. 1,. 2. 3 1,3,,,, 54 124 2,,,,54 124 E-mails: 1 hatzi1@civil.auth.gr, 2 diatol@geo.auth.gr, 3 niktheod@civil.auth.gr H. -. - -,,., -, -., -,. :,,. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE WATER BALANCE OF SMALL SCALE WATER BASINS K. Chatziparadeisi 1, K. Tolika 2 and N. Theodosiou 3 1,3 Div. of Hydraulics and Environmental Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, School of Engineering, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54 124 Thessaloniki 2 Department of Meteorology Climatology, School of Geology, Faculty of Science, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54 124 Thessaloniki E-mails: 1 hatzi1@civil.auth.gr, 2 diatol@geo.auth.gr, 3 niktheod@civil.auth.gr ABSTRACT The current climate change period imposes the need to change the natural resources management practices among which water resources management is of major importance. In this paper, data extracted from one of the most recent Regional Climate Models (RCMs) were applied aiming at the analysis of their future projections concerning the monthly average and extreme phenomena distribution of rainfall and temperature over the small scale water basin of Moudania in Chalkidiki. Based on these data which generally simulate temperature better rather than rainfall, an estimation over the water balance is attempted. The conclusion derived from this application, beyond the apparent misuse of the water resources, is that the water balance will be further degraded taking into consideration the estimated alteration of the rainfall profile to more extreme and intense phenomena Key words: Water resources management, Climate change, water balance. 6 ο Πανελλήνιο Συνέδριο Εταιρείας Γεωργικών Μηχανικών Ελλάδος Η Γεωργική Μηχανική και η Μηχανική Βιοσυστημάτων στην εποχή των βιοκαυσίμων και των κλιματικών αλλαγών, Θεσσαλονίκη, 8-1 Οκτωβρίου 29 171
6 ο Πανελλήνιο Συνέδριο Εταιρείας Γεωργικών Μηχανικών Ελλάδος 1. 2 (IPCC, 27a), -,. 2,, (CO 2, CH 4, 2 ) (IPCC, 27a)., SRES (IPCC, 2). SRES ( 1, 2, 1, 2) -,,,,.,, -. (General Circulation Models-GCMs), - ~2-3km (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/). -, (, -,..). (Tolika et al., 27; Tolika et al., 28), ( )., 25km.,. 2. 2.1. -.,,,.,. 1,,. 127,22 km 2. 8% 2%,,.,. (, 23), 172
Υδατικοί Πόροι 16,6 C 44,4mm.. - -, -, KNMI-RACMO2. 25x25 km, ECHAM5. 196-21 SRES A1B. (.., 28). (grid points), ( 1).,,., -,,, -. 1.. Grid point 1 Grid point 2 Grid point 3 Grid point 4. Grid point 23,45 23,19 23,47 23,21 23,33 4,3 4,27 4,25 4,49 4,26 1. ( - ) ( - ). ( : GoogleEarth) 2.2.,, 197-2, 173
6 ο Πανελλήνιο Συνέδριο Εταιρείας Γεωργικών Μηχανικών Ελλάδος, - 1976-22 ( 2).,,,,.,, (, 28)., -,. -,,,.. -, 27,3 mm,. t-test >,5,.. ( C) 174 3 25 2 15 1 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 (cm) 8 6 4 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 (1976-22) KNMI (197-2) 2. 197-2 1976-22. 2.3., 221-25 271-21, 1976-22 ( 3)., 21. 21., 11 mm. 1, 4. 4.., Pq95, 95, 4...
Υδατικοί Πόροι 3 (221-25).. ( 4. ). 3 3 ( o C) 25 2 15 1 ( o C) 25 2 15 1 5 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 (1976-22) (221-25) (271-21) 3. ( ) ( ) 221-25 271-21. 5.. Grid point 1 Grid point 2 Grid point 3 Grid point 4 grid 4. -2. mm 3. 2. mm -4. -6. 1. -8.. Grid point 1 Grid point 2 Grid point 3 Grid point 4 grid -1. -12. control run 221-25 271-21 Diff ([221-25]- control run) Diff ([271-21]- control run) Pq95 2. 15. 15. 12. mm 1. 5. 9. 6. 3.. Grid point 1 Grid point 2 Grid point 3 Grid point 4. Grid point 1 Grid point 2 Grid point 3 Grid point 4 grid control run 221-25 271-21 control run 221-25 271-21 4. 221-25 271-21. 2.4. (, 23) : V = P - Et - G + DS x (2.1) 175
6 ο Πανελλήνιο Συνέδριο Εταιρείας Γεωργικών Μηχανικών Ελλάδος (V), - (P), (Et), (G), - (DS) (Ax). - (, 28),, m 3 /, (, 23),,. H - Thornthwaite. 3. - 1994-22 -1,72.m 3 (, 23) -.. 5 2-21, (, 28;, 29). 5, - 21,.,, 1994-22.,. Pq95, - ( ). - 5.,, 1976-22., 1976-22., -.,, 25.,, 176
Υδατικοί Πόροι. 6 4 2-2 -4-6 (.m3) 1994-22 2-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 24-25 25-26 26-27 27-28 28-29 29-21 5. ( ).,.,., -. - 21,. 4. -.. - 21,,. -,.. -, (IPCC, 27b).,, (, 23).,, 177
6 ο Πανελλήνιο Συνέδριο Εταιρείας Γεωργικών Μηχανικών Ελλάδος, -. - (.,28;,.., 29) -. -,,,. European Commission ENSEMBLES project (Contract number GOCE-CT-23-55539.,...). IPCC, 2. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Nebojsa Nakicenovic and Rob Swart (Editors), IPCC Secretariat, Cambridge University Press, UK. 57 pp. IPCC, 27a. Climate Change 27: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (Editors), Geneva, Switzerland, 14 pp. IPCC, 27b. Climate Change 27: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson (Editors), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 976pp.,., 23. -.,,.,.,,.,,.,,.,,., 28. :, 9. -,,. 55-512. Tolika, K., Anagnostopoulou, C., Maheras, P., Vafiadis, M., 28. Simulation of future changes in extreme rainfall and temperature conditions over the Greek area: A comparison of two statistical downscaling approaches. Global and Planetary Change, 63 (2): 132-151. Tolika, K., Maheras, P., Vafiadis, M., Flokas, H.A., Arseni-Papadimitriou, A., 27. Simulation of seasonal precipitation and raindays over Greece: a statistical downscaling technique based on artificial neural networks (ANNs). International Journal of Climatology, 27: 861-881.., 28.., -,...,.,.,., 29. :, 11 7,,. 19-26. 178