! "##!!$%$&'(&) "&$## $%& '!($( +,' *- $ + $.$ $ $ / /
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- Χρυσάνθη Δασκαλόπουλος
- 8 χρόνια πριν
- Προβολές:
Transcript
1 ! "##!!$%$&'(&) "&$##!"# $%& '!($(!)"#( *# +,' *- $ + $.$ $ $ / / /$"
2 *+,*&$##"* ')!"# $%& 3!)"#( *# '!($( +,' *- $ + $.$ $ $ / / /$" (! "*"-*( **"**-*-*-.-..*.! * - "! / "! ' ).""&$##! / " "!" # $!%&'(!%&'( )*(+,,#-% )*(+,,#-% 1 23#4$4&##555 6!78! 9" ::...!!!(# $(/(/ #8#8$$:*$($$ #$#$#$/$( $(# :: :* $( /* $ 3 $$#$ $/ $( $%$$ $( $/ )9
3 +!! 1 Introduction EGIG database Definition Objective Criteria Contents The use of EGIG Data Analyses and results Definitions Trends of the European gas transmission system Total length Exposure Failure frequencies analyses Number of incidents Primary failure frequencies Secondary failure frequencies Relation between external interference, size of leak and design parameter Relation between corrosion, size of leak and design parameter Relation between construction defect, size of leak and design parameter Relation between hot tap made by error, size of leak and design parameter Ground movement Other and unknown Other analysis Ageing Detection of incidents Ignition probability Injuries and fatalities Conclusions and facts Reference )9
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
5 97< $*$8$( *2# 8:$97 91< # 91 96$#$8#$ # 96..B3<!!!)5..B5. ;/) >8)9
6 %,, C 3615 $ $$ $$($$:$$($$( $$ 8 $($ $!( #$/ 8 *$( $$8 #$$. $ #$888$D $ $$ $ $(/8 $ :$* 8#$$##$ #3674!( $* :* * # 8 8$ $($ $( $ $ $* (8$ # 88 $( $ $!( $: ** 8 $$ $# ( $ $( #$ $*! # 8 88$ #$ /##$ #$ $ $(39>4448 :!($$ /(#( $($(8 $ 8$ 9>>E!( $$ $# 8 #$ ##$ $( $* : * 8 8=#!( :#$8=# =$49>#$ 3444:$( 3674$5434!( > : : 8 8=# 5434/(#( $ $( : #$8=#:$( $> = 43?3444!(8::::88=#( ## $$: $( $(($( $$ $*!(((#$*$8$8#( $ $#$$ $($ $$8##$ #(#$ *$$ :# =# $ $8# #$ (: # : $( $($ $( / 8 $$($8# # $#$A$8#$ ?8)9
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
8 !( $$# $($* $ 88$ $( $!( $ 8$( #$:$( $$ $8$$($#* $#$8$($* ;8 $ 888$ :/( * /(/ $#* 88$ $ (*:#8*8 / ## ("!($$ %%8: $$/(#(//$* / #, $8$($* ##$#$ *$ $8$$($$ $(8$( *: 8$( $://$* 8$(:$* $8/( $* ##$ $8$$($(#( 8$(:$* $ )9
9 2 EGIG DATABASE 2.1 Definition!($* $* 8#$$.$#$$8 $ $ $($* Objective!(*D#$:8$($* $##$ $$ 8 #$ $ $$( 8$8#8$( $ $:* * 8 $$ $# 2.3 Criteria!(=#$8#$$*#$($* $(8/< -!(#$ $$$$ -!( $88$(8/#$ <!*8 $!* (!(:,+$. (($(3>*!*#$$ $(8# 8$( $$ #$ #$ ::=$ #$ ::# $#$($* 2.4 Contents!( $* #$ 8$ *$ $( D $ $ / #8#8$*$$(#$ 8$ *$ $ : $(#$ ##$< - $ -. - C8# $#$ -!8#$ - : - 8$ - $(# - ; #$ )9
