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3 GBό 3( *'ά40&22& 14.1 ='&#&ί,"3&' 1 2"4ά%1 6&+12"0',ή 2"3&H%13ό313& 31. ':(3'2ί&., 6&+ώ. 6&' (' 6ύ6%(' &,&3ί21:1. 6&' 8B(3ί21:1. 3(8 "80ώ. Ό3&, =12'(804ή+16" 3( "80ώ, :3'. &0@έ. 3(8 1999, 1 ':(3'2ί& 3(8 &Bέ,&,3' :3( =(%ά0'( ή3&, 1,179 =(%ά0'& &,ά "80ώ. I'& 3& B0ώ3& 3( "80ώ 8B(3'2ή+16" &Bέ,&,3' :3( =(%ά0'(, 2" 6&3ώ3&3( :12"ί( :3'. 26 )63>H0ί(8 2000, ό3&, έ#+&:" 3& 0,825 =(%ά0'& &,ά "80ώ. GBό 3'. &0@έ. 3( ( "80ώ ά0@':",& &,&3'2ά3&' &Bέ,&,3' :3( =(%ά0'(, &, 1 &,&3ί21:1 &83ή "ί@" B(%%έ. ='&682ά,:"'.. ) B0ώ3(. 6ύ6%(. 31. &,&3ί21:1. 3(8 "80ώ (%(6%10ώ+16" :3& 3έ%1 3(8 2004, ό3&, 1 ':(3'2ί& 3(8 "80ώ έ#+&:" 3( 1,363 =(%ά0'& &,ά "80ώ. Έ,&. ="ύ3"0(. 30'"3ή. 6ύ6%(. &,&3ί21:1. 3(8 "80ώ A"6ί,1:" :3'. &0@έ. 3( '. 15 7"B3"2H0ί(8 3(8 2008, 12έ0& 6&3ά00"8: Lehman Brothers 6&' 12"0(21,ί& 6%"'=ί 4'& 31 ='"+,ή,(2':2&3'6ή 60ί:1 3(8 2008, 1 ':(3'2ί& 3(8 "80ώ H0':6ό3&, :3( ':3(0'6ά 8P1%ό3"0( :12"ί( 31., 1,599 =(%ά0'& &,ά "80ώ. Jέ:& :" έ,& 2ή,& 1 ':(3'2ί& 3(8 "80ώ "ί@" 6&3&00"ύ:"' :3& 1,246 =(%ά0'& &,ά "80ώ (27 )63>H0ί(8 2008). Έ63(3", 1 ':(3'2ί& "80ώ =(%&0ί(8 ='&682&ί,"3&' :" έ,& "ύ0(. 2"3&Aύ 1,5 6&' 1,2 =(%&0ί>, &,ά "80ώ "+1ά,#+ 50# 4,#*6&#5έ(./&0110*έ( 839& )*+,ά./&011ά*203+( I'& 3( 2"4&%ύ3"0( 2έ0( "3&B(%"2'6ή. B"0'ό=(8, (' :8,&%%&4έ. 4'& 3& B"0'::ό3"0& ='"+,ώ. ='&B0&42&3"ύ:'2&,(2ί:2&3& 2έ:> 3(8 =(%&0ί(8 3>, EQG. F( =(%ά0'( 3>, EQG +">0"ί3&' 3( %ό+"0+, ό67+, 4'& 3'. :8,&%%&4έ. :31, &4(0ά :8,&%%ά42&3(.. I'& B&0ά="'42&, 4'&,& 2"3&30έP"' 6&,"ί. :3"0%ί,". :" =ύ( :8,&%%&4έ.. Jί& 4'&,& 2"3&30&B(ύ, (' :3"0%ί,". :" =(%ά0'&, 6&' 2ί& 4'&,& 2"3&30&B(ύ, 3& =(%ά0'& :" 4'έ,. Rό4> 3(8 Hά+(8. (2"4ά%(8 ό46(8 :8,&%%&4ώ,) 31. &4(0ά. 3(8 =(%&0ί(8, 3( 6ό:3(. &83ή '4>,'6ή. :8,&%%&4ή. "ί,&' :8,ή+>. 2'60ό3"0( &Bό 31, &B"8+"ί&. :8,&%%&4ή 3>, :3"0%',ώ, :" 4'έ,. J" 31, "':&4>4ή 3(8 "80ώ, 8Bά0@"' :ή2"0& 6&' έ,& ="ύ3"0(,ό2':2& ό@12& :31, B&46ό:2'& ('6(,(2ί&, &%%ά 3( =(%ά0'( B&0&2έ,"' 3( 680ί&0@( ='"+,έ.,(2':2&3'6ό ό@12&. 731, &4(0ά :8,&%%ά42&3(., =", 2B(0"ί,& 8Bά0@(8, 21 &A'(B('12έ,". =8,&3ό313". 6"0=ώ, &Bό 30'4>,'6έ. :8,&%%&4έ. :3& ='ά#(0&,(2ί:2&3&. I'& B&0ά="'42&, &, S1 "ί,&' ':(3'2ί& 31. :3"0%ί,&. :" =(%ά0'&, S2 1 ':(3'2ί& 3(8 "80ώ :" =(%ά0'& 6&' S3 1 ':(3'2ί& 31. :3"0%ί,&. :" "80ώ, 6&' (' :8,&%%&4έ. 6ό:3(., :31, ':(00(Bί& =", 2B(0"ί B&0ά,& ':@ύ"', S1=S3 x S S S S S (14.1) 5 G, 1 (14.1), B(8 8B(="'6,ύ"' 31, &B(8:ί& =8,&3ό313&. 6"0=ώ, &Bό 30'4>,'6έ. :8,&%%&4έ. (arbitrage) B&0&H'άC"3&', (' ='&B0&42&3"83έ. +& 2B(0(ύ:&,,& 6ά,(8, 6έ0=1 &Bό 30'4>,'6έ. :8,&%%&4έ.. I'& B&0ά="'42&, :3'. 16 J&M( :3'. 11:00 B2 ώ0& L%%ά=(., (' ':(3'2ί". &83έ. ή3&,, 3

