Catastrophes naturelles et interruption d activité Yanos Zylberberg CREI - Pompeu Fabra Gestion et mesure des risques environnementaux, 24 jan. 2012 1/ 18
Compta! Fonction de production: Theorie: Empirique: y i t = dyt,t 1 Y t 1 = dat,t 1 A t 1 Y t = A tk α t L 1 α t + α dkt,t 1 K t 1 + (1 α) dlt,t 1 L t 1 y i t = β d ( d i t E [ d i t]) + ỹ i t + ε i t 2/ 18
Stratégies empiriques Equation: Identification: y i t = β dd i t + β pp i t + β xx t 1 + ν i + γ t + ε i t d i t = α ee i t + α pp i t + α xx t 1 + ρ i + δ t + µ i t (1) y i t = β d di t + β pp i t + β xx t 1 + ν i + γ t + ε i t (2) X t 1= Gross capital formation, current account, exports, government consumption and reserves (S) 3/ 18
Contribution Machine de guerre! 30000 catastrophes: exhaustif. mesures objectives. Interpretation Littérature: Strobl (2011), Noy (2009), Raddatz (2009) 4/ 18
y i t: World Development Indicators d i t: Sources (180 pays, 1980-2006) EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database e i t: Joint Typhoon Warning Center et PREVIEW Global Cyclones Asymmetric Wind speed Profile USGS et National Geophysical Data Center Gridded Population of the World (CIESIN) 5/ 18
Dataclysm (180 pays, 1980-2006) Figure: Cyclones depuis 1980 et densité de population en 2000 6/ 18
Dans une zone ζ: densité d e energie e Construction Mesure locale: d e if e ē Mesure aggrégée: 1 e ē d e dζ 7/ 18
Description - carte 100 pays, 500 cyclones and 600 tremblements de terre 8/ 18
Description - table VARIABLES Unaffected Cyclones Earthquakes Both Countries 91 46 34 39 Population ( 000 000, 2006) 1 019 1 016 414 4 056 GDP per capita (2006) 14737 9496 15584 7297 Private credit (% GDP, 2006) 43.43 54.80 79.11 57.36 Agriculture (% GDP, 2006) 14.51 15.76 12.24 11.63 Manufacture (% GDP, 2006) 13.42 13.11 13.00 15.74 Industry (% GDP, 2006) 34.77 30.18 25.93 28.78 Reported losses (cyclones) 0 0 7.70 4.64 Reported affected (cyclones) 0 0 3.01 5.05 Affected (cat. 2 cyclones) 0 0 57.52 56.29 Affected (cat. 4 cyclones) 0 0 12.66 3.12 Reported losses (quakes) 0 0.48 0 0.26 Reported affected (quakes) 0 1.22 0 0.40 Affected (VI quakes) 0 14.64 0 36.67 Affected (VIII quakes) 0 0.96 0 0.91 9/ 18
Exemples Country/Year Reports Obj. measures Earthquakes Country Year Losses Affected Thresholds V VII VIII Pakistan 2005.218.033.101.014.001 Japan (Kobe) 1995.019.004.649.100.017 Salvador 2001.112.223 6.89.293.038 Chile (Santiago) 1985.091.122 7.01.343.112 Cyclones Country Year Losses Affected Thresholds 1 3 5 US (Katrina) 2005.010.002.106.007.001 US (Andrew) 1992.008.006.152.034.004 Honduras (Mitch) 1998.729.353.919.025.001 Japan (Songda) 2004.002.000.476.109.005 10/ 18
30% Cyclones 11/ 18
10% Tremblements de terre 12/ 18
