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1 ResourcesandEnvironmentintheYangtzeBasin Vol.22No.12 Dec ( ; ) : 1985~ ~ : (1985~2000 ) (2001~2010 ) 0.1/10a 0.6/10a; 1985~ /10a ; 0.75 : ; ; ; :F291.1 :A : (2013) Oke [10] IPCC ; [1] 100a Chun [11] a [12] [2] : [13] [14] [15] [3] [1617] / ; [18] [4~6] (Artificial Neural Network ANN) [7] [8] [19] [9] 1986 Rumelhart Mccleland [20] BP ANN : ; : : (PAPD) ; ( ) : (1987~ liuxin 0817@126.com. ).

1544 22 (1) [21] BP 2000 2001 2002 30a 1 1.1 5 ( 1)1985~2007 K= ( 2007 槡 i+ j+a(a [110] ) 2007 ) #$!

2 (1) [21] BP a ( 1)1985~2007 K= ( 2007 槡 i+ j+a(a [110] ) 2007 ) #$!" %& # () N km Landsat 1985~2002 (2)BP BP [23] 1~5 :1 ;2 ;3 ;4 ; i j k ωki i k ωjk j k 1!"1 Fig.1 DistributionofMeteorologicalStations inthestudyarea #$%& 1.2 5! jk ! ki I k j % ( )*( %&( [22] 4 2 BP Fig.2 StructureofBP NeuralNetwork BP : 0.1; Logsig Purelin

3 12 : 1545 ; : Y ij = xij max(x j ) i=1 2 25;j=12 6 (6) (3) Z i = n j=1 Yij K ij n =12 6 (7) BP :x ij i j ;Y ij i j ;x j j ; Z i i ;K ij i j [24] r ij = p k=1 ωki (1-e -x )/(1+e -x ) (1) x=ωjk (2) R ij = 1-e-y 1+e -y (3) y=r ij (4) S ij = R ij / m i=1 Rij (5) :r ij ;i i=1 m;j j=1 2.1 n;k k=1 p;ωki i k ;ωjk j k ;R ij ; S ; (4) (6) ; (7) +-./0%(1) <=8>?(@>) ~ % ; !"#$%(& ( )*) %(&9:;) AB AB 3 Fig.3 AnnualVariationofUrbanizationIndexesinNanjing

1546 22 0.01 1991 1991 1999 ;21 4.4 10 11 kw h/a 23 10 11 kw h/a; 2000 2001 0.

5 AnnualVariationofUrbanizationComprehensive IndexinNanjing 2.2 1985~2007 ( 6a) 1985 0.81 /10a 0.

4 ; kw h/a kw h/a; ; (1991~2010) R : 29.19%; 27.38% 25.5%; 17.92% 5 Fig.5 AnnualVariationofUrbanizationComprehensive IndexinNanjing ~2007 ( 6a) /10a 0.75 /10a 1985~ /10a 0.79 /10a 4 ;2000 Fig.4 WeightofEachUrbanizationIndex 1.14 /10a 0.91 /10a ( 5) ( 6b) a ; 2000 :1985~ ~ 0.19 /10a 2010

5 12 : (a) (b)!"#$(%) 16 ) *+(%) & ( ~2007 (a) (b) Fig.6 VariationofAnnualAverageTemperature(a)andHeatIslandIntensity(b)inNanjingfrom1985to2007 ( 1) ( 7) ~ ~ Tab.1 CorelationCoeficientsofEachUrbanizationIndex andheatislandintensity 7 : ( ) *(+) y=0.35 x+0.17 R 2 = !"#$%& : (1) (2) Fig.7 RelationshipBetween HeatIslandandUrbanization ComprehensiveIndexinNanjing

