Title El Niño Modulations Over The Past Seven Centuries (Letter to the editor) Author(s) Li, J; Xie, S-P; Cook, ER; Morales, MS; Christie, D; Johnson, N; Chen, F; D'Arrigo, R; Fowler, A; Gou, X; Fang, K Citation Nature Climate Change, 213, v. 3 n. 9, p. 822-826 Issued Date 213 URL http://hdl.handle.net/1722/189524 Rights This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution- NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4. International License.
!"#$%&o#(o)*"a,%o-s#o/1#,2#3as,#s/-#4-,*1%s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`<YJX<6`*!<;<;!44O*!>>OO!?3%7(a'*!F9/3%G$%';!! H )'&(9'G(9$(!73!C3%79(E9(%(@(/]'!N!<'S&$(!P@(&'@*!X%AG$GDG(!73!<(%A39V'E$b%! c$(7$v39a$7'7!n!`399$g(9$(*!k'ed@g'7!73!<$3%e$'a!k(93ag'@3a!n!:3ed9a(a!j'gd9'@3a*! U%$V39A$7'7!FDAG9'@!73!<.$@3*!<'A$@@'!>BH*!d'@7$V$'*!<.$@3;!! I <3%G39!T(9!<@$S'G3!'%7!:3A$@$3%E3!:3A3'9E.!e<:f + *!<.$@3;! L?Y6!Q3N!)'&(9'G(9N!(T!g3AG39%!<.$%'MA!6%V$9(%S3%G'@!-NAG3S*!)'%a.(D!U%$V39A$GN*! )'%a.(d!h4oooo*!<.$%';! 1O -E.((@!(T!6%V$9(%S3%G*!`.3!U%$V39A$GN!(T!FDE=@'%7*!FDE=@'%7!1O+O*!J38!h3'@'%7;!,6S'$@i!j$%&'(k.=D;.=! 1
P1)%4,%-6#2ow#!"#$%&o89o*,21-#:s4%""a,%o-#;!$9:<#w%""#42a-6#w%,2#6"o=a"# wa1(%-6#%s#o>#-o1(o*s#%(3o1,a-4#,o#so4%,? 1-4 C#!$9:#D2%=%,s#4o-s%)1a="# -a,*1a"#/a1%a=%"%,?#a,#%-,1)4a)a"-4-,--%a"#,%(#s4a"s 5 C#I-s,1*(-,a"#14o1)s#a1#,oo#s2o1,#,o#),1(%-#w2,21#!$9:#2as#42a-6) 6 #w2%"#d%s,%-6#14o-s,1*4,%o-s# a1#o>,-#)/"o3)#w%,2o*,#a)h*a,#,1o3%4a"#14o1)sc#i1#w#31s-,#a#s/-- 4-,*1?#"o-6#!$9:#14o-s,1*4,%o-#=as)#o-#2222#,1-1%-6#421o-o"o6%s#>1o(#=o,2#,2#,1o3%4s#a-)#(%)-"a,%,*)s#%-#=o,2#2(%s321sC#K2#%-4"*s%o-#o>#,1o3%4a"#14o1)s# -a="s#*s#,o#a42%/#*-314)-,)#a44*1a4?l#as#a,,s,)#=?#2%62#4o11"a,%o-s#w%,2# H*a,o1%a"#Pa4%>%4#4o1a"s 7L8 #a-)#4o21-,#(o)*"a,%o-#o>#6"o=a"#,"4o--4,%o-s#,2a,# a1#4o-s%s,-,#w%,2#a-#%-)3-)-,#$o1,21-#i(%s321#,(31a,*1# 14o-s,1*4,%o- 9 C#:*1#)a,a#%-)%4a,#,2a,#!$9:#a4,%/%,?#%-#,2#"a,#,w-,%,2#4-,*1?# was#a-o(a"o*s"?#2%62#o/1#,2#3as,#s/-#4-,*1%sl#s*66s,%/#o>#a#1s3o-s#,o# o-6o%-6#6"o=a"#wa1(%-6c#c"%(a,#(o)"s#)%sa61#o-#,2#!$9:#1s3o-s#,o#6"o=a"# wa1(%-6 3L4 L#s*66s,%-6#,2a,#(a-?#(o)"s#*-)1s,%(a,#,2#s-s%,%/%,?#,o#1a)%a,%/# 31,*1=a,%o-sC#I""*s,1a,%-6#,2#1a)%a,%/#>>4,L#o*1#14o-s,1*4,%o-#1/a"s#1o=*s,#!$9:#1s3o-s#,o#"a16#,1o3%4a"#1*3,%o-sL#w%,2#a-o(a"o*s#4oo"%-6#%-#,2#as,- 4-,1a"#,1o3%4a"#Pa4%>%4#%-#,2#?a1#o>#1*3,%o-L#>o""ow)#=?#a-o(a"o*s#wa1(%-6#o-#?a1#a>,1C#:*1#o=s1/a,%o-s#31o/%)#41*4%a"#4o-s,1a%-,s#>o1#%(31o/%-6#4"%(a,# (o)"s#a-)#,2%1#>*,*1#31or4,%o-sc! 6@!J$l(!'%7!)'!J$l'!'93!G.3!8'9S!'%7!E(@7!R.'A3A!(T!G.3!6@!J$l(m-(DG.39%! YAE$@@'G$(%!^6J-Y_!ENE@3*!'%7!.'V3!R9(T(D%7!$SR'EGA!(%!8(9@78$73!83'G.39!'%7!E@$S'G3! G.9(D/.!@'9/3AE'@3*!T'993'E.$%/!R'GG39%A!=%(8%!'A!'GS(AR.39$E!G3@3E(%%3EG$(%A 1*+ ;!-G'G3 (TG.3'9G!E@$S'G3!S(73@A!7$A'/933!(%!G.3!%'GD93!(T!6J-Y!&3.'V$(9!$%!'!8'9S39!E@$S'G3 4*5 ;!! +
6J-Y!R9(R39G$3A*!ADE.!'A!'SR@$GD73*!T93nD3%EN*!'%7!'AA(E$'G37!G3@3E(%%3EG$(%!R'GG39%A*!.'V3!D%739/(%3!E(%A$739'&@3!%'GD9'@!V'9$'&$@$GN!'G!$%G3973E'7'@!^1OLO!N3'9A_!G(! E3%G3%%$'@!^o1OO!N3'9A_!G$S3!AE'@3A >*1O ;!X%AG9DS3%G'@!93E(97A*!'V'$@'&@3!T(9!(%@N!'&(DG!G.3! R'AG!1>O!N3'9A*!'93!%(G!%3'9@N!@(%/!3%(D/.!G(!E'RGD93!G.3!TD@@!&3.'V$(9!(T!6J-Y! V'9$'&$@$GN B ;!?D@G$R@3!R'@3(93E(%AG9DEG$(%A!(T!6J-Y!'EG$V$GN!'93!'V'$@'&@3! ^-DRR@3S3%G'9N!`'&@3!-1_*!&DG!G.3N!/3%39'@@N!E(V39!G.3!R'AG!T38!E3%GD9$3A!(9! %(%E(%G$%D(DA!T9'EG$(%A!(T!G.3!R'AG!S$@@3%%$DS*!'%7!S'%N!