10 #8#8$*$#$ # < -!(#(#$ $# 8 $( /(#( $( #$( $( 8$ $*: -!( "<.(A##<$($8$(( $(=$5# -<$($8$(( $(5# $(=$$( $8$( $<$($8$(( $($($ -!($# 8$(#$ $$8# $#$8#$A$8 -$$* :$ +$(/ -!(###2###8$ -!(# =# - 8$$(/$(#$( *$#$#$#$/$ - 8$$8$8$ $8$ :8$(:# < - $$8#<!(#$:$(:# $(#$/!(=$::$(#$#(*"#:$(!( $$#$: # : - <!(#$$$/!(# $:#$$ $ # ##FG/ ($($/ #$ - $#$8#$A$8<!($88#$# $#$$!(8#$$ ( $$$8//!(#$$ $($8*8#$* - :$<!($8:$* 8 : / - +$(/<!( *2# $8#$ #( ($$#, $8$(8$$(( * 8$( $$ $# :$( 1 $( $ 2.5 The use of EGIG Data!(*D#$:8$( $ (/$(#$$8 $ $* 8 $ /(#( 8/ # $#$ #$$##$# $($##$$ $8$( /( $#$#/*$ )9
11 (:#$* ( $$ $# 8$:88$$$: $( $ $( $$ $# 8$(/($* $)4 *$ $( $$$ $$ $# 8$( $ $(> ::$$ $* $$($:$($(8 $$ $# $(::8: ( /*$$( 8 $#54!( 8$ $# $( $$ $# *$8$($/(#(/$ $*!($* 88 ::/8$(88=# 8$( $ $$: 8$$( $*$8#$ $ $ / $(# *$ $ 88 $( *$ 8 #$ $(/ /$($($* $ *$ $* ($(#$ 8=# 8)52#( $ $* ( $( #$ 8=# 8 /$( / $(# 8 3> *$ $ $ * $##$ $( #$ 8=# 8 $()52#( /$(/$(# 83> )9
12 3 ANALYSES AND RESULTS 3.1 Definitions!(*D#$:8$ $$ $# $$$$(8$#$$($ $/## 8$( $($8/(#($( $!( $$ $# * $(##$8#$ #( 88=# $**$!(88=# ##$*:$(*8#$ *$(!( $ $ $/ 888=# $($( #!(8$$( $ 8$$$ #$:!( $ 8*/ - $($(8$*$ $ $ 2 HEI<#( # $$$(8$ :> 83444$ $(>$ 3444 >444E -!($$ $ $( 8*:##$8$(#$ $ -!($ $ $( ##$ $ $# $(8#:#!(88=# ##$*:$(*8#$ * $ $ $$ #$ $ >2 : :( * $#!( >2 :: $($$(##$ (:*8:$(>: = $!/ $$ $#$ $( $#8#$: < - #8#$:: $$8: /(#( $# / $ $ $( $$ *##$ 8 : $ 8 $ $( $ #8#$:8 6>@ 8$(##$ 8 8=# - $( # 8 / (/ $( 88#$ 8 # ( *#$$ $$(#$8$(8 $( $(88=#!( / *#$(8 8=# 888$#$.$#$(88#$8# # $ :$( $ 3.2 Trends of the European gas transmission system!( (: 8$$($ 8$( $ $$$ (/ $(:$8$( *$ /(#( $ $$* $J # $#$!( (: #$8$( $ $83674$$( $ )9
13 3.2.1 Total length!($$$(8$( $ $ # $$ # 5447$($(/ =$ $39> $((/* /$#$( $9 $#* $($$( $ /$(8$( $$(!(:$8$($$$(8$( $ (/ :#$ $ $#8 5$1 14, 12, 1, Length [km] 8, 6, 4, 2, Year [-] # * 3 (/ # $($(8$( $ $ /(#(( 8#$ $#( $( 367> !( #( # $/* D$(8#$$( /#:*$>4@ )9
14 Unknown diameter < 5'' 5" diameter < 11" 11" diameter < 17" 17" diameter < 23" 23" diameter < 29" 29" diameter < 35" 35" diameter < 41" 41" diameter < 47" diameter 47" Length [km] 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Year [-] & ') 5 $$ $($$(>JKL33J$(33JKL37J# $$( $ # Unknown year < year year year year year 23 year 24 15, 125, Length [km] 1, 75, 5, 25, Year [-] 3 * 9 (/ $($ /*$$(36?)23679$($( 8#$#** :/(#( $($ $8$( $$ )8)9