VARIABLE Annual damages declared in EM-DAT (% GDP) Energy density.00248*** (cyclones) (.00017) s 0.01171***.00399***.00552***.00476***.00435*** (cyclones) (.00079) (.00099) (.00097) (.00097) (.00095) s 1.02540*** -.00417.00307.00336 (cyclones) (.00202) (.00275) (.00283) (.00279) s 2.06465***.02403***.02185*** (cyclones) (.00419) (.00592) (.00585) s 3.05998***.08820*** (cyclones) (.00624) (.00668) s 4 -.14950*** (cyclones) (.01364) Energy density.00024 (quakes) (.00016) s 0.00078*.00052.00022.00040.00041 (quakes) (.00046) (.00072) (.00070) (.00070) (.00069) s 1.00155.01031***.01050***.01084*** (quakes) (.00271) (.00379) (.00379) (.00374) s 2 -.03297*** -.03086*** -.03248*** (quakes) (.01077) (.01104) (.01091) s 3 -.02248 -.04354 (quakes) (.02690) (.02920) s 4.10390* (quakes) (.05959) Adj. R-squared.05540.05779.08670.12980.14550.16596 p-value(quakes).132.091.158.003.004.001 p-value(cyclones).000.000.000.000.000.000 Propensities yes yes yes yes yes yes FE country country country country country country Observations 5,171 5,171 5,171 5,171 5,171 5,171 13/ 18
Specification (S) - second stage Panel A y t y t 1 d t (% GDP) -0.055-0.139-0.388-0.390*** -0.374*** -0.386*** (0.041) (0.322) (0.252) (0.136) (0.134) (0.104) Instruments - s c,q 0 s c,q 0,1 s c,q 0,1,2 s c,q 0,1,2,3 s c,q 0,1,2,3,4 Controls - - - - - - Observations 5,098 5,098 5,098 5,098 5,098 5,098 Panel B y t y t 1 d t (% GDP) -0.059-0.008-0.444* -0.455*** -0.444*** -0.447*** (0.107) (0.310) (0.238) (0.095) (0.093) (0.094) Instruments - s c,q 0 s c,q 0,1 s c,q 0,1,2 s c,q 0,1,2,3 s c,q 0,1,2,3,4 Controls yes yes yes yes yes yes Observations 3,986 3,986 3,986 3,986 3,986 3,986 Panel C y t d t (% GDP) -0.137** 0.054-0.133-0.200* -0.190* -0.222** (0.053) (0.139) (0.124) (0.107) (0.101) (0.099) Instruments - s c,q 0 s c,q 0,1 s c,q 0,1,2 s c,q 0,1,2,3 s c,q 0,1,2,3,4 Controls yes yes yes yes yes yes Observations 3,986 3,986 3,986 3,986 3,986 3,986 14/ 18
Pertes de capital: y = α Y }{{} K d d.4 }{{}.05 + (1 α) dl L }{{} + da A }{{} 15/ 18
Pertes de capital: y = α Y }{{} K d d }{{}.4.05 + (1 α) dl }{{ L} 0 + da A }{{} 15/ 18
Pertes de capital: y = α Y }{{} K d d }{{}.4.05 + (1 α) dl }{{ L} 0 + da A }{{}.35 15/ 18
Rigidités salariales: dl L = dk K y = α Y }{{} K d d.4 }{{}.05 + (1 α) dl L }{{} + da A }{{} 16/ 18
Rigidités salariales: dl L = dk K y = α Y }{{} K d d }{{}.4.05 + (1 α) dl }{{ L}.10 + da A }{{} 16/ 18
Rigidités salariales: dl L = dk K y = α Y }{{} K d d }{{}.4.05 + (1 α) dl }{{ L}.10 + da A }{{}.25 16/ 18
Complementarités sectorielles: ( 1 K = 0 ) 1/ρ K ρ i di Avec ρ = 1/2 et un choc concentré sur un secteur: y = }{{}.4 ( (1 α Y ) K d d) 1/ρ 1 }{{}.10 + (1 α) dl L }{{} + da A }{{} Le résidu est petit mais ça ressemble à ce qu on appelle de l interruption d activité... 17/ 18
Complementarités sectorielles: ( 1 K = 0 ) 1/ρ K ρ i di Avec ρ = 1/2 et un choc concentré sur un secteur: y = }{{}.4 ( (1 α Y ) K d d) 1/ρ 1 + (1 α) dl }{{}}{{ L}.10.20 + da A }{{} Le résidu est petit mais ça ressemble à ce qu on appelle de l interruption d activité... 17/ 18
Complementarités sectorielles: ( 1 K = 0 ) 1/ρ K ρ i di Avec ρ = 1/2 et un choc concentré sur un secteur: y = }{{}.4 ( (1 α Y ) K d d) 1/ρ 1 + (1 α) dl }{{}}{{ L}.10.20 + da A }{{}.10 Le résidu est petit mais ça ressemble à ce qu on appelle de l interruption d activité... 17/ 18
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Merci! yzylberberg@crei.cat 19/ 18