(T!G.3S!7(!%(G!93R93A3%G! 6J-Y!V'9$'&$@$GN!7$93EG@N*!7D3!G(!G.3$9!AG9(%/!73R3%73%E3!(%!3pG9'G9(R$E'@!R9(pN!93E(97A;! `(!'7793AA!G.3A3!E.'@@3%/3A*!83!E(SR$@3!'%7!AN%G.3A$a3!++++!G9339$%/!E.9(%(@(/$3A!T9(S! &(G.!G.3!G9(R$EA!'%7!S$7@'G$GD73A!(T!&(G.!.3S$AR.393A!G(!93E(%AG9DEG!6J-Y!V'9$'&$@$GN! T(9!G.3!R'AG!A3V3%!E3%GD9$3A;!cN!E(%A(@$7'G$%/!E(.393%G!A$/%'@A!$%!G9339$%/A!T9(S!ADE.! 7$V39A3!93/$(%A*!83!'$S!G(!93R93A3%G!6J-Y!V'9$'&$@$GN!S(93!'EED9'G3@N;!! YD9!G9339$%/!%3G8(9=!$A!E(SR(A37!(T!++++!E.9(%(@(/$3A!T9(S!FA$'*!J38!h3'@'%7*! '%7!J(9G.!'%7!-(DG.!FS39$E'!^-DRR@3S3%G'9N!`'&@3!-+_;!YT!G.3A3*!AG9(%/!6J-Y!A$/%'@A! '93!T(D%7!$%!G933!9$%/A!T9(S!A3V3%!93/$(%A*!$%E@D7$%/!G8(!$%!G.3!G9(R$EA!^?'9$G$S3! <(%G$%3%G!'%7!-(DG.!FS39$E'%!F@G$R@'%(_*!G.933!$%!G.3!S$7@'G$GD73!J(9G.39%!W3S$AR.393! ^<3%G9'@!FA$'*!-(DG.83AG!J(9G.!FS39$E'*!'%7!G.3!1'E$T$E!J(9G.83AGm`3p'A?3p$E(! ^`3p?3p_!93/$(%_*!'%7!G8(!$%!G.3!S$7@'G$GD73!-(DG.39%!W3S$AR.393!^%(9G.39%!J38! h3'@'%7!'%7!83age3%g9'@!f9/3%g$%'_!^k$/;!1'_;!g3!3pg9'eg!93/$(%'@!v'9$'&$@$gn!t9(s!g933! 9$%/A!&N!3$G.39!'!R9$%E$R'@!E(SR(%3%GA!'%'@NA$A!(9!G.3!73V3@(RS3%G!(T!'!93/$(%'@! E.9(%(@(/N!^-DRR@3S3%G'9N!?3G.(7A_;!`.3!93AD@G'%G!A3V3%!G$S3!A39$3A*!(%3!T9(S!3'E.! 93/$(%*!A39V3!'A!G.3!&'A$A!T(9!(D9!6J-Y!93E(%AG9DEG$(%;!`.3!T$9AG!R9$%E$R'@!E(SR(%3%G! ^1<1_!(T!G.3!A3V3%!G$S3!A39$3A*!E(V39$%/!G.3!R39$(7!14O11LL+!'%7!3pR@'$%$%/!+B;Bq!(T!! 4
G.3!G(G'@!V'9$'%E3*!$A!.$/.@N!E(993@'G37!8$G.!G9(R$E'@!1'E$T$E!A3'!AD9T'E3!G3SR39'GD93A 11! ^--`Ar!K$/;!1'_;!1<1!E(993@'G3A!.$/.@N!8$G.!G.3!R9$(9!J(V3S&39#'%D'9N!^JC#_!J$l(4;5! $%73p!^9!s!O;IO_!7D9$%/!1IH11LL+;!`.3!E(993@'G$(%!8$G.!G.3!`9'%AJ$l(!X%73p 1+ *!'! S3'AD93!(T!G.3!a(%'@!--`!/9'7$3%G*!$A!AG'G$AG$E'@@N!A$/%$T$E'%G!&DG!SDE.!@(839!^9!s!O;54_*! AD//3AG$%/!G.'G!G.3!G933!9$%/A!'93!S(AG!A3%A$G$V3!G(!3'AGE3%G9'@!G9(R$E'@!1'E$T$E!--`! '%(S'@$3A!$%AG3'7!(T!G.3$9!3'AG83AG!/9'7$3%G;!`.393T(93*!83!73V3@(R!'!93E(%AG9DEG$(%!T(9! G.3!E'%(%$E'@!6J-Y!V'9$'&$@$GN!^?3G.(7A!'%7!-DRR@3S3%G'9N!K$/;!-1_*!'A!93R93A3%G37!&N! G.3!J$l(4;5!$%73p!^K$/;!1&_;!! YD9!93E(%AG9DEG$(%!$A!.$/.@N!E(993@'G37!8$G.!3p$AG$%/!6J-Y!93E(97A*!8.3G.39!G.3$9! $%RDG!7'G'!'93!E(SR@3G3@N!$%73R3%73%G!(9!8$G.!'!T38!(V39@'RR$%/!AD&A3GA!^-DRR@3S3%G'9N! `'&@3!-1_;!<(SR'937!8$G.!(G.39!93E(%AG9DEG$(%A*!(D9A!$%E(9R(9'G3A!G933!9$%/A!T9(S!G8(! G9(R$E'@!93/$(%A!G.'G!.'V3!.$/.39!83$/.GA!$%!G.3!6SR$9$E'@!Y9G.(/(%'@!KD%EG$(%!^6YK_! G.'%!G.3!3pG9'G9(R$E'@!R339A!^-DRR@3S3%G'9N!`'&@3!-+_*!@3'7$%/!G(!'!9(D/.@N!1Oq!$%E93'A3! $%!3pR@'$%37!$%AG9DS3%G'@!6J-Y!V'9$'%E3!^-DRR@3S3%G'9N!`'&@3!-1_;!`(!TD9G.39!V39$TN! G.3!93E(%AG9DEG$(%*!83!E(SR'93!$G!8$G.!$%73R3%73%G!93E(97A!T9(S!G.3!3nD'G(9$'@!1'E$T$Ei! ^1_!`.3!-(DG.39%!YAE$@@'G$(%!X%73p 14!^-YX_!$A!'!AG'%7'97$a37!$%73p!(T!A3'!@3V3@!R93AAD93! 7$TT393%E3!&3G833%!`'.$G$!'%7!C'98$%*!FDAG9'@$'!^K$/;!1'_*!'%7!93R93A3%GA!G.3!'GS(AR.39$E! E(SR(%3%G!(T!6J-Y;!YD9!93E(%AG9DEG$(%!E(993@'G3A!'G!O;BH!^R!t!O;OO1_!8$G.!G.3!&(93'@! 8$%G39!^-3RG3S&39K3&9D'9N_!-YX!T(9!G.3$9!E(SS(%!R39$(7!1IBH+OO>!^K$/;!1E_*!E@(A3!G(! G.3!E(993@'G$(%!&3G833%!$%AG9DS3%G'@!J$l(4;5!--`!'%7!-YX!$%7$E3A!T(9!G.3!A'S3!R39$(7!^9! s!o;i4_;!^+_!yd9!93e(%ag9deg$(%!$a!a$/%$t$e'%g@n!e(993@'g37!8$g.!s(739%!e(9'@!93e(97a!$%! G.3!E3%G9'@!G9(R$E'@!1'E$T$Ei!9!s!O;>H!^R!t!O;OO1_!'G!?'$'%'!FG(@@ H!T(9!1I511LL5!^K$/;!17_*! '%7!9!s!O;>4!^R!t!O;OO1_!'G!1'@SN9'!XA@'%7 I!T(9!1IIH1LLI!^K$/;!13_;!FTG39!'7jDAG$%/!! 5