15 Unknown Coal tar Bitumen Polyethylene Epoxy Other 14, 12, 1, Length [km] 8, 6, 4, 2, Year [-] % * ) (/ $($#$*$$(/ $( $# #$ /$(##8$( $544)8$( $/$( /#$$#** : 14, 12, 1, Unknown cd < 8 cm 8 cm cd 1 cm cd > 1 cm Under water Length [km] 8, 6, 4, 2, Year [-] 4 (') > (/ $($ $8$( /$($(8#: $(14#!($ *: $($ $# # $(8#: 8$( >8)9
16 $ $$ 8 8# $ $ $8#!( #* 8 # 8 $( $(/$($(8#:$(3$ Unknown wt 5 mm 14, 12, 1, 5 mm < wt 1 mm 1 mm < wt 15 mm 15 mm < wt 2 mm 2 mm < wt 25 mm 25 mm < wt 3 mm wt > 3 mm Length [km] 8, 6, 4, 2, Year [-] ;.<'.)? (/ $($$( $# /$(# >$34!(8 (/ $# /$($ $*$8$(/$(# # #$ 8$(K># /(#(( # $$ # , 12, 1, Unknown Grade A Grade B X42 X46 X52 X56 X6 X65 X7 X8 Other Length [km] 8, 6, 4, 2, Year [-] = ?8)9
17 7 $$ $($$( 8$$<B>5 B?4!$($( 14, 12, 1, Unknown p 15 bar 15 < p 25 bar 25 < p 35 bar 35 < p 45 bar 45 < p 55 bar 55 < p 65 bar 65 < p 75 bar p > 75 bar Length [km] 8, 6, 4, 2, Year [-] >1?') 1 (/ # 8 $(((, +$.!( $ #$$$( $?>**: Exposure 6 (/ $(# 8$( :$( # (93 $($(8$*$ $ $ 2 HEI$( $($$ $ / =$9>> E )9
18 4,, 3,5, 3,, Exposure [km.yr] 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, Year [-] 5 (1 3.3 Failure frequencies analyses!( ( /$( $(##$ 8 8$ #$ $( # 88=#!( ##$ 8$$($ <$($$ $ $($ $ $(*8#$ Number of incidents $( :$( $/(#(#: $( $$ #$ / # $( $$( 7?#$ /$*$(* /(#(*$($$ *8#$ $35)68$( (/ $(*8#$ 33$(>::8$(#$ #!(8 (/ $(( *# $(>::8$(# # $#$8#$ /($(( *# $$8##$ 35$(#$:*8#$ #$ )9
19 6 5 Number of incidents [-] Year [-] #$ " Number of incidents: 5 year moving average External interference Corrosion Construction defect / Material failure Hot tap made by error Ground movement Other and unknown Year ## "4*(( )9
20 1,4 1,2 Number of incidents [-] 1, Year [-] #& (" Primary failure frequencies ( 93 $( 8 8=# $( $ 8 $( * 8 #$ 35/$( :* $(# $$ $ 6$( $$(*8#$ : $($$ $!( ( # $( 8 8=# 8 88$ $( $$ $(# $$( :$($ ) $(8$( $> 544?25434!(88=# 8$( :!*3!(6>@#8#$ 8 8$(88=# 8$( :..B3$( $$ $# $( $ $($$(*8#$ 8/. J /..B5 ( * 1@<B*A * /* #$$$<B* $( $ > $( $)3 35)6 9>>34 49> ) >534? 49) ? ? )?4 55>34 454) )34 43?7 544?25434 > 34? 4?>)34 43?5 "# */ )9
