Finance & Trade Economics,No.11,2011 :⑴, 1, ⑵,,,, :⑴ Clark(1995) ,,,,,, Capozza Seguin(1996) Clark(1995),,, 1, (1993Q2-2010Q1) :,, (Dise- q

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1 * :, , :⑴,, ;⑵,,, : :,,510642;,,510642;,,, : F : A : (2011) (Rent-PriceRatio, ), (Meese Walace,1994),, (MeanReversion),,,, ( 1),2003,, 1, 2,, * ( :09YJA790074) ( : ) 211 ( TD01) % , 70.9% 72.8% 63.4%,, 1 525,, (,2009) 105

2 Finance & Trade Economics,No.11,2011 :⑴, 1, ⑵,,,, :⑴ Clark(1995) ,,,,,, Capozza Seguin(1996) Clark(1995),,, 1, (1993Q2-2010Q1) :,, (Dise- quilibrium Component), 2,,, ⑵ Mankiw Weil(1989),, Galin(2008) ,, ;,,,, Plazzi (2010) , ;, 1 ; (Smith,1988) 2 106

3 ( ) 1., (P) (UserCost) (V)(Jorgenson,1963,Poterba,1984)( -1), P -2, V = P UC (1) V P =UC (2) Galin(2008), -2 : V t = (r t +τ t p )(1-τ t)+λt y +δt -E tg t+1 (3) P t,t,r t,τ t p,τ t y,λt,δt,e tg t+1,galin C t, : C t = (i t +τ t p )(1-τ t)+δt y (4), -3-4 ( ),, 1, -3 : V t =r t +Λt +δt -E tg t+1 (5) P t,, -5 (Mishkin,2007;Campbel,2009), ((1-LTV t ) rf ) (LTV tr t m ) -5 r t ( -6), (1-LTV t ) rf t +LTV tr t m (C t )( -7) V t P t = (1-LTV t ) rf t +LTV tr m t +Λt +δt -E tg t+1 (6) C t = (1-LTV t ) rf t +LTV tr m t (7),LTV t, (1-LTV t ), rf t,r t m Galin(2008) C t, C t δt, 2., : :v t+n -v t =α0(v t+n-4 -v t-4 )+α1(v-p) t +α2c t +η (8) t :pt+n -pt =β 0 (pt+n-4 -pt-4)+β (v-p) 1 t +β 2C t + ξ (9) t, ;n ; η t ξ t Galin (2008),Campbel Shiler(2001) Mark(1995), t , (PropertyTax) 107

4 Finance & Trade Economics,No.11,2011, 1, ( 4 ) -6,, 2 ( ) 1. (pt) (v t ), 1993, ,, CPI ( -10, -11) 3 pt =lnp t -lncpi t (10) v t =lnv t -lncpi t (11) 2. (v-p) t, 3. (C t ) LTV t 80%, rf t rt m (htp:// ; ; 4. (Δpt) (Δv t ) : Δpt = (pt+n -pt) (12) Δv t = (v t+n -v t ) (13), n ( ) 2 ( ) 4,, 2,, 2, 1 2 3, CPI CPI, CPI CPI, Galin(2008),,,,, ( ), CPI 4 ( ), 1~7, 4, ( ),, 4 ( ),,

5 ( ) :(1), ;(2) ( ), ( ) ( 1) , , , , (v-p) t , C t , ( ) vt+16 -vt pt+16 -pt 1., -8, -9 ADF(AugmentDickey-Fuler), 2,v t+16 -v t pt+16 -pt (v-p) t C t, 2. EG -8-9 (Ordi- 1, ( ),, (2009) 109

6 Finance & Trade Economics,No.11,2011 naryleastsquares,ols) -8-9, ADF, 3 2 vt+16 -vt pt+16 -pt (v-p) t C t (-2.920) (-2.920) (-2.920) (-2.920) ** ** ** ** (-2.920) (-2.920) (-2.920) (-2.920) ** ** ** ** (-3.478) (-3.478) (-3.478) (-3.478) ** (-3.479) ** (-3.479) ** (-3.479) ** (-3.479) ** ** ** ** :(1) ** 5% ;(2) ;⑶,, ;, 3 vt+12 -vt-4 (v-p) t C t pt+12 -pt-4 OLS (0.817) *** *** *** (0.500) *** *** (0.005) *** (0.211) (0.281) *** (0.114) *** *** *** *** ** * ADF (0.038) (0.077) (0.001) ** (0.029) (0.007) ** (0.018) (0.836) (0.293) *** (0.114) ** (0.015) ** (0.023) *** (0.001) (0.291) *** ** (0.028) ** (0.029) * (0.066) *** *** (0.005) * (0.082) *** ** (0.024) (0.722) *** (0.008) ** (0.034) Adj.R :(1) *** ** * 1% 5% 10% ;(2) P 3,, :, Capozza Seguin(1996) Mankiw Weil(1989),,, ,, 1%, 0.253% 0.609%,,, Galin(2008), 1%, 0.518%,, 110

