2011 11 * :, 1993 2010, :⑴,, ;⑵,,, : :,,510642;,,510642;,,,100084 : F293.35 : A : 1002-8102 (2011)11-0105-07 (Rent-PriceRatio, ), (Meese Walace,1994),, (MeanReversion),,,, ( 1),2003,, 1, 2,, * ( :09YJA790074) ( :70672024 70973065) 211 (2011211TD01) 1 46.9% 2 2010, 70.9% 72.8% 63.4%,, 1 525,, (,2009) 105
Finance & Trade Economics,No.11,2011 :⑴, 1, ⑵,,,, :⑴ Clark(1995) 19501980 10,,,,,, Capozza Seguin(1996) Clark(1995),,, 1, (1993Q2-2010Q1) :,, (Dise- quilibrium Component), 2,,, ⑵ Mankiw Weil(1989),, Galin(2008) 1970 2005,, ;,,,, Plazzi (2010) 1994-2003 53, ;, 1 ; (Smith,1988) 2 106
2011 11 ( ) 1., (P) (UserCost) (V)(Jorgenson,1963,Poterba,1984)( -1), P -2, V = P UC (1) V P =UC (2) Galin(2008), -2 : V t = (r t +τ t p )(1-τ t)+λt y +δt -E tg t+1 (3) P t,t,r t,τ t p,τ t y,λt,δt,e tg t+1,galin C t, : C t = (i t +τ t p )(1-τ t)+δt y (4), -3-4 ( ),, 1, -3 : V t =r t +Λt +δt -E tg t+1 (5) P t,, -5 (Mishkin,2007;Campbel,2009), ((1-LTV t ) rf ) (LTV tr t m ) -5 r t ( -6), (1-LTV t ) rf t +LTV tr t m (C t )( -7) V t P t = (1-LTV t ) rf t +LTV tr m t +Λt +δt -E tg t+1 (6) C t = (1-LTV t ) rf t +LTV tr m t (7),LTV t, (1-LTV t ), rf t,r t m Galin(2008) C t, C t δt, 2., : :v t+n -v t =α0(v t+n-4 -v t-4 )+α1(v-p) t +α2c t +η (8) t :pt+n -pt =β 0 (pt+n-4 -pt-4)+β (v-p) 1 t +β 2C t + ξ (9) t, ;n ; η t ξ t Galin (2008),Campbel Shiler(2001) Mark(1995), t 1 2011 1 28, (PropertyTax) 107
Finance & Trade Economics,No.11,2011, 1, ( 4 ) -6,, 2 ( ) 1. (pt) (v t ), 1993, 1993 2010,, CPI ( -10, -11) 3 pt =lnp t -lncpi t (10) v t =lnv t -lncpi t (11) 2. (v-p) t, 3. (C t ) LTV t 80%, rf t rt m (htp://www.pbc.gov.cn/),, ; 3 6 9 12 ; 4. (Δpt) (Δv t ) : Δpt = (pt+n -pt) (12) Δv t = (v t+n -v t ) (13), n ( ) 2 ( ) 4,, 2,, 2, 1 2 3, CPI CPI, CPI CPI, 1993 9 108 Galin(2008),,,,, ( ), 3 6 9 12 CPI 4 ( ), 1~7, 4, ( ),, 4 ( ),,
2011 11 1 1 2 ( ) :(1), ;(2) ( ), -8-9 0.037-0.571-0.304 0.159 0.062-0.690-0.327 0.223-0.024-0.454-0.247 0.120 ( ) 0.050-0.674-0.258 0.194-8 -9 0.563-0.216 0.056 0.218 ( 1) 1 0.750-0.393-0.008 0.281, 0.746-0.318 0.031 0.366, 0.709-0.434-0.050 0.365, 0.157-1.846-0.749 0.535 0.000-2.085-0.903 0.507, (v-p) t 0.065-1.373-0.421 0.353 0.065-1.041-0.444 0.278, 0.107-0.137 0.031 0.049 C t 0.107-0.137 0.031 0.049 0.107-0.137 0.031 0.049, 0.107-0.137 0.031 0.049 ( ) vt+16 -vt pt+16 -pt 1., -8, -9 ADF(AugmentDickey-Fuler), 2,v t+16 -v t pt+16 -pt (v-p) t C t, 2. EG -8-9 (Ordi- 1, ( ),, (2009) 109
Finance & Trade Economics,No.11,2011 naryleastsquares,ols) -8-9, ADF, 3 2 vt+16 -vt pt+16 -pt (v-p) t C t -1.292 (-2.920) -0.892 (-2.920) -1.926 (-2.920) -1.689 (-2.920) -5.584 ** -6.407 ** -8.522 ** -6.068 ** 0.479 (-2.920) 0.479 (-2.920) 0.166 (-2.920) -0.468 (-2.920) -7.935 ** -7.310 ** -7.984 ** -5.927 ** -2.881 (-3.478) -1.422 (-3.478) -0.336 (-3.478) -1.259 (-3.478) -7.274 ** (-3.479) -8.765 ** (-3.479) -8.936 ** (-3.479) -7.899 ** (-3.479) -1.769-1.769-1.769-1.769-5.722 ** -5.722 ** -5.722 ** -5.722 ** :(1) ** 5% ;(2) ;⑶,, ;, 3 vt+12 -vt-4 (v-p) t C t pt+12 -pt-4 OLS -0.027 (0.817) -0.253 *** -0.406 *** -0.609 *** -0.243 (0.500) 0.664 *** -0.093*** (0.005) -1.275 *** -0.690 (0.211) 0.244 (0.281) 0.658 *** -0.126 (0.114) 1.236 *** -0.510 *** -0.406 *** -0.239 *** -3.632 ** -2.725 * ADF (0.038) (0.077) (0.001) -2.194 ** (0.029) (0.007) -2.395 ** (0.018) -0.045 (0.836) -0.587 (0.293) 1.028 *** 0.089 (0.114) -2.459 ** (0.015) 0.262 ** (0.023) -0.427 *** (0.001) 0.267 (0.291) -0.299 *** -2.207 ** (0.028) 0.518 ** (0.029) 1.205 * (0.066) 1.048 *** 0.207 *** (0.005) -3.292 * (0.082) 0.604 *** -0.300 ** (0.024) -0.108 (0.722) -0.160 *** (0.008) -2.115 ** (0.034) Adj.R 2 0.841 0.887 0.732 0.819 0.824 0.601 0.843 0.787 :(1) *** ** * 1% 5% 10% ;(2) P 3,, :, Capozza Seguin(1996) Mankiw Weil(1989),,, -0.253-0.609,, 1%, 0.253% 0.609%,,, Galin(2008), 1%, 0.518%,, 110
, ;,,,, Clark(1995) Galin(2008) ( ), 1%, 0.406% 0.427% 0.300%,,, 2011 11,⑴, ; ⑵,, :⑴,, ⑵,,,, ⑶,, :⑴,, ;⑵ : 1. : :, 2009 10 2. : 59, 2009 11 19 3.Campbel,J.Y.andShiler,R.J.,ValuationRatiosandtheLong-RunStock MarketOutlook:AnUpdate.NBEB Working Paper,No.1295,2001. 4.Campbel,S.D.,Davis,M.A.,Galin,J.,and Martin,R.F.,WhatMovesHousing Markets:A VarianceDecomposition oftherent-priceratio.journalof Urban Economics,Vol.66,No.2,2009,pp.90-102. 5.Capozza,D.R.andSeguin,P.J.,Expectations,Eficiency,andEuphoriaintheHousing Market.RegionalScienceand Urban Economics,26,1996,pp.369-385. 6.Clark,T.E.,RentsandPricesofHousingAcrossAreasoftheUnitedStates:A Cross-SectionExaminationofthePresent ValueModel.RegionalScienceand Urban Economics,25,1995,pp.237-247. 7.Galin,J.,TheLong-RunRelationshipBetween HousePricesandRents.RealEstateEconomics,Vol.36,No.4,2008, pp.635-659. 8.Jorgenson,Dale W.,CapitalTheoryandInvestmentBehavior.American Economic Review,Vol.53,No.2,1963, pp.247-259. 9.Mankiw,G.N.,and Weil,D.N.,TheBabyBoom,theBabyBustandtheHousing Market.RegionalScienceand Urban Economics,19,1989,pp.235-258. 10.Mark,N.C.,ExchangeRatesandFundamentals:EvidenceonLong-HorizonPredictability.American Economic Re- view,vol.85,no.1,1995,pp.201-218. 11.Meese,R.and WalaceN.E.,TestingthePresentValueRelationforHousingPrices:ShouldILeaveMyHouseinSan Francisco Journalof Urban Economics,Vol.35,No.3,1994,pp.245-266. 12.Mishkin,F.S.,HousingandtheMonetaryTransmission Mechanism.NBER WorkingPaper,No.13518,2007. 13.Poterba,J.,TaxSubsidiestoOwnerOccupiedHousing:AnAssetMarketApproach.Quarterly Journalof Economics, Vol.99,No.4,1984,pp.729-752. 14.Plazzi,A.,Torous,W.,andValkanov,R.,ExpectedReturnsandtheExpectedGrowthinRentsofCommercialReal Estate.The Review of FinanceStudies,Vol.23,No.9,2010,pp.3469-3591. 15.Smith,L.B.,Rosen,K.T.,andFalis,G.,RecentDevelopmentsinEconomicModelsofHousing Market.Journalof Economic Literature,Vol.26,No.1,1988,pp.29-64. : 111