4 S 1 = 1,5958 S 2 = 1,2701 S 3 = 1,2560 F( 4',ό2",( 3>, =ύ( 3"%"83&ί>, ':(3'2'ώ, "ί,&' 1,5952 B(8 ='&#έ0"' &Bό 31, B0ώ31 ':(3'2ί& 2ό%'. :3( 3έ3&03( ="6&='6ό. )' :8,"@"ί. &4(0&B>%1:ί". :31, &4(0ά :8,&%%ά42&3(. "A&#&,ίC(8, ό%". 3'. =8,&3ό313". 6έ0=(8. &Bό 30'4>,'6έ. :8,&%%&4έ. 2"3&Aύ,(2':2ά3>, :039*+,ί$(./&0110*ώ& 839& )*+,ά./&011ά*203+( )' :8,&%%&4έ. :31, &4(0ά :8,&%%ά42&3(. ='&60ί,(,3&' :" 30"'. H&:'6έ. 6&314(0ί".. E B0ώ31 "ί,&' (' 48έ6*20#' 02%,33,.έ' (spot), όb(8 1 &4(0&B>%1:ί& 6%"ί,"' ά2":& (:31, B0&42&3'6ό313& ",3ό. =ύ( 12"0ώ,). G83έ. B0(:='(0ίC(8, 3'. 48έ6*20#' "0*4"+ί#'. E ="ύ3"01 6&314(0ί& "ί,&' (' 02%,33,.έ',%4,33,.ώ% (swap), :3'. (B(ί". 3(,ό2':2& B(8 &4(0άC"3&' (B>%"ί3&') :ή2"0& +& "B&,&B>%1+"ί ("B&,&4(0&:3"ί) :" 2ί& 2"%%(,3'6ή 12"0(21,ί&. E 3'2ή 3ό:( έ@(8:&. ό:( 6&' 31. 2"%%(,3'6ή. &4(0&B>%1:ί&. B0(:='(0ίC"3&' :ή2"0&. E ':(3'2ί& &,3&%%&4ή. (swap rate) "ί,&' 1 ='&#(0ά 2"3&Aύ 31. ':(3'2ί&. "B&,&4(0ά. ("B&,&Bώ%1:1.) 6&' 31. ':(3'2ί&. 31. &0@'6ή. Bώ%1:1. (&4(0ά.). E 30"@(8:& ':(3'2ί& 6&' 1 ':(3'2ί& &,3&%%&4ή. B0(:='(0ίC(8, 31, ;8*$#0+",)ή ':(3'2ί& (forward exchange rate). E 30ί31 6&314(0ί& "ί,&' (' ;8*$#0+",)έ' 02%,33,.έ' (forward transactions). G83έ. "ί,&' :12"0',έ. :82#>,ί"., 4'& 2"%%(,3'6ή &4(0&B>%1:ί& ",ό.,(2ί:2&3(.. E 3'2ή, 1 B(:ό313& 6&' 1 12"0(21,ί& 31. &,3&%%&4ή. (B0(+":2ί&) B0(:='(0ίC(,3&' :ή2"0&. Fέ3('". :8,&%%&4έ. 4ί,(,3&' 4'& 1 6&' 2 "H=(2ά="., 6&+ώ. 6&' 4'& 1, 3, 6 6&' 12 2ή,".. Rέ2" ό3' έ,&,ό2':2& :8,&%%ά:"3&' 2" 8B"03ί212& (premium) ό3&, 1 B0(+":2'&6ή ':(3'2ί& "ί,&' 8P1%ό3"01 &Bό 31, 30έ@(8:& ':(3'2ί& (2" 3(, G2"0'6&,'6ό (0':2ό). 731, &,3ί+"31 B"0ίB3>:1 :8,&%%ά:"3&' 2" έ6b3>:1 (discount). E 2"4ά%1 B%"'(P1#ί& 3>, :8,&%%&4ώ, :31, &4(0ά :8,&%%ά42&3(. "ί,&' 30έ@(8:". :8,&%%&4έ. 2"3&Aύ ='&B0&42&3"83ώ,. )' :8,&%%&4έ. &,3&%%&4ώ, "ί,&' B"0ίB(8 3( 1/3 3(8 ό46(8 3>, :8,(%'6ώ, :8,&%%&4ώ,. )' B0(+":2'&6έ. :8,&%%&4έ. "ί,&' B(%ύ 2'60ό B(:(:3ό 3(8 :8,(%'6(ύ ό46(8. 712&,3'6ό 0ό%( :31, &4(0ά :8,&%%ά42&3(. B&ίC(8, (' "80>6&3&+έ:"'., ή ),4,$έ0#"' 0# #28<%*+ί0+,4,. L80>,ό2':2& "ί,&' 2ί& 6&3ά+":1 :" Aέ,(,ό2':2&, "63ό. έ6=(:1. &83(ύ 3(8,(2ί:2&3(.. G, 6&' 6&%(ύ,3&' "80>,(2ί:2&3& 4'& ':3(0'6(ύ. %ό4(8., (' 6&3&+έ:"'. &83έ. =", "ί,&' &B&0&ί313& :31, L80ώB1. Jί& 6&3ά+":1 :" =(%ά0'& :" 2ί& 30άB"C& 3(8 R(,=ί,(8 "ί,&' 2ί& 6&3ά+":1 "80>=(%&0ί>,, ",ώ 2ί& 6&3ά+":1 :" 4'", :" 2ί& 30άB"C& 31. Tέ&. Uό061. "ί,&' 2ί& 4

