28 1 2011 1 Saisical Research Vol. 28 No. 1 Jan. 2011 2003 6 2005 2006 2004 C812 A 1002-4565 2011 01-0027 - 09 Theory and Effeciveness Evaluaion of he Chinese Governmen s Inervenion in he Housing Marke Wang Songao Absrac Firslyhis paper heoreically analyzes he objecive and insrumens of governmen inervenion in housing prices based on he sock-flow model. Secondlyby joinly employing he muli-variable inervenion analysis and panel daa analysishis paper carries ou an empirical sudy o examine he combined impacs of several imporan policy measures on he housing price movemens in BeijingShanghaiGuangzhouShenzhenTianjin and Chongqing. The resuls will show ha 1 Mos naionwide inervenion insrumens have significan shor-erm or long-erm effecs on housing prices in major ciiesespecially he wo rounds of he comprehensive conrol policy led by he Sae Council afer 2005 helped curb fas rising housing prices wih differen paerns and magniudes. 2 The effeciveness of his round of governmen inervenion has gradually improvedbu naionwide inervenion insrumens have differen impacs on regional housing submarkes. The negaive responses of he second-ier ciies housing markes were much sronger han hose of he firs-ier ciies. 3 The land ransacion regime changed iniiaed in 2004 migh be one of he mos imporan policies ha boosed up he housing prices. Key words Housing Marke Governmen Inervenion Effeciveness Evaluaion 4-6 1 1 2 1 3
28 2011 1 δh S - 1 P X 2 MC LC i s i m VAC DiPasquale Wheaon 4 6 ΔP = P - P -1 = γ P * - P -1 4 2003 4 P e = EP +1 I P e = Σ p w i P - i 5 1 i = 1 6 ΔH S = C P X 2 - δh S -1 = τh S* P X 2 - H S -1 - δh S -1 6 4 γ 6 H S* H S* P 1 6 7 P = P * + ε = P * R y p i m π ζ P e λ GDP 1 2 INC POP PS MC LC i s VAC δ H s -1 + ε 7 H D P R U X 1 = H S = P non - gov* π 1 ζ GDP INC POP PS MC LC ΔH S = H S - H S -1 = C P X 2 - δh S -1 2 VAC δ P e + P gov* R y p i m i 1 H D s λ H s -1 P e + ε 7 7 P R U non - gov* P X 1 P gov* GDP INC POP PS P 3 y. 2 p i m ζ π P e λ 1 μ c 8 U U = 1 - y i m + p - π + ζ - E P e / P - 1 + λ / μ c 3 2 H S δ C 1 2003 6-8 2 2004 4-8 3 2005 3-5 4 2006 5-6 2 marke fundamenal price
28 1 29 P 10 ΔP gov* < 0 2003 6-2007 9 6 2 4 announcemen 2003 effec 1 2003 6-8 2003 6 5 2003 9 21 6% 7% 1988 12% 13% 15 9 1 121 P * 1 121 2004 2004 3 31 2004 8 31 1 71 1 regime shif 1 P * OB AA 2 CC OD 2007 9
30 2011 1 2005 2005 3-5 2 1 2 2006 2006 5-6 2006 6 1 2 90 70% 3 2 5 2006 6 2-a 1 30% 90 CC C C P * + 1 P * 2-a 11
28 1 31 2-b CC CC 2. OB OB 9 P * + 1 Y = ΔLn HP L = α L + βx N + γ i X L 1. 1213 Box Tiao Box 14 Jenkins 20 70 9 Y = M + Σ k j = 1 = M + Σ k j = 1 f j + N ω j B / δ j B I j θ B e + B 1 - B d 9 Y M I j β N f j X N i j X L ω j B δ j B j i γ i ω j B = ω j 0 - ω j 1 B - ω j 2 B 2 i - - ω j s B s δ j B = 1 - δ j 1 B - δ j 2 B 2 - - δ j r B r B B 1 - B d θ B d φ B = 1 - φ 1 B - φ 2 B 2 - - φ p B p θ B = 1 - θ 1 B - θ 2 B 2 - - θ q B q 3 P * 2-b + Σ k ω ij B / δ ij B I N j + ε 9 j = 1 Y i ε i σ 2 u α L i X N N X L L ω ij B δ ij B 2001 1 2007 9