Finance & Trade Economics No.11,2011 FrameworkofComprehensivePerformanceEvaluation ongovernmentinvestmentinchina BasedonAl-roundViewfrom MacroeconomicPolicy DecisiontoCompleteProjectPeriod JIA Kang,SHIYinghua (ResearchInstituteforFiscalScience,MinistryofFinance,100142) Combiningwith demandsofseekingforfiscalperformanceas welasscientificandelaborate management,thepaperproposesthatanassessmentframeworkofsixlevels/linksshouldbe establishedforcomprehensivebenefitofgovernmentinvestmentinbuildingpublicfinancesystem with Chinesecharacteristic,based on al-round view from macroeconomicpolicy decisionto completeprojectperiod.it would providetheory supportforconstructing specificindicator systemandpreparingperformancebudgetinfuture. Keywords:FiscalFund,GovernmentInvestment,ComprehensivePerformanceEvaluation AnalysisonDevelopmentofFinancialAccounting in2008snaandissuesforfurtherresearch CHEN Menggen (InstituteofNationalAccounts,BeijingNormalUniversity,100875) ThedevelopmentoffinancialaccountingisoneofthesignificantcontributionsoftheSystem of NationalAccounts2008 (2008SNA).The maindevelopmentsoffinancialaccountingin2008 SNAfalintosuchaspectsasconceptions,classification,methodsofoutputmeasurement,and treatmentofspecificitems.thesenew developmentsinvolve wide-rangedandhaveimportant influencesonthe methods,proceduresandresultsoffinancialaccounting.someofthe main aggregatesandoutputmeasurementsforfinancialserviceswilbechanged.theharmonization betweenfinancialaccounting under 2008 SNA and otherinternationalstatisticalstandards improvesgreatly.infact,financialaccountingisadevelopingfieldandtherearestil many importantissuesawaitingfurtherresearch. Keywords:2008SNA,FinancialAccounting,FinancialOutput DoesRent-priceRatioFail BasedonanEmpiricalStudyofFourUrbanHousingMarkets LIU Renhe,CHEN Yi(ColegeofEconomicsand Management, SouthChinaAgricultureUniversity,510642) CHEN Yingnan (HangLungCenterforRealEstate,InstituteofRealEstateStudies, TsinghuaUniversity,100084) Basedonhousingusercostmodel,thispaperconstructspredictivemodelsofrentandprice.By usingtime-seriesdataofbeijing,shanghai,guangzhouandshenzhenfromthesecondquarterof 1993tothefirstquarterof2010,itexaminestheabilityofrent-priceratiotopredictfuture changesofrentandprice.empiricalresultsshowthat:⑴therelationshipbetweenrent-price ratioandfuturechangesofpriceinbeijingandguangzhouisnegative,whilethatofshenzhenis positive,andnostatisticalysignificantrelationshipofthetwovariablesisfoundinguangzhou; ⑵ExceptforShanghai,rent-priceratioinBeijing,GuangzhouandShenzhencanpredictfuture changesinrentwithaninverserelationshipbetweenthetwovariables.resultsprovideempirical supportstotheviewthatitshouldbecarefultoapplyrent-priceratioasanindicatortoevaluate China surbanhousingmarket. Keywords:Housing Market,Rent-priceRatio,IndicatorofValuation