5 6&3ά+":1 "80>4'έ,. )' B"0'::ό3"0". "80>6&3&+έ:"'. "ί,&' 6&3&+έ:"'. :3&+"0(ύ "B'3(6ί(8 2" B0(+":2ί". B(8 &,3&,&6%(ύ, &83έ. B(8 "ί,&' ='&+έ:'2". 4'& B0(+":2'&6έ. &4(0&B>%1:ί". :8,&%%ά42&3(.. F( LIBOR (London Interbank Offer Rate) "ί,&' 3( "B'3ό6'( :3( (B(ί( (' 30άB"C". "ί,&' ='&3"+"'2έ,".,& =&,"ί:(8, 680ί>. =(%ά0'& 6&' :3"0%ί,". :3'. B'( &A'όB':3". 30άB"C". 6&' B(8 :31, ='&30&B"C'6ή &4(0ά 3(8 R(,=ί,(8. *ά,"'& :" %'4ό3"0( &A'όB':3". 30άB"C". 6&' 8P1%ό3"0( "B'3ό6'( &Bό 3( LIBOR (premium). 3( EURIBOR (Euro Interbank Offer Rate) "ί,&' 3( "B'3ό6'( :3( (B(ί( (' 30άB"C". "ί,&' ='&3"+"'2έ,".,& =&,"ί:(8, "80ώ :3'. B'( &A'όB':3". 30άB"C". 6&' B(8 :31, ='&30&B"C'6ή &4(0ά 3(8 "80ώ (:31 V0&,6#(ύ031, 3( Q&0ί:', 3( J'%ά,( 6&' &%%(ύ). *ά,"'& :" %'4ό3"0( &A'όB':3". 30άB"C". 6&' 8P1%ό3"0( "B'3ό6'( &Bό 3( EURIBOR (premium). E "Aέ%'A1 3(8 EURIBOR &Bό 3( '& =ά,"'& 2ί&. "H=(2ά=&., 30'ώ, 21,ώ, 6&' =ώ="6& 21,ώ, B&0(8:'άC"3&' :3( *'ά40&22& E "Aέ%'A1 3>, H0&@8@0ό,'>, (30ί21,>,) "B'3(6ί>, 3(8 =(%&0ί(8 6&' 3(8 2ά60(8 &Bό 3( 1964 ("80ώ &Bό 3( 1999) B&0(8:'άC"3&' :3( *'ά40&22& ! :01/22έ&9 =8+>/&02ί0 36&?@#3+5ί6& )' 30έ@(8:". ':(3'2ί"., (' B0(+":2'&6έ. ':(3'2ί". 6&' 3& "B'3ό6'& 3>, "80>6&3&+έ:">, "A&03ώ,3&' 2"3&Aύ 3(8., 2έ:> 31. 6&%822έ,1. ':(=8,&2ί&. 3>, "B'3(6ί>,. G, i "ί,&' 3( "B'3ό6'& 2ί&. 6&3ά+":1. "80>=(%&0ί>, 4'& 2ί& B"0ί(=( t, i* 3( "B'3(6ί( 2ί&. 6&3ά+":1. "80>-"80ώ, S "ί,&' 1 30έ@(8:& ':(3'2ί& (=(%ά0'& &,ά "80ώ) 6&' F 1 B0(+":2'&6ή ':(3'2ί& 4'& 2ί& B"0ί(=(, 3ό3" B0έB"',& ':@ύ"' 1 6&%822έ,1 ':(=8,&2ί& 3>, "B'3(6ί>,. *1%&=ή, ό3' (' &B(=ό:"'. 3>, =ύ( "80>6&3&+έ:">, (B(8 έ@(8, 3(, ί='( 6ί,=8,(, 4'&3ί "6=ί=(,3&' &Bό 31, ί='& 30άB"C&), B0έB"',& "ί,&' ':(=ύ,&2". ό3&, "6#0άC(,3&' :" 6(',ό,ό2':2&. 7" &,3ί+":1 B"0ίB3>:1, 6&,"ί. =", +& ή3&, ='&3"+"'2έ,(.,& ='&60&3ή:"' 31, "80>6&3ά+":1 2" 31 2'60ό3"01 &Bό=(:1. 731, ':(00(Bί&, (' "80>6&3&+έ:"'. +& B0έB"',& έ@(8, 3'. ί='". &B(=ό:"'. :" 6ά+",ό2':2&, &,"A&03ή3>. 3(8 &, "ί,&' "6B"#0&:2έ,". :" =(%ά0'& ή :" "80ώ. G83ό :12&ί,"' ό3', 1+ i t = (1+ i t * ) F t S t S S S S S S S S S (14.2) 5

