2007 8 GDP 3 : GDP, GDP (intangible investment),, GDP ; ; ;,,,,,, : GDP 2006 2,2005 GDP 182321, 124795 ( IMF, 2006a) 2005 810702, GDP 22591188, 1811 %, 1988, GDP,, ( IMF, 2006b),2004 GDP 73342154,, 6312 %(116051185 ), (38172121 ) (32908 ) (23915169 ) GDP, 2005 GDP 34, 8,2005 18 %, 26 %, 12 %, 6617 % 4612 % ( IMF,2006c), 2030,, 2020 (,2005, 104 105 ) 2006 13, GDP 3,, :400067, :xsong @sdccd. edu ; 171 2006 GDP, 8877018, 68 %(130492199 ) GDP 87 (6760 ), 15152 %(43555 ) IMF (2005) 2003,2020 140 % World Bank (2001) 21
: GDP 75 %, GDP (Miller,2006, p. 201),,, GDP,,, GDP,, GDP, GDP, GDP GDP :,,, ;,, ;,GDP,,, 90, GNP,, GDP GNP,,,,,, 25 %,24 %,?,, GNP, GNP,,GNP,, GNP,,,,, GDP GNP,GDP, :,GDP, GDP, GDP, GDP, 15000, GDP 15 %, 25 %, GNP GNP? 22
2007 8 3100,, GDP (Net Economic Welfare), (good), (bad),,, GDP,GDP (leisure),,,gdp,gdp,,,,,,,, 2000, 30 (levels of happiness),, 30,, (Blanchflower and Oswald, 2004,pp11359 1387) GDP, HDI(Human Development Index), GDP, Edgar Feige, 1987, GDP 20 %, 90 16 %, GDP 15 % Bade and Parkin (2007, p150) ;O Sullivan and Sheffrin(2006), GDP60 %, GDP,, ; 65, 57 ( ) 56 ( ), GDP, ABC 2006 10 16, 6100, 215 (2500 ), 19, 4700, 16 %, 150 3 NBC,2020 415,,,, (2007a) Blanchflower Oswald,Blanchflower, O Sullivan Sheffrin?, : 30, ; 40 O Sullivan and Sheffrin (2006) Easterlin Marcelli, 48, 51,, 5 Silverstein(2006) 23
: GDP,2004 GDP,HDI HDI : GDP, HDI, GDP GDP,,,,, GDP, 30 Kuznets 30, Simon Kuznets, (NBER),, Kuznets 1971 Kuznets,,,, (R&D), 1946 Bugsy Siegel Flamingo 600, AT&T,, GDP Kuznets,,, (ideas and innovation),, GDP,,, 2000 2003 11390, 2006 2 13 Michael Mandel :,, Mandel (2006),,, GDP, :,, 2005 2240,, : Investment is an action taken today that has costs today but provides benefits in the future1 O Sullivan and Sheffrin(2006) 24
2007 8 9780, 1, 90, 1996 1997,,, BEA(Bureau of Economic Analysis) Landefeld 1999, Kuznets GDP 60,Landefeld BEA, GDP, 1996 GDP 1150, GDP 115 % 1500, 1000,, ;,, Landefeld, ( ),, 21,, (outsourcing),, 2000, 42 %, 110, 2 %, 10,,, 2003 2004, IBM 1, 29 %,, GDP,BEA,, R&D, GDP Landefeld,, GDP, GDP,, ;, GDP, 2001,2006 2005,,, 10 Exxon Mobil, 9 (intangibility index), R&D GDP (knowledge2adjusted GDP), GDP GDP 25
: GDP, 2001, 014 %, 2003 300,, R&D,, GDP, GDP,,GDP,,,GDP, GDP 2006 1 27 BEA,2005 4 GDP 111 %,,,,2006 516 % GDP, GDP,,, GDP, (discouraged workers),,, (built2in),,? GDP,,,, GDP,,, GDP, ( ) GDP,13 GDP GDP,,, 2005, GDP,, 40 % (World Bank, 2005, pp116 17),, 011 %,, 30,,,, 70 2318 % 2511 %, 1813 %, 76 %, GDP, GDP, GDP 5, 41 % 26
2007 8, GDP,, GDP (daycare center), GDP, 65,, 70 55,, 10 GDP ( ) GDP,, GDP, GDP, GDP,,,,, ( ) GDP,,,,, 55, 10,,,,,,,,,,,,, ( ) GDP, 80 % 20,,,, GDP,, GDP (2006) 1500,,, GDP,, EIC( Earned Income Credit) 3, 3 ;,,, 50 55, 55 60,,, 55 GDP 27
: GDP,,,,,, 27,,, ( ) GDP, GDP, GDP,,, 2005 7, 2005 330, 60, 130 7 (Colvin, 2005),,,,,, ( ),,, McKinsey Global Institute, 49 %,44 %,25 % 19 %,,,,,, 2004 3 23, 206, 13 1012,1,, GDP 2004, 54 %, 26 %, Engardio and Roberts with Bremner (2004) McKinsey Global Institute, 2008, 35 %, 160, 11 %, 76 Engardio (2005),,,,,,,,, 18, (cool) (nerd),,,,,,,,,, (2004) 28
