 11: Ανάλυση Χρηµατοοικονοµικής βιωσιµότητας...45 Πίνακας 12: Αποτελέσµατα ανάλυσης ευαισθησίας για χρηµατοοικονοµική ανάλυση...48 Πίνακας 0.1: Μέση ετήσια µεταβολή είκτη Τιµών Καταναλωτή...51 Πίνακας 1.1: Προϋπολογισµός έργων...58 Πίνακας 1.2: Προϋπολογισµός σύµβασης µελέτης - κατασκευής...60 Πίνακας 1.3: Προϋπολογισµός λοιπών εργασιών έργου...60 Πίνακας 1.4: ιάρθρωση χρηµατοδότησης έργου...61 Πίνακας 2.1: Ελάχιστες, Μέγιστες και Μέσες τιµές ελαστικοτήτων ζήτησης ανά µέσο και παράµετρο...65 Πίνακας 2.2: Σενάρια µεταβολών ανά παράµετρο...66 Πίνακας 2.3 : Έτος βάσης 2012 ιορθωµένη Επιβατική κίνηση ανά µέσο...67 Πίνακας 2.4 : Μέση ετήσια µεταβολή ΑΕΠ για τα έτη 2012-2020...68 Πίνακας 2.5: Εκτίµηση µεταβολής στη ζήτηση ανά µέσο λόγω ετήσιας µεταβολής ΑΕΠ...69 Πίνακας 2.6: Εκτίµηση ζήτησης (επιβιβάσεις ανά µέσο για το σενάριο ΧΩΡΙΣ το έργο). 2017-2046...69 Πίνακας 2.7: Ετήσια αύξηση µετακινήσεων µε Μετρό από τον πρώτο χρόνο λειτουργίας του, όπως δίνεται από το µοντέλο µετακινήσεων και αποµείωση της λόγω επικαιροποίησης παραδοχών ΑΕΠ...70 Πίνακας 2.7: Εκτίµηση ζήτησης ανά µέσο για το σενάριο ΜΕ το έργο...72 ιάγραµµα 1: Σενάριο ΜΕ το έργο: Επιβιβάσεις στο Μετρό στο Βασικό, Ρεαλιστικό και Απαισιόδοξο σενάριο...74 ιάγραµµα 2 Συνολικές µετακινήσεις ΧΩΡΙΣ και ΜΕ το έργο (Ρεαλιστικό υπο-σενάριο)...75 Σύµπραξη ΣΥΣTEMA Μελετητική ΕΠΕ Αλίκη Τσαρούχη 4
ιάγραµµα 3 Μετακινήσεις ανά µέσο ΧΩΡΙΣ και ΜΕ το έργο (Ρεαλιστικό υπο-σενάριο)...76 Πίνακας 3.1: Στοιχεία για τον υπολογισµό του µέσου εσόδου ανά επιβάτη...79 Πίνακας 3.2: Εκτίµηση εσόδων από κόµιστρα...80 Πίνακας 3.3: Έσοδα λειτουργίας ετών 2006-2012...81 Πίνακας 3.4: Εκτίµηση λοιπών εσόδων (εκτός των εσόδων από κόµιστρα)...82 Πίνακας 3.5: Εκτίµηση συνολικών εσόδων...83 Πίνακας 4.1: Ανθρώπινο δυναµικό Μετρό Αθήνας...86 Πίνακας 4.2: Ετήσιο κόστος µισθοδοσίας Μετρό Αθήνας...86 Πίνακας 4.3: Προσωπικό και κόστος µισθοδοσίας Μετρό Θεσσαλονίκης για τα έτη 2020-2046...89 Πίνακας 4.4: Ετήσιο κόστος ενέργειας Μετρό Αθήνας...89 Πίνακας 4.5: Ετήσιο κόστος ανταλλακτικών Μετρό Αθήνας...90 Πίνακας 4.6: Ετήσιο κόστος λοιπών δαπανών Μετρό Αθήνας...90 Πίνακας 4.7: ιάφορα άλλα έξοδα του Μετρό Αθήνας...91 Πίνακας 4.8: Συνολικό κόστος συντήρησης και λειτουργίας του Μετρό Θεσσαλονίκης...93 Πίνακας 5.1: Κόστος υλοποίησης της επένδυσης...98 Πίνακας 5.2: Κύρια χρηµατοοικονοµικά µεγέθη...99 Πίνακας 5.3: Υπολογισµός κοινοτικής συνδροµής... 100 Πίνακας 5.4: Χρηµατοοικονοµική ανάλυση έργου Μετρό Θεσσαλονίκης για το ρεαλιστικό σενάριο... 102 Πίνακας 5.5: Χρηµατοοικονοµική ανάλυση έργου Μετρό Θεσσαλονίκης για το βασικό σενάριο... 104 Πίνακας 5.6: Χρηµατοοικονοµική ανάλυση έργου Μετρό Θεσσαλονίκης για το απαισιόδοξο σενάριο... 106 Πίνακας 5.7: Χρηµατοοικονοµική ανάλυση επενδυµένων κεφαλαίων (εθνικών πόρων)... 108 Πίνακας 5.8: Ανάλυση Χρηµατοοικονοµικής βιωσιµότητας... 110 Πίνακας 6.1: Αποτελέσµατα ανάλυσης ευαισθησίας για χρηµατοοικονοµική ανάλυση... 114 Σύµπραξη ΣΥΣTEMA Μελετητική ΕΠΕ Αλίκη Τσαρούχη 5
Executive Summary Σύµπραξη ΣΥΣTEMA Μελετητική ΕΠΕ Αλίκη Τσαρούχη 6
1. Project description The project involves the construction of a driverless metro system for the city of Thessaloniki (base project). The main project characteristics of the base project are the following (see also the map in the Annex): 13 modern center platform stations 9.5 km of Line (with two independent single track tunnels) constructed mostly (7.7 km) by means of two Tunnel Boring Machines. The remaining section of the Line will be constructed by the Cut and Cover method. 24 ultra-automatic and state-of-the-art trains, fully air-conditioned, which will be run without a train driver, with an attendant aboard the train. Platform screen doors, which guarantee greater safety level A Depot at Pylea covering a surface of 50,000 square meters. The Depot facilities will include the operational and administrative headquarters of the metro system. Within the framework of the same development plan, provision has been made for the development of one underground parking facility at Nea Elvetia station (capacity 650 places). The project also includes the required electrical, mechanical and railway systems, the project detailed design and research, preliminary works such as traffic arrangements and utilities network relocation, extended archaeological surveys and protection of the ancient findings and other important monuments. The construction of the project started in June 2006 and it was co-financed by the 3 rd CSF (2000-2006, ERDF) through the OP/RAPUD. During the NSRF period (2007-2013) the project is supposed to be cofinanced by the ROP Macedonia and Thrace. The beneficiary of the project is Attiko Metro SA, the stateowned company that is responsible for the construction of the Athens Metro network while the operator will be a state owned company other than Attiko Metro SA. The non eligible cost and the part of the eligible cost that is not financed by the ERDF is covered by national funds. These funds are financed by EIB loan agreements. The loan agreement s duration is 30 years, it grants a 10-year grace period and it amounts to 650.000.000. The project cost includes all of the required expenditure for its implementation (design-construction contract which includes also the archaeological surveys and the rolling stock supply, utilities, expropriations, project management and others) and it can be analyzed as follows according to the programming period (3 rd CSF, NSRF and 2014-2021 programming period): Table 1: Project cost per programming period, Current prices, not including VAT Period Expenditure 2003-2009 229.000.000,00 2009-2015 776.751.462,28 2016-262.848.537,72 Total 1.268.600.000,00 The VAT element isn t eligible because it is recovered (it is not definitely borne ) by Attiko Metro SA. Therefore, all expenditures do not include VAT. The project cost is analyzed in the following table: Σύµπραξη ΣΥΣTEMA Μελετητική ΕΠΕ Αλίκη Τσαρούχη 7