21 5434$(88=#:$($/ =$49>3444E * :$ $($ $( : 8 8=# 49> : $( $ ($/$($(88=#8497$$(7 $( !(88=#:$( $8: / 5434=$43?3444E!(88=#:$( $8: $(8$(88=# :$($ (/$(:8#:#$ 39 (/ $(:$8$(88=# :$($$( $ 8: 39 $$ $( $8$(88=# $(88=# 8$(> ::!(88=#:$($# E 3674 $ 49> 3444 E 5434!( : : 88=#:8: # *8#$>41?$43?3444E Primary failure frequency: average Primary failure frequency: 5 year moving average 1.4 Failure frequency per 1 km yr Year [-] #3 */ 88$# (:*$8:!*53) #$/$( $( #$ 8 #$ $( $ $ $8# $( # 8 #$ $$8# $#$8#$A,$8 :$ -$2$* +$(/ $*$ H@I )1) 3?7 3?3 7) )1?? "& "! )9
22 6 5 Percentage % External interf. Corrosion Constr. defect / Mat. Failure Hot tap made by error Ground movem. Other / Unknown Cause #% " 3>3?: #$:$(88=# 8$($ $$(8$( $8: ::# External interference Corrosion Construction defect / Material failure Hot tap made by error Ground movement Other and unknown Failure frequency per 1 km yr Year [-] #4 */'*) )9
23 5 yr mov. avg. failure frequency per 1 km yr External interference Corrosion Construction defect / Material failure Year [-] Hot tap made by error Ground movement Other and unknown #; */'46*(() 3> $$ $(#88=#:$(!( ( *$ $#(# :$ #( </ #$#$ $ 2 #$:# 8:$$#$ 8 $(# 8$$8# ##$ #$88=# :$( # $ E/($(>2 :: ( :88$433444E # $(>2 :: 8 $( $ $8# # $ 44?-/: $ $8# $( # 8 #$ *$ $( 88# /$( #$ 8 $( # ## # $#$8#$ A$8 :$ $( :$ 8 $ $8# #$ *$ $(( $$ 8#$ 8 $( #$ 8 2# $ 8 $( #$:$ 8$$ :#$ $( /=$$$ #$:$ /$( $( $ 8 $ #$ * $( # : 8$($(#$(*(8$(#$:$!*9$(88=# $(>::8$( 8=# :8$(54348#8#$:..B )9
24 Cause =# >:: 3444 External interference Corrosion.57.4 Construction defect / Material failure Hot tap made by error Ground movement.26.15!*9<.88=# # 37 $$ $(*$/$(# $($8#$$ 8 " year moving average.18 Failure frequency per 1 km.yr External interference Corrosion Construction defect / Material failure Hot tap made by error Ground movement Cause #= */* )8)9
25 .1 Pinhole/crack Hole Rupture Failure frequency per 1 km yr External interf. Corrosion Constr. defect / Mat. Failure Hot tap made by error Ground movem. Cause # * /*- C < ' #5=$6&$#$) 31 (/ $($:$(/($(* " ( $ ## * $ $8#/(#( $( $## $ >4@8$(#$ 8/*:$ Secondary failure frequencies!( # 8 8=# ##$* : $( * 8 #$ * $ $.$ $ 8$( $$ $# 8# $#$!(##$ 8 # 8 8=# $# $( 8# 8 M $ J $$(8#:$#$(# # =# 8$( #$ # :$ 8 $( $* $( $ $ # 8 8=# (:*##$##$$(8/ $ < - $ $8#< $( $ 8 $( $( $( 8#: $(/ $(# - <$(8# $#$$($8#$$(/$(# - $#$8#$A$8<$(8# $#$ - -$$*<$($8$( - :$<$($8$( - +$(/<# :$ $( /# $( :$# $ $ >8)9
