This is a repository copy of Persistent poverty and children's cognitive development: Evidence from the UK Millennium Cohort Study.

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1 This is a repository copy of Persistent poverty and children's cognitive development: Evidence from the UK Millennium Cohort Study. White Rose Research Online URL for this paper: Monograph: Dickerson, Andrew and Popli, Gurlee (2011) Persistent poverty and children's cognitive development: Evidence from the UK Millennium Cohort Study. Working Paper. Department of Economics, University of Sheffield ISSN Sheffield Economic Research Paper Series Reuse Unless indicated otherwise, fulltext items are protected by copyright with all rights reserved. The copyright exception in section 29 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 allows the making of a single copy solely for the purpose of non-commercial research or private study within the limits of fair dealing. The publisher or other rights-holder may allow further reproduction and re-use of this version - refer to the White Rose Research Online record for this item. Where records identify the publisher as the copyright holder, users can verify any specific terms of use on the publisher s website. Takedown If you consider content in White Rose Research Online to be in breach of UK law, please notify us by ing eprints@whiterose.ac.uk including the URL of the record and the reason for the withdrawal request. eprints@whiterose.ac.uk

2 Sheffield Economic Research Paper Series SERP Number: ISSN Andrew Dickerson Gurleen Popli Persistent Poverty and Children s Cognitive Development: Evidence from the UK Millennium Cohort Study November 2011 Department of Economics University of Sheffield 9 Mappin Street Sheffield S1 4DT United Kingdom

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25 =#&(, &,22 + ( % :) ( 0 (:( =#(1(1=(;)&( &, + 5 (% :) ( 0( =;0& :0;;<8;6(! ( = 1 Ι& W5 ) ) ) (W%.+&23&+ (442D Ι) & W5 & ) 6))) ) (ϑ! ) D ( (0(:( 1<( (:& Ψ0?#6 Ψ( 0.% 2 #<%( (%:1(=( Λ #(D:5(! Π & W) )ϑ( (+&2 (3,3D3 2 #(<%((1(( 1(((;((%( (. ( 5( Κ( Χ( = ( =( =(%Η(:(%(:( ( ( Π( (:( Χ D; ( ( DΙ( 1( )( <( Ι( %( Π ( & W) ) #2 ) 6!=Χ! =&! = ϑ /. % 3& (4D ##= %&9 W(() Ε)(ϑ /.(,3&4 ( 9+D92 # #. # & W( Ε 6))(ϑ &% /2+ & (+ D++2 (;( & W%)?) /6)(ϑ/.% +( 4&4 ( D <%& 33,,:(%(Ι6Ι) 0(%)=1& W<Ε(ϑ=#( 1=/&,.01..;6!)1& 5=( Η 6<). Π & 32 W ) ) ) )))(ϑ/.++(, (,D,3

26 ,!3% % % D % 4D, %+ 2 %4 9 )) 3 +, & 3Μ 93Μ +4Μ 3 Μ! 192>90 1>216? 1>2<;0 172;00 & 3Μ +4Μ 92Μ +3+Μ =;0Γ.< D 4D,,D2 D9! 1?21<9 1>2>; 102><7 1>26?> &+ 2Μ 2Μ +Μ 32Μ! 1?21<9 1>2>; 102><7 1>26?>!!, & % 5? 2Μ? ) Χ%? ) =& (9, & %5?)Χ%? ) %( )?2Μ;=%&6 1( (=;0Γ.< + &+ & / 2Μ? % 4 0 ( % ) )( +

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28 1! %%3+! %6)+ %+6), %46) 1 0 > 7 9? < 1 ;<&+ 172;>6( 0 ;DΙ&+, 4 1>2?9>( > ;D&,,3 102><1( 7 ;DΙ&,, 102>6<( 9 ;D%&, > ;( ;D!<& 4+, 1120;7(? ;D%& >19( < & >96( ;<&+ ;DΙ&+ ;D&, ;DΙ&, ;D%&, ;D!<& ;D%& & 172?? ( 1>2;17(,, 1>2;>>(,, 10266>( ?9 ( 2 112<?>( ( 19219?( >;( ;?7( 102<7<( <( + + 1>2;;6( 1921 <( ;>( < 1( ?1( + + 1>2;00( 19211;( <>;(,, >( ( 1>296;( + 9 1>27<>( 433 1>2997( 1>2?;0( 4 4 1>2 91( 1>2?99(!! 1 56 ;<&+ Β ; <()+ ;DΙ&+ Β ;)()+ ;D&, Β ;(), ;DΙ&, Β ;)(), ;D%&, Β ;(), ;D!<& Β ; )() ;D%& Β ;() & Β ) () % & ) ) 5) + )ΛΝ 4 0 ( % ) )(,