2007 8 13 %,52 %,31 %,McKinsey, 2008,410,Forrester Research, 2015,340, 1400, 10?,,, GDP,,,,,, GDP,, GDP 1993 2004 10 %,2005 GDP, GDP GDP 115 %, 1514 % GDP, GDP 1992 011 ( IMF, 2006b) 1387.,2006 :,,2004 :, 7,2007a :, 6 26,2007b :,,2006 : GDP, 2,2005 :, Bade, R., and M. Parkin, 2007, Foundations of Macroeconomics, 3rd edition, Pearson Addison2Wesley. Blanchflower, D., and A. Oswald, 2004, Well2Being over Time in Britain and the USA, Journal of Public Economics 88, pp. 1359 Colvin, G., 2005, America the 972LB. Weakling? Can Americans compete? Fortune, July 25. Engardio, P., and D. Roberts with B. Bremner, 2004, Special Report : The China Price, Business Week, December 6. Engardio, P., 2005, Special Report : A New World Economy : China and India2the Challenge, Business Week, August 22. Heston, A., R. Summers, and A. Bettina, Penn World Table, Center for International Comparisons at the University of Pennsylvania. IMF, 2003, World Economic Outlook. IMF, 2005, World Economic Outlook Database1 2004 12 6, The China Price (the three scariest words in U. S. industry), Shock and Awe Engardio and Roberts with Bremner (2004),, (virtually),,, (2007b) 2000 2001,, 7 % 8 % (,2006) 2 %,,,, ;, 2006 5 20, GDP, Iritani (2006) 29
: GDP IMF, 2006a, International Financial Statistics, March. IMF, 2006b, World Economic Outlook, April. IMF, 2006c, World Economic Outlook Database. Iritani, E., 2006, In China, a Giant Statistics Problem2An Effort Is Underway to Unearth More Reliable and Timely Economic Information, Los Angeles Times, May 20. Mandel, M., 2006, Unmasking the Economy : Why It s So Much Stronger than You Think, Business Week, February 13. Miller, R., 2006, Economics Today, the Macro View, 13 th edition, New York : Pearson Addison2Wesley. O Sullivan, A., and S. Sheffrin, 2006, Macroeconomics : Principles and Tools, 4 th edition, Prentice Hall. Silverstein, S., 2006, Happy?Let s Sum It Up, Los Angeles Times, July 3. United Nations Human Development Report, 2004, http :ΠΠwww. undp.orgπhdro. World Bank, 1997, China 2020, New York : Oxford University Press. World Bank, 2000, Entering the 21 st Century : World Development Report 1999Π2000, New York : Oxford University Press. World Bank, 2001, Global Economic Prospects. World Bank, 2005, Global Economic Prospects, September. Some Issues and Statistics about China s GDP Song Xiaochuan (Chongqing Technology & Business University ; San Diego Mesa College) Abstract:This paper explores the basic concept of GDP measure and its limitations in a historical perspective. Particularly, it shows how the government s decades2old counting system misses the growing portion of GDP2intangible investment, and fails to capture the emerging knowledge2based economy. The paper has reassessed the Chinese economy, its position and impact in this dramatically evolving global economy. The main arguments of the paper are : the current GDP measures do not include the non2 market economic activities, underground economy, and leisure time ; underestimate the value and growth potential in service sector; have no way of tracking the billions of dollars companies spend each year on innovation and product design, brand building, employee training, or any of the other intangible investments ; miss the rapidly increasing knowledge component, especially the education investment in the Chinese economy. The paper concludes that, due to historical, cultural, and institutional factors, these omissions and underestimates in China are much bigger than those of industrial countries and the other developing countries, therefore, the actual Chinese economy and its growth rate, especially its growth potential are much larger than the official statistics. Key Words : GDP ; Intangible Investment ; Knowledge Economy JEL Classification : E01, E26, O53 ( : ) ( : ) 30