Climate Change in the Mediterranean

Climate Change in the Mediterranean INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy Global Challenge, Local Solutions Antonio Navarra INGV CMCC - Centro EuroMediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici

Abstract INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy Climate has become one of the hottest issues today, moving from an obscure scientific dispute to the status of a global geopolitical issue, but the concept of climate itself is a sophisticated concept that is not the static, intuitive, idea that we may use in everyday life. The basic mechanisms of climate are regulated by global energy balances and they are the result of complex nonlinear interactions among the several systems participating in the shaping of the Earth climate. The intensity of the non linear interactions generates an intense variability in climate that makes very difficult the detection of small, secular trends. The increase of carbon dioxide and of surface temperatures is now being established as a fact, but the attribution of the temperature rise to carbon dioxide increases is a complex decision process. We cannot perform crucial experiments in climate science and we have to rely on a combination of numerical experiments and consensus among experts to reach provisional explanations. Nevertheless, this process results in the accumulation of knowledge and we will have to live with the idea that this is the way in which climate science progresses.

Aristotle Raphael, The School of Athens De De Δε Δε Meteorologica Μετεορολογιχα Ηοωεϖερ, However, Ηοωεϖερ, However, all all αλλ αλλ the the τηε mouths τηε mouths μουτησ μουτησ of of the the οφ οφ Nile, Nile, τηε τηε with with Νιλε, Νιλε, the the ωιτη ωιτη single single τηε τηε exception exception σινγλε σινγλε εξχεπτιον εξχεπτιον of of that that at at Canopus, Canopus, οφ οφ τηατ τηατ ατ are ατ are Χανοπυσ, obviously Χανοπυσ, obviously artificial artificial αρε αρε οβϖιουσλψ and οβϖιουσλψ and not not natural. natural. αρτιφιχιαλ αρτιφιχιαλ And And Egypt Egypt ανδ ανδ was was νοτ νοτ nothing nothing νατυραλ. νατυραλ. more more than than Ανδ Ανδ what what Εγψπτ Εγψπτ is is ωασ called ωασ called νοτηινγ νοτηινγ Thebes, Thebes, μορε as μορε as Homer, Homer, τηαν τηαν too, too, ωηατ ωηατ shows, shows, ισ ισ χαλλεδ χαλλεδ modern modern Τηεβεσ, though Τηεβεσ, though he he ασ ασ is is in in Ηομερ, Ηομερ, relation relation τοο, τοο, to to such such σηοωσ, σηοωσ, changes. changes. μοδερν μοδερν τηουγη τηουγη ηε ηε ισ ισ ιν ιν ρελατιον ρελατιον το τοσυχη χηανγεσ. χηανγεσ. (...) (...) Τηισ ( ) Τηισ ( ) ηαππενεδ ηαππενεδ το το τηε τηε λανδ λανδ οφ οφ Αργοσ Αργοσ ανδ ανδ Μψχεναε Μψχεναε ιν ιν Γρεεχε. Γρεεχε. Ιν Ιν τηε τηετιμε τιμε οφ οφ τηε τηε Τροϕαν Τροϕαν ωαρσ ωαρσ τηε τηε Αργιϖε This Αργιϖε This happened happened λανδ λανδ ωασ to ωασ to the the μαρσηψ μαρσηψ land land of of Argos Argos ανδ ανδ χουλδ χουλδ and and Mycenae Mycenae ονλψ ονλψ συππορτ συππορτ in in Greece. Greece. α σμαλλ In σμαλλ In the thetime time ποπυλατιον, ποπυλατιον, of of the the Trojan Trojan ωηερεασ ωηερεασ wars wars the the τηε τηε Argive Argive λανδ λανδ land land οφ οφ Μψχεναε was Μψχεναε was marshy marshy ωασ ωασ and and ιν could ιν could γοοδ γοοδ only only χονδιτιον. χονδιτιον. support support a a Βυτ Βυτ small small νοω νοω population, population, τηε τηε οπποσιτε οπποσιτε whereas whereas ισ ισ τηε the τηε the land land χασε, χασε, of of φορ Mycenae φορ Mycenae τηε τηε ρεασον ρεασον was was in in good good ωε ωε ηαϖε ηαϖε condition. condition. μεντιονεδ: But μεντιονεδ: But now now the the τηε opposite τηε opposite λανδ λανδ is is οφ οφ the the Μψχεναε Μψχεναε case, case, for for ηασ the ηασ the reason reason βεχομε βεχομε we we