29 4! %%3 3!(+ 2% %!&(!3 %6)+ %+6), %46) 1 0 > 7 9? < ;<&+ ;DΙ&+ ;D&, ;DΙ&, ;D%&, ;D!<& ;D%& & D 29ΖΖΖ D ΖΖΖ D, ΖΖΖ D +ΖΖΖ D2 ΖΖΖ D324ΖΖΖ D 44ΖΖΖ D 4+ΖΖΖ ;61( ;60( ;66( ;60( ;66( ;6<( 1;1( ;6?( D +4+ΖΖΖ D 94ΖΖΖ D 3ΖΖ D,ΖΖΖ D439ΖΖΖ D9 3ΖΖΖ D,33ΖΖΖ D 9ΖΖΖ ;<6( ;6;( 1;0( ;67( 1;1( 1;1( 1;7( 1;1( + D4Ζ D 2,Ζ DΖ D 32Ζ D23ΖΖ D+,4ΖΖΖ ;69( ;?6( ;6>( ;67( ;66( ;69( 4 D, 9 +4 ;60( ;<?( ;<6( % +2 ΖΖΖ +2 2ΖΖΖ 4 4ΖΖΖ +,+ΖΖΖ 423ΖΖΖ,ΖΖΖ 4,,ΖΖ D +,ΖΖΖ 790( 7?9( 90( 97?( 17( <06( <76( <0?( %6)+ %+6), %46) 1 0 > 7 9? < ;<&+ ;DΙ&+ ;D&, ;DΙ&, ;D%&, ;D!<& ;D%& & D494ΖΖΖ D,42ΖΖΖ D42 ΖΖ D+29Ζ D + D,ΖΖΖ D39 D+ +Ζ 17;( 17?( 1 ;( 179( 19<( 19;( 1 >( 19>( D 3ΖΖΖ D433ΖΖΖ D, ΖΖΖ D+4Ζ D2 ΖΖΖ D+99Ζ D,2ΖΖ 170( 176( 1 9( 17<( 1 >( 19>( 1?( 19?( + D D+ D 2 D+Ζ D + D+9+Ζ 1 1( 1>9( 19<( 190( 1?( 19 ( 4 D D+4 D+ 1?( 1 7( 1 9( % Η Η Η Η Η Η Η Η 0 0 > > > D9 ΖΖ D242Ζ 94,3ΖΖΖ,+,3ΖΖΖ,ΖΖΖ,49ΖΖΖ 2 D3 2ΖΖΖ 1;>7( 11;>( 1;>7( <?6( 6? ( 101<( 106?( 10> (!! 4 < D ((+4) % ( %( %+ %4 + >ΖΖΖ) Μ(ΖΖ),Μ(Ζ) Μ 4 Λ6+ (29 > +(3, + Ε)5 6 06Ε )& ( &,)6 ) Φ Ε ( Ε ( Ε &, )6 ) Φ?Ε Φ (#( 5( < ( ( <)(:(%)(.(;(5Ι( ((( >6Ε )& > &,)6 ) Φ Ε > Ε > Ε +&, )6 ) Φ?Ε Φ (#( 5( < ( ( <)(!)(:( %)(.(;(5Ι( ( 76Ε )& > &,)6 ) Φ Ε > Ε > Ε 4&, )6 ) Φ?Ε Φ (#( 5( < ( ( <)(!)(:( %)(.(;(5Ι( ( 2 0 ( % ) )( 2

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31 6! %%3 3!(+ 2% %!&(!3 :) %6)+ %+6), %46) D D D D D + +, +3 D, 92 D 4 + D42 44 D D+2, D 9+ % Η Η Η!! 6 Λ. ( ) & ). ) Λ6 (3, + 56Ε )(Ε )& (&2 )6)Φ Ε (Ε (Ε &2 )6 ) Φ?Ε Φ ( #( ) 4 0 ( % ) )( 9