26 Relation between external interference, size of leak and design parameter 36$5) (/$($*$/$(# =# 8$(#$ # * $$8# $($8$($($(8#:$(/$(# $( $8#( $$/( # $#$<$(8 $( $ $( $8#(8$(# /$( $ $( #( : 8$( */8$(:# 8#$8$( " $(($(( $ $$ $*$#$($$( $ #$=$$$:#$ *$/$ (:* $.6 Failure frequency per 1 km yr <5 5d<11 11d<17 17d<23 23d<29 29d<35 35d<41 41d<47 d47 Diameter class [inches] #5 1').25 Unknown Pinhole/crack Hole Rupture Failure frequency per 1 km yr <5 5d<11 11d<17 17d<23 23d<29 29d<35 35d<41 41d<47 d47 Nominal diameter ["] &$ 1-C<') ?8)9
27 .7 Failure frequency per 1 km yr cd<8 8 cd 1 cd>1 Above ground Cover depth [cm] &# 1(').4 Unknown Pinhole/crack Hole Rupture Failure frequency per 1 km yr cd<8 8 cd 1 cd>1 Above ground Cover class [cm] && 1 - C < (') )9
28 .5 Failure frequency per 1 km yr wt5 5<wt1 1<wt15 15<wt2 2<wt25 25<wt3 wt>3 Nominal wall thickness [mm] &3 1.<'.).25 Unknown Pinhole/crack Hole Rupture Failure frequency per 1 km yr wt5 5<wt1 1<wt15 15<wt2 2<wt25 25<wt3 wt>3 Nominal wall thickness [mm] &% 1 - C <. <'.) $( 8 ## #*/<!( 8 $## 36 $($ $ :* $ $ $8# $(* $!( #* * $( 8#$ )9
29 $($ $ #* ( / $( * $( # $($$( $# 8$/$$( /$(#!( ### $($$($(8#: 8$(#$ 8$( 88=# 8!( $($ /$($(#: /(:/88=#53 $ $($/$(# 88#$:$#$: $$(#$8 $$8#!( :#$ $ ( ## $ /$( $ $: #:$(/$($( /$( /$(# 54555) Relation between corrosion, size of leak and design parameter 5> $ 94 (/ $( $*$/ $( 8 8=# 8 #$ # * # $(8# $#$8$($($8#$$(/$(#!(88=# 8$( $ $ 8#$8$( ".25 Failure frequency per 1 km yr yr<54 54yr63 64yr73 74yr83 84yr93 94yr3 yr4 Construction year &4 *'*) )9
30 Failure frequency per 1 km yr Unknown Pinhole/crack Hole Rupture yr<54 54yr63 64yr73 74yr83 84yr93 94yr3 yr4 Year of construction &; -C<*'*) Failure frequency per 1 km yr Unknown Coal tar Bitumen Polyethylene Epoxy Coating type &= * )9
31 .1 Unknown Pinhole/crack Hole Rupture Failure frequency per 1 km yr Coal tar Bitumen Polyethylene Epoxy Type of coating & -C<* Failure frequency per 1 km yr wt5 5<wt1 1<wt15 15<wt2 2<wt25 25<wt3 wt>3 Nominal wall thickness [mm] &5.<'.) )9
32 .12 Unknown Pinhole/crack Hole Rupture Failure frequency per 1 km yr wt5 5<wt1 1<wt15 15<wt2 2<wt25 25<wt3 wt>3 Nominal wall thickness [mm] 3$ -C<.<'.) ( *$8 $($( $## 8#$ 3?@31 5>$94 (/$($# 8$ $ " ( ## /( :8/( /* :$##/(#(/ # $#$*836>)!( $/ # *$# 8 8$($ $$8#: 5> $$ $(*$/$(8# $#$8$( $(8 8=# /( 57 (/ $($*$/$( $#$8#$ $( 8 8=# $( 8 $ $($ /$( $ $ #$ /(:((88=# (8$$8$( $ #$8 $(/ $(# *$ $( $( $(# / $( $( 8 56 $$!(8$8$( #(=# $(# $ *8# #$$(8( #(#$* $#$ 88$ $#$: $* / $ :# $( *8#!( 8#$(#$#$#$ #$ : /# $*$#$$ $!($ 8# (:* *$(<$# $# # /$(/# $# #$$$($ 8#8$( /( $# #$ $ $( $ 8# 8 $( % $ 5434 $( $< $ $*$8# #$ H@I $ $ %/ ) "% "! )9