93@$EG!E(9'@!Um`.!7'G3A!8$G.$%!G.3!'%'@NG$E'@!399(9!8$%7(8A > *!83!T$%7!G.'G!A$/%$T$E'%G! E(993@'G$(%A!&3G833%!(D9!93E(%AG9DEG$(%!'%7!1'@SN9'!E(9'@A!.'V3!R39A$AG37!G.9(D/.(DG!G.3! R'AG!A3V3%!E3%GD9$3A!^K$/;!13_;!`.3!'&(V3!'/933S3%GA!'93!93S'9='&@3!$%!G.'G!G.3A3!R9(pN! 93E(97A!'93!E(SR@3G3@N!$%73R3%73%G*!$%7$E'G$%/!.$/.!T$73@$GN!(T!(D9!93E(%AG9DEG$(%!(V39! G.3!R'AG!A3V3%!E3%GD9$3A;!! `.3!93E(%AG9DEG37!6J-Y!$%73p!7$AR@'NA!S'9=37!V'9$'G$(%A!'G!$%G39'%%D'@!G(! $%G3973E'7'@!G$S3!AE'@3A!(V39!G.3!R'AG!A3V3%!E3%GD9$3A!^K$/;!1T_;!`.3!SD@G$G'R39!S3G.(7 15! ^?`?_!AR3EG9'@!'%'@NA$A!93V3'@A!G.'G!A$/%$T$E'%G!6J-Y!R39$(7$E$G$3A!T'@@!8$G.$%! $%G39'%%D'@!^+H!N3'9A_!'%7!73E'7'@!^I14!N3'9A_!&'%7A*!93AR3EG$V3@N!^-DRR@3S3%G'9N!K$/;! -+'_;!`.3!$%G39'%%D'@!ENE@3A!'93!(&A39V37!T(9!G.3!$%AG9DS3%G'@!39'*!'!R39$(7!8.3%!G.3! 73E'7'@!ENE@3A!'93!@3AA!R9(%(D%E37!^-DRR@3S3%G'9N!K$/;!-4_;!`.3!G$S3AR'E3!8'V3@3G! '%'@NA$A 1>!A.(8A!G.'G!G.3!$%G39'%%D'@!V'9$'&$@$GN!.'A!R39A$AG37!G.9(D/.(DG!G.3!R'AG!A3V3%! E3%GD9$3A*!8.$@3!G.3!73E'7'@!V'9$'&$@$GN!83'=3%A!7D9$%/!S(AG!(T!G.3!A$pG33%G.!'%7! G83%G$3G.!E3%GD9N!^-DRR@3S3%G'9N!K$/;!-+&_;!?'9=37!73E'7'@!V'9$'&$@$GN!$A!'@A(!8$73@N! T(D%7!$%!X%7(1'E$T$E!E(9'@A!$%!G.3!@'G3!%$%3G33%G.!E3%GD9N*!8$G.!$GA!AR'G$'@!R'GG39%!E@(A3@N! 93A3S&@$%/!G.'G!(T!$%G39'%%D'@!V'9$'&$@$GN 1B ;!`(/3G.39!G.3A3!93AD@GA!AD//3AG!G.'G!73E'7'@! V'9$'&$@$GN!$A!'!A$/%$T$E'%G!E(SR(%3%G!(T!6J-Y!ANAG3S!'%7!$A!D%7393AG$S'G37!&N! $%AG9DS3%G'@!7'G';!g3!.'V3!$%V3AG$/'G37!G.3!93@'G$(%A.$R!&3G833%!G.3!73E'7'@!V'9$'&$@$GN! '%7!AD%AR(G!%DS&39!DA$%/!'!E9(AA8'V3@3G!G9'%AT(9S!^-DRR@3S3%G'9N!?3G.(7A_;!`.393!$A! '!AG9(%/!AR3EG9'@!E(.393%E3!&DG!G.3!R.'A3!V'9$3A!&N!1IOu!(V39!G.3!E(D9A3!(T!G.3$9!E(SS(%! R39$(7!^-DRR@3S3%G'9N!K$/;!-5_;!XT!G.3!11N3'9!A(@'9!ENE@3!$A!@$%=37!G(!73E'7'@!6J-Y! V'9$'&$@$GN*!G.3%!G.3!S3E.'%$AS!SDAG!&3!'&@3!G(!'EE(SS(7'G3!S3'%739$%/!1IOu!R.'A3! 93V39A'@A!G.9(D/.!G$S3*!'%7!.'A!%(G!N3G!&33%!73G39S$%37!G.9(D/.!E@$S'G3!S(73@$%/!AGD7$3A;!! >
X%AG3'7*!73E'7'@!6J-Y!V'9$'&$@$GN!S(93!@$=3@N!93AD@GA!T9(S!$%G39%'@!7N%'S$EA;!! `3SR(9'@!3V(@DG$(%!(T!6J-Y!V'9$'%E3!93R93A3%G37!&N!(D9!93E(%AG9DEG$(%!$A!S(AG! E(%A$AG3%G!8$G.!G.'G!A.(8%!&N!G.3!G8(!G9(R$E'@!93E(97A!^-DRR@3S3%G'9N!K$/;!->_;!`.3! SDGD'@!'/933S3%G!&3G833%!G.3!G8(!$%73R3%73%G!G9(R$E'@!93E(97A!AD//3AGA!G.'G!(D9! 93E(%AG9DEG$(%!93R93A3%GA!6J-Y!V'9$'%E3!S(93!'EED9'G3@N!G.'%!R93V$(DA!(%3A!G.'G! /3%39'@@N!7(!%(G!$%E(9R(9'G3!G9(R$E'@!93E(97A;!YV39'@@!G.3!93E(%AG9DEG37!6J-Y!V'9$'%E3! 8'A!83'=!$%!G.3!3'9@N!)$GG@3!XE3!F/3!^)XF_!(T!14OOA1>>OA*!$%E93'A37!7D9$%/!G.3!@'G3!)XF! (T!1>>OA1IIOA*!'%7!&3E'S3!D%DAD'@@N!.$/.!'TG39!G.3!1IIOA!^K$/;!+'_;!`.3!93E(%AG9DEG$(%! '@A(!3p.$&$GA!@'9/39!V'9$'%E3!G.'%!G.3!$%AG9DS3%G'@!G'9/3G!$%!G.3!3'9@N!G83%G$3G.!E3%GD9N;! `.3!3SR$9$E'@!93E(%AG9DEG$(%A!S'N!D%7393AG$S'G3!--`!V'9$'&$@$GN!7D3!G(!G.3!@'E=!(T! (&A39V'G$(%A!$%!G.'G!R39$(7 + ;!! `.3!93E(%AG9DEG37!6J-Y!V'9$'%E3!3p.$&$GA!AD&AG'%G$'@!S(7D@'G$(%!'G!$%G3973E'7'@!G(! E3%G3%%$'@!G$S3!AE'@3A!^K$/;!+'_;!-DE.!S(7D@'G$(%*!.(83V39*!S'N!'9$A3!AG(E.'AG$E'@@N!'%7! G.DA!S'N!%(G!&3!$%7$E'G$V3!(T!7N%'S$EA!8$G.!$%G9$%A$E!$%G3973E'7'@!G$S3!AE'@3A 1H*1I ;!g3! 3AG$S'G3!G.3!3pR3EG37!9'%/3!(T!V'9$'&$@$GN!(T!41N9!9D%%$%/!&$83$/.G!V'9$'%E3!G.'G!S'N! '9$A3!AG(E.'AG$E'@@N!G.9(D/.!'!?(%G3!<'9@(!'RR9('E.!^-DRR@3S3%G'9N!?3G.(7A_;!`.3! 93AD@GA!$%7$E'G3!G.'G!G.3!$%G3973E'7'@!S(7D@'G$(%!(T!6J-Y!V'9$'%E3!&3T(93!1LOO!S'N!'9$A3! AG(E.'AG$E'@@N!^K$/;!+'_;!:D%%$%/!V'9$'%E3!7D9$%/!SDE.!(T!G.3!G83%G$3G.!E3%GD9N*!.(83V39*! 3pE337A!G.3!L>q!E(%T$73%E3!$%G39V'@!T(9!AG(E.'AG$E!V'9$'G$(%A*!AD//3AG$%/!G.'G!G.3!93E3%G! 3%.'%E3S3%G!(T!6J-Y!V'9$'%E3!$A!7D3!G(!E.'%/3A!$%!G.3!&'E=/9(D%7!AG'G3!ADE.!'A!G.3! A3ED@'9!R(A$G$V3!G93%7!$%!G9(R$E'@!--`A 1L ;!<@$S'G3!S(73@A!7$A'/933!(%!G.3!6J-Y!93AR(%A3! G(!/@(&'@!8'9S$%/*!AR@$GG$%/!&3G833%!3%.'%E37!'%7!7'SR37!V'9$'&$@$GN 4*5 ;!YD9! (&A39V'G$(%A!AD//3AG!G.'G!S(73@A!8$G.!'!7'SR37!93AR(%A3!S'N!D%7393AG$S'G3!G.3!! B
