10 8 ), nella2infected shell eggs. Because the predicted numbers coincide with the surveillance data quite well, the

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1 . (, ) :, ( ) (5 th 95 th : ),,, :;; The modeling of quantitative risk assessment on Salmonella in shell eggs in China Part : Description of characteristics of hazard and risk Zhao Zhijing Liu Xiumei (National Institute for Nutrition and Food Safety, Chinese CDC, Beijing ) Abstract : Based on the date obtained from surveys in China, a computative model was developed for the quantitative assessment of the risk of an epidemic. The model was used to assess the risk of Salmonella infec2 tion caused by comsumption of contaminated shell eggs. The model simulates a mean of (5 th 95 th percentile : ) of human illnesses per year resulted from the consumption of these Salmo2 nella2infected shell eggs. Because the predicted numbers coincide with the surveillance data quite well, the model can be considered a powerful tool to describe the farm2to2table continuum and to predict risk. Several mitigations were evaluated through changing some input variables and simulation showed mitigation of control2 ling storage temperature and time may potentially be most effective in reducing the total number of human ill2 ness. The model can continually be refined and updated for use in future risk assessments for shell eggs. Fur2 thermore, the farm2to2table approach provides a framework for developing similar risk assessment methods for other pathogen2product pairs. Key Words : Salmonella ;Ovum ;Risk Assessment I, [1 ], :(2001BA804A03), (2001DIB00148), ( ) : : This work was supported by the Grant from National Science and Tech2 nology Program Funds ( 2001BA804A03 ) and the Special Funds (2001DIB00148) of Ministry of Science and Technology and the Funds of National Natural Science Foundation of China. ( ) ( ) 295

2 1 111 CAC [2,3 ] ( ), [1 ] Excel,Monte 112, [1 ], ,27 % [4 ],,1Π3,Pert (20 %,30 %,40 %) Humphrey [5 ],10 8 CFUΠg, 10 7 (Uni2 form(6,8) ) log Pert (0,4, 7) log 07, 113 [611 ],, [12 ], ( Shigella dysenteriae) [13 ] Beta2Poisson P = 1 - [ 1 + NΠ ] -,,,, ,20, 060 ; 10, [14 ] 10,,, 21116,2,06,Beta2 Poisson P(ill) = 1 - [1 + NΠ] - = ,= Normal (211159,20, 0,60), = ,= Normal (21116,2, 0,6) 114,,,; ( HIV ),, [15 16 ],,, [17 ] 20 %,,Pert (0115, 0120, ) 2,(, ) , (5 %95 % : ), 258 (5 %95 % : ) 24 %, , Π, CHINESE JOURNAL OF FOOD HYGIENE

3 , 144,1, 1 % ,( ) Π % 95 % ,, [18 ] Chalker [19 ] 1Π39,,Pert 1ΠPert (515,19,211) Aserkoff [20 ] 1ΠPert (4,29,379), Todd [21 ] 1Π [18 ], ( % ; [22 ] % ; [23 ] % [24 ] ),,,,,( 100 %),,1520 [25 ],, 1ΠPert (5,20,100),, S + NegBinomial ( S + 1, p), S, p,1πpert (5,20,100) S,,Normal ( S (1 - p)πp, ( S (1 - p) ) 1Π2 Πp),, [26 ],,, 30 %50 % , 814 %1219 %, [27 ], Pert (5 %,10 %,20 %),, ,5 %95 % ( ),,,,,, (,, < 011 %21 %, ),,, ( ) 297

4 213,, [1 ],,Spearman 2, - 1 () + 1 (),,, 0, ,,,,, 214,, CAC,,,,,,2 2 % :a 50 %, 50 %b, 50 %, 50 %, 50 %, c 50 %d 2,,,50 %, 50 % ;,,;,, 3,3 % 50 %, 80 %, 20 % , 79 %,,,,, 3 ( General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs, 298 CHINESE JOURNAL OF FOOD HYGIENE

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