:?? 3 :,, : (1) ; (2) ; (3) ; (4), HP,, : 30, Lucas(1976),Kydland Prescott (1982),(DGEM),,,,,? DGEM,, (),,, : (1), Abel Blanchard (1983) Mankiw (1987) Blanchard Fischer (1989) ; (2),,Aschauer Greenwood (1985) Aschauer (1988) Christiano Eichenbaum (1992) Aschansuer Greenwood (1985),,,,, 3,,:200052,:mccai @sjtu. edu. cn,fyfei @sjtu. edu. cn, zhubh @sjtu. edu. cn(05bjl018) (2007BJB026), 78
2009 3, ; (3),,,Barro King (1984) Judd (1985) Baxter King (1993),,, Turnovsky Fisher (1995),, :Aschauer Greenwood (1985) Aschauer (1989,1990) Barro (1990) Barro King (1984) Baxter King (1993) 1 1 Baxter,King Trabandt,Uhlig Mankiw, Matthew Chamley 1993 2006 2006 1986 ln( c t ) + l ln( l t ) + ( G B t, K G t ) Y t = AK k t N N t ( K G t ) c ( c (1 - n) 1 - ) 1-1 - - 1 ( ce v( n) ) 1-1 - - 1 t u ( c t, l t ) y t = z t k t - 1 n 1 - t y = k n 1 -, t = 0 Laffer,, 4 13 0 (), 13,12,5,,(1979 1984 ),,(1985 1997 ) 1985,,, (1998 2003 ),,,,,, (2003 2005 ),, GDP,,, (2004) RBC, (2002) 76 %,, M2 M1(2006),,, ;,5 79
:? :,?,,, 11 : max c t, i t, n t, k t, b t E{ t [ (1 - ) ln c t + (ln < t - n t ) + (1 - ) g ln g t ]} t = 0 s. t. (1 + c t ) c t + i t + q t b t = (1 - t ) t n t + (1 - k t ) + s t + b t - 1, k t = (1 - ) k t - 1 + i t, c < n g g ; k i, : y t = t ( k t - 1 ) 1- ( n t ),,,, : b t - 1 + g t + s t = b t + n t t n t + k t d t k t - 1 + c t c t,,, 21 : t = (1 - ) y t Πn t, d t = y t Πk t - 1 : 1 - = t (1 + c t ) : = < t - t (1 - n t ) t n t Lagarian : L = E{ + [ (1 - ) ln c t + (ln < t - n t ) + (1 - ) g ln g t + t ( (1 + c t ) c t + k t - (1 - ) k t - 1 + - (1 - k t ) d t k t - 1 ) ) ] + t +1 [ (1 - ) ln c t +1 + (ln < t +1 - n t +1 ) + (1 - ) g ln g t +1 + t +1 ( (1 + c t +1 ) c t +1 + k t +1 - (1 - ) k t + - (1 - k t +1) d t +1 k t ) ) ]} : t = E[ t +1 ( y t +1 k t k t + 1) d t + 1 + 1 - c t + 1 - ) ] : R k t + 1 y t + 1 + 1 - = (1 - k t,, Lagarian :1 =E [ t + 1 Π( t q t ) ] 31 AR(1) : ln t = (1 - r ) lng+ r ln+ y, t, : 80 t - 1
2009 3 41,,,: ( y n ) t = ( k n ) t,= 1 - ; gr = (1 - g ) gy gk d t +1 + 1 - ; gr = 1Π= 1Πgq ; gy = ggkgn ; gb + g + gs = gqgb + g n (1 - ) gy + g k gy + g c gc ; 1 - gy = g(1 + g c ) ; = g(1 - g n ) (1 - ) gc g< - gn gn 1978 2004 Solow : y t = t ( k t - 1 ) ( n t ) 1-,ln t = (1 - ) lng+ ln t - 1 +, t, g,, t,, : GDP 20 %,,,,OLS : g t +1 s t +1 = g g t + g, t +1 = s s t + s, t +1 01705 01024, 01312 01178 1995 2005,, 1718 %, GDP,1995 2005 11,1995, GDP, 818 % ;GDP 1 2,1995 2004 1117 %,GDP 1994, 81
:?,, 1995 2004,,,, 38164 % ;,,, 14140 % ;, 2 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 ( ) 85416 87713 94612 107215 122117 155015 ( ) 41413 66014 996 121111 141713 173711 ( ) 8419 1031811 1215118 1345316 1578811 2023415 ( ) 968719 1185518 14094 1573712 1842711 2352211 ( ) 8057914 88254 9572719 10393513 11674112 13658413 1106 % 0199 % 0199 % 1103 % 1105 % 1114 % 0151 % 0175 % 1104 % 1117 % 1121 % 1127 % 10145 % 11169 % 12169 % 12194 % 13152 % 14181 % 12102 % 13143 % 14172 % 15114 % 15178 % 17122 % 3, Baxter King (1993), 3 k l GΠY I G ΠY GDP GDP 015 6157 % 8153 % 01406 01594 01142 01058 Baxter King(1993) 018 615 % 10 % 0142 0158 012 0105,, x t, y t, z t,: x t = Px t - 1 + Qz t, y t = Rx t - 1 + Sz t, z t = Nx t - 1 + t Uhlig(1999), Monte Carlo, Matlab Kydland Prescott (1982),,,,Campbell (1994), Campbell, 0195,017, 82
2009 3 321 1 321 1,,,,,, (2003) Laffont Martimont (2002), 322 1 324 1 % 323 1 %,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 83
:?,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, (2000),,,; ( ), Zeng Zhang (2001),,,,, 3 GDP GDP( t - j) 4-2 - 1 0 1 2 HP - 0159-0145 0161 0162 0112 010063-0144 - 0116 0174 0121-0119 010142-0142 0106 1100 0106-0142 010386-0140 0110 0199 0101-0144 010362-0139 0110 0199 0103-0144 011600-0141 0101 0195 0111-0135 010379-0104 0109 0102-0101 - 0106 010059-0106 0107 0118-0103 - 0119 010057, HP,,(3),GDP, HP 010824,4618 % Hansen (1985), 3, 4 (4), RBC,,,,,,,,, 84
