(Paw Dalgaard) NaCl. NaCl. (Dalgaard et al., 2002) (μ max ) (Lodge and Hinshelwood 1943)

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1 (Paw Dalgaard) NaCl. NaCl Trypone Soya BrohBrain Hear Infusion (Dalgaard e al., 2002). (μ ) (Lodge and Hinshelwood 1943)

2 (Dalgaard, 2002) MicroFi sofware N Log N ) = Log 1+ exp[ μ = LogN ( i )] N (1 + N 1 exp( μ ( 0 )). Log( N ) = LogN N N exp[ μ ( i )]. N (cfu g 1 )N μ (cfu g 1 )N N =N /2 i (h 1 ). Jameson effec Jørgensen, 2000; Ross e al., 2000a; Dalgaard, log cfu/g (Lm) (LAB) dlm d = Lm Lm LAB Lm μ 1 1 Lm LAB 3.14 LABLm. LAB Lm (cfu g 1 )LAB Lm dlm/d Lm (h 1 ) μ (cfu g 1 ) 218

3 (MC Clure e al. 1994) T %CO 2 ph a w (CO 2 ) T %CO 2 ph a w T (psychrooleran Gramnegaive baceria) %CO 2 ph a w T 'b' (Ross e al., 2000a) %CO 2 ph a w T. μ = b ( T T ( a w (% CO ) a 2 w ( ph ph ) ) % CO 2 ) / % CO fold increase bias facor (Ross, 1996) 219

4 %CO 2 ph a w T Ross and MC Meekin 1991, Miles e al. 1997, Presser e al. 1997, Ross e al. 2000a, Dalgaard % CO 2 ph a w T 187* Escherichia coli Liseria monocyogenes Saphylococcus aureus Vibrio parahaemolyicus Brochohrix hermosphaca Lacobacillus curvaus Phoobacerium phosphoreum Shewanella purefaciens CO 2 * Bias facor ( μ ) = 10 ( Σlog( μ prediced / μ observed ) / n) 5.14 Accuracy facor ( μ ) = 10 ( Σ log( μ prediced / μ observed ) / n) (Dalgaard, 2000; Ross e al., 2000a) ph NaCl/a w lacae (Dalgaard and Jørgensen, 1998; Ross e al., 2000a) NaCl/a w. (Ross e al., 2000b; Dalgaard, 2002) 220

5 .. (Seafood Spoilage Predicor, SSP) Shewanella pufefaciensphoobacerium phosphoreum (Dalgaard e al., 2002) (Food Spoilage Predicor, FSP) (Kousoumanis 2001, Rasmussen e al. 2002) psychrooleran pseudomonads Modeling Programme, PMP) Food MicroModel (Anon., 1997) Food MicroModel NaCl Food MicroModel Food MicroModel V. vulnificus (Mone Carlo simulaion sofware) 221

6 (Ross e al., 2000b; FAO/WHO, 2002) Anonymous Food MicroModel User Manual v Food Micromodel Ld., Surrey, UK. Dalgaard, P Fresh and lighly preserved seafood. In: Man,C.M.D. and A.A. Jones (eds) Shelf Life Evaluaion of Foods. Aspen Publishers Inc., London, UK. pp Dalgaard, P Modelling and predicion he shelflife of seafood. In: Bremner, H.A. (ed.) Safey and qualiy issues in fish processing. Woodhead Publishing Ld. pp Dalgaard, P. and L.V. Jørgensen Prediced and observed growh of Liseria monocyogenes in seafood challenge ess and in naurally conaaed cold smoked salmon. Inernaional Journal of Food Microbiology 40, Dalgaard, P., P. Buch and S. Silberberg Seafood Spoilage Predicor developmen and disribuion of a produc specific applicaion sofware. Inernaional Journal of Food Microbiology 73, FAO/WHO (Food and Agriculure Organizaion/World Healh Organizaion) Join FAO/WHO Aciviy on Risk Assessmen of Microbiological Hazards in Foods. Hazard idenificaion, exposure assessmen and hazard characerizarion of Vibrio spp. in seafood. Preliary documen. Jørgensen, L. V Spoilage and safey of coldsmoked salmon. Ph.D. hesis. Danish Insiue for Fisheries Research, Lyngby, and he Royal Veerinary and Agriculural Universiy, Frederiksberg, Denmark. Kousoumanis, K Predicive modeling of he shelf life of fish under nonisohermal condiions. Applied and Environmenal Microbiology 67, Lodge, R.M. and C.N. Hinshelwood Physiological aspecs of bacerial growh. Par IX. The lag phase of Bac. Lacis Aerogenes. Journal of he Chemical Sociey 288, MC Clure, P.J., C.D. Blackburn, M.B. Cole, P.S. Curis, J.E. Jones, J.D. Legan, I.D. Ogden and M.W. Peck Modelling he growh, survival and deah of microorganisms in foods: he UK Food Micromodel approach. Inernaional Journal of Food Microbiology 23, Miles, D.W., T. Ross, J. Olley and T.A. MC Meekin Developmen and evaluaion of a predicive model for he effec of emperaure and waer aciviy on he growh rae of Vibrio parahaemolyicus. Inernaional Journal of Food Microbiology 38, Presser, K.A., D.A. Rakowsky and T. Ross Modelling he growh rae of Escherichia coli as a funcion of ph and lacic acid concenraion. Applied and Environmenal Microbiology 63, Rasmussen, S.K.J., T. Ross, J. Olley and T.A. MC Meekin A process risk model for he shelflife of Alanic salmon filles. Inernaional Journal of Food Microbiology 73, Ross, T Indices for performance evaluaion of predicive models in food microbiology. Journal of Applied Baceriology 81, Ross, T.A. and T.A. MC Meekin Predicive microbiology: Applicaion of a square roo model. Food Ausralia 43, Ross, T., P. Dalgaard and S. Tienungoon 2000a. Predicive modelling of he growh and survival of Liseria in fishery producs. Inernaional Journal of Food Microbiology 62, Ross, T., E. Todd and M. Smih 2000b. Exposure assessmen of L. monocyogenes in readyoea foods. World Healh Organizaion, Geneva, and Food and Agriculure Organizaion of he Unied Naions, Rome, Ialy. 222

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