A3%A$G$V$GN!(T!6J-Y!G(!$%E93'A$%/!'%G.9(R(/3%$E!9'7$'G$V3!T(9E$%/*!'@G.(D/.!A$/%$T$E'%G! 6J-Y!E.'%/3A!S'N!AG$@@!&3!7$TT$ED@G!G(!73G3EG!T(9!R39$(7A!(T!@3AA!G.'%!'!E3%GD9N B ;! :3/'97@3AA*!'!S(93!G.(9(D/.!'GG9$&DG$(%!(T!$%G3973E'7'@!6J-Y!V'9$'&$@$GN!$%!TDGD93!8(9=! 93nD$93A!G.3!E(S&$%'G$(%!(T!73V3@(RS3%GA!$%!G.3(9N*!E(DR@37!E@$S'G3!S(73@!A$SD@'G$(%A*! '%7!@(%/!93E(97A!(T!6J-Y!V'9$'&$@$GN!@$=3!(D9A;!!! C3G39S$%$%/!G.3!AG93%/G.!(T!6J-Y!G3@3E(%%3EG$(%A!$A!E9DE$'@!T(9!E@$S'G3!T(93E'AGA! (DGA$73!G.3!G9(R$E'@!1'E$T$E;!X%AG9DS3%G'@!93E(97A!A.(8!AD&AG'%G$'@!S(7D@'G$(%!(T!6J-Y! G3@3E(%%3EG$(%A!(%!$%G3973E'7'@!G$S3!AE'@3A!7D9$%/!G.3!G83%G$3G.!E3%GD9N 1O*!+O *!&DG!G.3! E'DA3!(T!ADE.!S(7D@'G$(%!93S'$%A!D%E@3'9;!W393!83!E'@ED@'G3!41N3'9!9D%%$%/! E(993@'G$(%A!&3G833%!G.3!93E(%AG9DEG$(%!'%7!3'E.!$%RDG!A39$3A!G(!'AA3AA!G.3!AG'G$(%'9$GN!(T! 6J-Y!G3@3E(%%3EG$(%A!(V39!G.3!R'%1'E$T$E!93/$(%A!T(9!G.3!R'AG!A3V3%!E3%GD9$3A;!`.3! 6J-Y!$%T@D3%E3!$A!S(AG!9(&DAG!(V39!G.3!?'9$G$S3!<(%G$%3%G!^K$/;!+&_*!R39.'RA!%(G! AD9R9$A$%/@N!'A!$G!$A!'!E3%G39!(T!'EG$(%!T(9!6J-Y!8$G.!AG9(%/!9'$%T'@@!V'9$'&$@$GN;!`.3! 6J-Y!G3@3E(%%3EG$(%!$A!'@A(!9(&DAG!(V39!<3%G9'@!FA$'*!3pE3RG!T(9!S'9=37!937DEG$(%! 8$G.$%!G.3!?'D%739!S$%$SDS!(T!1BBOA1HOOA!^K$/;!+&_;!?'9=37!937DEG$(%!$%!G.3!AG93%/G.! (T!6J-Y!G3@3E(%%3EG$(%A!7D9$%/!G.3!?'D%739!S$%$SDS!$A!'@A(!T(D%7!(V39!G.3!-(DG.! FS39$E'%!F@G$R@'%(!'%7!%(9G.39%!J38!h3'@'%7!^K$/;!+7_*!&DG!%(G!(V39!83AG39%!J(9G.! FS39$E'!^K$/;!+E_;!YV39'@@*!6J-Y!G3@3E(%%3EG$(%A!'93!9(&DAG!(V39!G.3!-(DG.!FS39$E'%! F@G$R@'%(!'%7!-(DG.83AG!J(9G.!FS39$E'!T(9!S(AG!(T!G.3!R'AG!A3V3%!E3%GD9$3A*!&DG!V'9N! AD&AG'%G$'@@N!(V39!%(9G.39%!J38!h3'@'%7!'%7!G.3!1'E$T$E!J(9G.83AGm`3p?3p!93/$(%!^K$/A;! +E!'%7!+7_;!:3@'G$V3!G(!G.3!6J-Y!V'9$'%E3!G$S3!A39$3A*!83!T$%7!G.'G!6J-Y! G3@3E(%%3EG$(%A!(V39!G.3!R'%1'E$T$E!93/$(%A!'93!/3%39'@@N!AG9(%/!^83'=_!8.3%!G.3!6J-Y! V'9$'%E3!$A!.$/.!^@(8_*!8$G.!3'E.!.$/.m@(8V'9$'%E3!3R(E.!@'AG$%/!T(9!A3V39'@!73E'73A!! H
^K$/A;!+'+7_;!)$=38$A3*!83!T$%7!G.'G!6J-Y!G3@3E(%%3EG$(%A!(%!J(9G.39%!W3S$AR.393! ^JW_!G3SR39'GD93!'93!@$%=37!G(!E.'%/3A!$%!6J-Y!V'9$'%E3!^-DRR@3S3%G'9N!?3G.(7A!'%7! K$/;!-B_;!`.3A3!E(%E(S$G'%G!E.'%/3A!G.9(D/.(DG!G.3!R'AG!A3V3%!E3%GD9$3A!$%7$E'G3!G.'G!G.3! 6J-Y!3TT3EGA!(%!3pG9'G9(R$E'@!E@$S'G3!'93!S(7D@'G37!&N!6J-Y!V'9$'%E3!'G!$%G3973E'7'@! G(!E3%G3%%$'@!G$S3!AE'@3A;! 6pR@(A$V3!V(@E'%$E!39DRG$(%A!'TT3EG!G.3!E@$S'G3!&N!$%j3EG$%/!'39(A(@A!$%G(!G.3! 'GS(AR.393 +1 *!&DG!G.3$9!3TT3EG!(%!6J-Y!93S'$%A!D%E39G'$%*!8$G.!$%E(%E@DA$V3!93AD@GA!T9(S! A.(9G!(&A39V'G$(%A +1+4!'%7!E(%G9'7$EG(9N!93AD@GA!T9(S!S(73@!A$SD@'G$(%A +5+B ;!W393!83!DA3! -DR39R(A37!6R(E.!F%'@NA$A ++!^-6F_!G(!'AA3AA!G.3$9!93@'G$(%A.$R!T(9!G.3!R'AG!A3V3%! E3%GD9$3A;!g3!3SR@(N!'!.$AG(9$E'@m/3(@(/$E'@!93E(97&'A37!d(@E'%$E!6pR@(A$V$GN!X%73p +H! ^d6x_*!8.$e.!s(93!'eed9'g3@n!93e(97a!39drg$(%!@(e'g$(%!g.'%!(g.39!$%7$e3a!739$v37!t9(s! R(@'9!$E3!E(93!E.3S$AG9N!^-DRR@3S3%G'9N!`'&@3!-5_;!UA$%/!'!A39$3A!(T!A3%A$G$V$GN!G3AGA*!G.3! 