6 G, 1 (14.2) B&0&H'άC"3&', όb>. 6&' 4'& 3'. 30'4>,'6έ. :8,&%%&4έ., 8Bά0@(8, B"0'+ώ0'& :8,&%%&4ώ, "A':(00όB1:1. (arbitrage) B(8 +& "A&#&,ί:(8, 3& όb('& B"0'+ώ0'& 6έ0=(8. 6&' +& (=14ή:(8, :31, (14.2). E (14.2) :8,"Bά4"3&' ό3', F t = 1+ i t 1+ i S * t = 1+ i * t i t * t 1+ i t S t SS S S S S S S (14.3) E ='&#(0ά 3>, "B'3(6ί>, B0(:='(0ίC"' 3( &, 1 B0(+":2'&6ή ':(3'2ί& +& :8,"Bά4"3&' 8B"03ί212& (premium) ή έ6b3>:1 (discount) :" :@έ:1 2" 31, 30έ@(8:& ':(3'2ί&. G, 3( "B'3ό6'( 3>, "80>6&3&+έ:">, :" =(%ά0'& "ί,&' 8P1%ό3"0( &Bό 3( "B'3ό6'( 3>, 6&3&+έ:">, :" "80ώ, 3ό3" 3( "80ώ &,3&%%ά:"3&' 2" 8B"03ί212& :31, B0(+":2'&6ή &4(0ά :8,&%%ά42&3(., =1%&=ή 1 B0(+":2'&6ή 3(8 ':(3'2ί& "ί,&' 8P1%ό3"01 &Bό 31, 30έ@(8:& ':(3'2ί&. 7" &,3ί+"31 B"0ίB3>:1 3( "80ώ &,3&%%ά:"3&' 2" έ6b3>:1 :31, B0(+":2'&6ή &4(0ά :8,&%%ά42&3(.. I'& B&0ά="'42&, :3'. 15 J&03ί(8 2012, 1 30έ@(8:& ':(3'2ί& 3(8 "80ώ ή3&, 1,2775 =(%ά0'& &,ά "80ώ, 1 B0(+":2'&6ή ",ό. 21,ό. ή3&, 1,2776 (8B"03ί212& 0,1% :" "3ή:'& Hά:1), 6&' 1 B0(+":2'&6ή ",ό. έ3(8. ή3&, 1,2842 (8B"03ί212& 0,5% :" "3ή:'& Hά:1). E (14.2) B(%%έ. #(0έ. "6#0άC"3&' 2" Hά:1 31 %(4&0'+2'6ή 31. B0(:έ44':1, i t i t * + f t s t SS S S S S S S S S (14.5) όb(8 f=ln(f), s=ln(s). 14.3! )5ά1/@39 =8+>/&02ί0 36&?@#3+5ί6& F( 6έ0=(. &Bό 2ί& B0(+":2'&6ή :8,&%%&4ή :31, &4(0ά :8,&%%ά42&3(. ':(ύ3&' 2" 31 ='&#(0ά 31. B0(+":2'&6ή. ':(3'2ί&. &Bό 31, 30έ@(8:& ':(3'2ί&, 31 :3'42ή %ήa B0(+":2ί&..!&3ά :8,έB"'&, 31 :3'42ή 31. :ύ,&p B0(+":2'&6ή. :8,&%%&4ή., 2" 31 8Bό+":1 31. (8="3"0ό313&. &Bέ,&,3' :3(, 6ί,=8,( (risk neutrality), +& B0έB"',& ':@ύ"', F t = E t (S t +1 ) S S S S S S S S S S (14.6) όb(8 = "ί,&' ( 3"%":3ή. 2&+12&3'6ώ, B0(:=(6'ώ,. E (14.6) %έ"' ό3' 6ά3> &Bό :8,+ή6". (8="3"0ό313&. &Bέ,&,3' :3(, 6ί,=8,(, 1 B0(+":2'&6ή ':(3'2ί& +& B0έB"',& ':(ύ3&' 2" 31 2&+12&3'6ή ((0+(%(4'6ή) B0(:=(6ί& 4'& 31, 3'2ή έ@(8:&. ':(3'2ί&. 31 :3'42ή 31. %ήa B0(+":2ί&.. 6

