1. Panel Data.

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1 - / / / (-) / : / : δ. -. karnameh@yahoo.com nemata44@yahoo.com 1. Panel Data.

2 ... -, :

3 /., ( )., (-) : Convergence.

4 "..(,)......

5 /......(, ),...,

6 ( ). ( ). " Menon, Maria E.(1997).

7 / ) (.. (OIC : ) (). 1. Duchesne I.& Nonneman W. (1998).

8 . - (). ( ),.. OECD....,.. ( )... ( )... : 1. Summers, Robert & Alan Hesten (1993).

9 / GY it = a-(1-e -β )LGDP i,t-1 + U it ( ) GY it = Ln (GDP it / GDP i,t-1 ) LGDP i,t-1 t i GY it a. U it t-1 i β. β>0. β.. : Dav t = F[ Pe, Ie, t ] ( ) t t Dav t (Pe). (Ie) ( ),. -. ( ).. β :

10 GDav it = a-(1-e -β )LDav i,t-1 +u it (i=1,...,24,t=1,..18) a β - LDav i,t-1 GDav it : i=1,...,24.. u it t=1,..18 GDav it =L(Dav it /Dav i,t-1 ) : ( ) LDav it = a+e -β LDav i,t-1 +u it (i=1,...,24,t=1,..18) ( ) - LDav i,t-1 - LDav it. a β. ( )..,.... :. -.. ( ). -.. ( ) :

11 / LDav it = -0/42+e -0/12 LDav i,t-1 ( ) (-6/15) (7/13) 1 R 2 =0/89, D.W=2/2 β. t.. β=0/12. 1/2=e -βt -. (T).. (HDI). ( ).. : LDav it = -0/55+e -0/16 LDav i,t-1 (-5/13) (5/41) R 2 =0/83, D.W=2/1 : HDI > ( ) LDav it = -0/35+e -0/11 LDav i,t-1 (-3/56) (4/51) R 2 =0/9, D.W=2/3 : HDI < ( ) t (β). 2. Human Development Indicator..

12 (). - HDI* HDI*.() : :HDI* β ( ).. ( ). β HDI <.. β.. ( ). - δ. - - :

13 / δ [ ] 2 2 t = = it 1/ n log( Dav ) μ ( ) i 1 n. t i - Dav μ : it t = E[log(Dav it )] ( ) ( ) stdev :. LDav it = a+e -β LDav i,t-1 +u it, - LDav it. β. - LDav i,t-1. u it. -.

14 : LDav it = -0/089+e -0/076 LDav i,t-1 (-1/46) (2/07) R 2 =0/82, D.W=1/87 : ( ) β. /.. : LDav it = -0/27+e -0/26 LDav i,t-1 ( ) (-5/89) (5/41) R 2 =0/72, D.W=2/1. β. - LDav it = -0/15+e -0/15 LDav i,t-1 (-5/55) (3/95) R 2 =0/8, D.W=2 β β. : ( ) a ( )... : LDav it = -1/02+e -0/42 LDav i,t-1 (-3/94) (4/23) R 2 =0/38, D.W=2/1. ( ) β a

15 /... : Log (Dav it / Dav i,t-1 ) = a-blog(dav i,t-1 )+u it 0<b<1. t i - Dav it -.. u it. b : Log (Dav it ) = a+(1-b)log(dav i,t-1 )+u it ( ) (OLS). ( ) b ( )..

16 * ( ). - D.W R 2 T b (1-b). AR MA *

17 /... ( ) ( β, δ. ( ) - -. (

18 ( - - b. b. ( ) β. - HDI> HDI< 0<b<1

19 /.( ).()... ( ).().,...,..().,..()..,.....()...()..()....()....()..() ().,.,.(OIC :).-.() ().,.,.()

20 ... Barro, Robert J. (1984). Macroeconomics. First Edition Newyork, Wiley. Barro, Robert J. and Xavier Sala-i-Martin. (1991). Convergence Across State and Regions. Economic Activity. No.1, PP Barro, Robert J. (1997). Determinants of Economic Growth (A Cross- Country Empirical Study). London, The MIT Press). Barro, Robert J. and Xavier Salai- Martin. (1995). Economic Growth. New York, Mc Graw-Hill. Duchesne and W. Wonneman. (1998). The Demand for Higher Education in Belgium. Economics of Education Review, Vol.17, No.2, PP Maria E. Menon. (1997). The Demand for Higher Education in Cyprus: An Educational Policy Perspective. Higher Education Policy, Vol, 10. No.1, PP Summers, Robert and Alam Heston. (1993). Penn World Tables,Ver, 5.6.

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