Year Design- Construction contract Utilities Table 2: Project Cost Project management, Current prices, not including VAT Expropriation Others Total 2003 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 202.971,76 202.971,76 2004 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 523.887,70 523.887,70 2005 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 568.535,36 568.535,36 2006 48.897.766,02 143.360,79 4.893.524,89 0,00 87.493,50 54.022.145,20 2007 32.994.231,22 368.660,65 3.764.923,01 54.103.136,83 400.721,49 91.631.673,20 2008 41.099.908,03 195.142,95 4.657.979,96 3.570.964,06 3.140.722,60 52.664.717,60 2009 61.180.626,34 906.513,88 11.400.406,87-14.835.814,50 1.154.643,00 59.806.375,59 2010 57.176.017,18 254.690,88 15.338.791,64 13.182.280,53 46.291,89 85.998.072,12 2011 63.627.319,96 0,00 15.005.342,56 7.898.036,81 132.352,13 86.663.051,46 2012 50.000.000,00 300.000,00 11.750.600,00 3.290.000,00 2.000.000,00 67.340.600,00 2013 123.000.000,00 150.000,00 11.891.281,00 6.950.000,00 2.000.000,00 143.991.281,00 2014 133.800.000,00 150.000,00 17.800.000,00 3.841.396,27 2.200.000,00 157.791.396,27 2015 180.000.000,00 5.000.000,00 12.066.598,93 0,00 7.480.156,09 204.546.755,02 2016 238.530.906,87 6.531.630,85 10.010.411,29 0,00 7.775.588,71 262.848.537,72 Σύνολο 1.030.306.775,62 14.000.000,00 118.579.860,15 78.000.000,00 27.713.364,23 1.268.600.000,00 The projects residual value equals the residual value of the Civil Engineering Works (.261.965.809,96 in current prices 302.910.426,26 in 2012 prices), because the useful life of the electrical/mechanical works coincides with the end of the time horizon of the analysis (2046). 2. Demand analysis In order to estimate the passenger demand of Thessaloniki Metro and the modal split with and without the project, a traditional four-step traffic model, that was developed in 2007 under the framework of a feasibility study elaborated for Attiko Metro, was used. Within that model, two scenarios were examined: a) Without Project (i.e. Metro) scenario b) With Project (i.e. Metro) scenario Results were provided for the target years 2002 and 2012, which (in 2007) were supposed to be the first and the tenth year of metro operation. Year 2012 represents the base year of the current study, however the model s values should be updated taking into consideration the economic crisis in Greece during the last five years, which affected both the mobility and the modal split. A mathematical approach based on modes elasticity on several parameters (economic indicators such as GDP growth, wages and purchasing power, fares, level of public transport service and gas price) was adopted, following relative literature review (McCarthy, 2001, Transportation Economics), in order to calculate the decrease in the demand in each mode (private vehicle and taxi, bus and metro). This approach was validated using real, official data from the Thessaloniki Bus Authority and finally 8,4% decrease was adopted for public transport and 15,3% for private vehicle trips. The methodology for the demand forecasts differ between the two scenarios. More specifically, for the Without Project scenario the annual change in the demand was estimated taking into account the elasticity of each mode with regards to the expected GDP growth (based on national data and IMF projections). On the other hand, the calculation of the annual change of the metro demand for the With Project scenario from 2017-2046, 30-years metro operation period, is based on the annual growth rate indicated by the Σύµπραξη ΣΥΣTEMA Μελετητική ΕΠΕ Αλίκη Τσαρούχη 8
transport demand model. Adopting IMF projections regarding GDP rates for 2017-2020, three subscenarios were examined for the period 2021-2046: i. Business as Usual sub-scenario: annual GDP growth for the years 2021-2046 = 3,0%, as foreseen by the transport demand model. In this case, the study team adopted the growth rates as defined by the model. ii. Realistic sub-scenario: annual GDP growth for the years 2021-2046 = 2,5%. The model s growth rates were slightly decreased taking into consideration the elasticity of metro usage with regards to GDP growth rate. iii. Pessimistic sub-scenario: annual GDP growth for the years 2021-2046 = 1,5%. The model s growth rates were decreased even more, taking into consideration the elasticity of metro usage with regards to GDP growth rate. The comparison of these three sub-scenarios implied insignificant differences for the purposes of the current study, however the Financial Analysis will provide results for all sub-scenarios. The demand forecasts for both scenarios (Without and With Project) are presented in the following tables. Σύµπραξη ΣΥΣTEMA Μελετητική ΕΠΕ Αλίκη Τσαρούχη 9
Table 3: Without Project Scenario: Future Demand per mode Year Private vehicle - taxi Bus Total 2017 370.236.981 194.008.852 564.245.832 2018 373.450.267 195.097.241 568.547.509 2019 376.396.790 196.092.237 572.489.027 2020 378.970.591 196.958.965 575.929.556 2021 381.462.323 197.796.041 579.258.363 2022 383.970.438 198.636.674 582.607.111 2023 386.495.043 199.480.880 585.975.923 2024 389.036.248 200.328.673 589.364.922 2025 391.594.162 201.180.070 592.774.232 2026 394.168.893 202.035.085 596.203.979 2027 396.760.554 202.893.735 599.654.288 2028 399.369.254 203.756.033 603.125.287 2029 401.995.107 204.621.996 606.617.103 2030 404.638.225 205.491.640 610.129.865 2031 407.298.721 206.364.979 613.663.700 2032 409.976.710 207.242.030 617.218.741 2033 412.672.307 208.122.809 620.795.116 2034 415.385.628 209.007.331 624.392.958 2035 418.116.788 209.895.612 628.012.400 2036 420.865.906 210.787.668 631.653.574 2037 423.633.099 211.683.516 635.316.615 2038 426.418.487 212.583.171 639.001.658 2039 429.222.189 213.486.649 642.708.838 2040 432.044.324 214.393.968 646.438.292 2041 434.885.016 215.305.142 650.190.158 2042 437.744.385 216.220.189 653.964.574 2043 440.622.554 217.139.125 657.761.679 2044 443.519.647 218.061.966 661.581.613 2045 446.435.789 218.988.729 665.424.518 2046 449.371.104 219.919.431 669.290.536 Σύµπραξη ΣΥΣTEMA Μελετητική ΕΠΕ Αλίκη Τσαρούχη 10
