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1 (, ) :, O157 H7 :; ; ; Application of Quantitative Risk Assessment for Food2borne Pathogens CHEN Yan, LIU Xiu2mei (National Institute for Nutrition and Food Safety, Chinese CDC, Beijing , China) Abstract : Quantitative risk assessment could be the technical assessment of the nature and severity of a risk caused by a hazard. The application of quantitative risk assessment to the study of food2borne pathogens would be beneficial to the risk administration and communication. In the application of quantitative risk assessment for several important food2borne pathogens, included Salmonella spp, Vibrio spp, Listeria monocytogenes, Escherichia coli O157 H7, Campylobacter spp, Bacillus cereus and Enterobacter sakazakii were introduced. Key word : Risk Assessment ; Evaluation Studies ; Food Microbiology ; Food2Borne Pathogens,,, CAC, [1 ], (Quantitative microbiological risk assessment, QMRA) : ;, ( Salmonella spp. ) ( Vibrio spp. ) ( Listeria monocytogenes) ( Escherichia coli) O157 H7 ( Campylobacter spp. ) ( Bacillus cereus) ( Enterobacter sakazakii), 1 ( FSIS) 1998 :( ) : ( Salmonella enteritidis),, [2 ] EXCEL,@RISK 5 :, 468, 230 (01005 %) , 94 %,5 %,015 %,0105 % 20 %, :,(pasteurized egg products), 712,,12 %, 712, 8 %

2 337 Π ( FAOΠWHO) 2002 [3,4 ], ;,;,, ; ;, [5,6 ] 3, ,,, 2, ( Vibrio parahaemolyticus) ( Vibrio vulnificus) ( Vibrio cholerae) ( FDA) 2001 ( FDA - VPRA), 2005 [7,8 3 -, 2 826, FDA 10 4 Πg,, 10 4 Πg16 %, 3 % [9 ] QMRA, , () () () (),, FDA CAC,,, FAOΠWHO 2005 [10 ] FDA - VPRA, 0190 lg MPNΠg, 012 lg MPNΠg Πg,, ,, 300 Πg, ,717 3 Πg 30 Πg,, ,

3 FAOΠWHO 2006 O1 O139 [11 ] -,,, FDA 2001 [12 ] 3 : ( ) CAC,, ( 10 9 ) : ( ) ; 332 (12 350) ; 103 (11 190), 20 : (pate and meat spread) 5, : ( FSANZ) 2002 [13 ] FSANZ,, 1,3 d (), 1, : :; (3 %) ( < 50 CFUΠg) ; ;,, FAOΠWHO 2004 [14,15 ],, ; ,,, ( CFUΠg),,,,,, 4 O157 H7 Cassin [16 ] O157 H7, , O157 H7 219 %, ( ),, , O157 H7,

4 339 O157 H7 80 % 41 %16 % , ( Campylobacter jejuni), [17 ], O157 H7 5, 65 % 85 %, Π4, Christensen [17 ],, %, 99 % ( CFUΠg 10 CFUΠg) ; 96 %( 60 CFUΠg 214 CFUΠg) ; 25 Rosenquist [18 ] RISKEXCEL,, (95 % : ), 4,,2, 9617 %,9617 % ( 60 % 2 %),30 ( 21 % 017 %), Notermans [19 ],, 7 % 4 % 10 5 Πml10 6 Πml,10 9 McElroy [20 ] QMRA Crystal Ball , , 7 FAOΠWHO 2006 ( PIF) [21 ] CAC, ANALYTICA 3 :A PIF ;B PIF ;C, 3 PIF FAOΠWHO PIF [21 ], PIF,PIF, PIF PIF, ;70