93AD@GA!$%7$E'G3!'!9(&DAG!6J-Y!93AR(%A3!G(!@'9/3!G9(R$E'@!39DRG$(%A!^d6X!v!5r!++!3V3%GA_*! &DG!%(G!G(!S37$DS!39DRG$(%A!^d6X!s!5r!BI!3V3%GA_!^-DRR@3S3%G'9N!`'&@3A!->_;!K(9!@'9/3! G9(R$E'@!39DRG$(%A*!$SS37$'G3!E((@$%/!G3%7A!G(!(EED9!$%!G.3!3'AGE3%G9'@!G9(R$E'@!1'E$T$E!$%! G.3!N3'9!(T!39DRG$(%!^G!s!O_*!T(@@(837!&N!'%(S'@(DA!8'9S$%/!(%3!N3'9!'TG39!^K$/;!4'_;!Y%! 'V39'/3*!G.3!J$l(4;5!--`!7$TT393%E3!T9(S!N3'9!GsO!G(!N3'9!Gw1!'S(D%GA!G(!o1;Ox<*! AG'G$AG$E'@@N!A$/%$T$E'%G!'G!G.3!O;O1!@3V3@*!&'A37!(%!'!G8(G'$@37!AGD73%GMA!GG3AG;!! 193V$(DA!AGD7$3A!DA$%/!A.(9G39!'%7!@3AA!93@$'&@3!6J-Y!93E(%AG9DEG$(%A!N$3@737!(%@N!'! V'/D3!R$EGD93!(T!'!SD@G$N3'9!8'9S$%/!93AR(%A3!G(!'!@'9/3!G9(R$E'@!39DRG$(% +++> ;!YD9! '%'@NA$A*!&'A37!(%!'!@(%/39!'%7!S(93!'EED9'G3!6J-Y!93E(%AG9DEG$(%*!93V3'@A!'!SDE.! 9$E.39!3V(@DG$(%;!F%!$%G39S37$'G3!E@$S'G3!S(73@!A$SD@'G3A!G.3!AD&A3nD3%G!8'9S$%/! G.9(D/.!'%!(E3'%!7N%'S$E'@!G.39S(AG'G!S3E.'%$AS +I *!&DG!%(G!G.3!$%$G$'@!E((@$%/!! I
93AR(%A3 +5*+> ;!F!93E3%G!AGD7N!DA$%/!'!TD@@N!E(DR@37!/3%39'@!E$9ED@'G$(%!S(73@!^P<?_! AD//3AGA!'!E(%ED993%G!E((@$%/!93AR(%A3!G(!V(@E'%$E!T(9E$%/ +B ;!YD9!(&A39V'G$(%A!%(8!(TT39! ADRR(9G!T(9!G.3!P<?!93AD@G*!AD//3AG$%/!G.'G!$%!'77$G$(%!G(!G.3!G.39S(AG'G!S3E.'%$AS*! (G.39!7N%'S$E'@!R9(E3AA3A!ADE.!'A!a(%'@!V'9$'G$(%A!$%!--`!7'SR$%/!'93!$SR(9G'%G!T(9! A$SD@'G$%/!G.3!TD@@!93AR(%A3!(T!6J-Y!G(!9'7$'G$V3!T(9E$%/!R39GD9&'G$(%A;! C$7!@'9/3!G9(R$E'@!39DRG$(%A!E'DA3!S($AGD93!3pG93S3A!93E(9737!$%!G9339$%/A!&N!7$93EG! 9'7$'G$V3!T(9E$%/!(9!G.9(D/.!G.3!3TT3EGA!(%!6J-Yy!`(!'%A839!G.$A!nD3AG$(%*!83!E(SR'93! V(@E'%$E'@@N$%7DE37!S($AGD93!'%(S'@N!R'GG39%A!G(!G.(A3!(T!6J-Y;!`.3!E@(A3! 93A3S&@'%E3!(T!S($AGD93!R'GG39%!'G!N3'9!GsO!^Gw1_!G(!G.'G!(T!)'!J$l'!^6@!J$l(_!R9(V$73A! AG9(%/!3V$73%E3!G.'G!G9(R$E'@!39DRG$(%A!'TT3EG!/@(&'@!S($AGD93!@'9/3@N!G.9(D/.!G.3! $%T@D3%E3!(%!6J-Y!^K$/A;!4&43_;!! X%!ADSS'9N*!(D9!G9339$%/!&'A37!6J-Y!93E(%AG9DEG$(%!T(9!G.3!R'AG!A3V3%!E3%GD9$3A! 93R93A3%GA!'!S'j(9!$SR9(V3S3%G!(V39!R93V$(DA!3TT(9GA*!S'73!R(AA$&@3!&N!$%E@D7$%/! 93E(97A!T9(S!G.3!G9(R$EA;!YD9!93AD@GA!A.(8!S'9=37!$%G3973E'7'@E3%G3%%$'@!V'9$'G$(%A!$%! 6J-Y!'SR@$GD73!G.'G!S(7D@'G3!$GA!3TT3EGA!(%!3pG9'G9(R$E'@!E@$S'G3*!AD//3AG$%/!G.'G!6J-Y! V'9$'%E3*!9'G.39!G.'%!'@G39%'G$V3!S3E.'%$ASA!ADE.!'A!S$7@'G$GD73!8'V3/D$73! S(7D@'G$(% +L *!$A!'!R9$S'9N!E(%G9(@!(T!G.3!S(7D@'G$(%A;!Y%!@(%/39!G$S3!AE'@3A*!6J-Y! V'9$'%E3!$A!@(8!$%!G.3!3'9@N!)XF!R39$(7!'%7!.$/.!$%!G.3!G83%G$3G.!E3%GD9N;!`.3!3@3V'G37! 6J-Y!V'9$'&$@$GN!$%!93E3%G!73E'73A!$A!D%R93E373%G37!(V39!G.3!R'AG!A3V3%!E3%GD9$3A*! AD//3AG$%/!'!93AR(%A3!G(!$%E93'A37!'%G.9(R(/3%$E!9'7$'G$V3!T(9E$%/;!<@$S'G3!S(73@A! 7$A'/933!(%!G.3!93AR(%A3!G(!/@(&'@!8'9S$%/*!AD//3AG$%/!G.'G!S'%N!(T!G.3S!S'N! D%7393AG$S'G3!6J-Y!A3%A$G$V$GN!G(!9'7$'G$V3!R39GD9&'G$(%A;!g.$@3!6J-Y!$A!'%!$%G39%'@! S(73!(T!G.3!E(DR@37!ANAG3S*!(D9!'%'@NA$A!8$G.!'!@'9/3!A'SR@3!A$a3!93V3'@A!'!9(&DAG!! L
93AR(%A3!G(!@'9/3!G9(R$E'@!V(@E'%$E!39DRG$(%A;!)'9/3!G9(R$E'@!39DRG$(%A!T(9E3!G.3!1'E$T$E! $SS37$'G3@N!$%G(!'%!'%(S'@(DA!E((@$%/!AG'G3*!T(@@(837!&N!'%(S'@(DA!8'9S$%/!$%!G.3! %3pG!N3'9;!`.3!93AR(%A3!G(!G.3!11N3'9!A(@'9!ENE@3!$A!$%E(%A$AG3%G!$%!R.'A3!(V39!G.3!93E(97*! R(AA$&@N!&3E'DA3!(T!83'=!T(9E$%/;!`.$A!D%739@$%3A!G.3!E(SR@3p$GN!(T!6J-Y!7N%'S$EA!'%7! E'@@A!T(9!TD9G.39!$%V3AG$/'G$(%A!$%G(!G.3!A3%A$G$V$GN!G(!G.3!S'/%$GD73!'%7!G$S3AE'@3 1L!(T! 9'7$'G$V3!T(9E$%/;!:3/'97@3AA*!G.3!9(&DAG!6J-Y!93AR(%A3!G(!V(@E'%$E!T(9E$%/*!'%7!$%! R'9G$ED@'9!