7 G,3'6&+':3ώ,3&. 31, (14.6) :31, (14.2), 31,,)ά32;47 "0*?2%,+ί, 4<% #;"4*)ί<%. 1+ i t = (1+ i t * ) E t (S t +1 ) S t S S S S S S S S (14.7) E :8,+ή61 &83ή :8@,ά 40ά#"3&' 6&' 2" 31 %(4&0'+2'6ή 31. B0(:έ44':1, i t i t * + E t (s t +1 ) s t S S S S S S S S S (14.8) ή >., i t i t * + E t (S t +1 ) S t S t S S S S S S S S S (14.9) G, 1 (14.7) B&0&H'άC"3&', +& 8Bά0@"' 1 =8,&3ό313& B0&42&3(B(ί1:1. B0(=(6>2έ,>, 6"0=ώ,, 2έ:> 31. :30&314'6ή.,& =&,"ίc":&' :" έ,&,ό2':2& 6&',& =&,"ίc"'. &6ά%8B3& :" έ,& ά%%(. G83ά 3& B0(:=(6ώ2",& 6έ0=1 +& (=14ή:(8, :" "A'::(0(B13'6έ. :8,&%%&4έ. (arbitrage) B(8 +& (=14ή:(8, :31, (14.7). E :8,+ή &6ά%8B31. ':(=8,&2ί&. 3>, "80έ>. :31 ='"+,ή 2&60(('6(,(2'6ή, >. 2ί& B0ώ31 B0(:έ44':1 :3'. :8,+ή6". ':(00(Bί&. 3>, 6&' :3( B0(:='(0':2ό 3>, :8,&%%&42&3'6ώ, ':(3'2'ώ, A B,+8>#+,#82ό( 36&./&0110*203#5ώ& =8+3#2#ώ&. JB(0(ύ2" 31, :8,+ή61 ':(00(Bί&. :3'. B0(6"'2έ,(8,& &,&%ύ:(82" 3( H0&@8@0ό,'( B0(:='(0':2ό 3>, :8,&%%&42&3'6ώ, ':(3'2'ώ,. GBό 31, (14.7), "B'%ύ(,3&. 4'& 31 :8,&%%&42&3'6ή ':(3'2ί&, έ@(82", S t = 1+ i * t E t S t +1 S S S S S S S S S (14.10) 1+ i t I'& B&0ά="'42&, &, S "ί,&' 1 :8,&%%&42&3'6ή ':(3'2ί& 3(8 "80ώ ($ &,ά ), i* 3( "B'3ό6'( 31. L80>Cώ,1. 6&' i 3( "B'3ό6'( 3>, EQG, 1 (14.10) :8,"Bά4"3&', S $,t = 1+ i EU,t 1+ i US,t E t S $,t +1 S S S S S S S S (14.11) H (14.11) 2&. 8B(="'6,ύ"' 3(8. 30"'. B&0ά4(,3". B(8 B0(:='(0ίC(8, 31, 30έ@(8:& :8,&%%&42&3'6ή ':(3'2ί& 3(8 "80ώ. 7

