ISBN

( ) د. مهند ابو رجيله. 2013

( ). 1994. ( )....... ( ) ( ) ( ).( ) ( ) 2013 2426.. 19111.. info@mas.ps : 2987055 : 2987053/4 : /www.mas.ps :

( ) د. مهند ابو رجيله. 2013

.. :.. : (IDB) (BADEA) : ( ) 2013 ( ) ISBN 978-9950-374-40-9

........

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1 1 2 4 5 7 8-1 1-1 2-1 3-1 4-1 5-1 6-1 11 11 15-2 1-2 2-2 19 20 21 23 28 30-3 1-3 2-3 3-3 4-3 5-3 33 33 37 40 40 41 42-4 1-4 2-4 3-4 1-3-4 2-3-4 3-3-4 iii

43 4-3-4 45 45 48 50-5 1-5 2-5 3-5 55 55 59-6 1-6 2-6 63 iv

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:2 (2011-1997) النسبة (%) 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 الا ردن اسراي يل مصر الا راضي الفلسطينية الولايات المتحدة لبنان Source: World Bank, (2012), Bank Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross Loans, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/fb.ast.nper.zs (3).. 2012-2008 318,727.89 2008 1,248,182.94.%291.6 1,172 2012.%48 2008 1,733.2 2012 2012 2008 27

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( ).( ) (Production Function). ( ).(Pindyck and Rubinfeld, 2001) : RGDPG = β β β β + 0 + 1CL + 2 RINV + 3Empl e......( 1) : (%) : RGDPG ( ) : CL ( ) : RINV ( ) : Empl : e. : β ' s ( 4.44) ( 1.77) (4.64) (2.10) : RGDPG= 47.9 0.009CL + 0.111RINV + 0.033Empl 0.38AR(1)......2 ( ) R 2 = 0.74 F ratio= 9.17 DW = 1.9 34

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-93) (2011) 2011 (2012) 2010 (2011) (2011) (2001\7\4 15 www.pma.ps ( 2013) ( 2013) www.pma.ps ( 2013) 20 " (2010). " : " " (1998). 2.(2003).(1997)....(2006). 4 :.(2006). ( ) (5) 1997 (2) (17) (16) 2010 (9) 23.(2011) 31.(2013) 64

" (2005). ". " (2000). " 13 12159 ( ) (2012). Backé, P., Wójcik, C., (2008). "Credit Booms, Monetary Integration and the New Neoclassical Synthesis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(3): 458-470, March Bank Audi, Audi Saradar Group, 2012. Challenging Twin Deficits in a Wait and See Mode Economy, Jordan Economic Report Beck, T, Büyükkarabacak, B, Rioja, F., Valev, N., (2009). "Who Gets the Credit? And Does It Matter? Household vs. Firm Lending across Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 7400, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Beck T., Demirgüç-Kunt A., and Levine R., (2004). Finance, Inequality and Poverty: Cross-Country Evidence World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No. 3338 Demirgüç-Kunt, A., Detragiache, E., (1998). "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries", IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, Vol. 45(1): 81-109, March Dlamini, S., (2008), Bank Credit Extension to the Private Sector and Inflation in South Africa, Unpublished Master Thesis, Rhodes University Joseph, C., (2006). Credit Risk Analysis, Portfolio Credit Mitigation,' 1 st Ed., Mc Graw-Hill, New Delhi Kaminsky, G., 1998. "Currency and Banking Crises: The Early Warnings of Distress," International Finance Discussion Papers 629, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) McConnell C., Brue L., Flynn S., (2009), Economics: Principles, Problems and Policies, Eighteenth Edition, McGraw-Hill Irwin, 2009. Mishkin F. S., (2010), The Economics of Money Banking and Financial Markets, Ninth Edition: NY, Pearson: Addison Wesley 65

Pindyck R., Rubinfeld D., (2001), Microeconomics, Fifth Edition, NJ., Prentice Hall Reinhart, C., Kaminsky, G., (1999). "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance of Payments Problems," American Economic Review, 89(3): 473-500 Wa, H. N., (2005), Bank Credit and Economic Growth in Macao, Monetary Authority of Macao World Bank, (2012), Bank Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross Loans, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/fb.ast.nper.zs Zinman, J., (2010). "Restricting Consumer Credit Access: Household Survey Evidence on Effects Round the Oregon Rate Cap," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, Vol. 34(3): 546-556, March 66