24 2 2015 4 JOURNAL OF NATURAL DISASTERS Vol. 24 No. 2 Apr. 2015 1004-4574 2015 02-0178 - 08 DOI: 10. 13577 /j. jnd. 2015. 0223 1 1 2 1. 650034 2. 210044 NCEP 1 1 MM5 V3. 6 T - ln P LI CAPE CIN EPV TV122 +. 1 A Contrastive analysis of instability mechanism of two extra torrential rain events in Yunnan Province ZHU Li 1 ZHANG Tengfei 1 DING Zhiying 2 1. Yunnan Meteorological Observatory Kunming 650034 China 2. School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science & Techndgqy Nanjing 210044 China Abstract 1 1 NCEP reanalyzed data and MM5V3. 6 numerical model were used to simulate two typical local extra torrential rain events happened in Yunnan Province which located in lower latitude plateau of china. High space-time resolution data from MM5V3. 6 numerical model was utilized to draw T-ln P diagram and calculate LI index CAPE index CIN index and equivalent potential vortex EPV. These physical quantities were used to analyze the conditional instability convective instability and conditional symmetrical instability of the two local extra torrential rain events. Results indicate that the two local extra torrential rain events have different instability mechanism. When atmosphere is stratification stable and convective stable or weak unstable the conditional symmetrical instability may lead to heavy precipitation. Key words disastrous extra torrential rain numerical simulation conditional instability convective instability conditional symmetrical instability 1 2 3 2014-01 - 09 2014-03 - 15 41265001 CMAYBY2015-070 2013CB430103 YB201102 1981 -. E-mail julia_11301011@ 163. com
2 179 4 5 6-7 MM5 V3. 6 1 2003 6 16 12 17 00 227 mm 16 14 17 3 h 151. 1 mm 1 a 10 mm 16 15 16 17 16 15 72 mm /h 14 15 16 17 2008 7 2 12 h 113. 6 mm 7 10 mm 7 1 18 7 1 22 7 1 20 h 51 mm 1 h h 19 20 20 21 1 b Fig. 1 1 a b Hourly rainfall recorded by meteorological stations in Chuxiong a and Kunming b MM5V3. 6 101. 25 E 25 N 26 28 81 81 91 91 54 km 18 km 5 2003 6 16 1 2 Graupel reisner2 2008 7 1 1 2 Mix Phase Graupel gsfc 1 Betts - Miller 2 Grell MRF Cloud 2003 6 16 12 h 2 b2 a A B
180 24 99. 2 E 26 N 8 9 2008 7 2 18 h 2 d2 c 102. 29 E 25. 42 N 18 97 mm 23 2 mm 2003 6 16 12 6 17 00 12 h a b mm 2008 7 1 12 2008 7 2 06 18 h c d mm Fig. 2 Actual and simulated accumulated rainfall in two interval unit mm 2 10 LI 20 50 11 900 m 500 hpa T' 500 hpa T 500 LI = T 500 - T'. 1 LI LI < 0
2 181 700 hpa 1 LI < 0 LI = 0 LI > 0 2003 6 16 12 T - ln P 3 3 h T' > T LI = - 2 < 0 700 ~ 550 hpa Fig. 3 3 2003 6 16 12 T - ln P Diagam of T - ln P simulated by controlling test at 2003-03 - 16 T 12 00 00 for the air of torrential rain center 2008 7 1 3 h 7 1 16 T' T LI = 0 450 hpa ~ 350 4 Fig. 4 4 2008 7 1 16 T - ln P Diagram of T - ln P simulated by controlling test at 2008-07 - 01 T 16 00 00 for the air of torrential rain center
182 24 3 K 12 K 13 { > 0 θ = 0 z < 0. θ e 5 2003 6 16 13 2 h 800 ~ 550 hpa θ e V θ e < 0 z 5 a CAPE 598J /kg CIN 0 3 16 θ e 15 V θ e = 0 z 5 b CAPE 9 J /kg CIN 0 θ e 2008 7 1 3 h 800 ~ 700 hpa < 0 θ z e 5 c CAPE 8 J /kg 10 J /kg 4 θ e 7 1 20 = 0 5 d z CAPE 53J /kg CIN 1 J /kg 2008 7 1 2003 6 16 2003 6 16 2008 7 1 4 CSI 5-6 CSI Moore 14 EPV CSI EPV EPV EPV Moore EPV EPV = - gη g θ e g η g x y p θ e 2 3
2 183 5 K a 2003 6 16 13 b 2003 6 16 15 c 2008 7 1 16 d. 2008 7 1 20 Fig. 5 Longitudinal vertical profile of equivalent potential temperature through simulated torrential rain center unit K Fig. 6 6 PVU a 2003 6 16 13 b 2003 6 16 14 Longitudinal vertical profile of equivalent potential vortex through simulated torrential rain center unit PUV EPV 2003 6 16 13 25 N - 26. 5 N EPV 6 a 6 16 14 26. 4 N 550 ~ 350 hpa EPV EPV 400hPa - 1PVU 6 b EPV EPV EPV 16 17 EPV
184 24 2008 7 1 7 1 10 5 24. 5 N - 26 N 650 ~ 300 hpa EPV EPV EPV - 0. 2PVU 7 a EPV EPV 7 1 13 EPV 24. 8 N 45 ~ 250 hpa EPV - 1. 5PVU 7 b EPV 7 c EPV 7 d Fig. 7 7 PVU a 2008 7 1 10 b 2008 7 1 13 c 7 1 14 d. 7 1 18 Longitudinal vertical profile of equivalent potential vortex through simulated torrential rain center unit PVU EPV 2003 6 16 EPV EPV 2008 7 1 5 h EPV EPV EPV EPV 5 3 1 LI CAPE CIN T - ln P LI 2003 6 16 2008 7 1 2 θ e 2003 6 16 2008 7 1
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