χομπλετελψ χομπλετελψ have have mentioned: mentioned: δρψ δρψ the the ανδ ανδ land land βαρρεν, βαρρεν, of of Mycenae Mycenae ωηιλε ωηιλε has has τηε τηε become become Αργιϖε Αργιϖε λανδ λανδ τηατ completely τηατ completely ωασ ωασ φορμερλψ dry φορμερλψ dry and and barren, barren, βαρρεν βαρρεν while while οωινγ οωινγ the the Argive Argive το το τηε τηε land land ωατερ ωατερ that that ηασ was ηασ was νοω formerly νοω formerly βεχομε βεχομε barren barren φρυιτφυλ. φρυιτφυλ. owing owing to to Νοω Νοω the the water water τηε τηε σαμε σαμε has has now now προχεσσ προχεσσ τηατ become τηατ become ηασ ηασ fruitful. fruitful. τακεν τακεν Now Now πλαχε πλαχε the the same same ιν ιν τηισ τηισ process process σμαλλ σμαλλ that that διστριχτ διστριχτ has has taken taken μυστ μυστ place place βε βε in in συπποσεδ συπποσεδ this this small small το district το district βε βε γοινγ γοινγ must must ον ον be be οϖερ οϖερ supposed supposed ωηολε ωηολε to to be be χουντριεσ going χουντριεσ going on on over over ανδ ανδ whole whole ον ον α countries countries λαργε λαργε σχαλε. σχαλε. and and on on a a large large scale. scale. (...) (...) Σο ( ) Σο ( ) ιτ ιτ ισ ισ χλεαρ, χλεαρ, σινχε σινχε τηερε τηερε ωιλλ ωιλλ βε βε νο νο ενδ ενδ το το τιμε τιμε ανδ ανδ τηε τηε ωορλδ ωορλδισ ισ ετερναλ, ετερναλ, τηατ τηατ νειτηερ νειτηερ τηε τηε So So Ταναισ Ταναισ it it is is clear, clear, νορ νορ since since τηε τηε Νιλε Νιλε there there ηασ ηασ will will αλωαψσ be αλωαψσ be no no end end βεεν βεεν to to time time φλοωινγ, φλοωινγ, and and the the βυτ βυτ world world τηατ τηατ is is eternal, eternal, τηε τηε ρεγιον ρεγιον that that neither neither ωηενχε ωηενχε the the τηεψ τηεψ Tanais Tanais φλοω φλοω nor nor ωασ ωασ the the Nile Nile ονχε ονχε has has δρψ: δρψ: always always φορ φορ τηειρ τηειρ been been flowing, flowing, εφφεχτ εφφεχτ μαψ but μαψ but that that βε βε φυλφιλλεδ, the φυλφιλλεδ, the region region whence whence βυτ βυτ τιμε τιμε they they χαννοτ. χαννοτ. flow flow was was Ανδ Ανδ once once τηισ τηισ dry: dry: ωιλλ ωιλλ for for βε their βε their εθυαλλψ εθυαλλψ effect effect may may τρυε τρυε be be οφ οφ αλλ αλλ οτηερ fulfilled, οτηερ fulfilled, ριϖερσ. ριϖερσ. but but time time Βυτ Βυτ cannot. cannot. ιφ ιφ ριϖερσ ριϖερσ And And this this χομε χομε will will ιντο ιντο be be equally equally εξιστενχε εξιστενχε true true ανδ of ανδ of all all περιση περιση other other rivers. rivers. ανδ ανδ τηε τηε But But σαμε σαμε if if rivers rivers παρτσ παρτσ come come οφ οφ into into τηε τηε existence existence εαρτη εαρτη and and ωερε ωερε perish perish νοτ νοτ αλωαψσ and αλωαψσ and the the same same μοιστ, μοιστ, parts parts τηε τηε of of σεα the σεα the earth earth μυστ μυστ were were νεεδσ νεεδσ not not χηανγε χηανγε always always χορρεσπονδινγλψ. moist, χορρεσπονδινγλψ. moist, the the sea sea must must needs needs Ανδ Ανδ ιφ change ιφ change τηε τηε σεα σεα ισ ισ αλωαψσ αλωαψσ correspondingly. correspondingly. αδϖανχινγ αδϖανχινγ ιν ιν ονε ονε And And πλαχε πλαχε if if the the ανδ ανδ sea sea ρεχεδινγ is ρεχεδινγ is always always advancing advancing ιν ιν ανοτηερ ανοτηερ in in ιτ one ιτ one ισ ισ place place χλεαρ χλεαρ and and τηατ τηατ receding receding τηε τηε σαμε σαμε in in another another παρτσ παρτσ it it οφ is οφ is clear clear τηε τηε ωηολε that ωηολε that the the εαρτη same εαρτη same parts parts αρε αρε of of νοτ νοτ the the αλωαψσ αλωαψσ whole whole earth earth ειτηερ ειτηερ are are not not σεα σεα always always ορ ορ λανδ, λανδ, either either βυτ βυτ sea sea τηατ τηατ or or land, land, αλλ αλλ but but τηισ τηισ that that χηανγεσ χηανγεσ all all this this changes changes ιν ιν χουρσε χουρσε in in course course οφ οφ τιμε. τιμε. of of time. time. INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy