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33 8 %&% % % %&&!&(!3!! %%3 3!(+ :) %6)+ %+6), %46) D D D &&&!+, 5 D, D44 D, D D + +, +3 0 D 2 D D D 2 D, D4, D2,4+ D D 2 D24 4 &&&!+/ 5 D92 D +3 D 32 D, 92 D 4 0 D + D 39 D3,, D + D49 + D4+ + D+, D+,, 4 +, D 4 D 3 2, &&&!+1 5 D4 4+ D 4 D42 44 D D 9 D3,34 D 9 D 9 29 D4 449 &&&!+4 5 D+9 43 D+2, 0 D 94+ D 94+ +

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35 %./3!(!3(%! 99(%! %.13!(!3 3 % (!3!!! # %

36 (( %:..,! %%3 3!(+ 2% %!&(!3 4; 0 %6)+ %+6), %46) 1 0 > 7 9? < ;<&+ ;DΙ&+ ;D&, ;DΙ&, ;D%&, ;D!<& ;D%& & D494ΖΖΖ D,42ΖΖΖ D42 ΖΖ D+29Ζ D + D,ΖΖΖ D39 D+ +Ζ 17;( 17?( 1 ;( 179( 19<( 19;( 1 >( 19>( D 3ΖΖΖ D433ΖΖΖ D, ΖΖΖ D+4Ζ D2 ΖΖΖ D+99Ζ D,2ΖΖ 170( 176( 1 9( 17<( 1 >( 19>( 1?( 19?( + D D+ D 2 D+Ζ D + D+9+Ζ 1 1( 1>9( 19<( 190( 1?( 19 ( 4 D D+4 D+ 1?( 1 7( 1 9( ) ΖΖΖ 22ΖΖΖ D4+ΖΖ D4Ζ D 9ΖΖΖ D,3ΖΖΖ +3ΖΖ, ΖΖΖ ;1<( ;16( ;19( ;10( ;17( ;1>( ;17( ;1>( ; ) 4 3ΖΖ D +,ΖΖΖ 4 +93ΖΖΖ 3ΖΖΖ &# ;?;( ;?>( ;?6( ;?0( ;?<( ;?>( ;?6( ;?7( / Ζ D ?;( 0<7( >;?( 0?6( >;7( 0<7( >;6( 06;( 0 D9, D 4 ΖΖΖ D99 D39Ζ D 3 +Ζ D++ D 9 7;?( 70<( 7 1( 716( 79 ( 70?( 7 ( 7>?( D32 D9,ΖΖΖ D24 D 3 ΖΖ + 9ΖΖ 23 D2, ;) 96 ( 0 (?6( 1 (?1( >;( < ( 77( ; D23 D34ΖΖΖ, D ΖΖΖ 23 +Ζ D 2 ΖΖ D ; ; 9><( 9 9( 1;( 997( ;>( 9 >( 17( 9? ( Χ,2 D+,9ΖΖΖ D 3 D 442Ζ +2 D2 D 32 61(?0 (?<9(?1>(?? (?0?(?60(?7>( 2,3, D9 22 D+ 92 ;?<( ;<>( ;6?( ;<>( ;<?( ;6>( ;67( ;6>( Ι 3 + D2, 32ΖΖ D+ 23, D9, 07?( 0 0( >;>( 0?1( 067( 067( >1?( >;;( Ι 4 +Ζ 2 ΖΖ +,2,Ζ , +3 0;;( 011( 079( 016( 0>?( 0>6( 09?( 07>( Ι +,,Ζ ΖΖΖ 2,,ΖΖ +,+,+Ζ 449, +Ζ & &+ &,2 &3 &49 &49 &2 &,+ Ι 4 93ΖΖΖ 3+9ΖΖΖ 439Ζ 4,ΖΖΖ, ΖΖ 3,ΖΖΖ 9,ΖΖΖ 949ΖΖΖ 0;0( 01>( 07 ( 00;( 0><( 0><( 09 ( 07>( Ι, +ΖΖΖ,+4Ζ 34ΖΖ,4ΖΖΖ,++Ζ 3, ΖΖΖ 33ΖΖΖ 924ΖΖ 09;( 0 9( 0?1( 071( 0 1( 0 >( 0<1( 0?( # D, D D D D Ζ D + D9 ;10( ;1>( ;17( ;10( ;1>( ;10( ;1>( ;10( 5 D+Ζ D422ΖΖΖ D D+2Ζ D, D + D43 D++3Ζ 1>1( 1>6( 1 0( 170( 197( 199( 1 7( 19?( < 2ΖΖΖ 94ΖΖΖ D 3+Ζ D, D 4 D42 D,, ;76( ;90( ;97( ;7 ( ;7<( ;7;( ;7;( ;7;( ΖΖ 2+ΖΖΖ D+ + D,,, 4 ;7;( ;7>( ;7?( ;7;( ;70( ;7?( ;7 ( ;7 ( <) 2ΖΖΖ D 4ΖΖ D+4 D++ D3ΖΖΖ +9 D Ζ ;0?( ;06( ; 1( ;90( ;9>( ;0<( ;0<( ;0<(!) D3 44 D D 3ΖΖ D 3ΖΖΖ D4 ;77( ;><( ;>6( ;>7( ;>7( ;>7( : 3+Ζ D 2 4Ζ, ;7 ( ;76( ; 9( ;99( ;9<( ; 7( ; >( ; >( %) ΖΖ 2 D 9 ΖΖ D+ ;><( ;71( ;7 ( ;>6( ;7;( ;>9( ;>9( ;>9(. 9ΖΖΖ 24ΖΖΖ 99Ζ 3,ΖΖΖ 4 32ΖΖ 4 ++