Year Private Vehicle - Taxi Business As Usual sub-scenario: annual GDP growth 2021-2046 = 3,0% Bus Metro Total Table 4: With Project Scenario: Future Demand per mode Private Vehicle - Taxi Realistic sub-scenario: annual GDP growth 2021-2046 = 2,5% Bus Metro Total Private Vehicle - Taxi Pessimistic sub-scenario: annual GDP growth 2021-2046 =1,5% Bus Metro Total 2017 364.219.360 130.656.231 74.354.565 569.230.155 364.219.360 130.656.231 74.354.565 569.230.155 364.219.360 130.656.231 74.354.565 569.230.155 2018 367.380.420 131.389.212 78.749.807 577.519.439 367.380.420 131.389.212 78.749.807 577.519.439 367.380.420 131.389.212 78.749.807 577.519.439 2019 370.279.051 132.059.297 81.959.017 584.297.366 370.279.051 132.059.297 81.959.017 584.297.366 370.279.051 132.059.297 81.959.017 584.297.366 2020 372.811.020 132.642.999 84.489.846 589.943.865 372.811.020 132.642.999 84.489.846 589.943.865 372.811.020 132.642.999 84.489.846 589.943.865 2021 375.752.499 133.319.478 87.077.878 596.149.855 375.262.252 133.206.732 87.001.837 595.470.821 374.281.759 132.981.239 86.849.755 594.112.753 2022 378.717.186 133.999.408 89.665.909 602.382.503 377.729.601 133.772.860 89.509.307 601.011.769 375.758.301 133.320.341 89.196.512 598.275.154 2023 381.705.264 134.682.805 92.253.941 608.642.010 380.213.173 134.341.395 92.012.260 606.566.829 377.240.667 133.660.308 91.530.165 602.431.140 2024 384.716.919 135.369.687 94.841.973 614.928.578 382.713.075 134.912.346 94.510.701 612.136.122 378.728.882 134.001.142 93.850.761 606.580.784 2025 387.752.335 136.060.072 97.430.004 621.242.412 385.229.414 135.485.723 97.004.633 617.719.770 380.222.967 134.342.844 96.158.348 610.724.159 2026 390.811.701 136.753.979 100.018.036 627.583.716 387.762.297 136.061.538 99.494.061 623.317.896 381.722.947 134.685.419 98.452.973 614.861.338 2027 393.895.206 137.451.424 101.311.580 632.658.210 390.311.834 136.639.799 100.691.284 627.642.918 383.228.844 135.028.867 99.460.453 617.718.163 2028 397.003.039 138.152.426 102.606.068 637.761.533 392.878.134 137.220.519 101.887.224 631.985.877 384.740.681 135.373.190 100.462.745 620.576.616 2029 400.135.393 138.857.004 103.899.612 642.892.008 395.461.308 137.803.706 103.080.007 636.345.021 386.258.483 135.718.392 101.458.019 623.434.894 2030 403.292.461 139.565.174 105.194.099 648.051.735 398.061.466 138.389.371 104.271.511 640.722.349 387.782.273 136.064.474 102.448.150 626.294.897 2031 406.474.439 140.276.957 106.487.643 653.239.039 400.678.720 138.977.526 105.459.866 645.116.113 389.312.074 136.411.438 103.431.318 629.154.830 2032 409.681.522 140.992.369 106.487.643 657.161.534 403.313.183 139.568.181 105.459.866 648.341.230 390.847.910 136.759.287 103.431.318 631.038.515 2033 412.913.909 141.711.430 106.487.643 661.112.983 405.964.967 140.161.346 105.459.866 651.586.179 392.389.805 137.108.023 103.431.318 632.929.146 2034 416.171.800 142.434.159 106.487.643 665.093.602 408.634.187 140.757.031 105.459.866 654.851.084 393.937.783 137.457.649 103.431.318 634.826.750 2035 419.455.395 143.160.573 106.487.643 669.103.612 411.320.957 141.355.249 105.459.866 658.136.071 395.491.868 137.808.166 103.431.318 636.731.351 2036 422.764.898 143.890.692 106.487.643 673.143.234 414.025.392 141.956.008 105.459.866 661.441.266 397.052.083 138.159.577 103.431.318 638.642.977 2037 426.100.513 144.624.534 106.487.643 677.212.691 416.747.609 142.559.321 105.459.866 664.766.796 398.618.453 138.511.884 103.431.318 640.561.655 2038 429.462.446 145.362.119 106.487.643 681.312.209 419.487.724 143.165.199 105.459.866 668.112.789 400.191.003 138.865.089 103.431.318 642.487.410 2039 432.850.905 146.103.466 106.487.643 685.442.015 422.245.856 143.773.651 105.459.866 671.479.373 401.769.757 139.219.195 103.431.318 644.420.269 2040 436.266.099 146.848.594 106.487.643 689.602.336 425.022.123 144.384.689 105.459.866 674.866.677 403.354.738 139.574.204 103.431.318 646.360.260 2041 439.708.238 147.597.522 106.487.643 693.793.403 427.816.643 144.998.324 105.459.866 678.274.833 404.945.973 139.930.118 103.431.318 648.307.409 2042 443.177.536 148.350.269 106.487.643 698.015.449 430.629.537 145.614.567 105.459.866 681.703.970 406.543.485 140.286.940 103.431.318 650.261.742 2043 446.674.207 149.106.856 106.487.643 702.268.706 433.460.927 146.233.428 105.459.866 685.154.221 408.147.299 140.644.672 103.431.318 652.223.288 2044 450.198.467 149.867.300 106.487.643 706.553.410 436.310.932 146.854.920 105.459.866 688.625.719 409.757.440 141.003.315 103.431.318 654.192.073 2045 453.750.532 150.631.624 106.487.643 710.869.800 439.179.677 147.479.054 105.459.866 692.118.597 411.373.933 141.362.874 103.431.318 656.168.125 Σύµπραξη ΣΥΣTEMA Μελετητική ΕΠΕ Αλίκη Τσαρούχη 11
Year Private Vehicle - Taxi Business As Usual sub-scenario: annual GDP growth 2021-2046 = 3,0% Bus Metro Total Private Vehicle - Taxi Realistic sub-scenario: annual GDP growth 2021-2046 = 2,5% Bus Metro Total Private Vehicle - Taxi Pessimistic sub-scenario: annual GDP growth 2021-2046 =1,5% Bus Metro Total 2046 457.330.624 151.399.845 106.487.643 715.218.113 442.067.283 148.105.840 105.459.866 695.632.989 412.996.803 141.723.349 103.431.318 658.151.470 Σύµπραξη ΣΥΣTEMA Μελετητική ΕΠΕ Αλίκη Τσαρούχη 12