VARIABLE Annual damages declared in EM-DAT (% GDP) Energy density.00248*** (cyclones) (.00017) s 0.01173***.00401***.00554***.00478***.00437*** (cyclones) (.00077) (.00096) (.00094) (.00094) (.00093) s 1.02542*** -.00410.00311.00338 (cyclones) (.00196) (.00267) (.00275) (.00271) s 2.06456***.02409***.02197*** (cyclones) (.00407) (.00575) (.00568) s 3.05973***.08790*** (cyclones) (.00606) (.00648) s 4 -.14935*** (cyclones) (.01324) Energy density -.00017 (quakes) (.00016) s 0 -.00042 -.00052 -.00082 -.00063 -.00063 (quakes) (.00045) (.00070) (.00068) (.00068) (.00067) s 1.00072.00987***.01016***.01056*** (quakes) (.00264) (.00368) (.00368) (.00363) s 2 -.03453*** -.03184*** -.03344*** (quakes) (.01046) (.01072) (.01059) s 3 -.02810 -.03913 (quakes) (.02612) (.02834) s 4.05452 (quakes) (.05784) Adj. R-squared.05959.06192.09232.13762.15406.17512 p-value(quakes).263.348.681.008.011.009 p-value(cyclones).000.000.000.000.000.000 Propensities yes yes yes yes yes yes FE country country country country country country Observations 5,171 5,171 5,171 5,171 5,171 5,171 20/ 18
VARIABLE Annual damages declared in EM-DAT (% GDP) Energy density -.00000 (cyclones) (.00004) s 0 -.00002 -.00002 -.00002 -.00002 -.00002 (cyclones) (.00018) (.00023) (.00023) (.00023) (.00023) s 1 -.00002 -.00007 -.00005 -.00002 (cyclones) (.00046) (.00064) (.00067) (.00067) s 2.00009 -.00006 -.00012 (cyclones) (.00098) (.00140) (.00140) s 3.00025.00030 (cyclones) (.00148) (.00160) s 4 -.00015 (cyclones) (.00326) Energy density.00042*** (quakes) (.00004) s 0.00120***.00103***.00104***.00103***.00103*** (quakes) (.00010) (.00016) (.00016) (.00017) (.00017) s 1.00083.00044.00033.00028 (quakes) (.00062) (.00089) (.00090) (.00090) s 2.00157.00097.00095 (quakes) (.00252) (.00261) (.00261) s 3.00561 -.00442 (quakes) (.00636) (.00698) s 4.04937*** (quakes) (.01425) Adj. R-squared.02283.02289.02285.02253.02230.02427 p-value(quakes).000.000.000.000.000.000 p-value(cyclones).943.888.990.999.999 1.000 Propensities yes yes yes yes yes yes FE country country country country country country Observations 5,171 5,171 5,171 5,171 5,171 5,171 21/ 18
Specification (S) - second stage Panel A First difference of output growth y t y t 1 Damages (% GDP) d t -0.052-0.305-0.554* -0.472*** -0.449*** -0.450*** (0.041) (0.362) (0.305) (0.138) (0.138) (0.110) Instruments - s c 0 s c 0,1 s c 0,1,2 s c 0,1,2,3 s c 0,1,2,3,4 Controls - - - - - - Observations 5,098 5,098 5,098 5,098 5,098 5,098 Panel B First difference of output growth y t y t 1 Damages (% GDP) d t -0.050-0.047-0.454* -0.455*** -0.445*** -0.447*** (0.105) (0.298) (0.247) (0.101) (0.095) (0.096) Instruments - s c 0 s c 0,1 s c 0,1,2 s c 0,1,2,3 s c 0,1,2,3,4 Controls yes yes yes yes yes yes Observations 3,986 3,986 3,986 3,986 3,986 3,986 Panel C Output growth y t Damages (% GDP) d t -0.130** 0.059-0.114-0.180-0.200* -0.223** (0.054) (0.140) (0.126) (0.110) (0.103) (0.101) Instruments - s c 0 s c 0,1 s c 0,1,2 s c 0,1,2,3 s c 0,1,2,3,4 Controls yes yes yes yes yes yes Observations 3,986 3,986 3,986 3,986 3,986 3,986 22/ 18