$GA!3V(@DG$(%!$%!G$S3*!(TT39A!'%!3pE3@@3%G!G3AG!&37!T(9!E@$S'G3!S(73@A!$T!G.3N!'93! G(!N$3@7!TDGD93!R9(j3EG$(%A!8$G.!E(%T$73%E3;!! S,2o)sT# g3!73v3@(r37!'%!6j-y!93e(%ag9deg$(%!8$g.!'!83@@g3ag37!1<!93/93aa$(%!r9(e37d93!^a33! -DRR@3S3%G'9N!?3G.(7A_;!`.3!1<1!(T!G.3!G9339$%/!93E(97A!8'A!93G'$%37!G(!&D$@7!'!@$%3'9! 93/93AA$(%!S(73@!&N!E'@$&9'G$%/!(%!G.3!JC#!J$l(4;5!$%73p!7D9$%/!1IH11LL+;!`.3! 93E(%AG9DEG$(%!8'A!3pG3%737!G(!+OO>!8$G.!'!%3AG37!'RR9('E.*!8$G.!G8(!$G39'G$V3! 93/93AA$(%!%3AGA!3%7$%/!$%!+OO4!^A$p!$%RDG!A39$3A_!'%7!+OO>!^T$V3!$%RDG!A39$3A_;!g3! R39T(9S37!9$/(9(DA!E'@$&9'G$(%!'%7!V39$T$E'G$(%!G3AGA*!'%7!G.3!93AD@GA!$%7$E'G3!A$/%$T$E'%G! A=$@@!$%!'@@!G.933!93/93AA$(%!S(73@A!^-DRR@3S3%G'9N!K$/;!-1!'%7!`'&@3!-4_;!`.3!T$%'@! 93E(%AG9DEG$(%!8'A!'E.$3V37!&N!S39/$%/!G.3!G.933!93/93AA$(%A!G(/3G.39*!8$G.!G.3$9!S3'%! '%7!V'9$'%E3!'7jDAG37!G(!&3!G.3!A'S3!'A!G.3!14O11LL+!%3AG;!`.3!T$%'@!93E(%AG9DEG$(%! 'EE(D%GA!T(9!B4;>q!(T!$%AG9DS3%G'@!J$l(4;5!--`!V'9$'%E3!7D9$%/!1IH11LL+!^K$/;!1&_;!!!!! 1O
U>1-4s# 1;!?E1.'73%*!?;!#;*!h3&$'=*!-;!6;!z!P@'%Ga*!?;!W;!6J-Y!'A!'%!$%G3/9'G$%/!E(%E3RG!$%! 3'9G.!AE$3%E3;!"#$%&#%!314L!1H5OZ1H5>!^+OOB_;!! +;! C3A39*!<;*!F@3p'%739*!?;!F;*!2$3*!-;1;!z!1.$@@$RA*!F;!-;!-3'!AD9T'E3!G3SR39'GD93! V'9$'&$@$GNi!1'GG39%A!'%7!S3E.'%$ASA;!'&&()!*%+)!,-.$&%!"#$;!2L!11>Z154!^+O1O_;! 4;! PD$@N'97$*!6;!%/!-;!U%739AG'%7$%/!6@!J$l(!$%!(E3'%Z'GS(AR.393!P3%39'@!<$9ED@'G$(%!?(73@Ai!19(/93AA!'%7!E.'@@3%/3A;!1()!'2)!,%/%3.3)!"3#)!9*!4+>Z45O!^+OOL_;!! 5;! <(@@$%A*!?;!%/!-;!`.3!$SR'EG!(T!/@(&'@!8'9S$%/!(%!G.3!G9(R$E'@!1'E$T$E!YE3'%!'%7!6@! J$l(;!4-/(.%!5%36#$)!3L!4L1Z4LH!^+O1O_;! >;! )$*!#;!%/!-;!X%G3973E'7'@!S(7D@'G$(%!(T!6@!J$l(!'SR@$GD73!7D9$%/!G.3!R'AG!S$@@3%%$DS;! 4-/(.%!7$2)!78-&9%!1L!115Z11I!^+O11_;!! B;! -G3V3%A(%*!-;!%/!-)!g$@@!G.393!&3!'!A$/%$T$E'%G!E.'%/3!G(!6@!J$%(!$%!G.3!+1AG!<3%GD9Ny! :)!7$2-/%!25L!+1+LZ+15>!^+O1+_;! H;! U9&'%*!K;!6;*!<(@3*!#;!6;!z!YV39R3E=*!#;!`;!X%T@D3%E3!(T!S3'%!E@$S'G3!E.'%/3!(%! E@$S'G3!V'9$'&$@$GN!T9(S!'!1>>N3'9!G9(R$E'@!1'E$T$E!E(9'@!93E(97;!4-/(.%!47L!LILZLL4! ^+OOO_;! I;! <(&&*!Q;!?;*!<.'9@3A*!<;!C;*!<.3%/*!W;!z!678'97A*!:;!);!6@!J$l(m-(DG.39%! YAE$@@'G$(%!'%7!G9(R$E'@!1'E$T$E!E@$S'G3!7D9$%/!G.3!@'AG!S$@@3%%$DS;!4-/(.%!424*!+H1Z +HB!^+OO4_;! L;!?'%%*!?;!6;*!c9'7@3N*!:;!-;!z!WD/.3A*!?;!Q;!J(9G.39%!W3S$AR.393!G3SR39'GD93A! 7D9$%/!G.3!R'AG!S$@@3%%$DSi!X%T393%E3A*!D%E39G'$%G$3A*!'%7!@$S$G'G$(%A;!5%3;8<6)!*%6)! =%//)!26L!H>LZHB+!^1LLL_;!! 11
1O;!<.(87'9N*!#;!-;!%/!-;!X%G3973E'7'@!V'9$'G$(%A!$%!6J-Y!G3@3E(%%3EG$(%!G(!G.3!X%7( 83AG39%!1'E$T$E!T(9!1IHO+OOH;!:)!7$2-/%!25*!1H++Z1H55!^+O1+_;! 11;!Q'R@'%*!F;!%/!-;!F%'@NA3A!(T!/@(&'@!A3'!AD9T'E3!G3SR39'GD93!1I>B1LL1;!:)!5%3;8<6)! *%6)!13L!1I>BHZ1I>IL!^1LLI_;!! 1+;!`93%&39G.*!Q;!6;!z!-G3R'%$'=*!C;!1;!X%7$E3A!(T!6@!J$l(!3V(@DG$(%;!:)!7$2-/%!14L! 1BLHZ1HO1!^+OO1_;! 14;!:(R3@38A=$*!<;!K;!z!#(%3A*!1;!C;!F%!3pG3%A$(%!(T!G.3!`'.$G$C'98$%!-(DG.39%! YAE$@@'G$(%!X%73p;!,3&)!W%-)!*%+)!115*!+1B1Z+1B>!^1LIH_;! 15;!?'%%*!?;!6;!z!)33A*!#;!:(&DAG!3AG$S'G$(%!(T!&'E=/9(D%7!%($A3!'%7!A$/%'@!73G3EG$(%! $%!E@$S'G$E!G$S3!A39$3A;!7$2)!78-&9%!33L!5OLZ55>!^1LLB_;! 1>;!`(993%E3*!<;!z!<(SR(*!P;!1;!F!R9'EG$E'@!/D$73!G(!8'V3@3G!'%'@NA$A;!1()!'2%.)!,%/%3.)!"3#)!79L!B1ZHI!^1LLI_;! 1B;!FD@G*!`;!:;!%/!-;!X%G3%A$T$37!73E'7'@!V'9$'&$@$GN!$%!G9(R$E'@!E@$S'G3!7D9$%/!G.3!@'G3!1LG.! E3%GD9N*!5%3;8<6)!*%6)!=%//)!36L!)OIBO+!^+OOL_;!! 1H;!g$GG3%&39/*!F;!`;!F93!.$AG(9$E'@!93E(97A!ADTT$E$3%G!G(!E(%AG9'$%!6J-Y!A$SD@'G$(%Ay! 5%3;8<6)!*%6)!=%//)!36L!)1+HO+!^+OOL_;! 1I;!P39A.D%(V*!F;*!-E.%3$739*!J;!z!c'9%3GG*!`;!)(8T93nD3%EN!S(7D@'G$(%!(T!G.3!6J-Y X%7$'%!S(%A((%!9'$%T'@@!93@'G$(%A.$Ri!-$/%'@!(9!%($A3y!:)!7$2-/%!14*!+5IBZ+5L+! ^+OO1_;!! 1L;!6S$@3P3'N*!#;*!<(&&*!Q;*!?'%%*!?;!z!g$GG3%&39/*!F;!`;!6AG$S'G$%/!E3%G9'@! 3nD'G(9$'@!1'E$T$E!--`!V'9$'&$@$GN!(V39!G.3!R'AG!S$@@3%%$DS;!1'9G!+i!:3E(%AG9DEG$(%A! '%7!D%E39G'$%G$3A;!:)!7$2-/%!26L!+4+LZ+4>+!^+O14_;!! 1+