3. Estimation of revenues The revenues induced by the Thessaloniki Metro (base project) to the operator include the following categories: Ticket revenues, generated by the estimated demand Commercial revenues from advertisements, optical fibers, renting some of the systems stations etc Revenues generated by the use of the parking facilities Annual ticket revenues are calculated as the product of annual demand and the average charge for the use of the metro system. The estimation of the average charge (as a proportion of the value of the simple ticket) is based on the data provided by the operator of the Athens Metro network (STA.SY. SA), e.g. annual revenues for the years 2006-2012 (11 months for 2012) and the corresponding number of annual passengers. It is estimated that the average charge equals 55% of the value of the simple ticket. Taking into consideration, that the value of the simple ticket for the Thessaloniki buses network is 0,80 and that the proportion of the value of the Athens metro ticket to the simple buses ticket is 1,12, the values of the simple ticket for the Thessaloniki metro equals 0,90 and the corresponding average charge is 0,49. Commercial revenues are estimated at 8,6% of the ticket revenues. The average revenue per passenger generated by the parking facilities is estimated at 0,0066 /passenger (as derived by the STA.SY. data). The projected revenues for the realistic scenario are presented in the following table. Year Table 5: Projected Revenues (realistic scenario) Demand Ticket revenues Commercial revenues Parking revenues, 2012 prices Total revenues 2017 74.354.565 36.136.318 3.027.248 490.276 39.653.842 2018 78.749.807 38.272.406 3.206.194 519.257 41.997.858 2019 81.959.017 39.832.082 3.336.853 540.418 43.709.353 2020 84.489.846 41.062.065 3.439.893 557.105 45.059.063 2021 87.001.837 42.282.893 3.542.165 573.669 46.398.726 2022 89.509.307 43.501.523 3.644.253 590.202 47.735.979 2023 92.012.260 44.717.958 3.746.158 606.706 49.070.822 2024 94.510.701 45.932.201 3.847.878 623.180 50.403.259 2025 97.004.633 47.144.252 3.949.416 639.625 51.733.292 2026 99.494.061 48.354.114 4.050.769 656.039 53.060.923 2027 100.691.284 48.935.964 4.099.513 663.934 53.699.411 2028 101.887.224 49.517.191 4.148.204 671.819 54.337.214 2029 103.080.007 50.096.883 4.196.766 679.684 54.973.334 2030 104.271.511 50.675.954 4.245.277 687.541 55.608.772 2031 105.459.866 51.253.495 4.293.659 695.377 56.242.531 2032 105.459.866 51.253.495 4.293.659 695.377 56.242.531 2033 105.459.866 51.253.495 4.293.659 695.377 56.242.531 2034 105.459.866 51.253.495 4.293.659 695.377 56.242.531 2035 105.459.866 51.253.495 4.293.659 695.377 56.242.531 2036 105.459.866 51.253.495 4.293.659 695.377 56.242.531 2037 105.459.866 51.253.495 4.293.659 695.377 56.242.531 Σύµπραξη ΣΥΣTEMA Μελετητική ΕΠΕ Αλίκη Τσαρούχη 13
του έργου Μετρό Θεσσαλονίκης Year Demand Ticket revenues Commercial revenues Parking revenues Total revenues 2038 105.459.866 51.253.495 4.293.659 695.377 56.242.531 2039 105.459.866 51.253.495 4.293.659 695.377 56.242.531 2040 105.459.866 51.253.495 4.293.659 695.377 56.242.531 2041 105.459.866 51.253.495 4.293.659 695.377 56.242.531 2042 105.459.866 51.253.495 4.293.659 695.377 56.242.531 2043 105.459.866 51.253.495 4.293.659 695.377 56.242.531 2044 105.459.866 51.253.495 4.293.659 695.377 56.242.531 2045 105.459.866 51.253.495 4.293.659 695.377 56.242.531 2046 105.459.866 51.253.495 4.293.659 695.377 56.242.531 4. Maintenance and operating costs The estimation of the maintenance and operating costs for the Thessaloniki metro is based on the data provided by STA.SY for the Athens Metro and on former CBA s for Thessaloniki and Athens Metro networks. It is estimated that 201.784 annual rides will be performed (to both directions), or 7.748.506 vehiclekilometers (the route will be 9,6km long and each train will have 4 cars). The assumptions for the personnel costs during the time horizon of the analysis are summed as follows: The average annual personnel cost by personnel category (e.g. average cost per employee) is considered reduced to 75% of the corresponding cost for 2012. This reduction reflects the reductions proposed (and implemented) for the civil servants by the fiscal strategy for Greece. For the same reason, the average annual personnel cost is considered unchanged for the time horizon (there will be no salary increases). The payroll costs of the maintenance personnel for the first year of operation will be decreased by 50%, for the second year by 10% and for the third year by 5%, because the first year s maintenance is included in the construction contract. The number of employees is considered unchanged during the time horizon of the analysis. The estimation of the total number of employees and the corresponding personnel cost (in 2012 prices) are presented in the table below: Table 6: Number of employees and annual personnel cost for the years 2020-2046 Personnel category Number of employees Total cost Train attendants 70 2.191.992,46 Maintenance personnel 100 2.181.269,23 Stations personnel 101 2.830.898,57 Other personnel 100 3.411.125,85 Personnel of the Operational Center 19 605.957,88 Total 390 11.221.243,99, 2012 prices Σύµπραξη ΣΥΣTEMA Μελετητική ΕΠΕ Αλίκη Τσαρούχη 14
