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1 : ( ) :, , : (1) 1993,,1993,, 2000, ; (2) ,, ; (3) :,,,, ( ),,,,,, ( ),, (Solow,1957),,, (1999),, (1993) ,, 0102 %, 013 % (2000) ,, %, %, 1419 %, (1999), (2003), 3 (04AJ Y006), (1999) (Hulten,2000) 51

2 : : ,,, , :,,,,, ;,, ( ) (growth accounting approach),,,, ( ) 1. (AIN) (arithmetic index number approach,ain) (Abramvitz,1956), P t, Q t, P t Q t K t, L t, r t, w t, r t K t + w t L t, : P t Q t = r t K t + w t L t (1), (1), (1) : P 0 Q t = TFP t [ r 0 K t + w 0 L t ] (2), r 0 w 0 P 0 TFP t, (2) : TFP t = P 0 Q t r 0 K t + w 0 L t (3) (3),,,,,,,,, (Caves,Christensen and Diewart,1982) 2. (SR) (Solow,1957),,,, : Y t = ( t) F( X t ) (4), Y t, X t = ( x 1 t,, x Nt ), x nt n ( t),, F ( ) 52

3 (4) t, (4) :, n = 5 Y t x n, t 5 x n, t Y t gy t = g Y t N + n n = 1 gx n, t (5) : g = gy t N - Y t n n = 1 x n, t (5) gx n, t x n, t (6) (6), n, ( ) C - D : Y t = A K t L t, Y t,l t, K t, : L n ( Y t ) = L n ( A) + L n ( K t ) + L n ( L t ) + t (7) t, + = 1,, : L n ( Y t ΠL t ) = L n ( A) + L n ( K t ΠL t ) + t (8), OLS, : K t = I t ΠP t + (1 - t ) K t - 1 (9) K t t, K t - 1 t - 1, P t, I t t, t t, (7), (8),, (6), (Lucas, 1988) :,, ;,,,,, ( ),,, 1. (LV) (latent variable approach,lv),, (state space model),,, ADF (the Augmented Dickey2Fuller) JJ (Johanson and Juselius,1990), C - D,, : L n ( Y t ) = L n ( TFP t ) + L n ( K t ) + (1 - ) L n ( L t ) + t (10) (2003) (2001) 53

4 : : , Ln ( TFP t ),, AR (1), : L n ( TFP t ) = L n ( TFP t - 1 ) + t (11),, < 1, t,, (10) (11),,,,,,, 2. (PO),,,,, (improvement in capacity realization) (potential output approach,po) (frontier production function), (Farrell,1957), ( ), ;, R y, t, R TP, t, CR t, R yx, t, R TFP, t, : R y, t = R TP, t + CR t + R yx, t (12), : R TFP, t = R TP, t + CR t (13) CR t,,, HP ( Hodrick2Prescott, 1990), (T ) : T T- 1 ( L ny t - L ny 3 t ) 2 + t = 1 t = 2 [ (Ln ( Y 3 t +1 - L ny 3 t ) - (LnY 3 t - L ny 3 t - 1) ] 2 (14) LnY t ( LnY 3 t ) ( LnY t - LnY 3 t ),,, R TP, (13), : (stochastic frontier analysis,sfa), Hildreth and Houck (1968) (random coefficient panel model),,,, ( Gong and Sickles,1992) (data envelopment analysis,dea),,,,, (2004a) 54

5 2005 6,,,,, , (2004) 2004 (2005) ( ), (9) ( 1978 ), 1 (8), Wald + = 1 Wald Ln ( Y t ) = Ln ( A) + Ln ( K t ) + Ln ( L t ) + t OLS, Ln ( K t ) Ln (L t ), : P > %,, , (6) OLS, : F P + = L n ( Y t ΠL t ) = (49. 8,0. 000) L n ( K tπl t ) (15) Adj R2squared = DW = 1184,, = , = , (6), , 1 ( ), ,,, ADF JJ, LnY,ADF : ADF (99 %) (95 %) MacKinnon P Z ( t) ADF = ,, MacKinnon P ( ), : ADF (99 %) (95 %) MacKinnon P Z ( t) ADF = , 95 %, 5 % I (1),ADF LnK LnL I (1) (2004a), 55