6 [25] (3) 1985~ phericenvironment19737(8): /10a (4) eling (1): : [1] IPCC.ClimateChange2007:ThePhysicalScienceBasis[M]. CambridgeUnitedKingdomandNew YorkNYUSA:Cam- bridgeuniversitypress2007. [2] MOTHA RPBAIER W.Impactsofpresentandfuturecli- matechangeandclimatevariabilityonagricultureinthetem- perateregions:northamerica[j].climaticchange (1):137~164. [3]. [M]. : lutionacrossclimaticandsocietalgradients[j].frontiersin EcologyandtheEnvironment20086(5): [5] KALNAY ECAI M.Impactofurbanizationandland-use changeonclimate[j].nature (6939): [4] GRIMM N BFOSTER DGROFFMANPetal.Thechan- ginglandscape:ecosystemresponsestourbanizationandpol- [6] YANG XHOU YCHEN B.Observedsurface warming inducedbyurbanizationineastchina[j].journalofgeo- physicalresearch (d14):d gesintheregionalurbanheatislandinmetropolitanphoenix (ArizonaUSA) between 1990 and 2004 [J]. Climate Research200733(2):171. [8] YOUNG-BAES.Influenceofnewtowndevelopmentonthe urbanheatisland-thecaseofthebundangarea[j].journalof EnvironmentalSciences200517(4): [7] BRAZEL AGOBERPLEESJetal.Determinantsofchan- [9] SANTAMOURIS MPARAPONIARISKMIHALAKAKOU G. Estimatingtheecologicalfootprintoftheheatislandefect overathensgreece[j].climaticchange200780(3): [12].2006 : [M]. : [10] OKE T R.Citysizeandtheurbanheatisland[J].Atmos- [11] CHUN GCHOIJYUNJI.Urbanizationefectontheobserved changeinmeanmonthlytemperaturesbetween and inKorea[J].ClimaticChange200466(1):127- [13] ZHANG YYANGZYU X.Measurementandevaluationof interactionsincomplexurbanecosystem[j].ecologicalmod- [14] FENGSXU LD.Decisionsupportforfuzzycomprehensive evaluationofurbandevelopment[j].fuzzy Setsand Sys- tems (1):1-12. [15]. [J] (2): [16]. [J] (12): [17] CHEN MLU DZHA L.Thecomprehensiveevaluationof China surbanizationandefectsonresourcesandenvironment [J].JournalofGeographicalSciences201020(1): [18]. GIS [J] (11): [19]. [J] : [20].BP [J] : [21]. [J] (1): [22]. [J] (4): [23]. [J] (1): [24]. [J]. ( )200120(3): [25]. [J]. D : (11):

7 12 : 1549 APRELIMINARYRESEARCH OFURBANIZATIONPROCESS AND HEATISLANDEFFECTIN NANJING LIU Xin 12 LIUShou-dong 1 ZHAO Xiao-yan 1 WANG Yong-wei 1 (1.Yale-NUISTCenteronAtmosphericEnvironmentofNanjingUniversityofInformationScience & TechnologyNanjing210044China; 2.InnerMongoliaClimateCenterHohhot010051China) Abstract:Urbanizationprocesshasoutstandinginfluenceontheclimatechange.It sveryimportantto analyzetheurbanizationprocesscomprehensivelyandaccurately.theresearchesinthepastoftenuse singleindex methodsuchaspopulationtorepresenttheprocessofurbanization.buturbanizationisa comprehensiveprocesswhichcanreflectthelevelofregionaleconomicsocialandculturedevelopment.in thispaperanew method wasusedtocalculatetheurbanizationcomprehensiveevaluationindexandthe relationshipbetween urbanization processand urban heatisland was discussed.taken Nanjing asan examplefouroutstandingurbanizationindexdatafrom 1985to2010hadbeenselectedincludingurban populationpower consumptioncivil car ownership and waste gas emissions.based on the back- propaqation (BP)artificialneuralnetworksthe weightofeachindex wascalculated.combined with aggregative indicator methodthe urbanization comprehensive evaluation index presenting the comprehensiveurbanizationlevelwasbuiltandtheheatislandefectin Nanjing wasanalyzedbyanual averagetemperature( ).meanwhileinordertodiscusstherelationshipbetweenurbanization processandurbanheatislandcorrelationanalysiswasconducted.theresultsshowasfolows.(1)the weightsofevaluationindexbybpartificialneuralnetworkwereallargeespecialythecivilcarownership reached29.19%.itindicatedthat populationenergyenvironmentand otheraspects of urbanization processwereofgreatsignificancetotheurbandevelopmentlevelevaluation.thussingleindex methodis notaccurate.(2) The new methodin this paper could presentthe urbanization prcess beter.the urbanizationcomprehensiveevaluationindexhadagoodperform topresenttheurbanizationprocessof Nanjing.ItwasdividedintotwostagesinNanjing.Onewasstabledevelopmentstage ( )and anotherwasrapiddevelopmentstage ( ).Thegrowthrateofurbanizationcomprehensive evaluationindexwas0.1/10aand0.6/10arespectively.inadditiontheefectduetorapiddevelopment wasdiferentfromslowdevelopment.(3)themeanannualtemperatureshowedafluctuatedincreaseand hadsharpdistinctionbetweenurbanandsuburbantemperature.themeandistinctionwas0.3.theheat islandintensityappearedrisingtrend.thegrowthtrendpresentedobviouslyespecialyafter2000 by 0.19 /10a.(4)Thecorrelationbetweenheatislandintensityandurbanizationcomprehensiveindex was remarkable.thecorrelation coeficient was0.75 and wassignificantlyrelated atconfidencelevelof 0.05.Eachsingleindexhadhighcorrelationtotheheatislandintensity.Amongthemcivilcarownership wasofthelargestcorrelation.itindicatedthattheurbanizationhadgreatefectonthesurfacewarming especialyintheautomobileexhaustindustrialwastegasemissionsandenergyconsumptions. Keywords:urbanization;heatislandefect;BPartificialneuralnetworks;aggregativeindicatormethod

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