του έργου Μετρό Θεσσαλονίκης The total energy cost (electricity) is divided into two sub-categories: traction current cost and other electricity costs (e.g. for the stations, the depot etc). The traction current cost component for the first year of operation (2017) of the project is estimated at 1.517.846,08 (2012 prices) and it is calculated as the product of the unit cost (0,196 /vehiclekilometer) and the annual number of performed vehicle kilometers. The rest of the electricity costs are estimated as 81% of the traction current cost and they are 1.224.753,21 for the first year of operation. Attiko Metro and the operator will constantly seek ways to cut energy costs, therefore it is considered that the corresponding expenditures will not increase during the time horizon of the analysis. The average unit cost for spare parts includes the cost for spare parts for the superstructure, for the rolling stock and for ticket issuing and collection equipment. The two former cost categories depend on the vehicle kilometers performed. The total cost for spare parts for the first year after the maintenance period included in the construction contract is 139.352,68. The cleaning, guarding and maintenance of elevators and escalators cost for 2017 is estimated at 4.233.445,15. Its estimation is based on the data provided by STA.SY. SA and they are decreasing annually by 1,0%. Other operating costs include insurance costs, advertising and promotion costs and other expenses (consumables supply, stationery, watering, telecommunications etc). The average unit insurance cost is estimated at 0,00281 /passenger (2012 prices). The advertising and promotion costs are decreasing year by year according to public awareness and the metro rate of usage. All other expenses depend on the number of employees and the average unit cost/employee is 2.239,34 (2012 prices). Base on the aforementioned assumptions the maintenance and operating costs for the Thessaloniki Metro are presented in the following table. Σύµπραξη ΣΥΣTEMA Μελετητική ΕΠΕ Αλίκη Τσαρούχη 15
Year Personnel cost Traction current Table 7: Maintenance and operating cost for Thessaloniki Metro Electricity Other electricity Spare parts Station maintenance Insurance costs Other expenses, 2012 prices Promotion Total costs 2017 9.805.794,70 1.517.846,08 1.224.753,21 69.676,34 4.233.445,15 209.260,09 742.131,50 240.000,00 18.060.821,80 2018 10.938.154,13 1.517.846,08 1.224.753,21 125.417,41 4.275.779,60 221.629,85 818.269,13 168.000,00 19.322.095,94 2019 11.079.699,06 1.517.846,08 1.224.753,21 132.385,04 4.318.537,39 230.661,71 827.786,33 120.000,00 19.485.706,83 2020 11.221.243,99 1.517.846,08 1.224.753,21 139.352,68 4.361.722,77 237.784,36 837.303,54 24.000,00 19.599.836,09 2021 11.221.243,99 1.517.846,08 1.224.753,21 139.352,68 4.405.339,99 244.853,99 837.303,54 24.000,00 19.650.522,95 2022 11.221.243,99 1.517.846,08 1.224.753,21 139.352,68 4.449.393,39 251.910,90 837.303,54 24.000,00 19.701.633,26 2023 11.221.243,99 1.517.846,08 1.224.753,21 139.352,68 4.493.887,33 258.955,10 837.303,54 24.000,00 19.753.171,39 2024 11.221.243,99 1.517.846,08 1.224.753,21 139.352,68 4.538.826,20 265.986,59 837.303,54 24.000,00 19.805.141,76 2025 11.221.243,99 1.517.846,08 1.224.753,21 139.352,68 4.584.214,46 273.005,40 837.303,54 24.000,00 19.857.548,83 2026 11.221.243,99 1.517.846,08 1.224.753,21 139.352,68 4.630.056,61 280.011,53 837.303,54 24.000,00 19.910.397,11 2027 11.221.243,99 1.517.846,08 1.224.753,21 139.352,68 4.676.357,17 283.380,94 837.303,54 24.000,00 19.960.067,08 2028 11.221.243,99 1.517.846,08 1.224.753,21 139.352,68 4.723.120,75 286.746,74 837.303,54 24.000,00 20.010.196,45 2029 11.221.243,99 1.517.846,08 1.224.753,21 139.352,68 4.770.351,95 290.103,66 837.303,54 24.000,00 20.060.784,57 2030 11.221.243,99 1.517.846,08 1.224.753,21 139.352,68 4.818.055,47 293.456,97 837.303,54 24.000,00 20.111.841,41 2031 11.221.243,99 1.517.846,08 1.224.753,21 139.352,68 4.866.236,03 296.801,42 837.303,54 24.000,00 20.163.366,42 2032 11.221.243,99 1.517.846,08 1.224.753,21 139.352,68 4.914.898,39 296.801,42 837.303,54 24.000,00 20.212.028,78 2033 11.221.243,99 1.517.846,08 1.224.753,21 139.352,68 4.964.047,37 296.801,42 837.303,54 24.000,00 20.261.177,76 2034 11.221.243,99 1.517.846,08 1.224.753,21 139.352,68 5.013.687,85 296.801,42 837.303,54 24.000,00 20.310.818,23 2035 11.221.243,99 1.517.846,08 1.224.753,21 139.352,68 5.063.824,72 296.801,42 837.303,54 24.000,00 20.360.955,11 2036 11.221.243,99 1.517.846,08 1.224.753,21 139.352,68 5.114.462,97 296.801,42 837.303,54 24.000,00 20.411.593,36 2037 11.221.243,99 1.517.846,08 1.224.753,21 139.352,68 5.165.607,60 296.801,42 837.303,54 24.000,00 20.462.737,99 2038 11.221.243,99 1.517.846,08 1.224.753,21 139.352,68 5.217.263,68 296.801,42 837.303,54 24.000,00 20.514.394,06 Σύµπραξη ΣΥΣTEMA Μελετητική ΕΠΕ Αλίκη Τσαρούχη 16
Year Personnel cost Traction current Electricity Other electricity Spare parts Station maintenance Insurance costs Other expenses Promotion Total costs 2039 11.221.243,99 1.517.846,08 1.224.753,21 139.352,68 5.269.436,31 296.801,42 837.303,54 24.000,00 20.566.566,70 2040 11.221.243,99 1.517.846,08 1.224.753,21 139.352,68 5.322.130,68 296.801,42 837.303,54 24.000,00 20.619.261,06 2041 11.221.243,99 1.517.846,08 1.224.753,21 139.352,68 5.375.351,98 296.801,42 837.303,54 24.000,00 20.672.482,37 2042 11.221.243,99 1.517.846,08 1.224.753,21 139.352,68 5.429.105,50 296.801,42 837.303,54 24.000,00 20.726.235,89 2043 11.221.243,99 1.517.846,08 1.224.753,21 139.352,68 5.483.396,56 296.801,42 837.303,54 24.000,00 20.780.526,95 2044 11.221.243,99 1.517.846,08 1.224.753,21 139.352,68 5.538.230,52 296.801,42 837.303,54 24.000,00 20.835.360,91 2045 11.221.243,99 1.517.846,08 1.224.753,21 139.352,68 5.593.612,83 296.801,42 837.303,54 24.000,00 20.890.743,22 2046 11.221.243,99 1.517.846,08 1.224.753,21 139.352,68 5.649.548,96 296.801,42 837.303,54 24.000,00 20.946.679,35 Σύµπραξη ΣΥΣTEMA Μελετητική ΕΠΕ Αλίκη Τσαρούχη 17