+O;!P39A.D%(V*!F;!z!c'9%3GG*!`;!1;!X%G3973E'7'@!S(7D@'G$(%!(T!6J-Y!G3@3E(%%3EG$(%A)! 1()!'2)!,%/%3.3)!"3#)!79L!+H1>Z+H+B!^1LLI_;! +1;!:(&(E=*!F;!d(@E'%$E!39DRG$(%A!'%7!E@$S'G3;!*%+)!5%3;8<6)!38L!1L1Z+1L!^+OOO_;!! ++;!F7'SA*!#;!c;*!?'%%*!?;!6;!z!FSS'%%*!<;!?;!19(pN!3V$73%E3!T(9!'%!6@!J$l(@$=3! :3AR(%A3!G(!d(@E'%$E!K(9E$%/;!4-/(.%!426L!+H5Z+HI!^+OO4_;!! +4;!C{F99$/(*!:;*!g$@A(%*!:;!z!`D7.(R3*!F;!XSR'EG!(T!V(@E'%$E!T(9E$%/!(%!G9(R$E'@! G3SR39'GD93A!7D9$%/!G.3!@'AG!T(D9!E3%GD9$3A;!4-/(.%!5%36#$)!2L!>1Z>B!^+OOL_;! +5;!?'%%*!?;!6;*!<'%3*!?;!F;*!h3&$'=*!-;!6;!z!<@3S3%G*!F;!d(@E'%$E!'%7!A(@'9!T(9E$%/!(T! G.3!G9(R$E'@!1'E$T$E!(V39!G.3!R'AG!1OOO!N3'9A;!:)!7$2-/%!18*!55HZ5>B!^+OO>_;!! +>;!6S$@3P3'N*!#;*!-3'/39*!:;*!<'%3*!?;!F;*!<((=!6;!:;!z!W'D/*!P;!W;!d(@E'%(3A!'%7! 6J-Y!(V39!G.3!R'AG!S$@@3%%$DS;!:)!7$2-/%!21L!4145Z415I!^+OOI_;! +B;!?EP93/(9*!-;!z!`$SS39S'%%*!F;!`.3!93AR(%A3!(T!6J-Y!G(!3pR@(A$V3!V(@E'%$E! 39DRG$(%A;!:)!7$2-/%!24L!+1HIZ+1L1!^+O11_;! +H;!-$3&39G*!);!z!-$S=$%*!`;!d(@E'%(3A!(T!G.3!8(9@7i!F%!$@@DAG9'G37!E'G'@(/!(T!W(@(E3%3! V(@E'%(3A!'%7!G.3$9!39DRG$(%A;!-S$G.A(%$'%!X%AG$GDG$(%*!P@(&'@!d(@E'%$AS!19(/9'S! C$/$G'@!X%T(9S'G$(%!-39$3A*!Pd14;!^+O1+_;! +I;!<@3S3%G*!F;!<;*!-3'/39*!:;*!<'%3*!?;!F;!z!h3&$'=*!-;!6;!F%!(E3'%!7N%'S$E'@! G.39S(AG'G;!:)!7$2-/%!9*!+1LOZ+1LB!^1LLB_;! +L;!Q'%/*!X;-;!X%T@D3%E3!(T!a(%'@!S3'%!T@(8!E.'%/3!(%!AG'G$(%'9N!8'V3!T@DEGD'G$(%A;!:)! '/236)!"#$)!47*!151Z15H!^1LLO_;! 4O;!1'@S39*!g;!<;!,%/%3.339$#-!D.3(98/!U;-;!C3R'9GS3%G!(T!<(SS39E3*!g'A.$%/G(%!!! C;<;!^1LB>_;!! 14
W4X-ow")6(-,s!! g3!g.'%=!g.3!93a3'9e.39a!8.(!.'v3!e(%g9$&dg37!g.3$9!g9339$%/!7'g'!t(9!?fcf!'%7! JFCF!73V3@(RS3%G*!'%7!C9;!g$@@$3!-((%!T(9!.3@RTD@!7$AEDAA$(%A!(%!G.3!93E(97A!(T! AD%AR(G!%DS&39;!`.$A!93A3'9E.!8'A!TD%737!&N!G.3!J'G$(%'@!-E$3%E3!K(D%7'G$(%*!G.3! J'G$(%'@!c'A$E!:3A3'9E.!19(/9'S!(T!<.$%'!^+O1+<cL>>BOO_*!G.3!J'G$(%'@!YE3'%$E!'%7! FGS(AR.39$E!F7S$%$AG9'G$(%*!G.3!#'R'%!F/3%EN!T(9!?'9$%36'9G.!-E$3%E3!'%7! `3E.%(@(/N*!KYJC6<\`!^J(;11+OLB>_*!<YJX<\`mKYJCF1m1>11OOOL*!<YJX<6`! '%7!XFX!^<:J+O5H_;!`.$A!$A!'%!X%G39%'G$(%'@!1'E$T$E!:3A3'9E.!<3%G39m-E.((@!(T!YE3'%! '%7!6'9G.!-E$3%E3!'%7!`3E.%(@(/N!<(%G9$&DG$(%!^ m _!'%7!'!)'S(%GZC(.39GN!6'9G.! Y&A39V'G(9N!<(%G9$&DG$(%!^ _;! W*,2o1#4o-,1%=*,%o-s!! #;);*!-;1;2;!'%7!6;:;<;!73A$/%37!G.3!93A3'9E.;!#;);*!-;1;2;*!?;-;?;*!C;F;<;!'%7!J;<;#;! '%'@Na37!7'G';!#;);*!-;1;2;!'%7!J;<;#;!89(G3!G.3!R'R39;!F@@!'DG.(9A!7$AEDAA37!G.3!93AD@GA! '%7!E(SS3%G37!(%!G.3!S'%DAE9$RG;!! W))%,%o-a"#%->o1(a,%o-# -DRR@3S3%G'9N!$%T(9S'G$(%!$A!'V'$@'&@3!$%!G.3!(%@$%3!V39A$(%!(T!G.3!R'R39;!:3R9$%GA!'%7! R39S$AA$(%A!$%T(9S'G$(%!$A!'V'$@'&@3!(%@$%3!'G!888;%'GD93;E(Sm93R9$%GA;!<(993AR(%73%E3! '%7!93nD3AGA!T(9!S'G39$'@A!A.(D@7!&3!'7793AA37!G(!#;);! Co(3,%-6#>%-a-4%a"#%-,1s,s# `.3!'DG.(9A!73E@'93!%(!E(SR3G$%/!T$%'%E$'@!$%G393AGA;!! 15