2009 3,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, HP,,,,,,2002 ::,7, 2004 :?,4 :2000 :,,, 2003 : :,4, 2006 ::1978 2004, 8,2003 :,6 Abel, A., and O. Blanchard, 1983,An Intertemporal Equilibrium Model of Saving and Investment, Econometrica 51 : 675 692. Aschauer, David Alan, 1990,Is Government Spending Stimulative?Contemporary Economic Policy, 8 :30 46. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989,Does Public Capital Crowd Out Private Capital? Journal of Monetary Economics, 24 :171 188. Aschauer, David Alan, 1988,The Equilibrium Approach to Fiscal Policy, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 20 :41 62. Aschauer, David Alan, and Greenwood, Jeremy, 1985,Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy, Carnegie2Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 23 : 91 138. Barro, Robert J, 1990,Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth, Journal of Political Economy, 98 : 103 26. Barro, Robert J and King, Robert G, 1984,Time2separable Preferences and Intertemporal Substitution Models of Business Cycles, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 99 : 817 39. Baxter, Marianne & King, Robert G, 1993,Fiscal Policy in General Equilibrium, American Economic Review, 83 :315 34. Blanchard, Olivier J., and Stanley Fischer, 1989, Lectures on Macroeconomics, Cambridge, MIT Press. Campbell, John Y., 1994,Inspecting the Mechanism : An Analytical Approach to the Stochastic Growth Model, Journal of Monetary Economics, 33 :463 506. Chamley, Christophe, 1986,Optimal Taxation of Capital Income in General Equilibrium with Infinite Lives, Econometrica, 54 :607 22. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1992,Liquidity Effects and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism, American Economic Review, 82 :346 53. 319. Hansen, Gary D., 1985,Indivisible Labor and the Business Cycle, Journal of Monetary Economics, 16 : 309 327. Judd, Kenneth L, 1985,Short2run Analysis of Fiscal Policy in a Simple Perfect Foresight Model, Journal of Political Economy, 93 :298 Kydland, Finn and Edward Prescott, 1982,Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations, Econometrica,50 :1345 1370. Laffont, Jean2Jacques and Martimort, David, 2005,The Design of Transnational Public Good Mechanisms for Developing Countries, Journal of Public Economics, 89 :159 196. 9. Lucas, Robert E., Jr., 1976,Econometric Policy Evaluation : a Critique, Carnegie2Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,1 :7 33. Mankiw, N Gregory, 1987,Government Purchases and Real Interest Rates, Journal of Political Economy, 95 : 407 419. Mankiw, N. Gregory &Weinzierl, Matthew, 2006,Dynamic Scoring : A Back2of2the2envelope Guide, Journal of Public Economics, 90 :8 ( 159 ) 85
2009 3 (2008) 10 %,2008,,,,;,, 2007 10 6000 2008 9 1700 ;,,,,,???, (2008) ( 2008 9, ),,2007,,,,,,,2008 4 + 1 + X, ( ) (4 + 1 + X 4 ),2008 (4 + 1 + X X ) (4 + 1 + X 1 ) ( 85 ) Trabandt, Mathias & Uhlig, Harald, 2006,How Far Are We From the Slippery Slope? The Laffer Curve Revisited,CEPR Discussion Papers 5657. Turnovsky, Stephen J. and Fisher, Walter H., 1995,The Composition of Government Expenditure and Its Consequences for Macroeconomic Performance, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, 19 :747 786 Uhlig, Harald, 1999,A Toolkit for Analyzing Nonlinear Dynamic Stochastic Models Easily,in Ramon Marimon and Andrew Scott, eds, Computational Methods for the Study of Dynamic Economies, Oxford University Press, 30 61. Zeng Jinli and Zhang Jie, 2001,Long2run Growth Effects of Taxation in a Non2scale Growth Model with Innovation,Working Paper No. 0104, National University of Singapore. Does Chinese Fiscal Policy Increase Total Social Utility? Cai Mingchao, Fei Fangyu and Zhu Baohua (Antai College of Economics and Management, Shanghai Jiaotong University) Abstract :The paper studies Chinese fiscal policy and aggregate economic Behavior, government sector is added to traditional Real Business Cycle model, exogenous shocks include technology, government transfer, surprising government purchase, and tax policies. The paper draws the following conclusions : 1) Government transfer doesnπt improve aggregate social utility. 2) Government purchase leads to a lower level of employment, investment, consumption and capital accumulation. 3) Capital tax imposes a negative dynamic impact on consumption. 4) After HP filter, government transfer, capital tax, government consumption and consumption tax are consistent with business cycle, which is accordant with Chinese macroeconomics stylized factors. Key Words : Fiscal Policy ; Dynamic Recursive ; Calibration JEL Classification : E22, E62, H62 (: ) ( : ) 159