Global excess liquidity and asset prices in emerging countries: a pvar approach Sophie Brana, Marie-Louise Djibenou, Stéphanie Prat To cite this version: Sophie Brana, Marie-Louise Djibenou, Stéphanie Prat. Global excess liquidity and asset prices in emerging countries: a pvar approach. CR12/EFI03. 2012. <hal-00740102> HAL Id: hal-00740102 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00740102 Submitted on 9 Oct 2012 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access archive for the deposit and dissemination of scientific research documents, whether they are published or not. The documents may come from teaching and research institutions in France or abroad, or from public or private research centers. L archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, émanant des établissements d enseignement et de recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires publics ou privés.
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1. Introduction... 7 2. Measures of global excess liquidity... 10 3. The impact of global excess liquidity on emerging economies... 18 4. Empirical analysis... 20 5. Conclusion... 25... 27 3
Table 1. Variance decompositions: percent of variation of the row variable explained by the excess liquidity variable... 23 4
Figure 1 Global liquidity indicators (% GDP)... 14 Figure 2. Global excess liquidity indicators... 16 Figure 3: Impulse responses to a liquidity shock (moy)... 22 Figure 3: Impulse responses to a liquidity shock (elim0)... 24 5
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World monetary base (%GDP) 25 20 15 10 5 janv-90 janv-91 janv-92 janv-93 janv-94 janv-95 janv-96 janv-97 janv-98 janv-99 janv-00 janv-01 janv-02 janv-03 janv-04 janv-05 janv-06 janv-07 janv-08 janv-09 janv-10 EAAFADFFAEE FFABDAAAF BFAAFFBCDBEBF AFEBAFDFEABAEAFBAEFBABABEBFF BEBFAAEFFEBFBFADEBDDAA BEBFAECCECAFBFEBAFFFFA EFAEFFFBBEDAFBBAEDFBAEFFF BDAAFADFFEBFBFFF FFEFAEFFFFEBFB EBFAAABCDBEBFBEBFBFBABBFBFFE BFAABCDBEBFAFBEFBBEAAADDAA BEBBEBABBCDBEBFEBBFAAEABEBFAAE FADDABCDBEBFEFDEEDFDFBAAFFB FFAAEAFAFFBABEFBFAB AA F F F B B AA BAE A E 15
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EABFB BE BFA FE BF F ABDFBA ADFA AFEBFBBDA 0.4744 (p 5) moy moy (p 95) moy 0.3548 (p 5) moy moy (p 95) moy -0.1283 1.1854 0 6 s response of gdp to moy shock (p 5) moy moy (p 95) moy -0.0060 0.0284 0 6 s response of cpi to moy shock (p 5) moy moy (p 95) moy -4.9932 0.0062 0 6 s response of crb to moy shock (p 5) moy moy (p 95) moy -0.0006 0 6 s response of stock to moy shock -0.0109 0 6 s response of house to moy shock BDAAFFBABFAABCDBEBFAABFBBFB FAFDDFFBABFEBAABFEBDFDFFA BABACDBFBFBAFFADFAABBBFABFBEFAADFA ABAFFBFFFAFBABFBAADFDFFBE 22
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