6 : : (TFP) GDP ( ) ( ) ( ) ( %) TFP TFP TFP ( %) (SR, %) (LV, %) (PO, %) LnY LnK LnL ( 95 % ) : R ( ) = ,,, 5 % LnY LnK LnL, LnY LnK LnL LnY LnK LnL, (10) 56

7 2005 6, ( Kalman Filter), (10) (11), : Wald ( P ) (0100) Wald P = 01945, (10) (11), , 1 ( ) HP,, OECD, = 25 (14) , 1, (13), , 1, ( ), 1, ,,,, (10),,, 57

8 : : :, ( : %, %, %) ;, ( : %, %, %), (,2004b) 1, (1) 1993,,,1993, ( ),,,, (2) 1993,, 2000,,1993, 1998,,,, 2000,,,,, %, % %,,, % ( ), (10) : 9142 % %(10113 %) %( %) %(90154 %) :, %, %,, ;,, %, % ; %,, %,,,,, (2004)

9 % 2113 % 2162 %(3415 %) 2105 %(2516 %) 3188 % 2174 %(3111 %) 3135 %(4816 %) 4181 %(5612 %) 3122 % 2146 %(2612 %) 5101 %(5212 %) 3118 %(4214 %) 2180 %(2718 %) 2164 % 0158 %(1419 %) 0163 %(1716 %) %( %) 4143 %(64 %) 1153 % 0182 %(2916 %) 0171 %(3116 %) %( %) 1152 %(42 %) 1178 % 0126 %(910 %) 0151 %(1618 %) 0153 %(2618 %) : Mercer2Melbourne Institute,1997 2, ; 20 70,,, ;,, ;,,, ,,,, ,, ;1993,, 2000,, %, 9146 %, ( %),, ( %), %,, 3.,,,,,,,, ;,,,, 59

10 : : ,1999 :,,,2004a :, 5,2004b : :, 7,1999 :,,2003 :,,2004 :, (3 26 ),1993 :,,2000 :, 7,2003 :, 8,1999 :, 5,2001 : :,, Abramvitz,M.,1956, Resource and Output Trends in the United States Since 1870, American Economic Review 46 Caves,D. W.,Christensen,L. R.,and W. E. Diewart,1982, The Economic Theory of Index Numbers and Measurement of Input,Output and Productivity, Econometrica 50. Everaert,L.,and F. N. D. Simone,2003, Capital Operating Time and Total Factor Productivity Growth in France,IMF Working Paper 128. Farrell,M.J.,1957, Measurement of Productive Efficiency, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society,Part3,Serial A. Gong,B. H.,and R. C. Sickles,1992, Finite Sample Evidence on the Performance of Stochastic Frontiers and Data Envelopment Analysis Using Panel Data, Journal of Econometrics 51. Hildreth,C.,and J. P. Houck,1968, Some Estimators for a Model with Random Coefficients, Journal of American Statistical Association 63. Hulten,C. R.,2000, Total Factor Productivity : A Short Biography,NBER Working Paper Johansen,S. and K. Juselius,1990, Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration With Applications to the Demand for Money,Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 52. Lucas,R. E.,1988, On the Mechanics of Development Planning, Journal of Monetary Economics 22. Salim,R. A.,1999, Capacity Realization and Productivity Growth in a Developing Country : Has Economic Reform Had Impact? Ashgate Publishing Ltd. Solow,R. M.,1957, Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function, Review of Economics and Statistics 39. Estimating Total Factor Productivity in China Guo Qingwang &Jia J unxue (China Financial Policy Research Center ;Renmin University of China) Abstract :After comparing four methods of estimating total factor productivity,this paper estimates total factor productivity growth rate and analyses total factor productivity growth and sources of economic growth for the period from 1979 to 2004 in China. The main conclusions are as follows : (1) total factor productivity growth rate presented fluctuant character and fluctuated markedly and frequently before 1993,but declined steadily after 1993 and presented some appearances of turnover in (2) Total factor productivity growth rate and itπs contribution of economic growth was lower which suggested that economic growth was input2driven growth for the period from 1979 to 2004 in China. (3) The reason why total factor productivity growth rate was lower lied on lower technological progress rate,technical inefficiency and unreasonable resource allocation. Key Words :Total Factor Productivity ; Solowπs Residual Method ; Latent Variable Method ; Potential Output Method JEL Classification :C490,O470 ( : ) ( : ) 60

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