exchange rate exposure of companies.

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3 This paper has been prepared to enable the MNB to fulfil its monetary policy obligations and support the compilation of monetary statistics on the exchange rate exposure of companies. This paper has been prepared to enable the MNB to fulfil its monetary policy obligations and support the compilation of monetary statistics on the exchange rate exposure of companies.

8 r,

9 exchange rates m1 2006m1 m1 2008m1 2009m1 m1 2011m1 2012m1 EUR 2005 january =100 CHF,

12 # # # #

14 loan status Net exporters Net importers trade status No traders FX debt HUF debt No debt Net exporter Net Importer No trade FX debt HUF debt No debt

15 Credit Empl. Credit HUF Real VA Credit FX Inv No trade, FX Netexp, FX Netimp, FX Others No trade, FX Netexp, FX Netimp, FX Others '

17 < < <

19 ,,, ;, ' a '

20 Net exporter Net importer Non trader FX HUF none FX HUF none FX HUF none profit loss exit from to 2009 from to

21 Net exporter Net importer Non trader Net exporter Net importer Non trader FX debt HUF debt no debt

22 Net exporter Net importer Non trader Net exporter Net importer Non trader FX debt HUF debt FX debt HUF debt FX debt HUF debt Net exporter Non trader Net importer Net exporter Non trader Net importer Percentage change Share in Share in Net exporter Non trader Net exporter Non trader Net importer Net importer

23 Billion HUFs ,000 1,500 2,000 2, Net exporter Net importer Non trader FX in BoP HUF in CR FX in CR year HUF Net Exp. Net Imp. No trade year EUR Net Exp. Net Imp. No trade year CHF Net Exp. Net Imp. No trade

24 year HUF FX debt HUF debt No debt year EUR FX debt HUF debt No debt year CHF FX debt HUF debt No debt

25 number of loans m1 2006m1 m1 2008m1 2009m1 m1 2011m1 months HUF maturity CHF maturity EUR maturity +, = α +γ +β +μ +ε / α + α + >

26 + μ = = = = = ={,, } ={ } ={,, } α α

27 α α α α 1 year PD 2 year PD Export Import No Trade α α α =α

28 α

29 FX debt HUF debt FX debt HUF debt Net Exporters Non traders Net Exporters Non traders Net importers Net importers Net Exporters Non traders Net Exporters Non traders Net importers Net importers 2008 to to 2008 to to α, α, α, =α,

31 a_fx a_huf a_fx a_huf Export Import No Trade Export Import No Trade x axis is t+j x axis is t+j, j is always 1 α α α =α

34 MNB

39 m1 2006m1 2008m1 m1 2012m1 t CR Total Loans m1 2006m1 2008m1 m1 2012m1 t CR HUF short HUF loan short m1 2006m1 2008m1 m1 2012m1 t CR HUF long HUF loan long m1 2006m1 2008m1 m1 2012m1 t CR FX short FX loan short m1 2006m1 2008m1 m1 2012m1 t CR FX long FX loan long

40 Billion HUFs 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 Banks Financial inst. Spec. Saving banks HUF in CR FX in CR Billion HUFs 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8, Short Long HUF EUR CHF USD Other

41 ,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 Loan Framework contr. Accounts receivable Leasing HUF EUR CHF USD Other # #

43 Netexp, FX debt Netexp, HUF debt Netexp, no debt Netexp, FX debt Netexp, HUF debt Netexp, no debt Netimp, FX debt Netimp, HUF debt Netimp, no debt Netimp, FX debt Netimp, HUF debt Netimp, no debt No trade, FX debt No trade, HUF debt No trade, no debt No trade, FX debt No trade, HUF debt No trade, no debt Agr.,Mining Manufacturing Energy Construction Retail & Wholesale Logistics Hotels Communication Real Estate Technical services Other services Agr.,Mining Manufacturing Energy Construction Retail & Wholesale Logistics Hotels Communication Real Estate Technical services Other services Netexp, FX debt Netexp, HUF debt Netexp, no debt Netexp, FX debt Netexp, HUF debt Netexp, no debt Netimp, FX debt Netimp, HUF debt Netimp, no debt Netimp, FX debt Netimp, HUF debt Netimp, no debt No trade, FX debt No trade, HUF debt No trade, no debt No trade, FX debt No trade, HUF debt No trade, no debt Agr.,Mining Manufacturing Energy Construction Retail & Wholesale Logistics Hotels Communication Real Estate Technical services Other services Agr.,Mining Manufacturing Energy Construction Retail & Wholesale Logistics Hotels Communication Real Estate Technical services Other services

44 FX debt, net export HUF debt, net export No debt, net export FX debt, net export HUF debt, net export No debt, net export FX debt, net import HUF debt, net import No debt, net import FX debt, net import HUF debt, net import No debt, net import FX debt, no trade HUF debt, no trade No debt, no trade FX debt, no trade HUF debt, no trade No debt, no trade Net exp () Net Imp () No trade () not reported () FX debt () HUF debt () No debt () not reported ()

46 α α α >α

47 ( / ) + < < <

48 + + < < <

49 + < < <

50 + < < <

51 + < < <

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