5. Financial analysis and indicators Union Assistance The methodology and assumptions for the financial analysis are summed as follows: The construction of the project will be completed by the end of 2016. Therefore, the first year of operations is 2017. The time horizon expands to 2046, in order to include 30 years of full operation of the project. Base year is 2012. The financial analysis is conducted in constant (real) 2012 prices (which were converted from current prices by using Greek CPI index for the past years and the October 2012 Midterm framework for fiscal strategy projections for the next years until 2016). All financial cash flows were discounted with a 5,0% discount rate (according to the EU CBA Guide and WD 4 guidelines). All financial cash flows before 2010 (first year of the analysis) are also discounted with 5,0% discount rate and accrued on the first year (2010). The investment cost includes the all costs regardless of the programming period and of the source of finance. The VAT component is not eligible because it is recovered by the beneficiary (Attiko Metro SA). The financial flows do not include VAT. The principal results of the financial analysis for the realistic sub-scenario are summed as follows. The financial analysis itself is presented in Table 9 at the end of this chapter. FNPV @ (5%)= -892.896.040 B/C @ (5%)= 0,42 FNPV @ (6%)= -941.660.096 B/C @ (6%)= 0,36 FNPV @ (4%)= -825.146.984 B/C @ (4%)= 0,48 IRR= -0,55% R/C @ (5%)= 31,43% FG @ (5%)= 68,57% As it is depicted by these results, the project needs to be co-financed for all possible discount rates, since its FNPV less than zero and the B/C is less than one. Based on the analysis of the investment cost in eligible and non eligible expenditure, the calculation of the Union Assistance is as follows: Table 8: Calculation of Union Assistance Value 1. Eligible cost (in euro, not discounted) = [ΕC] 457.973.113 2. Financing Gap = [FGR] 68,57% 3. Decision amount [DA] = [FGR] * [ΕC] 314.046.054 4. Co-financing rate of the priority axis (%) 85% 5. Union assistance (Euros)= (3)*(4) 266.939.146 The appraisal of the financial return on national capital (which produces the FNPV(K) and FRR(K) indicators) takes into account all sources of financing except for the EU contribution, in order to estimate the profitability of the investment after the EU contribution. As the results of Table 10 at the end of this chapter depict, the investment is far from profitable after the EU contribution, since the FNPV(K) = -738.710.863 and the FRR(K)= -1,60%. Σύµπραξη ΣΥΣTEMA Μελετητική ΕΠΕ Αλίκη Τσαρούχη 18
The financial sustainability of the project regards the ability of the project to produce enough annual revenues to cover annual expenses, in order not to run out of cash in the future. In the financial sustainability table the inflows include revenues and the financial resources (loans and public national and EU- funding) and the outflows include investment cost, operating and maintenance cost and loans reimbursement. As the financial sustainability table depicts (Table 11 at the end of this chapter), the cumulated cash flows of the investment, from 2007 and onwards are positive, which means that the project is financially sustainable. Σύµπραξη ΣΥΣTEMA Μελετητική ΕΠΕ Αλίκη Τσαρούχη 19
Year Investment Cost Table 9: Financial analysis for the realistic sub-scenario Outflows Inflows Maintenance and operation cost Revenues Residual Value Euros, 2012 Total outflows Total inflows Net cash flows 2010 234.460.055 21.666.721 0 0 0 256.126.775 0 2011 49.725.875 17.607.434 0 0 0 67.333.309 0 2012 35.298.960 17.347.000 0 0 0 52.645.960 0 2013 70.222.094 26.492.560 0 0 0 96.714.653 0 2014 83.569.859 26.282.301 0 0 0 109.852.160 0 2015 113.305.836 26.073.711 0 0 0 139.379.548 0 2016 138.675.661 25.841.141 0 0 0 164.516.802 0 2017 0 25.559.981 18.060.822 39.653.842 0 43.620.803 39.653.842 2018 0 27.594.111 19.322.096 41.997.858 0 46.916.207 41.997.858 2019 0 29.292.776 19.485.707 43.709.353 0 48.778.483 43.709.353 2020 0 37.635.960 19.599.836 45.059.063 0 57.235.797 45.059.063 2021 0 40.726.287 19.650.523 46.398.726 0 60.376.810 46.398.726 2022 0 39.166.149 19.701.633 47.735.979 0 58.867.782 47.735.979 2023 0 48.216.823 19.753.171 49.070.822 0 67.969.994 49.070.822 2024 0 45.921.614 19.805.142 50.403.259 0 65.726.756 50.403.259 2025 0 43.709.683 19.857.549 51.733.292 0 63.567.232 51.733.292 2026 0 41.578.334 19.910.397 53.060.923 0 61.488.731 53.060.923 2027 0 39.524.950 19.960.067 53.699.411 0 59.485.017 53.699.411 2028 0 37.546.998 20.010.196 54.337.214 0 57.557.194 54.337.214 2029 0 35.642.018 20.060.785 54.973.334 0 55.702.802 54.973.334 2030 0 33.807.627 20.111.841 55.608.772 0 53.919.469 55.608.772 2031 0 32.041.517 20.163.366 56.242.531 0 52.204.883 56.242.531 2032 0 30.341.446 20.212.029 56.242.531 0 50.553.475 56.242.531 2033 0 28.705.245 20.261.178 56.242.531 0 48.966.423 56.242.531 2034 0 27.130.809 20.310.818 56.242.531 0 47.441.627 56.242.531 2035 0 25.616.098 20.360.955 56.242.531 0 45.977.053 56.242.531 Σύµπραξη ΣΥΣTEMA Μελετητική ΕΠΕ Αλίκη Τσαρούχη 20
Year Investment Cost Outflows Inflows Maintenance and operation cost Revenues Residual Value Total outflows Total inflows Net cash flows 2036 0 24.159.136 20.411.593 56.242.531 0 44.570.729 56.242.531 2037 0 22.758.006 20.462.738 56.242.531 0 43.220.744 56.242.531 2038 0 19.927.807 20.514.394 56.242.531 0 40.442.201 56.242.531 2039 0 17.323.503 20.566.567 56.242.531 0 37.890.069 56.242.531 2040 0 10.664.823 20.619.261 56.242.531 0 31.284.084 56.242.531 2041 0 7.336.815 20.672.482 56.242.531 0 28.009.297 56.242.531 2042 0 6.906.420 20.726.236 56.242.531 0 27.632.656 56.242.531 2043 0 0 20.780.527 56.242.531 0 20.780.527 56.242.531 2044 0 0 20.835.361 56.242.531 0 20.835.361 56.242.531 2045 0 0 20.890.743 56.242.531 0 20.890.743 56.242.531 2046 0 0 20.946.679 56.242.531 302.910.426 20.946.679 359.152.957 Total 725.258.340 940.145.802 604.024.694 1.587.322.342 302.910.426 2.269.428.836 1.890.232.768 NPV of Discounted Cash flows 5,0% 1.302.109.594 228.364.223 585.278.045 52.299.731 1.530.473.816 637.577.776-892.896.040 6,0% 1.277.478.967 192.765.083 491.404.494 37.179.460 1.470.244.050 528.583.954-941.660.096 4,0% 1.328.813.773 272.659.377 702.516.370 73.809.796 1.601.473.150 776.326.167-825.146.984 Financial indicators R/C @ (5%)= 31,43% FG @ (5%)= 68,57% NPV @ (5%)= -892.896.040 B/C @ (5%)= 0,42 R/C @ (6%)= 26,29% FG @ (6%)= 73,71% NPV @ (6%)= -941.660.096 B/C @ (6%)= 0,36 R/C @ (4%)= 37,90% FG @ (4%)= 62,10% NPV @ (4%)= -825.146.984 B/C @ (4%)= 0,48 FIRR= -0,55% Σύµπραξη ΣΥΣTEMA Μελετητική ΕΠΕ Αλίκη Τσαρούχη 21