5 PIF ;, ;, ( ), PIF, [1 ] JAYKUS L A. The application of quantitative risk assessment to microbial food safety risks [J ]. Crit Rev Microbiol, 1996, 22 : [2 ] U. S. Department of Agriculture Food Safety and Inspection Service. Salmonella enteritidis risk assessment : shell eggs and egg products [ RΠ OL ] http :ΠΠwww. fsis. usda. govπophsπriskπ. [3 ] FAOΠWHO. Risk assessments of Salmonella in eggs and broiler chickens: interpretative summary. MRA series 1 [ RΠOL ] http :ΠΠwww. who. intπfoodsafetyπpublicationsπmicroπenπsalm - summary. pdf. [4 ] FAOΠWHO. Risk assessments of Salmonella in eggs and broiler chickens. MRA series 2[M]. FAOΠWHO, [5 ],.. [J ]., 2004, 16 (3) : [6 ],.. [J ]., 2004, 16 (4) : [7 ] U. S. Food and Drug Administration. Draft risk assessment on the public health impact of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in raw molluscan shellfish [ RΠOL ] http :ΠΠwww. cfsan. fda. govπdmsπvprisk. html. [8 ] U. S. Food and Drug Administration. Quantitative risk assessment on the public health impact of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in raw oysters [ RΠ OL ] http :ΠΠwww. cfsan.fda. govπdmsπvpra2toc. html. [9 ],. [J ]., 2006, 18 (2) : [10 ] FAOΠWHO. Risk assessment of Vibrio vulnificus in raw oysters : interpretative summary and technical report. MRA series 8 [ RΠOL ] [11 ] FAOΠWHO. Risk assessment of choleragenic Vibrio cholerae O1 and O139 in warm2water shrimp in international trade, MRA series 9 [ RΠ OL ] http :ΠΠwww. who. intπfoodsafetyπpublicationsπmicroπ mra9. pdf. http :ΠΠwww. who. intπfoodsafetyπpublicationsπmicroπmra8. pdf. [12 ] U. S. FDAΠFSIS. Draft assessment of the relative risk to public health from foodborne Listeria monocytogenes among selected categories of ready2to2eat foods [ RΠOL ] http :ΠΠwww. foodsafety. govπ dmsπlmrisk. html. [13 ] Food Standards Australia New Zealand. Listeria risk assessment and risk management strategy, final assessment report [ RΠOL ] http :ΠΠ gov. auπ - srcfilesπp239listeriafar. pdf. [14 ] FAOΠWHO. Risk assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in ready2to2eat foods : interpretative summary. MRA series 4 [ RΠOL ] http :ΠΠ www. who. intπfoodsafetyπpublicationsπmicroπenπmra4. pdf. [15 ] FAOΠWHO. Risk assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in ready2to2eat foods : technical report. MRA series 5 [ RΠOL ] http :ΠΠwww. who. intπfoodsafetyπpublicationsπmicroπmra - listeriaπenπindex. html. [16 ] CASSIN M H, LAMMERDINGA M, TODD E C, et al. Quantitative risk assessment for Escherichia coli O157 H7 in ground beef hamburgers [J ]. Int J Food Microbiol, 1998, 41 (1) : [17 ] FORSYTHE S J. The microbiological risk assessment of food [ M]. Oxford : Blackwell Science Ltd, [18 ] ROSENQUIST H, NIELSEN N L, SOMMER H M, et al. Quantitative risk assessment of human campylobacteriosis associated with thermophilic Campylobacter species in chickens [J ]. Int J Food Microbiol. 2003, 83 (1) : [19 ] NOTERMANS S, DUFRENNE J, TEUNIS P, et al. A risk assessment study of Bacillus cereus present in pasterised milk [J ]. Food Microbiol, 1997, 14 : [20 ] McELROY D M, JAYKUS L A, FOEGEDING P M. A quantitative risk assessment for Bacillus cereus emetic disease associated with the consumption of Chinese2style rice [J ]. J Food Safety. 1999, 19 (3) : [21 ] FAOΠWHO. Enterobacter sakazakii and Salmonella in powdered infant formula : meeting report, MRA Series 10 [ RΠOL ] http :ΠΠwww. who. intπfoodsafetyπpublicationsπmicroπmra10. pdf. [ : ] :R15 ;TS20113 ;X82014 :E : (2008) (), 5, 4,,, (PET), ( PE), ( PVC), ( PE), (PP), (PS), (OTHERS)

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