PANEL A Cyclones PANEL B Earthquakes Regressand yt y t 1 yt y t 1 yt yt Regressand yt y t 1 yt y t 1 yt yt Regressors Regressors s 0-0.002-0.001-0.002 0.002 s 0 0.001 0.001 0.001-0.001 (cyclones) (0.002) (0.002) (0.003) (0.003) (quakes) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) 5,098 3,986 5,098 3,986 5,098 3,986 5,098 3,986 s 1-0.014*** -0.013*** -0.012-0.009 s 1-0.002-0.003-0.003-0.009 (cyclones) (0.004) (0.004) (0.007) (0.006) (quakes) (0.004) (0.005) (0.007) (0.006) 5,098 3,986 5,098 3,986 5,098 3,986 5,098 3,986 s 2-0.031*** -0.038*** -0.025* -0.030** s 2 0.002-0.003-0.004-0.021 (cyclones) (0.010) (0.011) (0.013) (0.012) (quakes) (0.015) (0.018) (0.028) (0.024) 5,098 3,986 5,098 3,986 5,098 3,986 5,098 3,986 s 3-0.040** -0.060*** -0.030-0.045** s 3-0.033-0.038-0.012-0.036 (cyclones) (0.018) (0.022) (0.019) (0.018) (quakes) (0.030) (0.034) (0.100) (0.081) 5,098 3,986 5,098 3,986 5,098 3,986 5,098 3,986 s 4-0.009-0.128** 0.008 0.089 s 4-0.075-0.104* -0.035-0.220 (cyclones) (0.043) (0.060) (0.058) (0.202) (quakes) (0.070) (0.055) (0.255) (0.207) 5,098 3,986 5,098 3,986 5,098 3,986 5,098 3,986 Specifications OLS OLS AB AB Specifications OLS OLS AB AB Controls - yes - yes Controls - yes - yes Propensities yes yes yes yes Propensities yes yes yes yes 23/ 18
Panel A Cyclones First difference y t y t 1 Output growth y t s 2 -.034*** -.041*** -.023* -.027** (cyclones) (.009) (.011) (.012) (.012) L.s 2.016.024*.011.009 (cyclones) (.012) (.014) (.012) (.012) L2.s 2 -.029** -.035** -.019 -.020 (cyclones) (.012) (.015) (.012) (.012) L3.s 2.017.024.000.001 (cyclones) (.016) (.019) (.012) (.012) L4.s 2.021.012.016.011 (cyclones) (.018) (.015) (.014) (.012) Controls - yes - yes FE - - country country Observations 4,646 3,651 4,646 3,651 Earthquakes First difference y t y t 1 Output growth y t s 2 0.005-0.005-0.012-0.024 (quakes) (0.017) (0.018) (0.027) (0.023) L.s 2-0.010-0.009-0.029-0.025 (quakes) (0.017) (0.017) (0.026) (0.022) L2.s 2 0.022 0.014-0.001-0.015 (quakes) (0.017) (0.018) (0.026) (0.021) L3.s 2 0.002-0.003-0.005-0.013 (quakes) (0.012) (0.011) (0.026) (0.021) L4.s 2 0.016 0.015 0.018 0.011 (quakes) (0.016) (0.017) (0.028) (0.022) Controls - yes - yes FE - - country country Observations 4,646 3,651 4,646 3,651 24/ 18
Kinetic energy 1 2 mv2 (collision completely stops the molecule motion). The vertical surface associated with a horizontal surface: C dds Number of molecules vdτ ρ. 1 2 ρcdv3 dτds Table: Choice of parameters values for the energy measures Description Parameter Value Units Cyclones Surface drag coefficient C d 0.47 - Air mass density ρ 1.2 kg/m 3 Threshold cat-0 typhoon v 0 17.5 m/s Threshold cat-1 typhoon v 1 32.5 m/s Threshold cat-2 typhoon v 2 42.5 m/s Threshold cat-3 typhoon v 3 49 m/s Threshold cat-4 typhoon v 4 58 m/s Threshold cat-5 typhoon v 5 69 m/s - stands for dimensionless quantities. 25/ 18
ln(y) = F }{{} 1 + F }{{} 2 + F }{{} 3 + F }{{} 4 magnitude scaling core attenuation basin effect site conditions where F 1 = ln [(c 1arctan(M [ + c 2) + c 3) F] ] F 2 = 0.5ln (1 r/(c 4M + c 5)) 2 + 4(c 6cos(c7(M + c 8)) + c 9) 2 r/(c 4M + c 5) [ ( F 3 = 0.5ln 1 ) ] 2 r/r 1 + 4d 2 1 r/r1 F 4 = S 26/ 18