Μεταβαίνοντας προς τη νέα ενεργειακή εποχή Προκλήσεις στην αγορά ηλεκτρισµού

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1 Μεταβαίνοντας προς τη νέα ενεργειακή εποχή Προκλήσεις στην αγορά ηλεκτρισµού Δρ. Ανδρέας Πουλλικκάς Ph.D, D.Tech, FIET Πρόεδρος Ρυθµιστικής Αρχής Ενέργειας Κύπρου Πρόεδρος Συµβουλίου Ενεργειακής Στρατηγικής 0

2 Περιεχόµενα Ευρωπαϊκή Ενεργειακή Στρατηγική Μακροπρόθεσµη στρατηγική (2050) Ενεργειακή Ένωση (2030) Προκλήσεις στην αγορά ηλεκτρισµού Ενεργειακό κόστος 1

3 Ευρωπαϊκή Ενεργειακή Στρατηγική Μακροπρόθεσµη στρατηγική 2

4 Night lights in 2000 Source: e2050,

5 Night lights in 2070 Source: e2050,

6 Global warming today! Source: J.R. Petit et al, Nature,

7 Global warming Source: U.S. National Climatic Data Center,

8 Increase of Earth global temperature Source: NASA,

9 Future energy systems Climate change Third industrial revolution Future energy economics 8

10 EU energy objectives greenhouse gas reduction sustainable production and consumption competition in electricity and natural gas markets security of supply 9

11 Current energy system 10

12 Future energy systems (optimistic scenario) 11

13 Future energy systems (optimistic scenario) 12

14 Future power systems Today Tomorrow: CCS, RES, DG and hydrogen storage, smartgrids Plug in vehicles Source: EC,

15 The Super Smart Grid after 2050* (may allow for 100% RES) * Poullikkas A., 2013, Sustainable Energy Development for Cyprus, ISBN:

Long term EU energy strategy (2050) A vision of carbon free EU Main ingredients of future sustainable

and storage Smartgrids Electric vehicles Storage devices Hydrogen acid gas water gas removal and cleaning

infrastructure generator steam turbine syngas CO/H2 coal exhaust Air separat.

16 Long term EU energy strategy (2050) A vision of carbon free EU Main ingredients of future sustainable energy systems: Large scale integration of renewable energy sources Distributed generation Carbon capture and storage Smartgrids Electric vehicles Storage devices Hydrogen acid gas water gas removal and cleaning shift gas cooling CO2 compression O2 ~ steam steam gasifier Development of new sustainable technologies and infrastructure generator steam turbine syngas CO/H2 coal exhaust Air separat. separat. unit N2 heat recovery steam generat.. generat condenser pump feed water combustion chamber compressor generator ~ air inlet turbine 15

17 Towards hydrogen economy in 2050* * Poullikkas A., 2013, Sustainable Energy Development for Cyprus, ISBN:

18 Ευρωπαϊκή Ενεργειακή Στρατηγική Ενεργειακή Ένωση 17

19 Energy Union a binding EU target of at least 40% less greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, compared to 1990 a binding target of at least 27% of renewable energy use at EU level an energy efficiency increase of at least 27% the completion of the internal energy market by reaching an electricity interconnection target of 15% increase energy security (natural gas South Corridor) 18

20 Connecting electricity markets TODAY POTENTIAL BY 2020 Countries meeting the 10% interconnection target Countries not meeting the 10% interconnection target Efforts need to be stepped up for those below the 10% target by 2020, mainly Spain and Cyprus, and in view of achieving the 15% target by

21 EU electricity market target model 20

22 Key aims of recent Winter Package To establish a common power market design across EU and to ensure the adequacy power systems To promote the better integration of electricity produced from RES into the market To advance energy efficiency, energy cleanliness and energy performance To implement rules on the governance of the Energy Union 21

23 Προκλήσεις στην αγορά ηλεκτρισµού 22

24 What is a power system? Largest and most complex manmade system Electrical power is somewhat like the air we breath We think about it only when it is missing PS should be operated with the goal of achieving: Highest reliability standards Lowest operation cost Minimum environmental impacts 23

25 Electricity market complexities* Energy market Power market (flow of energy) Ancillary services market Reserve (spinning, cold, primary, etc.) Voltage regulation Frequency regulation, etc. * Poullikkas A., 2016, Fundamentals of Energy Regulation, ISBN:

26 Electricity market functions Generation (competition) Transmission (monopoly) Distribution (monopoly) Supply (competition) 25

27 Competition vs monopoly Transmission grid Distribution grid 26

28 EU electricity market target model 27

29 Time (h) Daily load curve (the camel curve ) Conventional generation (MW) Time (h) 23:00 22:00 21:00 20:00 19:00 18:00 17:00 16:00 15:00 14:00 13:00 12:00 11:00 10:00 09:00 08:00 07:00 06:00 05:00 04:00 03:00 02:00 01:00 00:

30 Effect of PV generation on load curve (the duck curve ) Conventional / PV generation (MW) 900 PV generation 800 Conventional generation :00 22:00 21:00 20:00 19:00 18:00 17:00 16:00 15:00 14:00 13:00 12:00 11:00 10:00 09:00 08:00 07:00 06:00 05:00 04:00 03:00 02:00 01:00 00:00 0 Time (h) 29

31 Ενεργειακό Κόστος 30

32 EU reference scenario 2016 Electricity generation cost ( 2013 /MWh) 31

33 EU reference scenario 2016 ETS GHGs emissions (Mt CO 2 -eq) ETS carbon price ( 2013 /tco 2 ) 32

34 Power generation cost (year 2010)* CO2 trading cost Power generation cost ( c/kwh) O&M cost Fuel cost Capital cost Combined cycle with natural gas Wind Photovoltaics Concentrated solar power * Poullikkas A., 2010, The cost of integration of renewable energy sources, Accountancy 33

35 Power generation cost (year )* Power generation cost ( c/kwh) CO2 trading cost O&M cost Fuel cost Capital cost Fully developed CCS systems and/or CO 2 trading scheme Fully developed RES promotion mechanisms Combined cycle with natural gas Wind Photovoltaics Concentrated solar power * Poullikkas A., 2010, The cost of integration of renewable energy sources, Accountancy 34

36 Power generation cost (year )* Power generation cost ( c/kwh) Increased environmental cost Fully developed energy storage systems CO2 trading cost O&M cost Fuel cost Capital cost Combined cycle with natural gas Wind Photovoltaics Concentrated solar power * Poullikkas A., 2010, The cost of integration of renewable energy sources, Accountancy 35

37 Future energy cost* (for EU only) Energy additional cost ( ) 0 Action today = (2010) Action after 2020 Action after Today * Poullikkas A., 2010, The cost of integration of renewable energy sources, Accountancy 36

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