32 2011 1 10 Eviews 6. 0 pooled generalized leas square 10 1 6 1. 2003 6-8 3 θ 1i 6 6 81 2007 9 2003 6-8 6 0. 23% ~ 0. 45% 2. 08% 5 Trade N 1 5-10 NSIR N 5 2. 2004 4-8 RMLIR N M2 N Sock N SH θ 2i 6 Sock N SZ INC L i CPI L i 2002 12 100 9 2 3 10 7 ΔlnHP L i = α L i + β 1 ΔLn TradeN NCPI N 100 + β 2 ΔlnNSIR N + β 3 Δ RMLIR N + + β 4 Δln M2 N NCPI N 100 + β 5 Δln Sock N NCPI N 100 + γ 1i ΔlnHP L i -1 6 11 3. 2005 3-5 + γ 2i lninc L i + + γ 3i ΔlnCPI L i + θ 1i I N 1p + θ 2i I N 3p θ 3i + θ 3i I N 4p + θ 4i I N 2g + θ 5i I N 4g + υ i i = bj sh gz sz j cq 10 Phillips-Perron INC L i 2005 3-5 10 INC L i 1. 68% 1. 36% 4. 55%
28 1 33 1 4 6 ΔlnHP bj ΔlnHP sh ΔlnHP gz ΔlnHP sz ΔlnHP j ΔlnHP cq α L i - 0. 0980 0. 2056-0. 3182-0. 1556-0. 122 0. 0522 β 2 0. 4055 0. 4055 0. 4055 0. 4055 0. 4055 0. 4055 4. 923 0. 000 4. 923 0. 000 4. 923 0. 000 4. 923 0. 000 4. 923 0. 000 4. 923 0. 000 β 4 0. 1042 * 0. 1042 * 0. 1042 * 0. 1042 * 0. 1042 * 0. 1042 * 1. 910 0. 057 1. 910 0. 057 1. 910 0. 057 1. 910 0. 057 1. 910 0. 057 1. 910 0. 057 β 5 0. 0226 0. 0226 0. 0226 0. 0226 0. 0226 0. 0226 2. 270 0. 024 2. 270 0. 024 2. 270 0. 024 2. 270 0. 024 2. 270 0. 024 2. 270 0. 024 γ 1i - 0. 2926 * - 0. 3581-0. 4925-0. 2004-0. 1641-0. 2830-1. 752 0. 081-2. 211-0. 028-3. 339 0. 001-1. 250 0. 212-0. 869 0. 385-0. 766 0. 444 γ 2i 0. 0143-0. 0272 0. 0438 0. 0205 0. 0185-0. 0074 2. 399 0. 017-2. 605 0. 010 2. 987 0. 003 0. 892 0. 373 1. 485 0. 138-0. 540 0. 589 γ 3i - 0. 0874-0. 1841-0. 3147 0. 0774-0. 3052-0. 2052-0. 706 0. 480-0. 781 0. 435-1. 487 0. 138 0. 336 0. 737-1. 474 0. 141-0. 602 0. 547 θ 1i 0. 0031 0. 0208 0. 0041 0. 0045 0. 0026 0. 0023 1. 485 0. 138 2. 620 0. 009 0. 407 0. 684 1. 594 0. 112 0. 803 0. 423 0. 341 0. 734 θ 2i 0. 2790 0. 2457 0. 7376 0. 8220 0. 3070 0. 6451 1. 137 0. 256 1. 289 0. 198 2. 586 0. 010 2. 584 0. 010 1. 473 0. 141 1. 584 0. 114 θ 3i - 0. 0168 * - 0. 0115 0. 0044-0. 0082-0. 0136 * - 0. 0455 * - 1. 912 0. 057-0. 937 0. 349 0. 388 0. 698-1. 558 0. 120-1. 692 0. 091-1. 798 0. 073 θ 4i 0. 0040-0. 0034 0. 0282 0. 0858 0. 0179-0. 0071 0. 912 0. 362-0. 529 0. 597 1. 359 0. 175 4. 010 0. 000 0. 436 0. 663-0. 172 0. 863 θ 5i 0. 1765-0. 0715-0. 2943-0. 6738-0. 7431-0. 7351 0. 775 0. 439-0. 267 0. 789-1. 003 0. 316-2. 223 0. 027-2. 793 0. 006-2. 129 0. 034 R 35. 70% F 1279. 30 D. W. 1. 995 * 1% 5% 10% 20% T T P 0. 44% 0. 82% 1. 15% 1 5 2003 4. 2006 5-6 2 1 3 θ 4i 4 2003 6-2007 9 1 3 2 2 θ 5i
34 2011 1 4 2 6 ΔP gov* < 0 2003. 06-2003. 12-1. 71-13. 26-1. 97-2. 48-1. 05-0. 63 2004. 01-2004. 12-2. 19-4. 49-3. 48-1. 85-2. 70-8. 62 2005. 01-2005. 12 4. 27 2. 34-8. 26-2. 24 0. 91 8. 16 2006. 01-2006. 12-11. 56-3. 03-16. 53-41. 28-0. 51 2. 31 2007. 01-2007. 09-30. 32-5. 77-22. 54-20. 90 5. 01 1. 16-7. 63-3. 72-10. 65-14. 37 0. 22 0. 55 2003. 06-2003. 12-1. 71-13. 26-1. 97-2. 48-1. 05-0. 63 2004. 01-2004. 12-0. 05-0. 45 0. 00-0. 06-0. 03 0. 00 2005. 01-2005. 12 5. 23 3. 62-1. 07 2. 43 3. 06 6. 14 2006. 01-2006. 12-4. 03 1. 13-1. 50 1. 60 5. 35 1. 29 2007. 01-2007. 09-9. 33 0. 76 7. 62 21. 73 12. 20 7. 36-1. 55-0. 41 0. 50 4. 39 3. 93 2. 92 2003 4 6 2003 4
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