Y%6*1#Ca3,%o-sT## Y%6*1#1#Z#!$9:#14o-s,1*4,%o-#a-)#/1%>%4a,%o-C#aL#-R'G$'@!E(993@'G$(%!T$3@7!(T!G933 9$%/!1<1!8$G.!/@(&'@!J(V3S&39#'%D'9N!--`A 11!7D9$%/!1IH11LL+;!`.3!&@'E=!&(p! 73%(G3A!G.3!J$l(4;5!93/$(%;!`.3!A.'737!@3GG39A!73%(G3!'93'A!8.393!G933!9$%/A!'93!A3%A$G$V3! G(!6J-Y!^-DRR@3S3%G'9N!`'&@3!-+_;!`.3!&@'E=!7(GA!$%7$E'G3!A$G3!@(E'G$(%A!S3%G$(%37!$%! G.3!G3pG;#=-L#<(SR'9$A(%!(T!(D9!6J-Y!93E(%AG9DEG$(%!^&@D3_!8$G.!G9(R$E'@!93E(97A!^937_i! =L#JC#!$%AG9DS3%G'@!J$l(4;5!$%73p!7D9$%/!1IH1+OO>*#4L#&(93'@!8$%G39!^-3RG3S&39 K3&9D'9N_!$%AG9DS3%G'@!-YX!7D9$%/!1IBH+OO>;!)L#?'$'%'!E(9'@!δ 1I Y!A39$3A H!7D9$%/!1I51 1LL5;!L!1'@SN9'!E(9'@!δ 1I Y!A39$3A I!T(9!%(%E(%G$%D(DA!T9'EG$(%A!(T!G.3!R'AG!A3V3%! E3%GD9$3A;#>L#`.3!93E(%AG9DEG37!JC#!J$l(4;5!--`A!(V39!14O1+OO>;#--`!'%(S'@$3A!'93! 93@'G$V3!G(!G.3!S3'%!(T!(&A39V37!--`A!7D9$%/!1LH1+OOO;!`.3!/933%!&(@7!@$%3!73%(G3A!'! 41N9!@(8R'AA!T$@G39;! # Y%6*1#2#Z#So)*"a,%o-#o>#!$9:#,"4o--4,%o-sC!aL!41N9!9D%%$%/!&$83$/.G!V'9$'%E3!T(9! (&A39V37!^937_!'%7!93E(%AG9DEG37!^&@D3_!J$l(4;5!--`A;!`.3!7'A.37!@$%3A!$%7$E'G3!G.3!L>q! E(%T$73%E3!$%G39V'@!T(9!AG(E.'AG$E!V'9$'G$(%A*!&'A37!(%!1O*OOO!?(%G3!<'9@(!A$SD@'G$(%A! ^-DRR@3S3%G'9N!?3G.(7A_;!=-)L!41N9!9D%%$%/!E(993@'G$(%A!(T!93E(%AG9DEG37!J$l(4;5!--`A! 8$G.!G9339$%/!A39$3A!T9(Si#=L!<3%G9'@!FA$'!^&@D3_!'%7!?'9$G$S3!<(%G$%3%G!^937_;!4L! -(DG.83AG!J(9G.!FS39$E'!^&@D3_!'%7!G.3!1'E$T$E!J(9G.83AGm`3p?3p!93/$(%!^937_;#)L! -(DG.!FS39$E'%!F@G$R@'%(!^&@D3_!'%7!%(9G.39%!J38!h3'@'%7!^937_;!`.3!7'A.37!@$%3A!$%!=- )!$%7$E'G3!G.3!O;O>!A$/%$T$E'%E3!@3V3@;!d39G$E'@!A.'7$%/!73%(G3A!R39$(7A!(T!@(8!6J-Y! V'9$'%E3;!!! 1>
Y%6*1#3#Z#!$9:#1s3o-s#,o#"a16#,1o3%4a"#1*3,%o-sC!aL!-DR39R(A37!6R(E.!F%'@NA$A ++! ^-6F_!T(9!@'9/3!G9(R$E'@!39DRG$(%A!7D9$%/!14O1+OO>;!c3T(93!G.3!-6F*!G.3!93E(%AG9DEG37! J$l(4;5!--`A!8393!R9(E3AA37!DA$%/!'!LN9!.$/.R'AA!T$@G39!G(!$A(@'G3!$%G39'%%D'@! V'9$'&$@$GN;!699(9!&'9A!73%(G3!--`!'%(S'@$3A!(T!(%3!AG'%7'97!73V$'G$(%!'G!3'E.!N3'9;! FAG39$A=!^,_!73%(G3A!'%(S'@$3A!A$/%$T$E'%G!'G!G.3!O;O1!@3V3@*!&'A37!(%!'!G8(G'$@37! AGD73%GMA!GG3AG;!=-*!<(SR(A$G3!S($AGD93!'%(S'@$3A!'AA(E$'G37!8$G.!=L!)'!J$l'*!4L!6@! J$l(*!)L!@'9/3!G9(R$E'@!39DRG$(%A!'G!GsO*!'%7!L!@'9/3!G9(R$E'@!39DRG$(%A!'G!Gw1;!`.3!6@!J$l(! ^1>_!'%7!)'!J$l'!^1L_!3V3%GA!'93!73T$%37!'A!G.3!JC#!--`!'%(S'@$3A!3pE337$%/!O;>x<*! DA$%/!G.3!LN9!.$/.R'AA!T$@G3937!J$l(4;5!$%73p 11!7D9$%/!1L>O+OO>!^-DRR@3S3%G'9N! `'&@3!-B_;!`.3!%DS&39!(T!@'9/3!G9(R$E'@!39DRG$(%A!T(9!E(SR(A$G3!'%'@NA$A!$A!++! ^-DRR@3S3%G'9N!`'&@3!-5_;!?($AGD93!E(%7$G$(%A!'93!$%7$E'G37!&N!G.3!1'@S39!C9(D/.G! -3V39$GN!X%73p 4O!^1C-X_;!1(A$G$V3!^%3/'G$V3_!'%(S'@$3A!$%7$E'G3!83G!^79N_!E(%7$G$(%A*! 93AR3EG$V3@N;#!!!! 1B
a A B Darwin Maiana E Palmyra Tahiti D C D G F b c d SSTA ( o C) SSTA ( o C) SSTA ( o C) 2 2 1 1-1 -1-2 -2 R =.77 2-2 1-1 -1 1-2 2 R = -.67 2-5 1-1 -2-3 R = -.57-4.5-4 -3.5 Maiana SSTA ( o C) SOI 18 O Anomaly ( ) 184 186 188 19 192 194 196 198 2 e f SSTA ( o C) SSTA ( o C) 2 1-1 -2-3 // // R = -.33 (1319-1454) R = -.51 (1629-1696) // // 132 136 14 144 163 165 167 169 2 1-1 -2-3 R = -.53 (1887-1998) 192 196 2-5.5-5 -4.5 Palmyra 18 O Anomaly ( ) 13 14 15 16 Year (AD) 17 18 19 2
a 1.5 Variance 1.5 b c d Southwest NA Central Asia Correlation Correlation SA Altiplano Correlation.8 -.8.6.4 -.6 -.4.8 -.8.6.4.2 -.2 -.4.6.6.4.4.2.2 -.6 -.4 -.2.2.4 Maritime Continent Pacific NW/TexMex New Zealand 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 Year (AD)
a SSTA ( o C) 1.2.8.4 -.4 -.8-1.2 b -6-4 -2 2 4 6 Years relative to eruption c La Niña El Niño d e Eruption (t=) Eruption (t+1)