Year Investment cost (national capital) Table 10: Financial return on national capital Outflows Inflows EIB Loan reimbursement (interest & capital) Operation & maintenance cost Revenues Residual value Total Outflows, 2012 Total inflows Net cash flows 2010 235.278.892 133.132.287 0 0 0 368.411.179 0-368.411.179 2011 50.624.657 24.098.290 0 0 0 74.722.947 0-74.722.947 2012 36.814.159 23.741.849 0 0 0 60.556.008 0-60.556.008 2013 75.582.489 23.553.422 0 0 0 99.135.911 0-99.135.911 2014 138.342.415 23.366.490 0 0 0 161.708.905 0-161.708.905 2015 207.094.214 23.181.041 0 0 0 230.275.255 0-230.275.255 2016 314.085.377 53.663.924 0 0 0 367.749.302 0-367.749.302 2017 0 51.943.828 13.801.594 39.653.842 0 65.745.422 39.653.842-26.091.580 2018 0 50.155.590 10.495.891 41.997.858 0 60.651.481 41.997.858-18.653.624 2019 0 48.214.313 10.635.287 43.709.353 0 58.849.600 43.709.353-15.140.247 2020 0 46.278.417 19.115.547 45.059.063 0 65.393.964 45.059.063-20.334.901 2021 0 44.352.338 19.166.234 46.398.726 0 63.518.572 46.398.726-17.119.846 2022 0 42.440.348 19.217.345 47.735.979 0 61.657.692 47.735.979-13.921.713 2023 0 40.506.860 19.268.883 49.070.822 0 59.775.743 49.070.822-10.704.920 2024 0 38.523.864 19.320.853 50.403.259 0 57.844.717 50.403.259-7.441.458 2025 0 36.613.503 19.373.260 51.733.292 0 55.986.763 51.733.292-4.253.471 2026 0 34.773.413 19.426.108 53.060.923 0 54.199.522 53.060.923-1.138.599 2027 0 33.001.303 19.475.778 53.699.411 0 52.477.081 53.699.411 1.222.329 2028 0 31.294.951 19.525.908 54.337.214 0 50.820.859 54.337.214 3.516.355 2029 0 29.652.204 19.576.496 54.973.334 0 49.228.700 54.973.334 5.744.635 2030 0 28.070.973 19.627.553 55.608.772 0 47.698.526 55.608.772 7.910.246 2031 0 26.549.237 19.679.078 56.242.531 0 46.228.315 56.242.531 10.014.216 2032 0 25.085.032 19.727.740 56.242.531 0 44.812.773 56.242.531 11.429.758 2033 0 23.676.459 19.776.889 56.242.531 0 43.453.348 56.242.531 12.789.183 Σύµπραξη ΣΥΣTEMA Μελετητική ΕΠΕ Αλίκη Τσαρούχη 22
Year Investment cost (national capital) Outflows Inflows EIB Loan reimbursement (interest & capital) Operation & maintenance cost Revenues Residual value Total Outflows Total inflows Net cash flows 2034 0 22.321.674 19.826.530 56.242.531 0 42.148.203 56.242.531 14.094.328 2035 0 21.018.890 19.876.666 56.242.531 0 40.895.557 56.242.531 15.346.974 2036 0 0 19.927.305 56.242.531 0 19.927.305 56.242.531 36.315.226 2037 0 0 19.978.449 56.242.531 0 19.978.449 56.242.531 36.264.081 2038 0 0 20.030.105 56.242.531 0 20.030.105 56.242.531 36.212.425 2039 0 0 20.082.278 56.242.531 0 20.082.278 56.242.531 36.160.253 2040 0 0 20.134.972 56.242.531 0 20.134.972 56.242.531 36.107.558 2041 0 0 20.188.194 56.242.531 0 20.188.194 56.242.531 36.054.337 2042 0 0 20.241.947 56.242.531 0 20.241.947 56.242.531 36.000.584 2043 0 0 20.296.238 56.242.531 0 20.296.238 56.242.531 35.946.292 2044 0 0 20.351.072 56.242.531 0 20.351.072 56.242.531 35.891.459 2045 0 0 20.406.455 56.242.531 0 20.406.455 56.242.531 35.836.076 2046 0 0 20.462.391 56.242.531 302.910.426 20.462.391 359.152.957 338.690.566 Total 1.057.822.204 979.210.501 569.013.047 1.587.322.342 302.910.426 2.606.045.751 1.890.232.768-715.812.983 NPV of discounted cash flows 5,0% 662.537.978 485.386.438 228.364.223 585.278.045 52.299.731 1.376.288.639 637.577.776-738.710.863 Financial indicators FNPV(K) @ (5%)= -738.710.863 B/C @ (5%)= 0,46 FIRR(Κ)= -1,60% Σύµπραξη ΣΥΣTEMA Μελετητική ΕΠΕ Αλίκη Τσαρούχη 23
Year Investment cost Outflows Inflows Loan reimburse ment Operation & maintenance cost Table 11: Financial Sustainability Revenues Public funds EIB Loan drawdown Total outflows Total inflows, Current prices Net cash flows Cumulated net cash flows 2003 202.972 0 0 0 0 0 202.972 0-202.972-202.972 2004 523.888 0 0 0 0 0 523.888 0-523.888-726.859 2005 568.535 0 0 0 0 0 568.535 0-568.535-1.295.395 2006 54.022.145 0 0 0 55.000.000 0 54.022.145 55.000.000 977.855-317.540 2007 91.631.673 0 0 0 37.300.000 100.000.000 91.631.673 137.300.000 45.668.327 45.350.787 2008 52.664.718 2.335.500 0 0 28.000.000 0 55.000.218 28.000.000-27.000.218 18.350.569 2009 59.806.376 4.671.000 0 0 11.900.000 100.000.000 64.477.376 111.900.000 47.422.624 65.773.194 2010 85.998.072 13.292.000 0 0 59.348.765 200.000.000 99.290.072 259.348.765 160.058.693 225.831.886 2011 86.663.051 17.347.000 0 0 54.800.000 0 104.010.051 54.800.000-49.210.051 176.621.835 2012 67.340.600 17.347.000 0 0 140.877.594 0 84.687.600 140.877.594 56.189.994 232.811.829 2013 143.991.281 26.704.500 0 0 145.000.000 250.000.000 170.695.781 395.000.000 224.304.219 457.116.048 2014 157.791.396 26.704.500 0 0 145.000.000 0 184.495.896 145.000.000-39.495.896 417.620.151 2015 204.546.755 26.704.500 0 0 145.000.000 0 231.251.255 145.000.000-86.251.255 331.368.896 2016 262.848.538 26.704.500 0 0 150.700.000 0 289.553.038 150.700.000-138.853.038 192.515.859 2017 0 26.704.500 18.869.545 41.429.452 150.000.000 0 45.574.045 191.429.452 145.855.407 338.371.266 2018 0 29.204.500 20.449.731 44.448.847 145.673.641 0 49.654.231 190.122.488 140.468.258 478.839.524 2019 0 31.529.338 20.973.479 47.046.649 0 52.502.817 47.046.649-5.456.168 473.383.356 2020 0 41.238.713 21.476.056 49.372.401 0 62.714.769 49.372.401-13.342.367 460.040.989 2021 0 45.472.738 21.940.696 51.806.272 0 67.413.433 51.806.272-15.607.161 444.433.827 2022 0 44.605.388 22.437.718 54.365.362 0 67.043.105 54.365.362-12.677.743 431.756.084 2023 0 56.121.069 22.991.334 57.115.066 0 79.112.403 57.115.066-21.997.337 409.758.747 2024 0 54.785.844 23.628.120 60.132.579 0 78.413.964 60.132.579-18.281.384 391.477.363 2025 0 53.450.619 24.282.909 63.262.331 0 77.733.528 63.262.331-14.471.197 377.006.166 2026 0 52.115.394 24.956.223 66.507.977 0 77.071.617 66.507.977-10.563.640 366.442.526 2027 0 50.780.169 25.643.943 68.990.982 0 76.424.112 68.990.982-7.433.130 359.009.396 Σύµπραξη ΣΥΣTEMA Μελετητική ΕΠΕ Αλίκη Τσαρούχη 24