37 %6)+ %+6), %46) 1 0 > 7 9? < ;<&+ ;DΙ&+ ;D&, ;DΙ&, ;D%&, ;D!<& ;D%& & ;>>( ;>9( ;70( ;> ( ;><( ;> ( ;> ( ;> ( ; 2 ΖΖΖ 4 +,Ζ + 32ΖΖΖ 32 9 ;79( ;7<( ; 1( ;90( ;99( ;9 ( ;9 ( ;99( 5Ι D 4 +ΖΖΖ D 3,ΖΖ + D 32ΖΖΖ D4 ΖΖΖ D29 D 9ΖΖ ;9<( ; 0( ; ( ;9?( ;96( ; 1( ; 1( ; 1( D +Ζ D, 3 2 D D,ΖΖ D D ;9 ( ; ;( ; ( ;9?( ; ;( ; 7( ; 9( ; 7( 9 D D+ 42 D 9, ;?0( ;??( ;<<( ;?9( ;?<( ;<1( ;<1( ;<;(,9ΖΖ +ΖΖΖ ;16( ;0;( D ;;?( ;;?( D9 ΖΖ D242Ζ 94,3ΖΖΖ,+,3ΖΖΖ,ΖΖΖ,49ΖΖΖ 2 D3 2ΖΖΖ 1;>7( 11;>( 1;>7( <?6( 6? ( 101<( 106?( 10> ( +4