8 Q0ώ3(,, 3( "B'3ό6'( 3(8 =(%&0ί(8. Ό:( 8P1%ό3"0( "ί,&' 3( "B'3ό6'( 3(8 =(%&0ί(8, 3ό:( 2'60ό3"01 "ί,&' 1 30έ@(8:& :8,&%%&42&3'6ή ':(3'2ί& 3(8 "80ώ :" :@έ:1 2" 31, B0(:=(6ώ2",1 2"%%(,3'6ή ':(3'2ί&. J" ά%%& %ό4'&, ά,(=(. 3>, "B'3(6ί>, 3(8 =(%&0ί(8 H"%3'ώ,"' 31 :@έ:1 &,3&%%&4ή. 3(8 =(%&0ί(8 2" 3( "80ώ, 6&' 2"'ώ,"' 31 :8,&%%&42&3'6ή ':(3'2ί& 3(8 "80ώ :" =(%ά0'&. *"ύ3"0(. B&0ά4>, "ί,&' 3& "80>B&M6ά "B'3ό6'&. Ό:( 8P1%ό3"0( "ί,&' 3( "B'3ό6'( 3(8 "80ώ, 3ό:( 8P1%ό3"01 "ί,&' 1 30έ@(8:& :8,&%%&42&3'6ή ':(3'2ί& 3(8 "80ώ :" :@έ:1 2" 31, B0(:=(6ώ2",1 2"%%(,3'6ή ':(3'2ί&. J" ά%%& %ό4'&, ά,(=(. 3>, "B'3(6ί>, 3(8 "80ώ "B'="',ώ,"' 31 :@έ:1 &,3&%%&4ή. 3(8 =(%&0ί(8 2" 3( "80ώ, 6&' &8Aά,"' 31 :8,&%%&42&3'6ή ':(3'2ί& 3(8 "80ώ. F0ί3(. B&0ά4>, "ί,&' 1 B0(:=(6ώ2",1 2"%%(,3'6ή ':(3'2ί&. Ό:( 8P1%ό3"01 "ί,&' 1 B0(:=(6ώ2",1 2"%%(,3'6ή ':(3'2ί&, 3ό:( 8P1%ό3"01 "ί,&' 6&' 1 30έ@(8:& ':(3'2ί&. Q&0ά4(,3"., "63ό. 3>, "B'3(6ί>,, B(8 (=14(ύ, :" B0(:=(6ώ2",1 2"%%(,3'6ή ",ί:@8:1 3(8 "80ώ, ",':@ύ(8, 3( "80ώ &2έ:>., 2έ:> 31. &6ά%8B31. ':(=8,&2ί&. 3>, "B'3(6ί>,. Q&0ά4(,3". B(8 (=14(ύ, :" B0(:=(6ώ2",1 2"%%(,3'6ή 8B(3ί21:1 3(8 "80ώ &B(=8,&2ώ,(8, 3( "80ώ &2έ:>.. )' "B'B3ώ:"'. &83ώ, 3>, 30'ώ, B&0&4ό,3>, 2B(0(ύ,,& &,&%8+(ύ, 6&' ='&40&22&3'6ά. I'&,& 6ά,(82" 6ά3' 3έ3('(, 31 (14.9). E &0':3"0ή B%"80ά 31. (14.9) 8B(="'6,ύ"' 31, &Bό=(:1 :" =(%ά0'& 2'&. "80>6&3ά+":1. =(%&0ί>,, ",ώ 1 ="A'ά B%"80ά 31, &Bό=(:1 :" =(%ά0'& 2'&. "80>6&3ά+":1. :" "80ώ. J" ="=(2έ,". 3'. B0(:=(6ί". 4'& 31 2"%%(,3'6ή 3'2ή 31. ':(3'2ί&., 1 ="A'ά B%"80ά 31. (14.9) :8,"Bά4"3&' 2ί& &0,13'6ή :@έ:1 2"3&Aύ έ@(8:&. :8,&%%&42&3'6ή. ':(3'2ί&. 3(8 =(%&0ί(8 6&' 31. &Bό=(:1. :" =(%ά0'& 2'&. "80>6&3ά+":1. :" "80ώ. Ό:( 8P1%ό3"0( "ί,&' 3( S, 3ό:( 2'60ό3"01 "ί,&' 1 B0(:=(6ώ2",1 8B(3ί21:1 3(8 =(%&0ί(8 4'& ="=(2έ,". B0(:=(6ί". 4'& 31 2"%%(,3'6ή 3'2ή 31. ':(3'2ί&.. E (14.9) &,&B&0ί:3&3&' :3( *'ά40&22& 14.3, 3( (B(ί( H(1+ά :31, 6&3&,ό1:1 3(8 H0&@8@0ό,'(8 B0(:='(0':2(ύ 31. :8,&%%&42&3'6ή. ':(3'2ί&.. E B0(:=(6ώ2",1 &Bό=(:1 2'&. "80>6&3ά+":1. =(%&0ί>, :" =(%ά0'& B&0ί:3&3&' &Bό 31, 6ά+"31 40&22ή, 6&+ώ. 1 &Bό=(:1 &83ή "ί,&' &,"Aά031:1 &Bό 31 :8,&%%&42&3'6ή ':(3'2ί&. E B0(:=(6ώ2",1 &Bό=(:1 2'&. "80>6&3ά+":1. "80ώ :" =(%ά0'& B&0ί:3&3&' &Bό 31, 6&2Bύ%1 2" 31, &0,13'6ή 6%ί:1, 6&+ώ. ό:( 8P1%ό3"01 "ί,&' 1 30έ@(8:& :8,&%%&42&3'6ή ':(3'2ί&, 3ό:( 2'60ό3"01 "ί,&' 1 B0(:=(6ώ2",1 2"%%(,3'6ή &,&3ί21:1 3(8 "80ώ, 4'& ="=(2έ,". B0(:=(6ί". 4'& 31, 3'2ή 31. 2"%%(,3'6ή. :8,&%%&42&3'6ή. ':(3'2ί&.. E :8,&%%&42&3'6ή ':(3'2ί& ':(00(Bί&. B0(:='(0ίC"3&' :3( :12"ί( S1 :3( (B(ί( 1 B0(:=(6ώ2",1 &Bό=(:1 2'&. "80>6&3ά+":1.?*3,8ί<% (:" =(%ά0'&) ':(ύ3&' 2" 31, B0(:=(6ώ2",1 &Bό=(:1 2'&. "80>6&3ά+":1. #28ώ (:" =(%ά0'&). )B('&=ήB(3" ά%%1 ':(3'2ί& =", "ί,&' ':(3'2ί& ':(00(Bί&. 6&' B0(6&%"ί 8