Year Investment cost Outflows Inflows Loan reimburse ment Operation & maintenance cost Revenues Public funds EIB Loan drawdown Total outflows Total inflows Net cash flows Cumulated net cash flows 2028 0 49.444.944 26.351.056 71.555.668 0 75.796.000 71.555.668-4.240.332 354.769.065 2029 0 48.109.719 27.078.117 74.203.197 0 75.187.835 74.203.197-984.638 353.784.427 2030 0 46.774.494 27.825.709 76.937.436 0 74.600.203 76.937.436 2.337.234 356.121.660 2031 0 45.439.269 28.594.421 79.759.629 0 74.033.690 79.759.629 5.725.939 361.847.599 2032 0 44.104.044 29.380.017 81.753.619 0 73.484.061 81.753.619 8.269.559 370.117.157 2033 0 42.768.819 30.187.746 83.797.460 0 72.956.565 83.797.460 10.840.895 380.958.053 2034 0 41.433.594 31.018.249 85.892.396 0 72.451.843 85.892.396 13.440.553 394.398.606 2035 0 40.098.369 31.872.188 88.039.706 0 71.970.557 88.039.706 16.069.150 410.467.756 2036 0 38.763.144 32.750.241 90.240.699 0 71.513.385 90.240.699 18.727.314 429.195.070 2037 0 37.427.919 33.653.110 92.496.716 0 71.081.029 92.496.716 21.415.688 450.610.757 2038 0 33.592.694 34.581.515 94.809.134 0 68.174.209 94.809.134 26.634.925 477.245.683 2039 0 29.932.631 35.536.200 97.179.363 0 65.468.832 97.179.363 31.710.531 508.956.214 2040 0 18.888.031 36.517.930 99.608.847 0 55.405.962 99.608.847 44.202.885 553.159.099 2041 0 13.318.781 37.527.493 102.099.068 0 50.846.274 102.099.068 51.252.794 604.411.893 2042 0 12.850.906 38.565.701 104.651.545 0 51.416.607 104.651.545 53.234.938 657.646.831 2043 0 0 39.633.389 107.267.833 0 39.633.389 107.267.833 67.634.444 725.281.275 2044 0 0 40.731.420 109.949.529 0 40.731.420 109.949.529 69.218.110 794.499.384 2045 0 0 41.860.680 112.698.267 0 41.860.680 112.698.267 70.837.588 865.336.972 2046 0 0 43.022.083 115.515.724 0 43.022.083 115.515.724 72.493.641 937.830.613 Total 1.268.600.000 1.190.766. 125 894.337.020 2.372.933.758 1.268.600.000 650.000.000 3.353.703.145 4.291.533.758 937.830.613 Σύµπραξη ΣΥΣTEMA Μελετητική ΕΠΕ Αλίκη Τσαρούχη 25
6. Sensitivity and risk analysis Sensitivity analysis includes the examination of the variation of the financial indicators (mostly FNPV) according to variations of the variables that affect it. Critical variables are considered those that their variation by ±1% results in variations of FNPV of at least ±1%, provided that the project will lose its need for co-financing if these variables change in a realistic manner. The variables examined in this CBA are: The annual rate of change in demand The average charge (proportion of the value of the nominal (simple) ticket) The remaining investment cost (for the years 2013-2016) The personnel cost (as a component of the maintenance and operation cost) None of the examined variables is considered to be critical, because there is none variation that causes an equal or bigger variation to the FNPV. However, it is examined which is the variation in demand, in the average charge and in the remaining investment cost that causes the FIRR to approximate the discount rate (5%) there isn t any variation that causes a positive FNPV. The results of this examination (that are presented in the following table) show that there isn t any realistic variation of these variables that produces an advantageous FIRR (e.g. the project will never be profitable). As the following table depicts, a FIRR that approximates the discount rate of the analysis is caused if: The annual rate of change in demand of the realistic scenario increases by 400% (in an annual basis). This increase causes the average annual rate of change in demand to equal 20% between 2017-2031, which is highly impracticable. In a case like this, the demand from 2031 and onwards would rise to 347.021.965 passengers. The average charge increases by 250%. In this case its value would be 1,22, which means that the simple ticket would rise to 2,25 from 2017, which is even more expensive than the simple ticket of Athens. This assumption is also highly unrealistic. The remaining investment cost decreases to 70%, which is also unrealistic. Because none of the aforementioned changes is realistic and due to lack of historical evidence, to estimate the probability of the appearance of these variations, risk analysis has no practical use for this CBA and therefore it hasn t been conducted. The results of the sensitivity analysis for the realistic scenario are as follows: 1 Table 12: Results of the sensitivity analysis (realistic scenario) a/a Variable Variation Annual rate of change in demand 2 Average charge FNPV (5% discount rate) Variation of FNPV FIRR +1% annually -890.978.806-0,21% -0,53% 68,43% 0% -892.896.040 0,00% -0,55% 68,57% -1% annually -894.807.113 0,21% -0,57% 68,72% +400% annually 65.524.163 5,46% -5,03% +1% -887.115.623-0,65% -0,50% 68,13% 0% -892.896.040 0,00% -0,55% 68,57% -1% -898.676.458 0,65% -0,61% 69,02% 250% -25.833.444 5,08% 1,98% FG Σύµπραξη ΣΥΣTEMA Μελετητική ΕΠΕ Αλίκη Τσαρούχη 26