7 , ;,,,, Clark(1995) Galin(2008) ( ), 1%, 0.406% 0.427% 0.300%,,, ,⑴, ; ⑵,, :⑴,, ⑵,,,, ⑶,, :⑴,, ;⑵ : 1. : :, : 59, Campbel,J.Y.andShiler,R.J.,ValuationRatiosandtheLong-RunStock MarketOutlook:AnUpdate.NBEB Working Paper,No.1295, Campbel,S.D.,Davis,M.A.,Galin,J.,and Martin,R.F.,WhatMovesHousing Markets:A VarianceDecomposition oftherent-priceratio.journalof Urban Economics,Vol.66,No.2,2009,pp Capozza,D.R.andSeguin,P.J.,Expectations,Eficiency,andEuphoriaintheHousing Market.RegionalScienceand Urban Economics,26,1996,pp Clark,T.E.,RentsandPricesofHousingAcrossAreasoftheUnitedStates:A Cross-SectionExaminationofthePresent ValueModel.RegionalScienceand Urban Economics,25,1995,pp Galin,J.,TheLong-RunRelationshipBetween HousePricesandRents.RealEstateEconomics,Vol.36,No.4,2008, pp Jorgenson,Dale W.,CapitalTheoryandInvestmentBehavior.American Economic Review,Vol.53,No.2,1963, pp Mankiw,G.N.,and Weil,D.N.,TheBabyBoom,theBabyBustandtheHousing Market.RegionalScienceand Urban Economics,19,1989,pp Mark,N.C.,ExchangeRatesandFundamentals:EvidenceonLong-HorizonPredictability.American Economic Re- view,vol.85,no.1,1995,pp Meese,R.and WalaceN.E.,TestingthePresentValueRelationforHousingPrices:ShouldILeaveMyHouseinSan Francisco Journalof Urban Economics,Vol.35,No.3,1994,pp Mishkin,F.S.,HousingandtheMonetaryTransmission Mechanism.NBER WorkingPaper,No.13518, Poterba,J.,TaxSubsidiestoOwnerOccupiedHousing:AnAssetMarketApproach.Quarterly Journalof Economics, Vol.99,No.4,1984,pp Plazzi,A.,Torous,W.,andValkanov,R.,ExpectedReturnsandtheExpectedGrowthinRentsofCommercialReal Estate.The Review of FinanceStudies,Vol.23,No.9,2010,pp Smith,L.B.,Rosen,K.T.,andFalis,G.,RecentDevelopmentsinEconomicModelsofHousing Market.Journalof Economic Literature,Vol.26,No.1,1988,pp : 111

8 Finance & Trade Economics No.11,2011 FrameworkofComprehensivePerformanceEvaluation ongovernmentinvestmentinchina BasedonAl-roundViewfrom MacroeconomicPolicy DecisiontoCompleteProjectPeriod JIA Kang,SHIYinghua (ResearchInstituteforFiscalScience,MinistryofFinance,100142) Combiningwith demandsofseekingforfiscalperformanceas welasscientificandelaborate management,thepaperproposesthatanassessmentframeworkofsixlevels/linksshouldbe establishedforcomprehensivebenefitofgovernmentinvestmentinbuildingpublicfinancesystem with Chinesecharacteristic,based on al-round view from macroeconomicpolicy decisionto completeprojectperiod.it would providetheory supportforconstructing specificindicator systemandpreparingperformancebudgetinfuture. Keywords:FiscalFund,GovernmentInvestment,ComprehensivePerformanceEvaluation AnalysisonDevelopmentofFinancialAccounting in2008snaandissuesforfurtherresearch CHEN Menggen (InstituteofNationalAccounts,BeijingNormalUniversity,100875) ThedevelopmentoffinancialaccountingisoneofthesignificantcontributionsoftheSystem of NationalAccounts2008 (2008SNA).The maindevelopmentsoffinancialaccountingin2008 SNAfalintosuchaspectsasconceptions,classification,methodsofoutputmeasurement,and treatmentofspecificitems.thesenew developmentsinvolve wide-rangedandhaveimportant influencesonthe methods,proceduresandresultsoffinancialaccounting.someofthe main aggregatesandoutputmeasurementsforfinancialserviceswilbechanged.theharmonization betweenfinancialaccounting under 2008 SNA and otherinternationalstatisticalstandards improvesgreatly.infact,financialaccountingisadevelopingfieldandtherearestil many importantissuesawaitingfurtherresearch. Keywords:2008SNA,FinancialAccounting,FinancialOutput DoesRent-priceRatioFail BasedonanEmpiricalStudyofFourUrbanHousingMarkets LIU Renhe,CHEN Yi(ColegeofEconomicsand Management, SouthChinaAgricultureUniversity,510642) CHEN Yingnan (HangLungCenterforRealEstate,InstituteofRealEstateStudies, TsinghuaUniversity,100084) Basedonhousingusercostmodel,thispaperconstructspredictivemodelsofrentandprice.By usingtime-seriesdataofbeijing,shanghai,guangzhouandshenzhenfromthesecondquarterof 1993tothefirstquarterof2010,itexaminestheabilityofrent-priceratiotopredictfuture changesofrentandprice.empiricalresultsshowthat:⑴therelationshipbetweenrent-price ratioandfuturechangesofpriceinbeijingandguangzhouisnegative,whilethatofshenzhenis positive,andnostatisticalysignificantrelationshipofthetwovariablesisfoundinguangzhou; ⑵ExceptforShanghai,rent-priceratioinBeijing,GuangzhouandShenzhencanpredictfuture changesinrentwithaninverserelationshipbetweenthetwovariables.resultsprovideempirical supportstotheviewthatitshouldbecarefultoapplyrent-priceratioasanindicatortoevaluate China surbanhousingmarket. Keywords:Housing Market,Rent-priceRatio,IndicatorofValuation

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