,1967 1, , ( :100007) (,, ),CD (, ,DC CD (, sucker ), DC > CD,DD CD ( ,,, DC > DD > CD,CC CD (CC > CD)

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1 ; ( ) D822 ; F A (2000) ( ) CC( ) DC ( ) CD ( ) DD( ) DC CD ( sucker ) DC > CD DD CD ( ) DC > DD > CD CC CD (CC > CD) CC > DC > DD > CD ; DC > CC > DD > CD ;DC > DD > CC > CD CC > DC > DD > CD (Stag hunt) ( A) ( ) (absolute gain) (coop2 eration C) (defect D) 24

2 (relative gain) (1) ( ) 3 1 a ; (2) b ; (3) ( CC) (DD) c 1 (NASH) ; (4) () DD d 1 (strictly dominant strategy) (1) A (Stag hunt) CC(4 4) CD(1 3) DC(3 1) DD(2 2) DC > CC > DD > CD ( Prisoner s Dilemma) ( B) d 2 a + b + c 1 + d 1 f + g + h + c 2 + d 2 a + b + c 1 + d 1?f + g + h + c 2 + d 2 Nash B ( Prisoner s Dilemma) CC(3 3) CD(1 4) DC(4 1) DD(2 2) f ; (2) g ; (3) h ; (4) c 2 ; (5) () a + b + (c 1 - c 2 ) + (d 1 - d 2 )?f + g + h DC > DD > CC > CD (Dead2 Kenneth N. Waltz Theory of International Politics ( Reading M. A. Addision - Wesley 1979) p Robert Powell Absolute and Rela2 lock ) ( C) tive Gains in International Relations Theory A merican Politics Science Re2 view Vol. 85 (December 1991) pp (DD) Joseph Grieco Robert Powell & Dun2 can Sindal Research Controversy The Relative Gains Problem For Inter2 national Cooperation A merican Political Science Review Vol. 87 (March 1993) pp Waltz ( Waltz p. 105) C (Deadlock I) George Downs David M. Rocke & Randolph M. Siverson Arms Race and Cooperation in Kenneth Oye ed. Cooperation under A narchy CC(2 2) CD(1 4) ( Princeton N.J. Princeton University Press 1986) pp ; Harris Wagner The Theory of Games and the Problem of International Coopera2 DC(4 1) DD(3 3) tion A merican Political Science Review Vol. 77 (1983) pp James Morrow Game Theory f or Political Scientists ( Princeton N. J. Princeton University Press 1990). ( ) ( ) CC > John Herz (1950) Idealist Interna2 tionalists and the Security Dilemma Worl d Politics Vol. 2 (January DD DD > CC 1950) pp ; Robert Jervis Cooperation under the Security DilemmaWorl d Politics Vol. 30 (January 1978 ) pp ; Charles Glaser Political Consequences of Military Strategy Expanding and Refining the Spiral and Deterrence Models Worl d Politics V ol. 44 ( J uly 1992) pp ; Charles L. Glaser The Security Dilem2 ma Revisited Worl d Politics V ol. 50 ( October 1997) pp ;

3 80 ; h a b f g (c 1 - c 2 ) (d 1 - d 2 ) h a a + b + c 1 + d 1 (28 %) < f + g + h + c 2 + d 2 CC < DD b f ( ) (1) ; (2) ; (3) g ; (4) () ( ) c 1 - c 2 J. Mohan Malik China - India Relations in the Post - Soviet () Era The Continuing Rivalry The Chi na Quarterly No. 142 ( J une 1995) pp clear Weapons Mai nst ream (New Delhi) Vol. XXXVII No. 22 (May ) pp () The Economist Intelligence Unit ( EIU) Count ry Prof ile India and Nepal (1999). d 1 - d 2 17 No. 2 ( Feb ) pp ; Anand K. Sahay Future of Shangri - La The Hi ndustan Ti mes Jan http / / www2. hindustantimes. com/ ht/ nonfram/ / detopi01. htm. 26 Nerville Maxwell China s Aggression in 1962 and India s Nu2 John Cherian L affaire Karmapa Frontli ne (New Delhi) Vol.

4 ( ) TA T(tit - for - tat) TA T TA T ; TA T TA T ( ) CC > DD DD > CC TA T (2 3) (1 4) (4 1) (3 2) ( ) (2 4) (1 3) (4 1) (3 2) Rakshat Puri Exchanges with China The Hi ndustan Ti mes May http / / www2. hindustantimes. com/ ht/ nonfram/ / detopi02. htm. Ross H. Munro The Loser India in the Nineties N ational In2 terest Summer 1993 pp Robert Axelord Evol ution of Cooperation ( New York N. Y. Basic Books 1984). 27

5 \ ( de facto) TA T( ) TA T (dynamic game tree) ( ) ( ) TA T Matthew Evangelista Internal and External Constraints on TA T Grand Strategy the Soviet Case in Richard Rosecrane and Author Stein ed. The Domestic Bases of Grand St rategy ( Ithaca N. Y. Cornell Univer2 ; ( ) Neville Maxwell India s China War London Jonathan Cape 1970) ; Allen S. Whiting Chinese Calculus of Deterrence India and Indochina ( Ann Arbor M. I. University of Michigan Press ; 1975). Munro Ross H. Munro The Loser India in the Nineties op. cit. 19 Christopher Layne Christopher Layne From Preponderance to Off2 shore Balancing America s Future Grand Strategy International Securi2 ty Vol. 22 No. 1 (Summer 1997) pp Charles A. Kupchan After Pax - Americana Benign Power Regional Integration and the Sources of Stable Multipolarity International Security Vol. 23 No. 3 ( Fall 1998) pp ( ) 28 sity Press 1993) pp

6 (1) ; (2) ; (3) ; (4) ( ) gλυ 1999 [ ] [ ] [ ] Stephen M. Walt ( Waltz ) Stephen Walt The Origin of A lliances ( Itha2 ca N. Y. Cornell University Press 1987). ( Gujarat Doctrine) 1999 Taylor Marshall L os A ngeles Ti mes Braham Chellaney Reapprochement gone sour The Hi ndustan Ti mes Dec www2. hindustantimes. com/ ht/ nonfram/ / ( ) detopi01. htm ( misperception) Giri Deshinghar A defensive strategy Frontli ne? (New Delhi) Vol.. 16 No. 21 ( October ). http / / www. the - hindu. com/ fline/ fl1621/ htm. Srikanth Kondapalli China s Response to the Kargil Incident St rategic A nalysis (New Delhi) Vol. 23 No. 6 (September 1999) pp Swaran Singh The Kargil Conflict Why and How of China s Neutrality St rategic A nalysis ( New Delhi) Vol. 23 No. 7 (October 1999) pp George Perkovich quoted ina Bomb is Born Newsweek Inter2 national January www. newsweek. com. B. M. Chengappa India - China Relations issues and implica2 tions St rategic A nalysis (New Delhi) Vol. 16 No. 1 (April 1993) p. 39. Robert Jervis System Ef f ects Com plexity i n Polit2 ical and Social L if e ( Princeton N. J. Princeton University Press 1997) pp Bhabani Sen Gupta Vaipayee s Foreign Policy who to engage and who not to Mainst ream (New Delhi) Vol. XXXVII No. 47 (Nov ) p. 9. gλυ Swaran Singh Sino - India Ties Need for Bold Initiatives St rategic A nalysis (New Delhi) Vol. XXII No. 11 ( Feb. 1999) pp