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= = = www.clmatechange.cn 66!"#$% =2015 GDP /% 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9!!"!"#$%& 1.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 6!"#$ %&' GDP Fg. 6 GDP losses under the polcy scenaros compared wth the baselne scenaro OKS==!"#$% ====!"#$%&'($%)*+,-./!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&!"#$ 20%GDP!!"#$%&'()*+,- ====!"#$%3!"! GDP!"#$%&'()*+,-./01!"#$%!"#$%&'()*+!"#$%&'()*+!"#$%!!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"#$%&!"#$% 20% J20%!"# 16% J17.5%! 3==!"#$% Table 3 Model senstvty analyss %!" GDP CO 2!!"#$%&'()*+,-./)01 20% 5.5 8.1 0.9 14.7!"#$%&'()*+,-./)01 20% J4.7 J7.3 J0.8 J14.3!"#$%&'()*+%,- 20% 1.6 16.0 3.0 J19.6!"#$%&'()*+%,- 20% J0.6 J17.5 J2.9 30.3!"#$%&' 20% 2.1 3.7 0.5 5.6!"#$%&' 20% J2.1 J4.0 J0.4 J3.0! 3.0% J2.9%!"#$% 30.3% J19.6% P==! ====!"#$%&'CGE!"!"#$%&'()*!"#$%& (1)!"#$% &'() CO 2!"#$%&2015!"#$% 0.51 0.88 t CO 2 (2)!"#$%&'()*+,!!"#$%&'()*+,-./ (3)!" GDP 2015 GDP 0.7%0.9%!"#$%&GDP 0.1!"!"#$%& 90 (4)!"#$%&' 149 /t CO 2!"#$%&2015!" 99 /t CO 2 ====!"#$%&'()*+,!"!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"!"#!"#$%&'()*+,!"#$%&!"#$!"#!"#$%&'()*+,-./0123!"#$%&'()*+,)-.!!"#$%&'()*+!,-&."/0!"#$! [1] Brendemoen A, Vennemo H. A clmate treaty and the Norwegan economy: a CGE assessment [J]. The Energy Journal, 1994 (1): 77-93 [2] Hakonsen L, Mathesen L. Toward a more comprehensve cost measure for CO 2 -reductons [R]. Norway, 1995 [3] Nakata T, Lamont A. Analyss of the mpacts of carbon taxes on energy systems n Japan [J]. Energy Polcy, 2000, 29 (2): 159-166 [4] Scrmgeour F, Oxley L, Fata K. Reducng carbon emssons? The relatve effectveness of dfferent types of envronmental tax: the case of New
www.clmatechange.cn 1!!"#$%&'(!"# 67 Zealand [J]. Envronmental Modellng & Software, 2005, 20 (11): 1439-1448 [5] Wssema W, Dellnk R. AGE analyss of the mpact of a carbon energy tax on the Irsh economy [J]. Ecologcal Economcs, 2007, 61 (4): 671-683 [6] Edwards T H, Hutton J P. Allocaton of carbon permts wthn a country: a general equlbrum analyss of the Unted Kngdom [J]. Energy Economcs, 2001, 23 (4): 371-386 [7] Bo hrnger C, Welsch H. Contracton and convergence of carbon emssons: an ntertemporal mult-regon CGE analyss [J]. Journal of Polcy Modelng, 2004, 26 (1): 21-39 [8] Losel R. Envronmental clmate nstruments n Romana: a comparatve approach usng dynamc CGE modellng [J]. Energy Polcy, 2009, 37 (6): 2190-2204 [9],,.!"#$%&'()*+,-"./0 [J].!", 2010 (4): 1-9 [10] Lu C, Zhang X, He J. A CGE analyss to study the mpacts of energy nvestment on economc growth and carbon doxde emsson: a case of Shaanx Provnce n western Chna [J]. Energy, 2010, 35 (11): 4319-4327 [11] Da H C, Masu T, Matsuoka Y, et al. Assessment of Chna s clmate commtment and non-fossl energy plan towards 2020 usng hybrd AIM/ CGE model [J]. Energy Polcy, 2011, 39 (5): 2875-2887 [12],,.!"#$ CGE!"#$%&!" [J].! :, 2013 (2): 77-80 [13],,,.!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"# : 30 CGE!" [J].!"#$%, 2012, 8 (1): 60-67 [14]!"#$%&'(.!"#$ 2007 [M]. :!", 2009 [15]!"#$!%,!"#$%.!"#$%=[M]. :!"#$, 2009-2013 [16]!"#.!"#$ [M]. :!"#$, 2008-2013 [17] Mnstry of Scence and Technology, Economy and Energy. Supply of an nstrument for estmatng the emssons of green house effect gases coupled wth the energy matrx [R/OL]. 2010 [2014-06-11]. http://ecen.com/ matrz/eee24/coefycn.htm [18]!"#$.!"# [M]. :!"#$, 2008-2013 [19]!"#$%&'(.!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"=[EB/OL]. 2011 [2014-07-01]. http://www.gddpc.gov.cn/fgzl/ fzgh/ztgh/sewghgy/201106/t20110615_155249.htm [20]!"#$%&'(.!"#$!"=[EB/OL]. 2013 [2014-07-01]. http://www.gddpc.gov.cn/fgzl/fzgh/zxgh/sewzx/ 201309/t20130926_220199.htm [21]!"#$%&'(.!"#$%&'()%*+,- [EB/OL]. 2013 [2014-07-01]. http://www.gddpc.gov.cn/xxgk/tztg/ 201311/t20131126_230325.htm Economc Impacts of Carbon Emsson Tradng: Case Study on Guangdong Provnce Ren Songyan 1, Da Hancheng 2, Wang Peng 1, Zhao Daqng 1, Masu Toshhko 2 1 Guangzhou Insttute of Energy Converson, Chnese Academy of Scences, Guangzhou 510640, Chna; 2 Natonal Insttute for Envronmental Studes, Tsukuba 305-8506, Japan Abstract: Usng a dynamc two-regon computable general equlbrum model, ths study conducted a quanttatve assessment of the mpacts of carbon emsson tradng on the economy of Guangdong Provnce, the partcpatng sectors and the carbon tradng prces. The results show that, n accordance wth the energy conservaton scenaro to be completed by 2015 (19.5% declne n carbon ntensty), GDP wll lose 0.7% compared wth the baselne scenaro; accordng to a low-carbon scenaro to be completed by 2015 (20.5% declne n carbon ntensty), GDP wll lose 0.9% compared wth the baselne scenaro; f carbon tradng polcy s mplemented n the low-carbon scenaro, GDP wll lose 0.8% relatve to the baselne scenaro. The results show that the carbon tradng polcy can save about 9 bllon yuan RMB. Ths analyss supports Guangdong Provnce to acheve both economc development and carbon emsson reducton target. Key words: computable general equlbrum model; Guangdong Provnce; carbon tradng; economc mpact