33 8$# / $$$:## $ 3)@ %/# $3)@8$($# #$ /( $ # ##/ *81@$7)@8$($# #$ / # * $ # ## Relation between construction defect, size of leak and design parameter.2 Failure frequency per 1 km yr yr<54 54yr63 64yr73 74yr83 84yr93 94yr3 yr4 Construction year 3# :*'*) Failure frequency per 1 km yr Unknown Pinhole/crack Hole Rupture yr<54 54yr63 64yr73 74yr83 84yr93 94yr3 yr4 Year of construction 3& :- C < * '*) )9
34 93 (/ $($$($( $((($(88=# $# $#$ 8#$A$ $ $($ $( / :* $ # $#$ 8#$A$/(#( $$#(#:$!( (( * * :$( (9) (/ $($$(88=#8$(# MN544)J ((!( 88=# # *3#$/$( $8 :(( *$ Relation between hot tap made by error, size of leak and design parameter!($f($$*g $($##$( **$ $.6 Failure frequency per 1 km yr <5 5d<11 11d<17 17d<23 23d<29 29d<35 35d<41 41d<47 d47 Nominal diameter ["] 33 "* 99 $$ $($$ :*$($$9) (/ $($$( 8#$$ "8( *$ $ " 8( #/$(: $ )8)9
35 Unknown Pinhole/crack Hole Rupture.4 Failure frequency per 1 km yr <5 5d<11 11d<17 17d<23 23d<29 29d<35 35d<41 41d<47 d47 Diameter class [inches] 3% "*-C< Ground movement :$ *87>@8$($$#$ 8$($* 9>9?#$ $($*$/:$ "8$ # :$#$ ## " (/:$ #*## $($ $ :*8:$$($!(* $$($ )7 J # *:$#$!( $$ $($: $ #* 88#$* $( 8# ##* :$#$.5 Failure frequency per 1 km yr <5 5d<11 11d<17 17d<23 23d<29 29d<35 35d<41 41d<47 d47 Nominal diameter ["] 34 ( >8)9
36 .2 Pinhole/crack Hole Rupture Failure frequency per 1 km yr.1 <5 5d<11 11d<17 17d<23 23d<29 29d<35 35d<41 41d<47 d47 Diameter class [inches] 3; (-C< $(8$#*$$( 8# $ *$((($ $$$ /(#(:$F,:$G!( *2# 8:$< 2; 2 2 : 2, 2* 2 2+$( 2%/ 97 (/ $( $*$8$( *2# $(#$:$ ?8)9
37 6 5 Incident distribution [%] Unknown Dike break Erosion Flood Landslide Mining River Other Ground movement 3= ""6( Other and unknown!(# 8$(#$F+$(/G ($!( *2# ($ $ $5?@8$(#$ /$($( #$ $( $( #$ $ ($(:* # $( $* /(#( $ 88=#$($=$444>63444E!($( $*$8$(# =# 8($$ 8 " +$853#$ 36/ ( ## 5 $ ( ($ ( #8$ : #$9) )9
38 3.4 Other analysis Ageing!(8#8$(8$( $(88=# ( * $$( $ $( $(88=#8# #$ ( * $ 8#$ 8# $#$.8 yr<54 54yr63 64yr73 74yr83 84yr93 94yr3 yr4.7 Failure frequency per 1 km.yr yr<5 5yr<1 1yr<15 15yr<2 2yr<25 25yr<3 3yr<35 35yr<4 4yr<45 45yr<5 yr5 Age [year] 3 *') &91!! "!(8 $## 891 $($# $#$ *836?)(: (( 8 8=# $( #$ # $#$ -/: # $$ ## $($88=# #$:8$(#$ ($# $. # $#$# $*836?4 $* *D#$$8 $# ( $#(*# :* $( 36?4 $ $($ $8$/ (:$(( $88 $#. # $#$8 $( 36?)23679# $#$# $ (/ +$ 8 (:$$#$(88=#8$( )9
