336 2008 20 4 (, 100050) :, O157 H7 :; ; ; Application of Quantitative Risk Assessment for Food2borne Pathogens CHEN Yan, LIU Xiu2mei (National Institute for Nutrition and Food Safety, Chinese CDC, Beijing 100050, China) Abstract : Quantitative risk assessment could be the technical assessment of the nature and severity of a risk caused by a hazard. The application of quantitative risk assessment to the study of food2borne pathogens would be beneficial to the risk administration and communication. In the application of quantitative risk assessment for several important food2borne pathogens, included Salmonella spp, Vibrio spp, Listeria monocytogenes, Escherichia coli O157 H7, Campylobacter spp, Bacillus cereus and Enterobacter sakazakii were introduced. Key word : Risk Assessment ; Evaluation Studies ; Food Microbiology ; Food2Borne Pathogens,,, CAC, [1 ], (Quantitative microbiological risk assessment, QMRA) : ;, ( Salmonella spp. ) ( Vibrio spp. ) ( Listeria monocytogenes) ( Escherichia coli) O157 H7 ( Campylobacter spp. ) ( Bacillus cereus) ( Enterobacter sakazakii), 1 ( FSIS) 1998 :(30600499) : ( Salmonella enteritidis),, [2 ] EXCEL,@RISK 5 :, 468, 230 (01005 %) 661 633, 94 %,5 %,015 %,0105 % 20 %, :,(pasteurized egg products), 712,,12 %, 712, 8 %
337 Π ( FAOΠWHO) 2002 [3,4 ], ;,;,, ; ;, [5,6 ] CAC, @RISK,, 3, - 513 10 7,,, 2, ( Vibrio parahaemolyticus) ( Vibrio vulnificus) ( Vibrio cholerae) ( FDA) 2001 ( FDA - VPRA), 2005 [7,8 ], @RISKCAC, 3 -, 2 826, 723 1 903 190 10 FDA 10 4 Πg,, 10 4 Πg16 %, 3 % [9 ] QMRA, CAC, @RISK,, 25 000 -, 619 10-7 () 117 10-5 () 519 10-5 () 416 1 0-6 (),, FDA CAC,,, FAOΠWHO 2005 [10 ] FDA - VPRA, 0190 lg MPNΠg, 012 lg MPNΠg 57 00080 Πg,, 4 1117 1212 810 015,, 300 Πg, 5126 10-6,717 3 Πg 30 Πg,, 1109 10-7 8120 10-7,
338 2008 20 4 0116 112 FAOΠWHO 2006 O1 O139 [11 ] -,,, 01009019 3 FDA 2001 [12 ] 3 : ( ) CAC,, ( 10 9 ) : 14 000(3 125781 250) ; 332 (12 350) ; 103 (11 190), 20 : (pate and meat spread) 5, : ( FSANZ) 2002 [13 ] FSANZ,, 1,3 d (), 1, : :; (3 %) ( < 50 CFUΠg) ; ;,, FAOΠWHO 2004 [14,15 ],, 911 01012 0146 01000 66 ; 01005 01000 014 01021 01000 002 5,,, (0104 100 CFUΠg),,,,,, 4 O157 H7 Cassin [16 ] O157 H7, - @RISK, 25 000, O157 H7 219 %, 1 10-12 (10-22 10-2 ),, 1 511 10-5 317 10-5 317 10-6 119 10-7, O157 H7,
339 O157 H7 80 % 41 %16 % 5 Fazil @RISK,, 10 000, ( Campylobacter jejuni), [17 ], O157 H7 5, 65 % 85 %, 6 310 1Π4, 2123 10-4 10 10 270 Christensen [17 ],, 6 000 1 26 0001 1999 96 %, 99 % ( 1 000 CFUΠg 10 CFUΠg) ; 96 %( 60 CFUΠg 214 CFUΠg) ; 25 Rosenquist [18 ] CAC, @ RISKEXCEL,, - 2 1 2 1 14 000 (95 % :7 75320 942), 4,,2, 9617 %,9617 % ( 60 % 2 %),30 ( 21 % 017 %), 1829 6 Notermans [19 ],, 7 % 4 % 10 5 Πml10 6 Πml,10 9 McElroy [20 ] QMRA Crystal Ball 20 30 60 4, 4 5150 10-2 6180 10-2 2113 10-3 6111 10-3, 7 FAOΠWHO 2006 ( PIF) [21 ] CAC, ANALYTICA 3 :A PIF ;B PIF ;C, 3 PIF FAOΠWHO PIF [21 ], PIF,PIF, PIF PIF, ;70
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