2011 Egyptian Revolution: A Demographic Structural Analysis. Andrey Korotayev, Julia Zinkina (Russian Academy of Sciences)

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1 2011 Egyptian Revolution: A Demographic Structural Analysis Andrey Korotayev, Julia Zinkina (Russian Academy of Sciences)

2 Causes of revolution Economic stagnation? Poverty? Inequality? Corruption? Unemployment?

3 GDP dynamics in Egypt, , billions of 2005 dollars, PPP

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5 Population dynamics of Egypt, , millions

6 2003 Relative population growth rates in Egypt, (% per year) ,92 1,9 1,88 1,86 1,84 1,82 1,8 1,78

7 5500 GDP per capita dynamics in Egypt, , in 2005 dollars, PPP

8 Corruption?

9 Transparency International Corruption Index, 2010

10 Singapore Sweden Switzerland Germany Japan UK USA France Estonia Slovenia Malaysia Tunisia Italy Cuba Bulgaria China Greece India Egypt Argentina Kazakhstan Algeria Indonesia Vietnam Belarus Syria Bangladesh Ukraine Iran Libya Yemen Russia Tajikistan Kenya Kyrgyzstan Guinea Uzbekistan Sudan Iraq Transparency International Corruption Index, 2010

11 Unemployment?

12 Kuwait (2008) Singapore (2010) Norway (2010) China (2010) Austria (2010) Japan (2010) Germany (2010) Russia (2010) Slovenia (2010) Canada (2011) UK (2010) Italy (2010) Finland (2010) Sweden (2010) Belgium (2010) Egypt (2010) USA (2011) Poland (2010) EU (2010) Bulgaria (2010) France (2010) Algeria (2009) Portugal (2010) Hungary (2010) Greece (2010) Columbia (2010) Jordan (2010) Libya (2005) Tunisia (2009) Lithuania (2010) Albania (2010) Ireland (2010) Latvia (2011) Slovakia (2010) Iraq (2009) Croatia (2010) Estonia (2010) Spain (2010) South Africa (2010) Honduras (2007) Unemployment levels (%) in some countries of the world

13 Dynamics of unemployment in Egypt, (%%) 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%

14 Inequality?

15 35 Inequality (Gini Index) dynamics in Egypt,

16 Denmark Japan Sweden Norway Finland Germany Belarus Bulgaria Bangladesh Slovenia Egypt France Albania Tajikistan Ireland Tanzania Spain Algeria Italy United Kingdom New Zealand India Jordan Yemen Viet Nam Iran Israel Senegal United States Georgia Tunisia Morocco China Russia Philippines Uruguay Congo Nepal Kenya Brazil South Africa Haiti Botswana Namibia 80 Level of inequality (Gini Index),

17 Poverty?

18 Poverty: per cent of population below $1 a day income poverty line

19 4,5 Population below $1.25 a day income poverty line (%), dynamics in Egypt, ,5 3 2,5 2 1,

20 Slovenia Estonia Egypt Morocco Tunisia Venezuela Armenia Mexico Brazil Peru Bolivia Georgia Sri Lanka China Yemen Kenya Mauritania Tajikistan Viet Nam Philippines South Africa Indonesia Senegal Timor-Leste Ethiopia India Laos Uzbekistan Bangladesh Haiti Nepal DRC Chad Nigeria Niger Guinea Mozambique Burundi Liberia Population below $1.25 a day income poverty line (%)

21 Poverty: per cent of population below $2 a day income poverty line

22 S.Korea Slovenia Russia Estonia Croatia Belarus Chile Bulgaria Romania Jordan Malaysia Venezuela Argentina Thailand Tunisia Morocco Kazakhstan Egypt Algeria Moldova Georgia China Sri Lanka Kenya South Africa Armenia Philippines Yemen Viet Nam Mongolia Turkmenistan Tajikistan Kyrgyzstan Pakistan Senegal Cambodia Haiti India Sierra Leone Uzbekistan Laos Timor-Leste Nepal Bangladesh Nigeria Niger Guinea Liberia Population below $2 a day income poverty line (%)

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24 How the real Third World poverty looks like: Kibera (Nairobi, Kenya)

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30 ТЕМ НЕ МЕНЕЕ, КАКОЕ-ТО ВЛИЯНИЕ ДИНАМИКА БЕДНОСТИ ВСЁ-ТАКИ ОКАЗАЛА ПАРАДОКС Гамала Сиама и Ханади Мустафы Абд ар- Ради

31 авг 11, 1987 май 07, 1990 янв 31, 1993 окт 28, 1995 июл 24, 1998 апр 19, 2001 янв 14, 2004 окт 10, 2006 июл 06, 2009

32 , , , ,5 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan Dynamics of the world wheat prices, $/ton,

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37 FAO Global Cooking Oil Price Index ( =100, deflated)

38 FAO Global General Food Price Index ( =100, deflated)

39 Population below $2 a day income poverty line (%), dynamics in Egypt,

40 Динамика мировых цен на продовольствие (общий индекс цен на продовольствие ФАО, = 100, с учетом инфляции), январь 2003 май 2011 гг Июнь 2011 Май 2011 Апрель 2011 Март 2011 Февраль 2011 Январь 2011 Декабрь 2010 Ноябрь 2010 Октябрь 2010 Сентябрь 2010 Август 2010 Июль 2010

41 Процент россиян, ответивших «Испытываю» на вопрос «Вы лично испытываете или не испытываете недовольство, готовность участвовать в акциях протеста?», данные в % от всех опрошенных, ноябрь 2009 июль 2011 г.

42 Процент россиян, ответивших «Выросли» на вопрос «По Вашему мнению, за последний месяц цены на основные продукты, товары и услуги в целом выросли, снизились или почти не изменились», данные в % от всех опрошенных, ноябрь 2009 июль 2011 г.

43 SUBSIDIES

44 Dynamics of per capita daily calorie intake in Egypt, , kcal/capita/day

45 Dynamics of life expectancy at birth in Egypt, , years

46 Dynamics of crude death rate (per 1000) in Egypt,

47 Dynamics of crude death and birth rates (per 1000) in Egypt, , log scale Death rate Birth rate 5

48 Population of Egypt, thousands, BCE 2005 CE

49 Population of Egypt, thousands,

50 Dynamics of absolute population growth rates, Egypt, (thousands of people per year)

51 Dynamics of infant (per 1000 live births) and under-5 child mortality, Egypt, Infant mortality Under-5 mortality 0

52 11,0% Dynamics of youth cohort (aged 20-24) proportion in the Egyptian population, (with forecast till 2020) 10,5% 10,0% 9,5% 9,0% 8,5% 8,0%

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54 Dynamics of young (20-24 years old) population in Egypt, thousands