39 3.4.2 Detection of incidents!*> (/ $( $*$ 8$($8 $#$!( *# $( $# $#$ /$( $ 97@8 $(#$ % $ 5434 $ 37@ 8$( #$ / $#$* $( $ Detection Incident distribution Public 36.7 Patrol 16.5 Contractor 15.6 Unknown 7.5 Company staff 7.5 Distribution company 4.8 Landowner 4.6 Other 3.3 Client 1.7 On line inspection 1.6 River police.2 "4 Unknown Client Company staff Contractor Distri company Landowner On line inspection Patrol River police Public Other 5 Incident distribution [%] External interf. Corrosion Constr. defect / Mat. Failure Hot tap made by error Ground movem. Other / Unknown Cause )9
40 96 $$ $( $#$ 8 #$ # $#* $($ $ #$ $#$*$(*#$$8#*##$#$ $( $$$ $ 8$#$.$ *$($ # $*88#$: 8$($#$8#$ /$($(# # # $#$8#$ Ignition probability $$$: $ /(#($ $(# =# 8$(#$ $( )>@8$( # #$ $($* $ $ $( $#8$ #!($* : $( *$$:$$(*$/$ "!*?: $($**$ "8 "8 $**$ H@I.(2## ) - $ 5 39 "; ""<* $ /$($## : #$!( #$(# 8 /$($!*7# (/ $($ 8*$ $ $ $( 8 $ $#* $# $($ $( $ $*(( "8 $L3?#( $ 3?#( $**$ H@I "= ""!!( : $* : $( $ **$ 8 #$ $$( #$: 8 $( # $ *: $($$( **$ :##$$(#!( #8# $$($**$ 8 # *($ +$853 $( # *($35$/(#(* $( $**$8 $($$>7@ Injuries and fatalities : $$ $#8$*$88=# # 8#$ 8 $( $#$ 8$$# D :8$$!($* 8#$ =$$:8$*$$(# =# 8#$!($* #$ $$835)6#$ 7# 4?@8$($$( #$ :8$$ $$ $$(*###5# 45@8$($ )48)9
41 !(**$8 :# =# ( *: $/$($(**$8:* / $(88#$ 4 CONCLUSIONS AND FACTS ( $ $( #$ $*! # 8 88$ #$ /##$ #$ $ $(39>4448 :!($$ /(#( $($(8 $ 8$ 9>>E!( $$ $# 8 #$ ##$ $( $* : * 8 8=#!( :#$8=# =$49>#$ 3444:$( 3674$5434!( > : : 8 8=# 5434/(#( $ $( : #$8=#:$( $> = 43?3444!(8::::88=#( ## $$: $( $(($( $$ $*!(((#$*$8$8#( $ $#$$ $($ $$8##$ #(#$ *$$ :# =# $ $8# #$ (: # : $( $($ $( / 8 $$($8# # $#$A$8#$ 5 REFERENCE 7$( $8$(.#$$ #* )38)9
42 D# #$%$% * * /* #$$$<B* 54E * /* #$$$<B* 54E F * /* #$$$<B* $( $ > >4 496) $( $)3 35)6 9>>34 49> ) >534? 49) ? ? ? 45?7 494> )?4 55>34 454) 431? 455) )34 43?7 43)> ?25434 > 34? 4?>)34 43? ? " */(( Cause.8 8=# >@;;.8 8=# >@%;.8 8=# 3444 External interference Corrosion Construction defect / Material failure Hot tap made by error Ground movement "5 */'#5=$6&$#$)54E ( Cause.8 8=# >@;;.8 8=# >@%;.8 8=# 3444 External interference Corrosion Construction defect / Material failure Hot tap made by error Ground movement "#$ 46*((*/ '&$#$) )58)9
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