9 ά2":& 6',ή:"'. &Bό 3( έ,&,ό2':2& :3( ά%%( B(8 (=14(ύ, :31 :8,&%%&42&3'6ή ':(3'2ί& ':(00(Bί&. S1. I'& B&0ά="'42&, :31, ':(3'2ί& S2 1 &Bό=(:1 6&3&+έ:">, :" "80ώ "ί,&' 2'60ό3"01 &Bό 31, &Bό=(:1 6&3&+έ:">, :" =(%ά0'&, 2" &B(3έ%":2&,& 2"3&6ί,1+(ύ, 6&3&+έ:"'. &Bό 3( "80ώ :3( =(%ά0'( 6&',& ",':@8+"ί 1 ':(3'2ί& 3(8 =(%&0ί(8. G,3ί+"3&, :31, ':(3'2ί& S3 1 &Bό=(:1 6&3&+έ:">, :" "80ώ "ί,&' 2"4&%ύ3"01 &Bό 31, &Bό=(:1 6&3&+έ:">, :" =(%ά0'&, 2" &B(3έ%":2&,& 2"3&6ί,1+(ύ, 6&3&+έ:"'. &Bό 3( =(%ά0'( :3( "80ώ 6&',& ",':@8+"ί 1 ':(3'2ί& 3(8 "80ώ. E 2ό,1 ':(00(Bί& "ί,&' :31, ':(3'2ί& S1. 73( *'ά40&22& 14.4 "A"3άC(82" 3'. "B'B3ώ:"'. 2'&. 2"ί>:1. 3(8 "B'3(6ί(8 3(8 =(%&0ί(8. G83ή 2"3&6',"ί 31, &Bό=(:1 3(8 =(%&0ί(8 B0(. 3& &0':3"0ά, 2" &B(3έ%":2& 31, ",ί:@8:1 31. :8,&%%&42&3'6ή. ':(3'2ί&. 3(8 "80ώ. 73( *'ά40&22& 14.5 "A"3άC(82" 3'. "B'B3ώ:"'. 2'&. 2"ί>:1. 3(8 "B'3(6ί(8 3(8 "80ώ. G83ή 2"3&6',"ί 31, 6&2Bύ%1 B0(:=(6ώ2",1. &Bό=(:1. 3(8 "80ώ B0(. 3& &0':3"0ά, 2" &B(3έ%":2& 31, B3ώ:1 31. :8,&%%&42&3'6ή. ':(3'2ί&. 3(8 "80ώ. Fέ%(., :3( *'ά40&22& 14.6 "A"3άC(82" 3'. "B'B3ώ:"'. 2'&. B0(:=(6ώ2",1. 2"%%(,3'6ή. B3ώ:1. 3(8 "80ώ (4'& B&0ά="'42& %ό4> 3>, =12(:'(,(2'6ώ, B0(H%12ά3>, 31. "80>Cώ,1.). G83ή 2"3&6',"ί 31, 6&2Bύ%1 B0(:=(6ώ2",1. &Bό=(:1. 3(8 "80ώ B0(. 3& &0':3"0ά, 2" &B(3έ%":2& 31, B3ώ: έ@(8:&. :8,&%%&42&3'6ή. ':(3'2ί&. 3(8 "80ώ. )' B0(:=(6ί". 4'& 2"%%(,3'6έ. 2"3&H(%έ. 31. ':(3'2ί&. "ί,&' H&:'6ό. B0(:='(0':3'6ό. B&0ά4>, έ@(8:&. :8,&%%&42&3'6ή. ':(3'2ί&.. )B('&=ήB(3" "Aέ%'A1 =12'(804"ί B0(:=(6ί". 4'& 2"%%(,3'6ή 2"3&H(%ή 31. ':(3'2ί&., (=14"ί ά2":& :" 2"3&H(%ή έ@(8:&. ':(3'2ί&. B0(. 31, ί='& 6&3"ύ+8,: /2@$,ά82030 )' :8,&%%&42&3'6έ. ':(3'2ί". B0(:='(0ίC(,3&' :3'. )' 680'ό3"0(' B&0ά4(,3". B(8 =0&:310'(B('(ύ,3&' :" &83έ. "ί,&' 30&B"C'6ά '=0ύ2&3&, B(%8"+,'6έ. "B'@"'0ή:"'., 21 '=0ύ2&3& 6&' 6",30'6έ. 30άB"C".. )' 30άB"C". έ@(8, έ,& 6",30'6ό 0ό%( 6&+ώ. ='"86(%ύ,(8, 3'. &,3&%%&4έ. 30&B"C'6ώ, 6&3&+έ:">, :" ='ά#(0&,(2ί:2&3&, B(8 &B(3"%(ύ, 3( 2"4&%ύ3"0( ό46( 3>, :8,&%%&4ώ, :31, &4(0ά :8,&%%ά42&3(.. E ='"+,ή. &4(0ά :8,&%%ά42&3(. "ί,&' :31, (8:ί& 2ί& ",(B('12έ,1 B&46ό:2'& &4(0ά B(8 %"'3(804"ί :@"=ό, 24 ώ0". 3( 24ώ0(. F( 2"4&%ύ3"0( 2έ0(. 3>, :8,&%%&4ώ, :" Aέ,( :8,ά%%&42& "ί,&' 30έ@(8:". :8,&%%&4έ., &%%ά 2"4ά%( 2έ0(. "ί,&' :82#>,ί". &,3&%%&4ώ, 6&' έ,& 2'60ό 2έ0(. B0(+":2'&6έ. :8,&%%&4έ.. 73'. :82#>,ί". &,3&%%&4ώ, 6&' 3'. B0(+":2'&6έ. 9