38 /! %%3 3!(+ 2(%!&(!3 5; 0 %6)+ %+6), %46) 1 0 > 7 9? < ;<&+ ;DΙ&+ ;D&, ;DΙ&, ;D%&, ;D!<& ;D%& & D424ΖΖΖ D+33ΖΖΖ D Ζ DΖΖΖ D3 D4 ΖΖΖ D,ΖΖ D,ΖΖΖ ;?;( ;?7( ;90( ;7 ( ;9;( ;>7( ;>?( ;>9( ) ΖΖΖ 2,ΖΖΖ D44ΖΖ D,Ζ D 9ΖΖΖ D2ΖΖΖ +9ΖΖ, ΖΖΖ ;1<( ;16( ;19( ;10( ;17( ;1>( ;17( ;1>( ; ) 44 3ΖΖ D4 + +9ΖΖΖ 2 +3ΖΖΖ 3+ΖΖΖ &# ;?;( ;?>( ;?6( ;?0( ;?<( ;?>( ;?6( ;?9( / 4 2, Ζ D 4 9 0?;( 0<7( >;?( 0?6( >;7( 0<7( >;6( 06;( 0 D9 D 4 2ΖΖΖ D+9 D3 3Ζ D3 4 Ζ D+ D, 7;<( 70<( 7 1( 716( 79 ( 70<( 7 ( 7>?( D 9 D9+ ΖΖΖ D2+3 D 39ΖΖ 3 94ΖΖ, + D239 ;) 96 ( 0 ( <;( 1?(?0( >1( <?( 79( ; D +3 D +ΖΖΖ 4+ D 9ΖΖΖ + 2 D ΖΖ D4+ ; ; 9><( 9 9( 1;( 99>( ;>( 9 7( 17( 9? ( Χ 2 D+43ΖΖΖ D 4 D 4+2Ζ 4 D,3 D, 3 ) 61(?0 (?<9(?1>(???(?0<(?6>(?77( 22,3 3,, D,3 D+ 99 ;?<( ;<>( ;6 ( ;<>( ;<?( ;6>( ;67( ;60( Ι + +2 D 3 33ΖΖ D92 + D 2 07<( 0 0( >;>( 0?1( 067( 069( >1<( >;;( Ι 4+Ζ 2 3ΖΖ 4, ΖΖ 42 Ζ 49Ζ ;;( 011( 079( 016( 0>?( 0>6( 09?( 077( Ι +,44ΖΖ 9 ΖΖΖ ΖΖ +3,3Ζ 499,+9Ζ 011( 00>( 09 ( 006( 07<( 076( 0?( 09>( Ι 4 3ΖΖΖ 32+ΖΖΖ, 9Ζ 4+ ΖΖΖ 3 ΖΖΖ 322ΖΖΖ 3 ΖΖΖ 993ΖΖΖ 0;1( 01>( 07 ( 00;( 0><( 0><( 09 ( 07>( Ι, + ΖΖΖ,,3Ζ 9,ΖΖ 9ΖΖΖ, Ζ 339ΖΖΖ 4ΖΖΖ 3,ΖΖΖ 09;( 0 9( 0?0( 071( 0 1( 0 >( 0<1( 0 <( # D 2 D3 D D D9Ζ D 4 D3 ;10( ;1>( ;17( ;10( ;10( ;10( ;1>( ;10( 5 D+4+ΖΖ D43 ΖΖΖ D,4 D++ Ζ D 2 D+42Ζ D+Ζ D4 9ΖΖ 1>1( 1>6( 1 1( 170( 19>( 19>( 1 >( 199( < 2ΖΖΖ 9,ΖΖΖ D 3+Ζ D, D D4+ D,+ ;76( ;90( ;97( ;7 ( ;7<( ;7;( ;7;( ;7;( 9ΖΖ 2+ΖΖΖ D + D,2,+ +9 ;7;( ;7>( ;7?( ;7;( ;70( ;7?( ;7 ( ;7 ( <) 2ΖΖΖ 9 D ΖΖ D+, D+ D ΖΖΖ + D Ζ ;0?( ;06( ; 1( ;90( ;9>( ;0<( ;0<( ;0<(!) D + 44 D D,ΖΖΖ D ΖΖΖ D, ;77( ;><( ;>6( ;>7( ;>7( ;>7( : 3Ζ D 2 44ΖΖ 3 9, ;7 ( ;76( ; 9( ;99( ;9<( ; 7( ; >( ; >( %) +ΖΖ 2 D 9 ΖΖΖ D 4 ;><( ;71( ;7 ( ;>6( ;7;( ;>9( ;>9( ;>9(. 3ΖΖΖ 2+ΖΖΖ 3Ζ 3,ΖΖΖ 4 33ΖΖ ;>>( ;>9( ;70( ;> ( ;><( ;> ( ;> ( ;> ( ; 2 ΖΖΖ Ζ + 39ΖΖΖ 32 9 ;79( ;7<( ; 1( ;90( ;99( ;9 ( ;9 ( ;99( 5Ι D + +ΖΖΖ D 3,ΖΖ +4 D 39ΖΖΖ D,ΖΖΖ D D 9,ΖΖ ;96( ; 0( ; ( ;9 ( ;96( ; 1( ; 1( ; 1( D +,Ζ D, +Ζ, D + D 9ΖΖ D D 4 ;9 ( ; ;( ; ( ;9?( ; ;( ; 7( ; 9( ; 7( +,

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