Afro-Indian Sector: Mid-latitude Regimes Indian Monsoon INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy Sahel Region Planetary waves and Westerlies Summer Indian Monsoon InterTropical Convergence Zone

A scientific consideration of climate (I) Crucial experiments like the famous experiment of Michelson e Morley are not possible in climate science How is it possible a scientific investigation of climate?

A scientific consideration of climate (II) We can make experiments if we represent the climate system via a set of mathematical relations: the equation of climate. The equation of climate are very difficult, but they can be solved by numerical methods. We can then treat very complex mathematical equations, paying the price of a enormous number of elementary operations.

The next generation of numerical models will be like new, more powerful, telescopes or particle accelerators and they will allow us to look further into the working of the Earth climate more accurately, extensively and reliably.

INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy

The Structure of the CMCC Numerical Methods Climate Research Software Development INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy Agricultural Impacts: Forests Agricultural Impacts: Crops Impacts: Mediterranean Sea Numerical Simulations Impacts: The Coastal Zone Impacts: Energy and Economy Impacts: Health

CIRCE Strategy Climate Dynamics Impacts Policy Social Dynamics Case Studies

CMCC Supercomputing Center LAN 1 Gbit/s EC Vector/Parallel upercomputer SX-8R + 7 SX-9 50 cpu. TBytes RAM 1,2 TFlops Scalar/Parallel Supercomputer IBM Sp6 ~ 1000 cpu 3,2 TBytes RAM 18 TFlops Storage Area Network 12 Gbit/s aggregated Archive/Backup HA Cluster Server Disk Storage ~ 500 TBytes Tape Library 1800 M bytes/sec 3 PBytes

CIRCE Climate Change and Impact ResearCh: the Mediterranean Environment INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy An FP6 Project of the European Union Chair: Antonio Navarra and Laurence Tubiana

Several areas offering an integrated economic assessment of all these climate change impacts were considered to provide a domain specific social economic assessment of climate change impacts in the Mediterranean regions, : Tourism analyzed the relationship between climate and tourism flows. Specific region assessment (e.g. on the Balearic Island, on British outbound flows) have already been performed Migration identified the link between retirement patterns and human mobility with climate and performed a preliminary empirical analysis on the effects of climate change and extreme weather events on international migration flows Droughts and water scarcity built and estimated a model on the optimal reservoir dimension under climatic change uncertainty EURO-MEDITERRANEAN CENTER FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia

Relevant societal dynamics: One study method focuses on four societal dynamics of clear relevance: economic growth development policies changing patterns of unemployment disparities, evolving practices of risk management The energy and water sectors continue to be in the focus as two of the most important economic drivers in the region EURO-MEDITERRANEAN CENTER FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia

The CMCC-MED climate scenario simulations: climate simulations and projections with interactive Mediterranean Sea The model: CMCC-MED Heat Flux Water Flux Momentum SST Sea-ice Global Atmosphere COUPLER Oasis 3 ATMOSPHERE (dynamics, physics, prescribed gases and aerosols) ECHAM5 T159 (T255 ) ~ 80 Km (60 Km) SST Heat Flux Water Flux Momentum MINIPOG SST 9 March 2005 Global Ocean & Sea-Ice T, S, u, v, η OCEAN OPA/ORCA2 2º (1/4 ) SEA-ICE: LIM OCEAN Mediterranean NEMO/MFS 1/16, 71 vert. levs Oddo et al. (2009) INGV

The CMCC-MED climate scenario simulations: climate simulations and projections with interactive Mediterranean Sea model simulations: 1. Present climate (1985) and 1950 s climate simulations (CTRL). 2. Control simulation: 1951-2000 period with prescribed GHG and Aerosols (observed) and oceanic initial conditions from spin-up 3. Scenario simulation for the 2001-2100 period with GHG and Aerosols concentration prescribed according to IPCC-SRES A1B emission scenario INGV

The CMCC-MED climate simulations: projected future climate (A1B scenario) Assessment of the projected climate change signal in the Euro-Mediterranean region: preliminary results INGV

The CMCC-MED climate simulations: reproduction of the observed climate Mediterranean basin mean SST SST anomaly wrt 1980-2000 mean ( C) Time (year) INGV

The CMCC-MED climate simulations: projected future climate (A1B scenario) 2-meter temperature change in the Euro-Mediterranean region MODEL MEAN 1951-2000 MODEL MEAN 2001-2050 DIFF (2001-2050) - (1951-2000) DJF MODEL MEAN 1951-2000 MODEL MEAN 2001-2050 DIFF (2001-2050) - (1951-2000) JJA INGV

The CMCC-MED climate simulations: projected future climate (A1B scenario) precipitation change in the Euro-Mediterranean region MODEL MEAN 1951-2000 MODEL MEAN 2001-2050 DIFF (2001-2050) - (1951-2000) DJF MODEL MEAN 1951-2000 MODEL MEAN 2001-2050 DIFF (2001-2050) - (1951-2000) JJA INGV

The CMCC-MED climate simulations: projected future climate (A1B scenario) SST change in the Mediterranean Sea MODEL MEAN 1971-2000 MODEL MEAN 2021-2050 DJF MODEL MEAN 1971-2000 MODEL MEAN 2021-2050 JJA INGV

The CMCC-MED climate simulations: projected future climate (A1B scenario) SST change in the Mediterranean Sea DIFF MEAN (2021-2050) - (1971-2000) DIFF MEAN (2051-2070) - (1971-2000) DJF DIFF MEAN (2021-2050) - (1971-2000) DIFF MEAN (2051-2070) - (1971-2000) JJA INGV

The CMCC-MED climate simulations: projected future climate (A1B scenario) 2-meter temperature change in Anatolia MODEL MEAN 1951-2000 MODEL MEAN 2001-2050 DIFF (2001-2050) - (1951-2000) DJF MODEL MEAN 1951-2000 MODEL MEAN 2001-2050 DIFF (2001-2050) - (1951-2000) JJA INGV

The CMCC-MED climate simulations: projected future climate (A1B scenario) precipitation change in Anatolia MODEL MEAN 1951-2000 MODEL MEAN 2001-2050 DIFF (2001-2050) - (1951-2000) DJF MODEL MEAN 1951-2000 MODEL MEAN 2001-2050 DIFF (2001-2050) - (1951-2000) JJA INGV