10 :8,&%%&4έ. :82#>,ί& 2"3&Aύ 3>, 2"0ώ, 4'& 2"%%(,3'6ή &,3&%%&4ή,(2':2ά3>, :" B0(6&+(0':2έ,1 3'2ή. G,3ί+"3&, (' :8,&%%&4έ. "66&+&0ίC(,3&' ά2":&.!&+ώ. 1 :8,&%%&42&3'6ή ':(3'2ί& "ί,&' 1 :@"3'6ή 3'2ή (,(2':2ά3>,), ( 6&+(0':2ό. 31. B0&42&3(B('"ί3&' όb>. 6&' 4'& ό%& E ':(00(Bί& :31, &4(0ά :8,&%%ά42&3(. &B&'3"ί "Aί:>:1 3>, &B(=ό:">, B(8 "ί,&' "6B"#0&:2έ,& :" ='&#(0"3'6ά,(2ί:2&3&, ό3&, (' &B(=ό:"'. 2"30(ύ,3&' :" 6(',ή Hά:1. G83ή "ί,&' 1 Hά:1 31. ':(=8,&2ί&. 3>, "B'3(6ί>,. I'& ="=(2έ,& "B'3ό6'& 6&3&+έ:">, "6B"#0&:2έ,>, :" ='ά#(0&,(2ί:2&3&, 6&' 4'& ="=(2έ,". B0(:=(6ί". 4'& 31 2"%%(,3'6ή "Aέ%'A1 31. ':(3'2ί&., 1 ':(=8,&2ί& 3>, "B'3(6ί>, B0(:='(0ίC"' 31, 30έ@(8:& :8,&%%&42&3'6ή ':(3'2ί&. I'& B&0ά="'42&, ό3&, 1 :" 6(',ή Hά:1 B0(:=(6ώ2",1 &Bό=(:1 6&3&+έ:">, :" "80ώ 8B"0H&ί,"' 31, B0(:=(6ώ2",1 &Bό=(:1 6&3&+έ:">, :" =(%ά0'&, 3ό3" 3( "80ώ &,&3'2ά3&' ά2":& &Bέ,&,3' :3( =(%ά0'(. 7" &,3ί+"31 B"0ίB3>:1 3( "80ώ 8B(3'2ά3&' &Bέ,&,3' :3( =(%ά0'(. J" 3& 8Bό%('B& ="=(2έ,& :3&+"0ά, 2ί& &ύa1:1 3>, "B'3(6ί>, 3(8 =(%&0ί(8 B0(6&%"ί &,&3ί21:1 3(8 =(%&0ί(8. Jί& &ύa1:1 3>, "B'3(6ί>, 3(8 "80ώ B0(6&%"ί &,&3ί21:1 3(8 "80ώ. Fέ%(., 2" 3& 8Bό%('B& ="=(2έ,& :3&+"0ά, 2ί& B0(:=(6ώ2",1 2"%%(,3'6ή &,&3ί21:1 (8B(3ί21:1) 3(8 "80ώ, (=14"ί ά2":& :" 30έ@(8:& &,&3ί21:1 (8B(3ί21:1) 3(8 "80ώ. 10

11 *'ά40&22& 14.1 E LAέ%'A :(3'2ί&. 3(8 L80ώ &Bέ,&,3' :3( *(%%ά0'( ($ &,ά ) $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 4/1/99$ 4/1/00$ 4/1/01$ 4/1/02$ 4/1/03$ 4/1/04$ 4/1/05$ 4/1/06$ 4/1/07$ 4/1/08$ 4/1/09$ 4/1/10$ 4/1/11$ 4/1/12$ 4/1/13$ Q14ή: L80>B&M6ή!",30'6ή F0άB"C& 11

12 *'ά40&22& 14.2 LB'3ό6'& EURIBOR 12

13 *'ά40&22& 14.2 F0'21,'&ί& LB'3ό6'& L80ώ 6&' *(%&0ί( # # # # # # 8.000# 6.000# 4.000# 2.000# 0.000# # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # $#ΗΠΑ# DM#&# # Q14ή: )04&,':2ό. )'6(,(2'6ή. 78,"04&:ί&. 6&' G,άB38A1. ())7G). 13

14 *'ά40&22& 14.3 ) Q0(:='(0':2ό ,&%%&42&3'6ή. 9:(3'2ί&. L80ώ 6&' *(%&0ί(8 Συναλλαγματική Ισοτιμία $/ Απόδοση Κατάθεσης σε Δολάρια S 2 S 1 Προσδοκώµενη Απόδοση Κατάθεσης σε Ευρώ S 3 i $ Ποσοστό Απόδοσης σε Δολάρια 14

15 *'ά40&22& 14.4 J"ί>:1 3>, LB'3(6ί>, *(%&0ί(8 Συναλλαγματική Ισοτιμία $/ Απόδοση Κατάθεσης σε Δολάρια S 2 S 1 Προσδοκώµενη Απόδοση Κατάθεσης σε Ευρώ i $ i $ Ποσοστό Απόδοσης σε Δολάρια 15

16 *'ά40&22& 14.5 J"ί>:1 3>, LB'3(6ί>, L80ώ Συναλλαγματική Ισοτιμία $/ Απόδοση Κατάθεσης σε Δολάρια S 1 Προσδοκώµενη Απόδοση Κατάθεσης σε Ευρώ S 2 i $ Ποσοστό Απόδοσης σε Δολάρια 16

17 *'ά40&22& 14.6 Q0(:=(6ώ2",1 J"%%(,3'6ή UB(3ί21:1 3(8 L80ώ Συναλλαγματική Ισοτιμία $/ Απόδοση Κατάθεσης σε Δολάρια S 1 Προσδοκώµενη Απόδοση Κατάθεσης σε Ευρώ S 2 i $ Ποσοστό Απόδοσης σε Δολάρια 17

18 X'H%'(40&#ί& Krugman P. and M. Obstfeld (2012), International Economics: Theory and Policy, Pearson, London. Mark Nelson (2001), International Macroeconomics and Finance, Blackwell, Oxford. 18